诸葛投研
17年进入币圈的老韭菜，股票持证投资顾问。视频号“诸葛web3投研”，欢迎关注。币安钱包高返佣码：web3BIAN
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Dear bosses, the Binance Web3 wallet has also started charging transaction fees. If you haven't linked an invitation code yet, you can use my invitation code "ZG666" to do so. Existing accounts can also fill it out.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
Currently, you can reduce 30% of the transaction fees, and I can earn a 10% commission. I will permanently keep only 10%, and the more people use it, the higher the rebates I can give everyone in the future. If you feel that my content has been helpful to you, linking the invitation code is the biggest support for me.
How to link: In the Binance App wallet homepage, click "Invite" → click "Enter invitation code" → enter "ZG666" and confirm, and you're all set.
The Hong Kong IPO scene has been buzzing these past few days, and everyone’s posting those charts showing crazy returns. I see a lot of regular folks looking for ways to hop in.
But honestly, it’s not as easy to profit as you might think:
1. Hong Kong IPOs are kind of like Binance Alpha's TGE. The reason people are making bank now is that the market is hot and new stocks are surging, but that's not the norm. For example, in November last year, the new stock delisting rate was 45.5%, and in December, it hit 52.4%.
2. The average chance of getting an allocation in new stocks isn’t as high as everyone claims: in the first quarter of this year, the average allocation rate was 9%, but lesser-known and delisting stocks skewed that number. The allocation rate for popular stocks is actually less than 1%.
3. Last year, there were 118 new stocks in the Hong Kong market, averaging one every 3 days. With a high delisting rate and low allocation rate, those big winners in the charts are actually pretty rare, just like <a>$XPL $NXPC </a> being a rare Alpha gem.
So just participate rationally. I support everyone trying it out, but if you have sky-high expectations, you’re likely to be disappointed.
But honestly, it’s not as easy to profit as you might think:
1. Hong Kong IPOs are kind of like Binance Alpha's TGE. The reason people are making bank now is that the market is hot and new stocks are surging, but that's not the norm. For example, in November last year, the new stock delisting rate was 45.5%, and in December, it hit 52.4%.
2. The average chance of getting an allocation in new stocks isn’t as high as everyone claims: in the first quarter of this year, the average allocation rate was 9%, but lesser-known and delisting stocks skewed that number. The allocation rate for popular stocks is actually less than 1%.
3. Last year, there were 118 new stocks in the Hong Kong market, averaging one every 3 days. With a high delisting rate and low allocation rate, those big winners in the charts are actually pretty rare, just like <a>$XPL $NXPC </a> being a rare Alpha gem.
So just participate rationally. I support everyone trying it out, but if you have sky-high expectations, you’re likely to be disappointed.
Binance Alpha has officially entered a反撸（bearish）cycle: last week there were 2 airdrops, and this week should also see 2 airdrops.
Yesterday, folks were complaining that the booster task for $BTW $ST was giving too little, but today they're saying it looks good.
Today, there might be a Gensyn (AI) Alpha airdrop, as tokens have been sent to Alpha-related addresses for testing transactions. Currently, the pre-market price is: 0.0483, corresponding to an FDV of 4.83 billion. It's speculated that Binance will get a 0.5% share, worth 2.415 million.
Yesterday, folks were complaining that the booster task for $BTW $ST was giving too little, but today they're saying it looks good.
Today, there might be a Gensyn (AI) Alpha airdrop, as tokens have been sent to Alpha-related addresses for testing transactions. Currently, the pre-market price is: 0.0483, corresponding to an FDV of 4.83 billion. It's speculated that Binance will get a 0.5% share, worth 2.415 million.
The market's acting weird right now: everyone thinks $BTC is gonna tank, but it just won't drop. What's the deal?
$ST is really not doing well. I saw the booster task go live yesterday and thought about how it's at least a $500k buy wall, so it should pump. But after jumping in, I've only made a 2% gain so far...
There are only 10,000 people playing the booster, I'm outta here 😂😂
There are only 10,000 people playing the booster, I'm outta here 😂😂
Whoa, it's about to close!
What a clown show this is! An event with over 2 million in trading volume got completely wrecked by a blow dryer, and it was the meteorological agency that made the bust first 😂
And after the exposure, Polymarket just switched the data source from the sensors at Charles de Gaulle Airport to those at Le Bourget Airport... what's the difference?
And after the exposure, Polymarket just switched the data source from the sensors at Charles de Gaulle Airport to those at Le Bourget Airport... what's the difference?
