诸葛投研

Regarding how to analyze the selling pressure and price fluctuations of Alpha airdrops, I saw that Mai has organized some viewpoints today, which are very clear. I share them with everyone:

1. The more shares given by the airdrop, the greater the selling pressure, and the coin price will generally fall. This is because the project parties looking to pump the price will cherish their chips.

2. The higher the market value at the opening, the greater the probability of a crash. This is because if the project party wants to pump the price, they will definitely open low to let the airdrop sell before pumping. If it's a high opening, it's likely that the project party also wants to offload.

3. The more positive news at the beginning of the listing, the greater the chance of a crash at the opening. This is because the project's positive news has already been fully utilized, and there are no new stories to pump the price; moreover, the project party also needs to recover the listing cost.

4. Projects with very high financing and listed on only one exchange have a higher probability of pumping. This is because there are expectations for listing on other exchanges in the future, making it easier for the project party to pump the price.

5. If the project party restricts community airdrops or engages in counteracting community efforts, there is a high likelihood of operations aimed at pumping the price. This is because restricting community airdrops is clearly intended to reduce selling pressure.

6. Those who list on BN spot first usually have to pump the price first; those who list on BN spot later generally have to pump the price before listing, and then they pour in afterward. This is because the project party also needs to raise the market value and then offload to recover costs.

7. Projects called by KOLs are basically the project party wanting to offload. When collecting funds, it is definitely quieter, after all, why spend money on advertising and pumping to let retail investors profit?

I base my judgments on these points to speculate whether Alpha airdrops will pump or if a pattern is necessary. Friends who find this useful can give it more likes. $客服小何 $H $PIPPIN

In Binance, identity is self-given. My chat room is also open, welcome friends who enjoy trading mainstream cryptocurrencies to come in and chat.

（The 5-point token has been postponed, everyone just needs to wait a moment）Alpha has finally welcomed the sunshine, a few thoughts:

1. Yesterday's 150,000 old coins $STABLE , today’s 200,000 new coins $NIGHT , basically everyone can have a share. Tonight's $WET is also a pretty good project, and its value is unlikely to be low. The sunshine has arrived.

2. NIGHT is unlikely to rise, everyone should run as soon as possible. The airdrop allocation is too much, and Binance has so many shares that it’s only 0.5%, while the neighboring boost+ finance has 2.7%, and the community also has a selling pressure of 4.75%, along with other exchanges that are hard to quantify. The selling pressure is too great, and the market has no funds to absorb it.

3. Tonight's WET is also a project with significant selling pressure, with 10% of the public offering under selling pressure, and the public offering cost is 0.05~0.069. In this market, opening above 0.1 is considered high. If it opens high, everyone should run as soon as possible.

4. Is today sunshine or just a flashback? It's hard to guess. It may involve large-scale token burns, and then a significant change in rules; or it could be that they know everyone has been hungry for a long time, so they let everyone make some money, otherwise, people will leave.

Should I take today's old coins, or wait to receive tomorrow's airdrop? Either way works, old coins are secure, new coins have dreams, let's see what everyone thinks.

There’s not much to say about old coins, but we need to wait for more accurate information about new coins to come out tomorrow before we can analyze them. To summarize briefly, to help everyone make a choice:

1. Tomorrow's new coins have received a lot of airdrops from next door, and even from the next door neighbor, so the share on Binance shouldn't be too weak, after all, Binance is stronger.

2. However, with so many airdrops, the problem is that there will be a lot of selling pressure, so we can't just sit back, we can only bet on a high opening.

3. A high opening is still possible, after all, there are 3 competitors, and Binance wouldn't want to give too little to each, otherwise it might seem a bit shabby.

Binance is awesome, finally taking action internally!

There were no airdrops yesterday and the day before, and I see many friends saying that Alpha is about to end. I think there's no need to panic excessively: #ALPHA #猪脚饭没了

1. Two consecutive days without airdrops is indeed unusual. It can only mean one thing: Binance most likely has no old coin airdrop inventory left. If there were any, Binance should still use the old coins to fill the gaps.

