章魚同學Nikki

I also need to stimulate the nerves

Cat Teacher, my true god

Is MicroStrategy selling Bitcoin?

The truth is completely the opposite.

A recent screenshot has gone viral in the community. The headline is particularly alarming: MicroStrategy says that if Bitcoin continues to decline for three years, we may be forced to sell Bitcoin.

Doesn't it sound like a catastrophic bearish signal? The once self-proclaimed "never selling coins" diamond-handed company is actually saying: sell BTC?

If you only look at the headline, you would indeed be scared to death. But when you zoom in on the screenshot, you'll see a more frightening and more noteworthy figure:
They actually have 1.44 billion dollars in cash reserves.

Goodness, it turns out the core of the whole matter is not about "selling coins", but rather MicroStrategy wants to tell the entire market: we are well-funded, even if a three-year super bear market hits, we won't die.

In fact, outsiders have always thought of MicroStrategy as a high-leverage gambler, and the bears love to say: "Just a little more drop, and they will be liquidated!"

But this chart directly shuts the bears' mouths.

How did the 1.44 billion dollars come about?
This money comes from the latest stock financing, with a clear purpose:
✔ Cover interest for the next 21 months
✔ Pay preferred stock dividends
✔ Buy themselves a two-year "survival insurance"

You can understand it this way: even if revenue drops to zero, they absolutely do not need to sell any Bitcoin to maintain operations.

So what does three years of continuous decline mean? It's not a warning, it's a provocation. They are publicly telling the market: unless something that has never happened in Bitcoin's history occurs, we will never sell.

Has there ever been a record of BTC declining for three consecutive years in history?
Never. The longest time is a year and a half.

So what I see is that MicroStrategy is evolving from an "aggressive buyer" into the shadow central bank of Bitcoin.

How to understand this news?
In the short term, there will certainly be people using it to stir up FUD, but those who truly understand financial reports will see that this is a positive signal.

And the real lesson for ordinary investors is: if you can't withstand three years of decline, don't try to play leverage like Saylor. They have long since transformed from whales into submarines capable of diving for three years.

For ordinary people, buying spot is the best investment method.

Why is it that only the yen is rising?

On the first day of December, the global market directly gave investors a wake-up call. U.S. stocks fell, European stocks fell, Japanese stocks also fell, and even Bitcoin once plummeted by 6%.

But! In this sea of red, only the yen surged against the trend. Why is it that all assets are collapsing, yet the yen is rising the most?

Before answering this question, let's take a look at how dire the global situation really is?
→ U.S. stock market pre-market: Nvidia fell over 1%, Google and Apple all fell, S&P futures down 0.7%
→ European stocks: collectively opened lower
→ Japanese stocks collapsed the hardest: Nikkei directly fell 1.9%
→ Cryptocurrency is even more stimulating, Bitcoin dropped to $83700, Ethereum fell over 6%.

Even the three safe-haven assets are in chaos:
Gold prices rose to $4241, silver broke through $57, copper continues to rise.

So why is it that only the yen is rising?
The core reason is just one word: interest rate hike!
The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, suddenly issued the strongest hawkish signal in history: We are reviewing the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and are brewing a decision.

This is the Bank of Japan hinting that it may end negative interest rates and raise rates.

And once Japan raises rates, what will it face?
The yen, which has long been used by foreign capital as a "cheap financing currency," will soon become a "profitable currency."

As a result, the USD/JPY directly plummeted by 0.7%, and the yen recorded the largest increase since October.

The probability of a rate hike by Japan on December 19 is as high as 76%, once surging to 80%.

What is the real source of global panic?
On the surface, it seems to be the rumors of interest rate hikes, but there are three layers of risks stacked together behind it:

*U.S. data week is about to arrive
ADP, ISM, non-farm... a bunch of key data is to be released.
If the data is stronger → expectations for Fed rate cuts are shattered.
If the data is weaker → the market fears a hard landing of the economy.
Neither side is good.

*The selection of the Federal Reserve chairman adds uncertainty
Trump has already decided on the next Federal Reserve chairman candidate,
What the market fears most is: a sudden change in policy direction.
This directly exacerbates short-term uncertainty.

*The stock market has risen too much, and funds want to run first
The AI concept has risen for too long, the bubble smell is too strong,
Everyone wants to cash out before the "data bomb".

