Risk management is a word that everyone who does trading, often hangs on the lips, but most people tend to just talk about risk management; Unable to actually establish the awareness of risk management, relying too much on intuitive trading, so that it is impossible to achieve long-term use of fixed trading strategies to achieve profit purposes.
Today I will share with you a systematic risk control concept. I hope it will be of some help to your futures trading in the future. Remember to forward and like it~ What should you pay attention to when trading futures?
First of all, the biggest advantage of futures trading is that small funds can be used as margin guarantee transactions, which can control risks more flexibly than spot prices; similarly, the biggest disadvantages of futures trading are the same as the advantages. While using leverage to amplify profits, you need to The risks taken will also be magnified in proportion;
Investors with poor trading experience often use leverage incorrectly (mainly referring to excessive magnification), coupled with psychological instability, they are prone to the following serious situations:
1. Wrong risk managementImproper use of leverage, or operations with a low winning rate or low profit-loss ratio;Many novices tend to ignore the advantages of using leverage, blindly use too high leverage, or too high number of contracts, focusing on the immediate potential profits and ignoring the potential risks brought by leveraged trading, which invisibly magnifies the risks, resulting in Positions are overexposed to risk and liquidated;
2. Immature mentalityLosing money or missing out on the market leads to greed, regret, fear and other negative psychological effects that affect judgment, making it impossible to operate according to the strategy;
3. Gambler’s psychologyAfter losing money in the market, you want to make back the loss through a larger margin. If you make a profit, you want to continue making profits with a larger position; There may also be another situation where the trend reversal is close to the stop loss, but because the position on the market is at a floating loss, you choose to continue to hold the position, going against the trend, resulting in amplified losses, or even liquidation; or when the price has reached a floating profit, The strategy has a profit-taking target, but due to greed, one chooses to continue holding the position, causing the original profit to be taken back or even turn into a loss; In the trading market, retail investors often make too many mistakes and get lost in technical analysis. They pursue the perfect strategy with a 100% winning rate and ignore the implementation of the general principle of stop-profit and stop-loss.
What is risk? Risk is the uncertainty of future investment returns in the trading market. Loss of income, or loss of principal, can be included in investment risk. The characteristics of risk include objective probability, meaning that the risk can be taken to prevent the occurrence, or reduce the loss caused by the occurrence of a risky event, but it is impossible to completely eliminate the risk, because to do so means that we will also eliminate the future gain. This also shows that risk management in the trading market is very necessary and very important.
What is risk management? Risk management and control means taking effective measures to reduce the probability of occurrence of risk events, or effectively reduce the loss caused by risk events after the occurrence of risk events, and control the loss to an acceptable degree. Traders with less trading experience tend to focus too much on technical analysis and trading strategies, and place too much trust in strategic indicators. These traders often inadvertently ignore the probability of the occurrence of risk events, the entire principal as a margin to make a one-time bet trading, such traders, the final result is only death.
Importance of profit-loss ratio
A profit-loss ratio that is too low will result in more losses and less profit.Assuming that our risk management strategy is to set the profit-loss ratio of each transaction to 1:1, we must at least maintain the winning rate of the transaction above 50% to ensure stable profits for the position;If the profit and loss ratio is set to 1:1, for any transaction we should ensure that the profit and loss ratio is greater than or equal to 1:1 before entering the market. Otherwise, even if the winning rate is high, the effective profit and loss ratio cannot be achieved. It may also cause a large profit retracement or even loss after a loss occurs.
A higher profit-loss ratio in the trading strategy can effectively make up for the problem of lower than 50% winning rate in trading;
for example: In an account with 10,000 USDT, each transaction uses 1% of the position as the cost (100 USDT), and the profit and loss ratio is controlled at 1:3. In 10 transactions, there will be an average of 4 take-profits and the remaining 6 losses. purely looking at the winning rate, the trading winning rate is only 40%. Such a result is definitely unsatisfactory.
However, based on the profit-loss ratio combined with the winning rate, the average overall profit for 10 transactions falls within:(100USDT (1% cost)*3 (profit-loss ratio)*4 profits) — (100USDT (1% cost)*1*6 losses)=1200USDT-600USDT=600USDT
We can see that with a trading strategy that controls the profit and loss ratio at 1:3 each time and uses 1% of the total position as a cost, although the winning rate is only 40%, we can also get a 6% return in every 10 transactions. The most important thing is that even if a loss occurs, only 1% of the positions bear the risk of loss.
