章魚同學Nikki

The fuel you added today, the groceries you bought, the deliveries you ordered, are all quietly becoming more expensive.

The fuel you added today, the groceries you bought, the deliveries you ordered, are all quietly becoming more expensive. No one is notifying you, but the bills won't lie to you.

Not trading stocks, not trading cryptocurrencies, do you think you can hide?

8000 kilometers away, a drone has bombed Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, halting 500,000 barrels/day of production capacity. Brent crude oil rose 8.5% in one day, and European natural gas skyrocketed 24%.

> Aviation fuel prices are rising → flight tickets 30,000. Logistics diesel prices rising → delivery fees rising. Fertilizer prices rising → prices of rice, flour, and vegetables rising. Inflation itself is harvesting your savings, without you needing to hold any assets.

> The insurance company for the Strait of Hormuz has withdrawn coverage. 150 oil tankers are stuck outside and dare not move. On Sunday, three ships were attacked, blocking 20% of global oil transportation. This is not "possible", it is "happening".

> Gold surged to $5390, and military stocks hit new highs. Your retirement fund's aviation stocks fell 8%, hotel stocks fell 9%. You didn't place a bet, but you're already losing.

> BTC stabilized at 66000 without collapsing. ETF outflows reached 9 billion, institutions have fled, but prices haven't crumbled. Is the safe haven failing or are institutions washing out? We'll see in three months.

> The most dangerous variable: Saudi Arabia. The refinery was bombed, the royal family said, "We must decide how to respond". If Saudi Arabia falls, all six Gulf countries will be involved, and the global energy stress test will officially begin.

> The 2019 Strait crisis quickly cooled down. This time: the supreme leader is dead, the refinery was bombed, ships were attacked, and insurance has fled. There are no conditions for cooling.

What have you recently felt is increasing in price? Please be specific 👇

Do you believe that someone can buy a life option for just 1 cent?

On Polymarket, 6 accounts, all newly created this February, only bet in one direction: that the U.S. would launch an airstrike on Iran before February 28. The buying price was 1 cent per share. A few hours later, Tehran exploded. The 6 accounts collectively made 1 million dollars.

Some say this is insider trading.
Personally, I find it hard to define. The U.S. had hinted at taking action for several weeks, and on the day before the airstrike, 25 million dollars poured into related contracts. Moreover, among these 6 accounts, one had previously bet on the wrong date and lost 300 dollars. Would someone with real insider knowledge make such a mistake?

The issue lies in their behavioral patterns: all new wallets, single direction, concentrated betting. This combination in on-chain analysis is the "insider trader profile." The same pattern appeared previously in contracts surrounding Maduro's resignation.

And now, Khamenei has been confirmed dead in the airstrike, and Iran immediately retaliated with missiles and drones against Israeli and U.S. military bases, even striking Dubai Airport. Those who previously bet on Khamenei's resignation made profits again.

What is the most terrifying part of this?
Even if someone really bets with a battle plan, there’s nothing you can do about it. Polymarket is overseas, unregulated, and only requires an anonymous wallet.

Then things became even more absurd. The terms did not exclude death; being ousted counts, resignation counts, and dying also counts. As long as he disappears, those who bet correctly can cash out. This is not a prediction market; this is a bounty announcement.

In February of this year, Israel has already filed the world's first criminal charges linking prediction markets with military intelligence. Prediction markets have officially entered the enforcement spotlight from the gray area.

But can the law keep up?
Blockchain can trace every transaction, yet it cannot answer the most critical question: at the moment of betting, is this person gambling, or do they know? If this market continues to exist, who will be the next one to be tagged with a price?

The three sheep banned from the mainland live streaming industry have surprisingly succeeded in listing on the US stock market, with a valuation of nearly 1 billion US dollars. Has Xiao Yang Ge really turned the tables this time? If this is truly a successful listing, why has the stock price plummeted from 180 dollars to below 10 dollars in less than a month, evaporating 90%?

To understand this situation, you must first grasp the experts behind the three sheep. They did not package the domestic business, which sells hundreds of billions annually but is highly controversial; instead, they only included the 'overseas business' in a new company to reverse merge into the US stock market. Why did they bring in Wu Yu Ge, who has 360 million global fans, to hold 49% of the shares while the three sheep only hold 13%? On the surface, it seems that Wu Yu Ge is the largest shareholder, but the real key lies in the operational rights. The three sheep obtained exclusive full-chain operational rights from Wu Yu Ge for 36 months. Wall Street loves to hear this kind of story: China's strongest live streaming capability + global top-tier IP. This is not business; it's selling a concept.