VPN ban recently? Is it targeting Xchat? But honestly, Xchat is kinda weak, check it out:
1. It tried to ride the crypto wave with its encrypted messaging, but got called out hard.
2. Claimed to be ad-free and ultra-secure, which is true, but the app is so basic it’s just a chat page… basically like DMs on Twitter.
3. Plus, logging in is a hassle; it only lets you sign in with a linked X account email. No X account, no access.
4. Many of the hardcore features they promoted were cut down, feels more like a beta version.
1. It tried to ride the crypto wave with its encrypted messaging, but got called out hard.
2. Claimed to be ad-free and ultra-secure, which is true, but the app is so basic it’s just a chat page… basically like DMs on Twitter.
3. Plus, logging in is a hassle; it only lets you sign in with a linked X account email. No X account, no access.
4. Many of the hardcore features they promoted were cut down, feels more like a beta version.
True to her status as the top player, An An's game plan is on point, placing buy orders without leaving a trace. Master Bao is calling for this year's price to hit between $BTC and 250k at the hot pot session, do you believe it?
Aave really dropped the ball, a hacker event wiped out its $10 billion TVL, which honestly could have been avoided:
1. If they had owned up to it right away and said they resolved the issue, at least people would still have some confidence. But they insisted on being stubborn, claiming their risk control mechanisms were solid, and that the loan was justified.
2. Users simply think that lending to hackers means your risk management is lacking; they don't care about your underlying risk control mechanisms. The neighboring exchange has proven: any player trying to educate users will ultimately get dumped by them.
3. If they had decisively promised to cover everyone right away and then discussed how to share the responsibility with other parties, they wouldn't have scared users away. But they wanted to save some cash and hoped other parties would sort out a plan before compensating, missing the golden window to retain users #Aave宣布DeFiUnited救助计划 $ETH $BTC
1. If they had owned up to it right away and said they resolved the issue, at least people would still have some confidence. But they insisted on being stubborn, claiming their risk control mechanisms were solid, and that the loan was justified.
2. Users simply think that lending to hackers means your risk management is lacking; they don't care about your underlying risk control mechanisms. The neighboring exchange has proven: any player trying to educate users will ultimately get dumped by them.
3. If they had decisively promised to cover everyone right away and then discussed how to share the responsibility with other parties, they wouldn't have scared users away. But they wanted to save some cash and hoped other parties would sort out a plan before compensating, missing the golden window to retain users #Aave宣布DeFiUnited救助计划 $ETH $BTC
Yesterday, Pei Peng, who joined web3, delivered his first speech on crypto assets in Hong Kong. It was quite insightful and gave me some ideas for funding sources in the next bull run.
Here's a streamlined version of the key points for you:
1. In the future, major asset allocations will definitely include crypto assets. Before the late 70s, financial institutions didn't accept commodities like mung beans and copper, but with technological advancements, they were gradually incorporated into asset allocations. Today's web3 is just like those commodities back then; it will slowly be integrated into major asset classes.
2. The year 2025 is crucial for web3; it's the year of regulatory compliance. Whether it's the stablecoin legislation or the clarity act, these are already hinting at the future: you'll see Wall Street financial institutions quickly entering this market.
3. The payment function of $BTC has now been stripped by stablecoins. It could become digital gold in the future, serving as a valuable asset with maintenance functionality that can be traded on a large scale.
Here's a streamlined version of the key points for you:
1. In the future, major asset allocations will definitely include crypto assets. Before the late 70s, financial institutions didn't accept commodities like mung beans and copper, but with technological advancements, they were gradually incorporated into asset allocations. Today's web3 is just like those commodities back then; it will slowly be integrated into major asset classes.
2. The year 2025 is crucial for web3; it's the year of regulatory compliance. Whether it's the stablecoin legislation or the clarity act, these are already hinting at the future: you'll see Wall Street financial institutions quickly entering this market.
3. The payment function of $BTC has now been stripped by stablecoins. It could become digital gold in the future, serving as a valuable asset with maintenance functionality that can be traded on a large scale.
$BTC Ramping up on the M120, everyone's shouting that the bull market is back. But my take is to be cautious about chasing highs; I might even sell off a bit of my spot when it peaks, just to play the waves.
1. Yesterday's surge is exactly what I mentioned on the 21st about the ceasefire bringing gains. Initially, I expected a signed agreement, but it turned into an indefinite ceasefire negotiation—a soft landing, so the market is cautiously bullish. Yesterday, we saw a gradual climb throughout the day. Once it was confirmed last night that the temporary ceasefire would hold, and both sides stopped fighting, confidence started to build up.