This is also why we pursue a high profit-loss ratio. Only a high profit-loss ratio + a high winning rate can achieve effective compound interest.
Summarize
In the trading market, risk management accounts for at least 80% of the importance, and the remaining 20% is the trading system and strategy. Avoid blindly pursuing technical analysis and indicators, strictly implement basic skills and risk control, and avoid gambling operations such as heavy positions and full positions. The long-term stability of position funds is the correct trading direction.
The futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended that investors strictly implement risk management. Only by surviving in the trading market can we have the opportunity to achieve more trading goals.
A new short position has been activated at the lower edge of the wedge, currently yielding a 2000-point volatility spread.
You can manage your position more conservatively.
Short-term support is at the overlap of the green buy zone and the yellow support zone (86800-87800). #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Wolf_king88
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Bearish
📊#BTC Rising Wedge📉
🧠From a structural perspective, the daily chart correction is not yet over. Currently, it's within the blue resistance zone, so we still need to maintain a cautious approach.
➡️From a chart perspective, a rising wedge has gradually formed within the blue resistance zone. We generally use this model for corrections.
⚠️If we break through the blue resistance zone, it will turn into a support zone. Only then, with a suitable pullback, can we look for long trading opportunities.
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🧠From a structural perspective, the daily chart correction is not yet over. Currently, it's within the blue resistance zone, so we still need to maintain a cautious approach.
➡️From a chart perspective, a rising wedge has gradually formed within the blue resistance zone. We generally use this model for corrections.
⚠️If we break through the blue resistance zone, it will turn into a support zone. Only then, with a suitable pullback, can we look for long trading opportunities.
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Bearish
📊#BTC Retests Resistance Zone⚠️
🧠As expected, the market found support near the short-term support level of 85358 and rebounded well. Currently, the price has retested the blue resistance zone. We should be wary of a potential pullback, so chasing the price higher here is not recommended. Instead, look for opportunities to short.
⚠️Note that if we successfully break through the blue resistance zone, we need to be cautious of a further surge.
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🧠As expected, the market found support near the short-term support level of 85358 and rebounded well. Currently, the price has retested the blue resistance zone. We should be wary of a potential pullback, so chasing the price higher here is not recommended. Instead, look for opportunities to short.
⚠️Note that if we successfully break through the blue resistance zone, we need to be cautious of a further surge.
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Bullish
📊#BTC Continues Deepening Correction?
🧠From a structural perspective, we are still in a daily-level correction phase, with a short-term downtrend. Therefore, until a bullish structure is established within the same timeframe, we need to be wary of further pullbacks. We can only maintain an optimistic outlook after reversing the blue resistance zone.
➡️Therefore, short-term support is around 85358. If we continue to break below the low L, then we need to pay attention to the next support zone at 69000-74500.
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, we are still in a daily-level correction phase, with a short-term downtrend. Therefore, until a bullish structure is established within the same timeframe, we need to be wary of further pullbacks. We can only maintain an optimistic outlook after reversing the blue resistance zone.
➡️Therefore, short-term support is around 85358. If we continue to break below the low L, then we need to pay attention to the next support zone at 69000-74500.
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, we are still in a daily-level correction phase, with a short-term downtrend. Therefore, until a bullish structure is established within the same timeframe, we need to be wary of further pullbacks. We can only maintain an optimistic outlook after reversing the blue resistance zone.
➡️Therefore, short-term support is around 85358. If we continue to break below the low L, then we need to pay attention to the next support zone at 69000-74500.
Let's see 👀
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Bullish
📊Is the #BTC rally over? 📈
🧠From a structural point of view, the short structure at the daily level is still intact, and the ideal target area has not yet been realized, which means that the adjustment at the daily level is not over yet. So I think the current rise is just a rebound stage, but it has not yet touched the resistance zone near 93,000, so I think there is still the possibility of continuing to rebound.
➡️Therefore, we can look for some short-term support to participate in some long positions, such as around 83400-84400.
⚠️Note that short-term bulls are in a contrarian stage, so please be sure to do risk management.
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🧠From a structural point of view, the short structure at the daily level is still intact, and the ideal target area has not yet been realized, which means that the adjustment at the daily level is not over yet. So I think the current rise is just a rebound stage, but it has not yet touched the resistance zone near 93,000, so I think there is still the possibility of continuing to rebound.