But the capital market isn't foolish; once the story is told, performance must ultimately be evaluated. The three sheep, which once broke 100 million in a single event, sold less than 250,000 in 4 hours when they resumed broadcasting in January this year? The Meixin mooncake incident, production place fraud, false advertising—once these labels are attached, it’s essentially a death sentence in the domestic market.

When the mainland's basic market collapsed and the doors to the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks closed, shifting to overseas became the last survival path. However, can the 'shouting and selling' low-priced goods, which emerged from China's intense competition, really recreate a legend of 27.7 billion RMB in overseas markets with completely different cultures and logistics?

Currently, ANPA's stock price trend resembles a horror movie targeting retail investors. Wall Street is keenly aware that what is packed inside the listed company is merely operational rights, while the most profitable assets remain external. This is essentially a textbook case of a golden cicada shedding its shell. Is the outcome for the three sheep the end of a grassroots counterattack story or the curtain call for the era of live streaming e-commerce? As the traffic dividend disappears, quality control, compliance, and long-term value—these elements that were once overlooked—are becoming the only standards that determine life and death.

Don't be brainwashed by the $6,000 slogan! Big funds have already swapped gold for Japanese bonds.

Today is February 17. Spot gold has still fallen below $5,000, currently struggling around $4,980; meanwhile, after failing to break through $71,000, Bitcoin has returned to $68,900 in fluctuation. Many people are confused: inflation in the U.S. has clearly cooled, interest rate cut expectations have stabilized, so why are gold and BTC still falling?

We need to consider a question: if interest rate cuts are a real positive, who is selling now?
This is called holiday liquidity exhaustion. The Chinese Lunar New Year holiday and U.S. Presidents' Day have left the market feeling empty. For the big players who set up positions at 4,500 points, $5,000 is their last cover to take advantage of retail investors' optimistic sentiment and complete an orderly retreat.

So, where exactly is this massive amount of money that has come out of hard assets flowing to?
Although BTC, as digital gold, has absorbed some liquidity, its rise and fall at 70,000 points proves that it is currently just a pressure testing station for funds. The real endpoint carrying huge institutional funds is Japanese government bonds.

Even the biggest short seller of Japanese bonds—Mark Nash—has now turned around and heavily invested in Japanese bonds? Why?
Because previously, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to decades-high levels, which was a signal of a bond market collapse; but after the victory of the high city early rice, the stability of the political situation directly eliminated the market's fear of policy unpredictability. While the U.S. is still worried about a $2 trillion fiscal deficit and the erosion of the dollar's credit, the certainty of Japanese government bonds has become the meat in the eyes of global funds. Nash is focused not only on bond returns but also on the 9% appreciation potential of yen assets compared to the Swiss franc. This is the real landing point chosen by smart money after withdrawing from gold.

After gold breaks below $5,000, is it an opportunity or a abyss?
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America predict that gold prices could rise to $5,400 or even $6,000 by the end of the year, but in the short term, the longer it stays below $5,000, the more bullish confidence collapses. Large funds are shifting from emotional gold to the certainty of Japan.

It's so unusual! The U.S. inflation just dropped to 2.4% in January, the lowest in six months, and the Federal Reserve is almost waking up with a smile. Logically, the stock market should be celebrating, but unexpectedly, the e-commerce giant Amazon has just set the worst consecutive decline record in 20 years, falling back into the shadows of 2006. Since money is no longer becoming expensive, why is Wall Street choosing this moment to send Amazon into a bear market?

To find the answer, let's pull back time to 2006. That year, Amazon also saw a nine-day consecutive decline like now because Bezos wanted to spend money on something that no one understood at the time—AWS cloud computing. Everyone criticized him as crazy, saying he was wasting cash, and profits plummeted by 55%.

Twenty years later, history is repeating itself. Current CEO Jassy also wants to spend money, but this time the amount has become an astonishing $200 billion. What exactly is he betting on?

This time he is not betting on the cloud; he is betting on AI infrastructure. What does $200 billion mean? It could drain all of Amazon's cash reserves and even put the company under significant debt. Wall Street is not afraid of AI; it fears that these chips worth tens of thousands of dollars each will devalue to scrap metal before they can even break even.