The next key time point to watch is the Bank of Japan meeting on December 19. If they really raise rates, the world will face a financial earthquake.

Why did everything suddenly rise at the end of November?
After experiencing the wave of 'collective decline' in early November that made everyone's scalp tingle—by the end of the month, the financial market suddenly saw a rebound in everything.

U.S. stocks rose, government bonds rose, commodities rose, and Bitcoin bounced back 7% from its low to above 90,000. This reversal in the market was as quick as flipping a book.

So what exactly happened? Here are the three key things behind the market reversal.

First, the expectation of a rate cut in December was suddenly ignited.
Last Friday, New York Federal Reserve President Williams made a big dovish statement.
The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in December instantly surged from 30% to 50%, and then, after several speeches from Powell's allies, the expectation skyrocketed to 85%.

Risk assets quickly revived.

Second, the holiday week sentiment turned around dramatically.
During Thanksgiving week, U.S. stocks took off directly:
• The S&P 500 rose 3.7% for the week, marking the strongest performance in six months.
• The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries fell below the psychological 4% threshold.
• Silver and copper broke historical highs.
Even the CME halting trading due to a glitch couldn't stop the rise.

Third, the liquidity bottom became sturdier.
Let's see what Bloomberg strategist Simon White said; his viewpoint is crucial. He mentioned that the Treasury and the Fed formed a 'double put option', and combined with positive remaining liquidity in G10, what does this mean? You can understand it this way: it's very difficult for the market to experience a systemic crash in the short term.

Some analysts even said, don't fight the Fed, and don't fight AI.
Because liquidity + AI = the biggest bottom logic of this round of market.

Additionally, Google released its AI large model and new TPU, and the sentiment in tech stocks rebounded directly, while Nvidia, on the other hand, was the biggest loser among the seven tech giants this month. Its stock price is currently around 177–178 per share, having fallen 13% compared to its 52-week high.

The People's Bank of China also reiterated recently that virtual currencies do not have legal tender status in China, and there are still risks associated with stablecoin usage.

If the Fed really cuts rates in December, will it turn into another cross-asset big market? If not, will it perform another counterattack?

In recent days, there has been a large number of contract cancellations, and the liquidity of BTC and ETH will become more sensitive.

Recently, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly. Has the market come back?
However, after looking at the market data, it tells me one thing: this is not a bull market; the forces driving it may be different from what you think.

Investment carries risks, and financial management requires caution. My accounts on all platforms are unified under @zytxweb; others are impersonations.

① First, let's look at the unrealized gains of BlackRock's ETF holdings, which have dropped from the tens of billions at the highest in October to close to the current price. Market pressure is not as great as before. The more money institutions make (the more unrealized gains), the more likely they are to sell off. The closer institutions are to their cost, the less they dare to sell off recklessly.

The ETF saw a slight net inflow again in the past two weeks. This is not a signal of a bull market, but at least it's the first time the market has stabilized.

② The probability of a 25% rate cut in December has jumped from last week's 40% to now 85%. This change in expectation is often a plus for risk assets, but right now the market is not concerned with 'whether there will be a rate cut' but rather whether the Federal Reserve is willing to start the next round of easing. This uncertainty remains high.

③ The liquidation range is currently very sensitive. According to data from Coinglass:
• Breaking above 93,000 → The scale of short liquidations is 1.042 billion
• Falling below 89,000 → The scale of long liquidations reaches 1.16 billion
It can be said that both sides are landmines, and stepping on either side will explode.

④ Finally, let's look at the options structure:
The recent pullback has allowed many bearish people to take profits in the 81,000–82,000 range. However, at the same time, there has been a very aggressive year-end bullish combination in the market:
• 100,000
• 106,000
• 112,000
• 118,000

These are all bullish options expiring in December. This type of combination is not small, and behind it are some traders betting on a 'Christmas rally'.

On the other hand, there are also people continuously selling these high-position bullish options to suppress volatility. So the market now gives me the feeling that: the long-term outlook is bullish, but the short-term is very cautious.

ETH also has 1.7 billion expiring, with a relatively balanced structure. The key is still whether BTC's volatility will spread outward.