➡️Therefore, we can look for some short-term support to participate in some long positions, such as around 83400-84400.
⚠️Note that short-term bulls are in a contrarian stage, so please be sure to do risk management.
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🧠From a structural perspective, we are approaching the key weekly support level around 74508, which is also an ideal target area for a bearish structure. Therefore, if the price reaches this level directly, we can confidently enter the market.
➡️The recent resistance level is around 93000. If we break through the turning point of 93160 first, we might look for long trading opportunities after a pullback.
⚠️It's nearing the end of the month, so let's be patient. ☕️
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🧠From a structural perspective, we are in a bearish structure and downtrend. However, we have been consolidating sideways for a long time between the yellow support line and the blue S/R line, so the probability of a further continuation of the downtrend is decreasing.
➡️From a chart perspective, we have formed a falling wedge, which has now successfully broken through the upper edge of the wedge and retested the support there. If it holds, we may see another surge.
⚠️We are currently in a risk-free state, and I hope to see a breakout above the blue S/R zone.
Let's see 👀
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🧠In the previous post, we discussed the need to be wary of the "sell the news" effect after the release of interest rate cut expectations! As expected, the market experienced a significant pullback, testing the two support levels I was watching (109000, 106621). The rebounds after touching these support levels have already occurred, indicating a significant success rate.
➡️From a structural perspective, it's reasonable that we broke below the bullish defense point (106621) and then experienced a sharp rebound after capturing the bullish liquidity there. However, this also implies the emergence of expectations for a medium-term correction, so we should be wary of a deeper correction. New bullish expectations will only emerge after we patiently wait for a breakout above the gray S/R level.
➡️Currently, our long positions have locked in major profits. Shorting opportunities will need to be sought after a further price rebound.
Let's see 👀
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Bearish
📊How should we respond to the FOMC?
🧠Yesterday, we failed to break through the gray resistance zone (S/R), instead forming a double-top bearish structure in this area. Therefore, our long position opened at the 4-hour neckline support has already hit our cost price and been closed. After a pullback, it tested the 1-hour neckline support and the black descending trendline, and a rebound occurred, but we didn't see a strong upward move, so we closed our long position here as well.
➡️The expectation of a rate cut has already been priced in during the upward movement, so we should be wary of (sell the news)!
➡️If we cannot hold the current support, then we need to be wary of a deeper pullback. The next support level to watch is around 109000, and the extreme support level to watch is the bulls' defense point (106621).
Let's see 👀
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🧠Yesterday, we failed to break through the gray resistance zone (S/R), instead forming a double-top bearish structure in this area. Therefore, our long position opened at the 4-hour neckline support has already hit our cost price and been closed. After a pullback, it tested the 1-hour neckline support and the black descending trendline, and a rebound occurred, but we didn't see a strong upward move, so we closed our long position here as well.
➡️The expectation of a rate cut has already been priced in during the upward movement, so we should be wary of (sell the news)!
➡️If we cannot hold the current support, then we need to be wary of a deeper pullback. The next support level to watch is around 109000, and the extreme support level to watch is the bulls' defense point (106621).
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, it's reasonable to see resistance at the gray S/R resistance zone and a pullback. However, bullish patterns are present on the long-term charts and on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with targets yet to be reached. Therefore, we should seek support to enter a long trade.
➡️We are currently testing the 4-hour neckline support, which is considered aggressive.
➡️More robust support is near the intersection of the 1-hour neckline and the black descending trendline S/R.
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, it's reasonable to see resistance at the gray S/R resistance zone and a pullback. However, bullish patterns are present on the long-term charts and on both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, with targets yet to be reached. Therefore, we should seek support to enter a long trade.
➡️We are currently testing the 4-hour neckline support, which is considered aggressive.
➡️More robust support is near the intersection of the 1-hour neckline and the black descending trendline S/R.
Let's see 👀
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We successfully tested last week's high of 115,867 and saw a corresponding pullback, indicating a short scalping opportunity has materialized.
However, today's price didn't directly reach the overlapping resistance zone, so we can only participate in short trades if we find a short structure within the same timeframe (if there's no such opportunity, we'll just have to remain patient).
Alternatively, we can wait for the price to flip above the S/R ratio and reach the next overlapping resistance zone around 120,000 before looking for short trading opportunities.
As for long trading opportunities, since no suitable pullback has occurred, we can only wait. #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Wolf_king88
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Bullish
📊Can #BTC continue to rise?