So the third question: If AWS took 10 years to show returns back then, do investors today have the patience to wait another ten years in the current AI race?

Now that Microsoft and Amazon have both entered a technical bear market, does this indicate that the AI faith of the seven giants has already shown cracks? The CEOs are urging everyone to be patient, saying this is not blind investment but a future cash cow. At the end of the video, do you think Amazon will, like in 2006, dominate the next twenty years with AI again, or will it be completely crushed by this $200 billion?

Just last Friday, the gold and silver markets experienced the most brutal 'massacre' since 1980. If you have gold or silver in hand, you might have lost sleep last night as silver plummeted by 31% in one day, and gold recorded the largest single-day drop in history in USD. This kind of volatility, more exaggerated than air coins, why would it happen to the most stable precious metals? The answer seems to point to one name: Kevin Warsh.

Trump has officially nominated him as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. At this point, you might ask: isn't it just a change of the person in charge? Why would the market react this way? We can imagine the Federal Reserve as a butler helping the host throw a party.

The previous butler, Powell, was more smooth, and everyone felt that even if inflation was high, he would continue to play music and serve free drinks (cut interest rates), so people frantically bought gold as a hedge, betting on 'currency devaluation'.

But Warsh is different. In the previous article, I mentioned that he is known in the circle as a notorious miser. His logic is simple: as long as inflation does not go back to normal, I will cut off the water and electricity (raise interest rates/contract balance sheet). So when everyone realizes that this person who resembles a teaching director is about to walk in, what is the first reaction? It is to withdraw investment.

In the past few months, global funds have poured into gold and silver, engaging in devaluation trades, betting that the dollar will collapse. As a result, the moment he appears, the dollar index skyrockets, recording the largest increase in months. It’s like you bought a bunch of insurance for accidents, only to find that accidents won’t happen at all; thus, the huge premiums you paid (the premium) naturally become a bubble. But what’s even stranger is: if it’s just a change of chairman, why is even industrial copper falling? Is this all just panic from retail investors?

Not really. Behind this is not only the reversal of expectations but also the exhaustion of liquidity. Additionally, the internal 'palace drama' currently unfolding within the Federal Reserve: the current chairman Powell is being investigated by the Justice Department due to old accounts of building renovations, which he claims is political intimidation. Meanwhile, Trump is trying to completely clean out the dovish forces within the Federal Reserve. Does this mean the bull market for precious metals is completely over?

Currently, the market predicts that Warsh will officially take office in June. Before that, gold is still holding at 4700 USD. Do you think a strong dollar era is really coming back? Or is this just a psychological battle by Trump to lower inflation?

The performance of gold prices in the past 24 hours has been quite shocking, plummeting from a high of about $5,626, with a decline close to 5%. Bitcoin has dropped to around $82,000, hitting a two-month low.

The movements in global markets over the past few days have left many investors dumbfounded. Originally, it was expected that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut interest rates, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks, government bonds, gold, and Bitcoin have all collectively fallen. Why has gold failed during such turbulent times?

The market is currently digesting a highly controversial piece of news: Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Who is he? He was a Federal Reserve governor and is well-known in the financial world. Although he has recently publicly supported interest rate cuts to cater to Trump's political needs, the market has not forgotten his long-standing hawkish nature. Betting platform Polymarket shows that the probability of his selection has soared to 80%.

If Trump really appoints a hawk in sheep's clothing, will our anticipated rate-cutting cycle be cut short? This is why U.S. Treasury yields are rising and the dollar continues to strengthen, as everyone is lowering their expectations for easing policies.

While the financial market is entangled over the selection of the Federal Reserve, geopolitics has thrown a bombshell. Reports indicate that the U.S. military has deployed 10 warships in the Middle East. Iran has also issued a clear warning: if the U.S. launches an attack, Iran will immediately strike U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers.

Typically, when geopolitical wars break out, gold prices should soar; why has gold instead fallen nearly 5% this time? It indicates that the current strength of the dollar and rising yields have become strong enough to overshadow the support of safe-haven sentiment.

The current situation gives me the impression that: the boss (Trump) wants to find an obedient accountant (Warsh) to lower interest rates, but this accountant was famously stingy in the past, causing creditors (the market) to quickly sell off their IOUs. If Warsh takes office and turns hawkish, combined with the war in the Middle East pushing up oil prices and reigniting inflation, do we still have a safe haven for our assets?