2. Does this mean Alpha is going to be delisted? No, Alpha is not a black-and-white issue. Even if there is a reverse pull, it is still online, waiting for users to voluntarily exit. This should be easy to understand; Binance has so many activities like "trading competitions, monthly challenges, daily words, a surprise for a penny," and many of them involve reverse pulls, yet they haven't been delisted. Why should Alpha be officially announced for delisting just because there are no airdrops? That doesn’t make sense; if users think it's not good, they just won’t participate.

3. Will there still be big rewards? No, there won't. In the past, there were big rewards due to "few participants + project being overvalued, thus valuable"; both factors are essential. If there are many participants, even a highly valuable project will be divided into 30u per share by Binance. If the project is not valuable, it will have to raise the threshold to maintain 30u per share.

4. Under what circumstances can there be big rewards? Unless the project is already valuable enough to be divided into 300,000 shares, still having a single share worth 200u. Generally, projects give Binance airdrops of 1%, which means unless a project with a valuation of 6 billion (300,000 * 200u / 1%) appears. Do you think that’s possible?

5. Even if it appears, I believe Binance would first only issue 0.15% of the airdrop to ensure everyone gets 30u. The remaining airdrop shares would be held back, used to fill gaps when there are no new projects, or to provide rewards in other activities. For example, $XPL , big reward, Binance has reserved a considerable amount of shares, and the monthly challenge in November directly distributed XPL, which should have been $BNB .

6. It’s normal to have no airdrops now; under such market conditions, when a project launches, it's a dead end. Even retail investors dare not take on the buying, so the project side has no way to sell once it’s pushed up, and they certainly wouldn’t dare to list new coins. No project side wants to engage in a round-robin.

This Saturday, $PIEVERSE will issue booster rewards. Has this been hyped a week in advance? At the current price, the minimum for a single number is 56u; for those lucky ones who win the lottery, a single number has 100u. Friends who are not afraid of liquidation can consider hedging in advance.

Yesterday I chatted with a newbie in the crypto world and found out he is really impressive:

A few months ago, he registered a wallet using the PC web version and turned on automatic translation. When he was noting down the mnemonic phrases, he copied them in Chinese, thinking the Chinese mnemonic would work for login too.

Later, when he needed to log in with his phone, he found he couldn't enter Chinese. After checking, he realized that the mnemonic phrases only had an English version.

What's impressive is that he actually used a translator to translate the Chinese back one by one and managed to figure it out 😂

Brother, you are really awesome $POWER , I am a newbie, my face is being slapped soundly. You are just an empty shell without any qualifications, why are you on the contract, I really don't understand

Everyone doesn't need to panic too much. This time, the 7 departments refer to 7 industry self-regulatory associations of private organizations, which is completely different from the 13 departments from a few days ago. Please understand the regulation correctly:

1. The last time the central bank united the 13 departments, they were the 13 regulatory departments with enforcement power: People's Bank of China, Ministry of Public Security, Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission, Central Financial Affairs Office, Supreme People's Court, Supreme People's Procuratorate, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Justice, State Administration for Market Regulation, National Financial Regulatory Administration, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

2. This time, the statement was issued by 7 industry self-regulatory associations spontaneously organized in the traditional financial industry, which do not have enforcement power: China Internet Finance Association, China Banking Association, China Securities Association, China Securities Investment Fund Association, China Futures Association, China Listed Companies Association, China Payment and Clearing Association.

3. Web3 is disruptive to traditional finance, and the industry self-regulatory associations of traditional finance will definitely resist it severely. Just like the asset securitization model that emerged from the real estate speculation in Shenzhen a few years ago, the industry self-regulatory associations also strictly oppose it. Therefore, it is certain they will resist RWA and oppose everyone speculating in cryptocurrencies.