🧠From a structural perspective, the long-term trend remains bullish, so any upward movement is justified! Based on the current structure, we've broken through the blue downtrend resistance line and are poised to test last week's high of 115,867. This doesn't make it suitable for short trades, but the profit-loss ratio for chasing gains isn't ideal either, so for now, we can only remain patient and wait for new trading opportunities!
➡️If the price reaches the overlapping resistance zone tomorrow, we can look for short scalping opportunities.
➡️If the price pulls back instead of rising tomorrow, we'll need to look for long trades at lower levels.
⚠️Note that there's a chance the price will continue to challenge the ATH, so shorting is considered counter-trend trading, so please ensure proper risk management.
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🧠From a structural perspective, the long-term trend remains bullish, so any upward movement is justified! Based on the current structure, we've broken through the blue downtrend resistance line and are poised to test last week's high of 115,867. This doesn't make it suitable for short trades, but the profit-loss ratio for chasing gains isn't ideal either, so for now, we can only remain patient and wait for new trading opportunities!
➡️If the price reaches the overlapping resistance zone tomorrow, we can look for short scalping opportunities.
➡️If the price pulls back instead of rising tomorrow, we'll need to look for long trades at lower levels.
⚠️Note that there's a chance the price will continue to challenge the ATH, so shorting is considered counter-trend trading, so please ensure proper risk management.
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We quickly recovered after breaking below support at 107,400, and the hourly close above the gray support area suggests this support level still holds. We're currently testing this support level again, so we've taken another shot at a long position.
Let's see if this plays out as expected. 👀 #Wolf_king88 $BTC
Wolf_king88
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Bullish
📊 #BTC retests support at 104,000. Can it hold?
🧠From a structural perspective, the pullback after reaching our ideal red target zone makes sense. After the October 11th crash, market liquidity suffered a devastating blow, so we're likely to see some period of sideways consolidation. Therefore, we continued to reduce our holdings after hitting our short defensive point, locking in a total of 80% profit. Our long position has now been closed at our cost price.
➡️This is the third time we've tested support near 107,400. The more times it's tested, the weaker the support becomes. However, don't chase shorts near this support level. Even if you do short, wait for a break below this support level and a rebound before considering a short position.
➡️If the decline continues, support near 105,188 or the solid support at 103,588 (where we last entered a long position) is worth watching.
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, the pullback after reaching our ideal red target zone makes sense. After the October 11th crash, market liquidity suffered a devastating blow, so we're likely to see some period of sideways consolidation. Therefore, we continued to reduce our holdings after hitting our short defensive point, locking in a total of 80% profit. Our long position has now been closed at our cost price.
➡️This is the third time we've tested support near 107,400. The more times it's tested, the weaker the support becomes. However, don't chase shorts near this support level. Even if you do short, wait for a break below this support level and a rebound before considering a short position.
➡️If the decline continues, support near 105,188 or the solid support at 103,588 (where we last entered a long position) is worth watching.
Let's see 👀
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--
Bullish
📊 #BTC retests support✔️
🧠From a structural perspective, we broke out of the divergence zone and retested support near 107,400. While we experienced a pullback as expected, we canceled our short position due to our aggressive short position yesterday.
➡️However, we entered a new long position at support near 107,400. The upward trend is currently positive, and we are attacking the short position. Hopefully, we'll succeed!
Let's see 👀
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🧠From a structural perspective, we broke out of the divergence zone and retested support near 107,400. While we experienced a pullback as expected, we canceled our short position due to our aggressive short position yesterday.
➡️However, we entered a new long position at support near 107,400. The upward trend is currently positive, and we are attacking the short position. Hopefully, we'll succeed!
Let's see 👀
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Bearish
📊#BTC reaches the divergence zone✔️
🧠From a structural perspective, we rebounded from the overlapping support zone at 103588 and continued the bullish trend, gaining over $8,000. We've now reached a critical level where bulls and bears are battling. Since we've already seen strong returns and a pullback is possible, we've closed our long position.
➡️If the price can pull back to and stabilize near the rising trend support line today, we might consider looking for some long positions. There's a desirable red target zone to reach above.
➡️If there's no pullback and we directly attack the bearish defense, we can use a small position to look for some shorts.
⚠️Note: Both ups and downs in the divergence zone are normal. Only after breaking out of this zone can we find suitable trading opportunities. Don't forget risk management!
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