The current deadlock is clear: as long as the dollar remains strong, gold and Bitcoin will struggle to see the light of day. And if those 10 warships in the Middle East really take action, the secondary damage from soaring oil prices will make the Federal Reserve even more reluctant to cut rates.

Don't ask me if gold can still be bought anymore.

First, you need to clarify who is actually buying now? The mainstream narrative will tell you: this is the central banks of various countries de-dollarizing, preparing for the end of the fiat currency system. Even legendary investor Ray Dalio said this is an inevitable path under major conflict. But if central banks are really frantically emptying their gold reserves, why do we see completely opposite signals in trade data?

We need to look at the data. London is the global center for gold and silver trading, and the data from UK customs acts as a thermometer for central bank purchases. Although the purchasing volume of central banks did double after 2022, by November, the UK's gold export volume actually plummeted by 80% year-on-year. China is the number one buyer, but in November, the total amount of gold imported from the UK was less than 10 tons, far below the average level. If the real major buyers are holding back, why can gold prices still be maintained at high levels?

There is a rational logic here: central banks also think gold is too expensive.

When gold prices rise, the market value of gold in reserves will automatically increase. For example, Poland originally wanted to raise the gold proportion to 30%, but because the gold price is too high, this goal has almost been automatically achieved, and they will naturally slow down their purchasing pace. In fact, the strongest driving force for sovereign purchases is already on the edge of retreat.

Since exports are declining, where did the gold go?
The answer is: it stayed in the gold vaults in London. Why buy gold and not transport it back to their country? The first reason is for liquidity. As long as the gold does not leave London, it can be realized on the books at any time; once transported away, additional costs for appraisal and transportation must be paid. The second reason, according to data from the London Bullion Market Association, the amount of gold in the vaults increased by 199 tons in December.

Historically, when vault reserves significantly increase while export volumes are extremely low, it usually indicates that sovereign purchases have reached their end.
To put it bluntly, the people buying gold now have no intention of putting the gold into their national treasury; they are just buying a certificate called an unallocated account. What they possess is merely a debt claim against the vault. It feels like the current strength is more like a gold-worshiping religion supported by market inertia. People no longer care whether the dollar collapses or not; they only care if there is another speculator willing to pay a higher price to buy this certificate from me.

Gold has broken 5000 dollars, a number never seen in human history.

Many people's first reaction is: "Can we still make money by buying gold now?"
Before that, I would like everyone to think about a question: Why, in the year 2026 when technology is so advanced, do humans still collectively retreat to this 'yellow metal' that 'cannot be eaten or used'?

If we view global finance as a competition, gold's opponent is actually credit. Last week, gold prices recorded the largest weekly increase since 2008. What happened at the same time?
· The U.S. is having tariff disputes with allies over the 'Greenland' issue;
· The Department of Justice is unprecedentedly investigating the Federal Reserve Chairman;
· Japan's bond market is also experiencing severe fluctuations due to spending plans.
This leads us to the second question: When the world's most recognized safe-haven currency, the dollar, and the institutional credibility behind it start to show cracks, do global central banks and smart money have better choices than switching to gold?

Experts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have mentioned a word: "uncertainty."

Previously, we felt that the world had rules. But recent events—from geopolitical conflicts to the unpredictable policies between great powers—are sending a signal: the old rules are failing.

Now, the third question arises: If even paper wealth like the dollar, euro, and yen is beginning to make people uneasy, then what is the upper limit of gold's value as an asset that 'doesn't require anyone's endorsement'? History tells us that whenever a new world order is established in pain, gold often becomes the only anchor point.

Seeing silver break 100 dollars and gold break 5000 dollars, many people will feel anxious, even thinking they have missed the opportunity to get rich. But I want to encourage everyone to think about the last question: If the rise in gold prices reflects a contraction of global credit, then do the other assets we hold still have purchasing power?

This may no longer be a question of "can we make money?" but rather a question of "how to avoid depreciation."

TSMC's financial report is crazy again, and tech stocks are collectively reviving! But everyone, don't just focus on whether chip prices are rising or falling; what truly determines the thickness of your wallet in 2026 is not the candlestick chart, but the financial statements just released by those 'top predators' on Wall Street today.