(If you all stop trading stocks, how will my securities company and fund company make money? If you all convert your money to U, where will my bank get money to issue loans?)

4. So, everyone should not exaggerate the publicity, nor should they panic excessively. Is it bad news? Yes, after all, the domestic direct definition of 'all virtual currencies are scams' will deter many potential users and many novices; but will they really crack down on people severely? Not necessarily. Can you guess why this statement was not issued by the central bank along with the 13 ministries but by the 7 industry self-regulatory associations? Isn't it just that the government is too lazy to spend time and effort?

It turns out that Harvard is also a fool 😂, its holdings of $BTC in the second quarter were originally 100 million USD, and in the third quarter, it significantly increased its holdings to 440 million USD. As a result, just as it rushed in, it was left hanging at the top of the mountain. It completely experienced a 20% drop in November. (It may even continue to drop in late December)

The impact of the domestic crackdown has already emerged, contrary to expectations, directly warning all inbound and outbound fund activities by freezing accounts. This is still relatively mild, as they automatically unfreeze your account for you. Bank cards are more troublesome, requiring you to go to offline counters yourself. This has a significant impact on ordinary users.

In this large environment, no retail investors dare to enter the market against the wind, and many U traders are even retreating. If both institutions and retail investors withdraw and it's still not a bear market, then there really is no bear market.

Unfortunately, I chose to short the most stable option in this wave of decline, $ETH . If I had chosen $SOL , I would have made 20 points by now. 😂

(Disclaimer: Please believe me, every word I say is wrong)

Today's #ALPHA🔥 airdrop $POWER analysis:

1. A pure shell project, likely launched to ride the wave of Alpha hype as a three-no project. The threshold is 245 points, and the airdrop is distributing 0.75% of the total, which is 7.5 million tokens. Calculating an average of 375 tokens per person, there are 20,000 shares available. Friends with 240 points can wait a bit.

2. There is only the selling pressure from the Alpha airdrop, with no community backing and no financing. So if the project team really wants to pump the token, they can still do it.

3. However, the project team has enlisted a group of Chinese bloggers for advertising, making me feel that the likelihood of the project team dumping the token is higher. Personally, I lean towards them not pumping. Friends who want to speculate on a pump can feel free.

I heard that tonight's Alpha airdrop is the old coin $ESPORTS ? I see that someone has already started to short the contract, who knows the source of the rumor? Is it genuine?

As the market rises, various good news has emerged: expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, and American banks are advising their wealth management companies to allocate 1%-4% of assets to cryptocurrency...

But my view remains unchanged in the bear market:
1. To be honest, I just bottomed out at 125 for $SOL , and it rose to 145 in one day, which is indeed exciting.

2. However, my viewpoint hasn't changed; the current positive news is all expected and feels more like forced explanations for the rise: the interest rate cut in December was anticipated, but there are no stories to tell afterwards; the policy allowing banks to allocate crypto assets was passed on the 18th of last month, and bringing it up today feels pointless.

3. Moreover, data doesn't lie:
Why is it that ETH just upgraded its network, yet its spot ETF is still experiencing net outflows? Because institutions lack confidence in the future;
Why is the exchange rate clearly 7.07, yet the C2C entry price for US dollars only needs to be 6.98, especially when capital inflow and outflow are strictly regulated and there's no premium? Because on-site funds are also exiting, willing to exchange back to fiat currency at a discount;
Why is it that after the 1011 black swan event reduced leverage in the market, a lighter market continues to decline? Because no one wants to push the market up.

4. My viewpoint remains unchanged; although I made a quick profit from bottom fishing, I still believe this is a phase of rebound in a bear market. I decided to sell some today, reducing the position of $SOL back to 15%, continuing to wait for 8.2w of $BTC .

1. 9 o'clock old coin raid, the threshold is quite low, estimated to be 30 oil, those with 237 can wait and see.