Have you noticed that the market has started to behave strangely these past few days? Clearly, the Federal Reserve has been dovish, and just yesterday, on November 24th, the leaders of the U.S. and China had a phone call, and the atmosphere was good, yet risk assets suddenly started to hit the brakes.

Let's start by talking about the market's direction.

Why are risk assets hesitant to rise? Look at the three major U.S. stock futures, all down:
→ S&P -0.13%
→ Nasdaq -0.23% more
→ Dow -0.15%

Europe is slightly better, but Germany and the UK opened flat, with weak gains.

Asia is even more evident, just following up; Nikkei +0.1%, Korea +0.3%, and the Tokyo Stock Exchange is still down.

What are institutional funds really focused on?
The bond market. Today, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is holding at around 4.03%, completely unchanged. Funds cannot see a clear direction, are hesitant to bet too much, and are unwilling to rush out.

What about safe-haven assets?
→ U.S. Dollar Index 100.15, down 0.03%, and the yen against the dollar has fallen 0.18%, now at 156.38 yen.
→ Gold has risen to 4135: someone is increasing their positions for safety.

BTC sentiment is also weakening, today it surged and then fell back to 87692; the inability to rise actually indicates that even sentiment-driven assets are starting to get scared.

Global capital has simultaneously entered a wait-and-see mode, with the market waiting for a direction. This direction is: initial jobless claims.

Why is this data so crucial?

The two major positive factors mentioned earlier have been mostly digested by the market. A few days ago, the probability of a rate cut in December was only around 40%. But recently, several core officials from the Fed have started speaking and continuing to be dovish, and this probability has been instantly re-priced by the market to over 70%.

Note: It is not that the market believes "there will definitely be a rate cut in December," but rather that the direction is changing from no cut → possible cut → likely cut in the future. Prices move first, while policies must wait for data confirmation.

But here's the problem: due to the U.S. government shutdown, a bunch of key data is delayed:
Non-farm payrolls absent, CPI postponed, and even the Fed cannot see the real economy clearly.

What’s the next step? The market has already handed over direction to the data coming this Wednesday.

Last night, Bitcoin shot up to $80,000. From a peak of 126,000, it has plummeted 30% in 43 days. The yen has fallen 3.7% in a month, and the yield on Japan's 40-year government bonds has surged to 3.774%. In one day, the U.S. stock market evaporated $2.3 trillion.

Why is the whole world falling together?
The answer is simple: Japan.

What exactly did Japan do to cause such severe consequences?
Because the Japanese government approved a stimulus plan of 21.3 trillion yen on Friday, essentially telling the market: they can no longer hold on.

What is the current situation in Japan?
• The economy experienced direct negative growth of -0.4% in the third quarter.
• Inflation has exceeded 3% for 43 consecutive months, and wages have not risen.
• Debt is three times GDP, the highest in the world.
The stimulus plan is not for improvement, but to prevent things from getting worse.

As soon as Japan announced it, three things exploded simultaneously within just 48 hours:
• The yen against the dollar broke 157, which is basically a level the Japanese government cannot tolerate; if it goes higher, they will intervene to stabilize the market.
• The yield on 40-year government bonds rose from 3.697% to 3.774%.
• Japan's government will have to pay an additional 2.8 trillion yen in interest this year.

The Bank of Japan is now cornered; whether to raise interest rates or not, the entire world will suffer.

Why does the yen have such a big impact? Before that, we need to understand how global institutions have played in recent years.
That is, carry trades, borrowing cheap yen, converting it to dollars, and frantically investing in overseas high-interest assets like real estate, U.S. stocks, and BTC, earning the interest rate differential in between. The foreign exchange market estimates that the scale of global carry trades exceeds $20 trillion, with the yen being the biggest player.

As long as the yen is weak, they can earn money easily. But what about now?
Japanese bonds are soaring, interest rates are climbing, and the yen could rebound at any time. Investors can now only do one thing: sell BTC and U.S. stocks frantically without regard for cost, and quickly pay back the money.

So this is not an ordinary correction; this is a forced liquidation, a panic sell-off.

What’s next for BTC?
The key support zone is between $82,000 and $84,000, where 825,000 BTC are piled up. If it holds → we can look at $100,000 by the end of the year; if it doesn’t hold → $74,000 to $77,000 will be hit again, and then it will truly be a bear market.