Why is the market rising while your account is shrinking?
TSMC's financial report is indeed a shot in the arm, directly bringing back the sluggish tech stocks. And have you noticed? As soon as Trump loosened his tone towards Iran, the previously soaring oil prices immediately cooled down.

But do you think the crisis is over? Look at what Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock, those old foxes, are playing at? It's a classic case of good news being fully priced in. Last year, everyone was crazy about buying bank stocks, and now that the performance is so good, they are the first to pull out. This indicates that smart money is already looking for the next harvesting battlefield.

This brings us to today's protagonist: ETF.
In just 35 years, it has rubbed traditional mutual funds on the ground, and its scale has surged to 13.5 trillion USD. Why is it so dominant? Because it is efficient and has low taxes, like putting a group of great white sharks into a pond, specifically to eat those slow-reacting old funds. But here comes the problem: if ETFs are so good, why are the ETFs you bought making you doubt life?

Because many ETFs are designed to dig into your pockets:
Leverage traps: Those triple-leveraged short funds sound exciting, but the losses are astonishing. There's a reverse fund that lost 99.99% in 15 years! It's all about constantly merging shares to sustain life.
Dividend scams: Don't be dazzled by a 46% dividend rate. There’s a Tesla-covered call ETF that seems generous in dividends, but the total return hasn't even reached half of holding the underlying stock. This is like using your bone marrow to make soup for you, and you still think the soup is great!
Hotspot harvesting: As soon as you see flashy names like quantum computing or brain-computer interfaces, it's basically the sign that the market has peaked; they are just waiting for you to step in and take the bait.

BlackRock's asset scale has just broken 14 trillion! Larry Fink is very shrewd, laying off workers while aggressively investing in opaque private equity and alternative investments. What does this mean? It means that the top players are no longer playing with ordinary people. They are playing with deeper, more opaque markets, even those without candlestick charts.

If you want to turn things around in the cryptocurrency or US stock market in 2026, relying solely on hard work and reading news is useless. In this ecological niche, if you can't clearly see who the hunter is.

Why has silver become the unexpected dark horse in 2025?
By the end of December 2025, silver is expected to reach nearly $71 per ounce, with an annual increase of over 120%. Many friends have already started to slap their thighs, while at the same time, gold has also risen by about 60%; Bitcoin was more dramatic, soaring to 126,000 in October before falling back to around 87,000 by the end of the year, failing to attract much capital during times of high risk aversion.

What makes silver outperform gold?
The first layer of reason is that the macro environment has given a green light to hard assets.
In 2025, global monetary policy has shifted to easing, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates multiple times, pushing down real yields and weakening the dollar. Low real interest rates + ongoing inflation fears = the most comfortable breeding ground for hard assets. It's not surprising that gold has risen from a low of 2600 to 4500.

But silver is impressive at the second layer; it can also benefit from the dividends of economic expansion, serving both as a store of value and an industrial necessity. So when the cycle comes, silver has historically loved to do one thing: amplify the precious metal market.

The fourth layer, industrial demand, is the engine driving this wave of silver. Currently, industrial usage accounts for nearly half of silver consumption, and it is still increasing.

Where does the largest incremental demand come from?
Solar energy + electrification + electric vehicles; an electric vehicle typically uses about 25 to 50 grams of silver, significantly more than gasoline vehicles. Sales are experiencing double-digit growth, and with the addition of charging stations and fast charging equipment, a large amount of silver is needed. Currently, the supply side cannot keep up. Much of the silver is a byproduct from mining base metals like copper and lead-zinc; you can't just simply dig more silver out on demand. The result is that the global silver market will experience a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025. It's strange if prices don't rise.

The fourth layer is that defense spending is quietly consuming silver. Modern weapon systems, such as radar, guided electronics, drones, and secure communications, all rely on silver. What's worse is that some silver used for military purposes is destroyed after use and cannot be recycled. Military spending reached a new high in 2024 and is expected to continue to increase in 2025 due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Can it continue to rise in 2026?
To be honest, most of the driving forces are still in place; electric vehicles, expanding power grids, renewable energy, and defense budgets haven't shown any obvious signs of slowing down; meanwhile, supply remains tight. New mines not only have long cycles, but recycling can't make up for the 'military consumption' gap. If real yields remain low, gold may still perform well; if risk appetite increases, Bitcoin may rebound.