2. The coupon center has a flash exchange task, 2 oil small profit, you can grab it.

Binance wallet is holding a trading competition, and I suggest everyone sign up, even if you don't trade:

1. Image 1 is the registration process. Based on the performance leaderboard, participants can share 100 of $BNB . The leaderboard is ranked according to profit amount, and the top 210 participants will receive a reward of 0.1 BNB.

2. I suggest everyone sign up even if you don’t trade. Why? Last week I shared a real story: a certain DEX exchange held a trading competition and invited the top 100 traders in the market to participate. As a result, 90 of the top traders lost money, while James Wynn, who didn't trade at all, took 11th place. (Image 2)

3. This time Binance has 210 spots available, and even if you have zero profit, you could still potentially earn 0.1 BNB (just trade 3 stablecoins to get on the leaderboard). Of course, if you are an exceptional trader, you can try to aim for the first place reward of 20 BNB.

4. Friends participating in the trading competition can bind the wallet invitation code "WEB3BIAN" to receive a 30% commission rebate. (The steps are shown in Image 3, which is very important for both of us)

5. Lastly, a reminder: Recently, there have been more and more phishing tokens in the Binance wallet, likely because hackers have tasted success. Everyone must be vigilant and not authorize these tokens!!! #美联储重启降息步伐

Do you want to get a pig's trotter rice for 30 bucks in 1 minute?

Binance's shopping season event, buy a 25u gift card for 21.25u, which can be directly exchanged for cryptocurrency and credited to your account. It can be done in 1 minute, and the steps are very simple; just follow the pictures.

Here are 2 detailed explanations about the event:

1. When everyone inputs 25u, they might notice the 26.25u figure, which is actually the original price of the 25u gift card. Because Binance is having a promotion, everyone gets a discount of 5u, meaning you only need to pay the discounted price of 21.25u.

2. You can participate once a month.

Tonight's airdrop $RLS has the potential for demon coins, recommended layout: #ALPHA

1. Currently, the selling pressure is only 0.5%, and the remaining chips are in the hands of the project party. If the project party wants to pump the price, it can do so easily;

2. There are a total of 62,500 RLS, and you can claim it at 242 points. The current pre-market price is 28u. Friends at 237 points can wait. Friends at 232 points should rely on luck. If this coin is pumped, there probably won't be any 232 points left; if the token doesn't pump, maybe you can pick up some at 232 points.

3. The quality of the project itself is decent, with financing of 25 million, and it has Tether investment. Additionally, there are very few outside chips, indicating that the project party wants to pump the price.

4. The downside is that the pre-market price is a bit high; it is already valued at 350 million. In this large market environment, it is somewhat high. The current pre-market price is 0.035u, and the institutional financing cost is 0.011u.

5. Comprehensive conclusion: recommended layout, estimated to reach around 50u.

Due to the joint announcement from the central bank and 13 ministries, the significant drop of $SOL $BNB $BTC came earlier than expected in mid-December.

Some people still have doubts: wasn't this news released over the weekend? Why did it only drop on Monday? Isn't virtual currency always being strictly regulated? Why did it drop so drastically this time?

The reason is quite simple: this crackdown is very serious.

1. When ICOs were defined as illegal fundraising in 2017, 7 ministries made the announcement; when all web3 businesses were phased out in 2021, 10 ministries made the announcement; this time, 13 ministries have spoken out, indicating a stronger stance.

2. In this meeting, holding stablecoins was directly defined as illegal activity, and trading stablecoins has been included in anti-money laundering regulations. In 2021, trading cryptocurrencies was just a matter of personal profit and loss, but now trading cryptocurrencies is suspected of money laundering, effectively making it illegal. Although an explanation could clear your name, the freezing of accounts will certainly impact people's lives.

3. When C2C trading of cryptocurrencies disappears, and when buying cryptocurrencies leads to account freezing, the domestic market will basically not have new funds coming in. As the world's second-largest economy, China might see a direct halt in capital inflow. Can you say the market isn't panicking?

This wave of rebound is likely over, and it is expected to continue dropping #加密市场观察