2. At this point, market fluctuations are no longer tied to the war. If there’s some other good news, we might see another spike. But if not, I feel it might grind for a few days before reverting to the original bear market rhythm and continuing the downturn. The macro environment of inflation hasn't changed.
3. Don’t think that just because we’re above the M120 it’s a bull market. This month's rise is due to the short-term benefits from the US-Iran ceasefire—just a temporary boost in confidence, not a signal for a bull market.
1. Yesterday's surge is exactly what I mentioned on the 21st about the ceasefire bringing gains. Initially, I expected a signed agreement, but it turned into an indefinite ceasefire negotiation—a soft landing, so the market is cautiously bullish. Yesterday, we saw a gradual climb throughout the day. Once it was confirmed last night that the temporary ceasefire would hold, and both sides stopped fighting, confidence started to build up.
2. At this point, market fluctuations are no longer tied to the war. If there’s some other good news, we might see another spike. But if not, I feel it might grind for a few days before reverting to the original bear market rhythm and continuing the downturn. The macro environment of inflation hasn't changed.
3. Don’t think that just because we’re above the M120 it’s a bull market. This month's rise is due to the short-term benefits from the US-Iran ceasefire—just a temporary boost in confidence, not a signal for a bull market.
What do you think about the future market trends? A few points:
1. It's still the same old saying, if the US and Iran continue to fight, the market will drop; if they stop fighting, the market will rise. This underlying logic has been detailed in a previous long article.
2. Currently, when looking at the progress of US-Iran negotiations, don’t pay attention to what they say, but rather what they are doing and what they want. This kind of news is not really directed at the other side but is rather a message to their own people, or we could say to the global public. It does not reflect the real situation.
3. I still believe that both sides will eventually sign a ceasefire agreement. The previous tug-of-war, in my opinion, was merely an attempt to gain leverage at the negotiation table. Leverage is not gained through words, but rather through actual action. Iran claims it can control the Strait of Hormuz, and opening the strait is a significant concession; the US proves it can control it too, and opening the strait is not actually a concession...
I see that some friends are very focused on the differences in negotiations: they say there is no middle ground on enriched uranium, there is no middle ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no middle ground on whether to pay war reparations, etc...
But in fact, public opinion can be glossed over. Its essence is quite similar to buying clothes at a roadside stall, where prices are inflated, and you negotiate on the spot. The so-called conflicts and differences, under the condition that both sides have a demand for a ceasefire, are not a big deal.
The wheels are rolling towards you, and you are only fixated on a big stone ahead, which is meaningless. Because the problem is not significant; it’s just that the ride might be a bit bumpy. $BTC
1. It's still the same old saying, if the US and Iran continue to fight, the market will drop; if they stop fighting, the market will rise. This underlying logic has been detailed in a previous long article.
2. Currently, when looking at the progress of US-Iran negotiations, don’t pay attention to what they say, but rather what they are doing and what they want. This kind of news is not really directed at the other side but is rather a message to their own people, or we could say to the global public. It does not reflect the real situation.
3. I still believe that both sides will eventually sign a ceasefire agreement. The previous tug-of-war, in my opinion, was merely an attempt to gain leverage at the negotiation table. Leverage is not gained through words, but rather through actual action. Iran claims it can control the Strait of Hormuz, and opening the strait is a significant concession; the US proves it can control it too, and opening the strait is not actually a concession...
I see that some friends are very focused on the differences in negotiations: they say there is no middle ground on enriched uranium, there is no middle ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no middle ground on whether to pay war reparations, etc...
But in fact, public opinion can be glossed over. Its essence is quite similar to buying clothes at a roadside stall, where prices are inflated, and you negotiate on the spot. The so-called conflicts and differences, under the condition that both sides have a demand for a ceasefire, are not a big deal.
The wheels are rolling towards you, and you are only fixated on a big stone ahead, which is meaningless. Because the problem is not significant; it’s just that the ride might be a bit bumpy. $BTC
The recent two Alphas are really on fire, $CHIP $OPG have pulled quite a bit, giving everyone a chance to cash out at the top.
When the top dog was answering questions in Hong Kong, she mentioned that they wouldn't give up on Alpha. Essentially, Alpha is the golden ticket for web3 users; unless they can't hold on, it can be used to drive traffic indefinitely.
However, the bear market conditions are pretty rough, so quality projects won't be launching tokens, and low-quality projects are too scared to touch Alpha, which is why it's not making any gains right now.
Maybe the ten-thousand U number is what Binance hopes to see in users. How many brothers are still holding on?
When the top dog was answering questions in Hong Kong, she mentioned that they wouldn't give up on Alpha. Essentially, Alpha is the golden ticket for web3 users; unless they can't hold on, it can be used to drive traffic indefinitely.