Why is it said that Japan's interest rate hike this time is a failure?

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to the highest level in 30 years, and what has happened? The yen not only did not rise but instead fell to a historical low. This is completely contrary to the effect they originally wanted.

First, let's look at what is happening now. The yen has been falling too quickly recently, and the Japanese officials have already started to make statements. If the exchange rate fluctuates too violently, the government is prepared to take appropriate action. In plain language, it does not rule out intervening in the exchange rate personally.

Currently, the USD/JPY is around 157, and the market generally believes that once it approaches 160, Japan may, like last year, directly intervene to save the yen.

Hasn't there already been an interest rate hike? Why has the yen become weaker instead?

There are roughly three reasons for this. First, the positive effects of the interest rate hike have long been absorbed by the market. Second, Japan's interest rates appear high, but they are still “negative.” Currently, Japan's nominal interest rate is 0.75%, but inflation is close to 3%, which means the real interest rate is still over -2%. And what about the United States? The real interest rate is positive. What does this mean? The interest rate differential still exists, so arbitrage trades of borrowing yen and buying dollars naturally continue to occur.

Third, summarizing the governor's statements at the press conference: there is no roadmap for future interest rate hikes, and there is no rush. He even said that the highest interest rate in 30 years has no special significance. The market understands that the Bank of Japan is not in a hurry to continue tightening. As a result, the yen has been sold off even more severely. But this is not the most fatal issue. The visibly apparent problem is that Japan is now trapped by debt.

Government debt is 240% of GDP, and if long-term interest rates really go up, Japan may not be able to bear it directly. So they have two options: either the debt has problems, or let the currency continue to depreciate.

It seems that they have chosen the latter.

So what does their choice mean for the global market? In the short term, with the yen not rising and arbitrage not being closed, U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold have instead breathed a sigh of relief. The Nikkei Index rises, and gold and silver hit new highs.

However, if Japan suddenly intervenes or is forced to accelerate interest rate hikes, the reversal of arbitrage trading will have a significant impact. In 2024, it has already been demonstrated once: Japanese stocks plummeted, and Bitcoin followed suit.

Japan is currently walking a tightrope between currency depreciation and a debt crisis.

Have you noticed that the market has started to behave strangely these past few days? Clearly, the Federal Reserve has been dovish, and just yesterday, on November 24th, the leaders of the U.S. and China had a phone call, and the atmosphere was good, yet risk assets suddenly started to hit the brakes.

Let's start by talking about the market's direction.

Why are risk assets hesitant to rise? Look at the three major U.S. stock futures, all down:
→ S&P -0.13%
→ Nasdaq -0.23% more
→ Dow -0.15%

Europe is slightly better, but Germany and the UK opened flat, with weak gains.

Asia is even more evident, just following up; Nikkei +0.1%, Korea +0.3%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange is still down.

What are institutional funds really focused on?
The bond market. Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding at around 4.03%, completely unchanged. Funds cannot see a clear direction, are hesitant to bet too much, and are unwilling to rush out.

What about safe-haven assets?
→ U.S. Dollar Index 100.15, down 0.03%, and the yen against the dollar has fallen 0.18%, now at 156.38 yen.
→ Gold has risen to 4135: someone is increasing their positions for safety.

BTC sentiment is also weakening, today it surged and then fell back to 87692; the inability to rise actually indicates that even sentiment-driven assets are starting to get scared.

Global capital has simultaneously entered a wait-and-see mode, with the market waiting for a direction. This direction is: initial jobless claims.

Why is this data so crucial?

The two major positive factors mentioned earlier have been mostly digested by the market. A few days ago, the probability of a rate cut in December was only around 40%. But recently, several core officials from the Fed have started speaking and continuing to be dovish, and this probability has been instantly re-priced by the market to over 70%.

Note: It is not that the market believes "there will definitely be a rate cut in December," but rather that the direction is changing from no cut → possible cut → likely cut in the future. Prices move first, while policies must wait for data confirmation.

But here's the problem: due to the U.S. government shutdown, a bunch of key data is delayed:
Non-farm payrolls absent, CPI postponed, and even the Fed cannot see the real economy clearly.

What’s the next step? The market has already handed over direction to the data coming this Wednesday.

Why didn't you take advantage of this wave of rising prices?
Trading goes against human nature!