However, the bear market conditions are pretty rough, so quality projects won't be launching tokens, and low-quality projects are too scared to touch Alpha, which is why it's not making any gains right now.
Maybe the ten-thousand U number is what Binance hopes to see in users. How many brothers are still holding on?
在坚持
47%
早就放弃了
53%
111 votes • Voting closed
An indefinite ceasefire, this matter has finally been put to rest, planning to make a $BTC wave at a high point.
Damn, $OPG sold big! Unreasonably forced the market up, clearly there was selling pressure from the community airdrop, and also selling pressure from the neighboring exchange, even on-chain there were sniping orders, but it was still pushed up. I regret selling; I'm such an idiot.
What do you think about the future market trends? A few points:
1. It's still the same old saying, if the US and Iran continue to fight, the market will drop; if they stop fighting, the market will rise. This underlying logic has been detailed in a previous long article.
2. Currently, when looking at the progress of US-Iran negotiations, don’t pay attention to what they say, but rather what they are doing and what they want. This kind of news is not really directed at the other side but is rather a message to their own people, or we could say to the global public. It does not reflect the real situation.
3. I still believe that both sides will eventually sign a ceasefire agreement. The previous tug-of-war, in my opinion, was merely an attempt to gain leverage at the negotiation table. Leverage is not gained through words, but rather through actual action. Iran claims it can control the Strait of Hormuz, and opening the strait is a significant concession; the US proves it can control it too, and opening the strait is not actually a concession...
I see that some friends are very focused on the differences in negotiations: they say there is no middle ground on enriched uranium, there is no middle ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no middle ground on whether to pay war reparations, etc...
But in fact, public opinion can be glossed over. Its essence is quite similar to buying clothes at a roadside stall, where prices are inflated, and you negotiate on the spot. The so-called conflicts and differences, under the condition that both sides have a demand for a ceasefire, are not a big deal.
The wheels are rolling towards you, and you are only fixated on a big stone ahead, which is meaningless. Because the problem is not significant; it’s just that the ride might be a bit bumpy. $BTC
1. It's still the same old saying, if the US and Iran continue to fight, the market will drop; if they stop fighting, the market will rise. This underlying logic has been detailed in a previous long article.
2. Currently, when looking at the progress of US-Iran negotiations, don’t pay attention to what they say, but rather what they are doing and what they want. This kind of news is not really directed at the other side but is rather a message to their own people, or we could say to the global public. It does not reflect the real situation.
3. I still believe that both sides will eventually sign a ceasefire agreement. The previous tug-of-war, in my opinion, was merely an attempt to gain leverage at the negotiation table. Leverage is not gained through words, but rather through actual action. Iran claims it can control the Strait of Hormuz, and opening the strait is a significant concession; the US proves it can control it too, and opening the strait is not actually a concession...
I see that some friends are very focused on the differences in negotiations: they say there is no middle ground on enriched uranium, there is no middle ground in the Strait of Hormuz, and there is no middle ground on whether to pay war reparations, etc...
But in fact, public opinion can be glossed over. Its essence is quite similar to buying clothes at a roadside stall, where prices are inflated, and you negotiate on the spot. The so-called conflicts and differences, under the condition that both sides have a demand for a ceasefire, are not a big deal.
The wheels are rolling towards you, and you are only fixated on a big stone ahead, which is meaningless. Because the problem is not significant; it’s just that the ride might be a bit bumpy. $BTC
Today's TGE is not bad, I suggest participating in $OPG .
1. The total amount of token fundraising is 1%, unit price 0.01u, the goal is to raise 158 BNB, and 53 people participating can fill it.
2. The threshold today is 226, basically everyone qualifies. Currently, the number of people brushing Alpha is expected to be 90,000, and I estimate about 50,000 will participate, which means an oversubscription of 1000 times.
3. The pre-market price of $OPG is currently 0.17u. With an oversubscription of 1000 times, the average profit per person is 30u, which is not bad. It’s like a celebration for everyone, I suggest participating in #Strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings.
1. The total amount of token fundraising is 1%, unit price 0.01u, the goal is to raise 158 BNB, and 53 people participating can fill it.
2. The threshold today is 226, basically everyone qualifies. Currently, the number of people brushing Alpha is expected to be 90,000, and I estimate about 50,000 will participate, which means an oversubscription of 1000 times.
3. The pre-market price of $OPG is currently 0.17u. With an oversubscription of 1000 times, the average profit per person is 30u, which is not bad. It’s like a celebration for everyone, I suggest participating in #Strategy to increase Bitcoin holdings.
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