I have noticed a very common problem
Many people do not have their own trading logic
They are unclear about entry and exit points
They only ask why when prices rise or fall?
When you are unclear about the situation
Your life and death are in the hands of others
If you choose to be a soldier (unable to understand the market)
You must believe
You will definitely walk to the end with the king and achieve victory
What you need to do is to unconditionally believe in the king
(Of course, you need to find a real king; I mean, you need to have your own judgment or follow smart people)

I want to share why this time I relied on BTC to buy low from 99000 to 16208 in spot trading and was able to profit.

First of all, I believe my king @Picklecat
And I trust her

She will generously share the big direction, and the thinking logic...
Why do I think this way? What is the basis for my judgment? Why emphasize macro over indicators?

The battle plan has already been deployed
Next is the most against human nature part
That is, we have to be our own king
I know
This goes against human nature so much
Strictly execute the trading strategy
Ignore the price fluctuations
For example, operate ETH buy below 3600
But the price spiked to 3057, making most people hesitant to act
Late at night, I sat in a dark room holding my phone
Not sure which is more dazzling:
The glowing screen or the falling curve
I told myself
I want to be that 1% of people
Buy!
Buy low
Buy more as it falls
Spot trading is not scary
To be honest
In practice... it's hard, really hard
I know the market is trying to disrupt my judgment
So during this time, I don't look at various communities much
(Even my own community is rarely operated, I feel ashamed)
Those who understand, understand
I prefer to spend time on first-hand information, research reports, and financial reports

Actually, I have always focused on dollar-cost averaging BTC and rarely pay attention to mainstream altcoins, but this time the cat has brought me considerable benefits and more dimensions of thinking
#ETH #美国政府停摆 #BTC

Is market consensus important?
I think it is too important. Quantitative easing officially starts in December, and the market believes liquidity has returned. ETFs are starting to move, and after a net outflow of 660 million dollars over 6 days, the BTC ETF finally saw a net inflow of 240 million dollars on the 6th. There are too many data impacts in December,

- December 10: US November Consumer Price Index (CPI), real wages, etc.
- December 11: US November Producer Price Index (PPI)
- December 16: US November Import and Export Price Index
- December 19: US third quarter GDP final estimate + corporate profit revision

This is positive for the stock market, gold, and the cryptocurrency space. Plus, the US federal government will eventually end the shutdown, most leverage will be cleared, and if altcoin ETFs are approved, with good GDP data, unexpectedly, this will be the last bite of meat we have in 2025.

The Federal Reserve stops tapering in December, buy the dip or escape?

Major good news, the Federal Reserve will not taper starting from December 1. In plain language, it means they will no longer take money back, but they are not immediately printing money again. Many people hear this and get excited: "Wow, QE is coming back, the bull market is about to take off!" But wait, this time the situation is completely different from that in 2020.

First, we need to look at the overall environment. The wave of layoffs in the U.S. has returned, with about 150,000 jobs cut in October, an increase of 175% compared to last year, the highest for the same month in 20 years. Looking at the market, Bitcoin has fallen 20% from its October high, briefly dropping below $100,000, and the U.S. stock market is also moving sideways at high levels.

But strangely, the funds in ETFs have not all withdrawn; funds are still slowly flowing into ETFs like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This means that big money hasn't fled, it's just become more cautious.

So what does 'stopping tapering' really mean?

Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been pulling money back—tapering. Now, they have decided not to pull back for the time being. Although money hasn't started being printed wildly, at least it won't be withdrawn anymore. This makes the market feel that liquidity will return. Therefore, the stock market, cryptocurrencies, and gold—all risk assets—believe this is good news.

However, don’t celebrate too early; inflation is still high, the U.S. stock market is hitting new highs, and government debt is exploding. Relaxing policy at this time is like giving a stimulant to a patient— it indeed provides a boost in the short term, but the problems become bigger afterward.

Ray Dalio from Bridgewater has directly stated, "This round of easing is not to save the bubble, but to create a bubble."

If inflation inevitably rises again, the Federal Reserve will definitely have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy again, and by that time, the market could be hit even harder. This exposes the problem of excessive leverage and triggers a sharp sell-off in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

It’s time again to predict the market: this wave may rise for a while, then be brought back down by reality. If it drops in November, buy; December could be a small bull window, but in January and February next year, be cautious of "counter-kills."

I believe the current market—can make money, but more importantly, you need to learn to run.