A bear market is both a crisis and an opportunity. When the market washes away the unreasonable parts, the new cycle will be stronger. The same goes for BTC; what you need to do is to survive, not leave this market, and not have regrets.

Is the bear market coming?

Bitcoin is falling, and the US stock market is struggling. This situation usually indicates that there are more issues ahead. There are several key points you must know.

• Saudi actions are the most significant
Officially announcing the mining of BTC and collaborating with NVIDIA and Elon Musk on a 500 MW AI supercomputer, also planning to invest $1 trillion in the US. The direction is very clear: it's moving towards technology and computing power.

• Market structure is divided
Under normal circumstances, if BTC falls below the key cost price, market sentiment generally leans towards bear market expectations. However, the structures of the S&P 500 and Dow futures still appear relatively healthy, and there is even short-term upward potential. Therefore, you will see a very contradictory market, with one strong and one weak, moving very inconsistently.

• A very critical variable is the impact after NVIDIA's earnings report. Third-quarter revenue is approximately $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62%.

But the market reaction is more focused on future guidance. If the company provides stronger expectations for AI demand and subsequent growth, risk appetite will improve rapidly; conversely, sentiment will remain cautious, and short-term risk assets will also be suppressed.

• Another variable is the increasing uncertainty of the Federal Reserve. The market currently has lowered the probability of a rate cut in December to below 43%. There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve, which has intensified short-term market volatility.

• The US Senate will vote on the crypto market structure bill in December. If the bill passes, the regulatory positioning of Bitcoin will become clearer, which is a positive factor for crypto in the medium to long term.

• Despite continuous net outflows from ETFs, BlackRock has submitted an "Ethereum Staking Trust" and transferred all $800 million of BTC and ETH into Coinbase Prime. If this trust/product is successfully launched, the way institutions enter Ethereum may change completely.

After reading all this, do you still think the bear market is coming?

You can perform stand-up comedy now, Teacher Cat, dddd

BTC Falls Below $90,000

24-Hour Liquidations Reach $947 Million

Who is Dragging Down the Market? Will It Continue to Fall?

BTC fell as low as $89,650;

ETH fell 7%, returning below $3,000;

XRP fell 6%;

SOL and BNB fell approximately 4%.

The entire crypto market capitalization evaporated by $160 billion,

The Fear & Greed Index dropped to 11 – the extreme fear level.

*Why the Fall?

It's not that someone is dumping the market; the entire market is short of funds.

*Didn't the US shutdown end?

Yes, it did. But during the shutdown, the government didn't spend money, and the Treasury's TGA account was piled up to over $1 trillion; the money didn't flow into the market.

The withdrawn funds haven't been replenished, and liquidity remains tight.

This is one of the underlying reasons for Bitcoin's recent decline.

The end of the shutdown ≠ immediate recovery of liquidity.

This fiscal delay typically lags the market by 2-4 weeks. "

December Rate Cut Uncertainty → Risk Assets Hesitant to Buy

The probability of no rate cut in December is 57.1%. The market was expecting a rate cut, but now that it's suddenly announced that "a rate cut is possible," everyone is naturally selling off.

Severe ETF Fund Withdrawal

In the past three weeks, US Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of over $3 billion. Yesterday alone, BlackRock clients redeemed $145 million.

Institutions are constantly selling, and retail investors simply can't keep up.

This market movement didn't happen overnight; it started declining at the end of October. It reflects three things:

/Tight liquidity → Any news will be amplified into a "bigger drop"

/Lack of interest rate direction → Investors are hesitant to heavily invest in risk assets

/The ETF buying spree has ended → Large investors are starting to take profits

You'll find that Bitcoin's current decline isn't due to bad news, but rather a lack of patience from investors.

These three price levels are particularly important in the future:

1. $87,000 to $85,000 → First buffer

2. $80,000 → Key lifeline

3. Once broken..." → There's a chance it will return to 74,000 (the low point in February this year).

Conversely, if it can regain 90,000, coupled with one or two positive factors (ETFs, new upgrades), market sentiment will recover quickly.

Therefore, the current question isn't "whether it will fall or not," but rather: Will the Fed cut interest rates in December? What will cause ETFs to reverse their outflows and flow back in?

These are the things that truly determine the next phase of Bitcoin's price movement.

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has ended, but will it only last until January 1st next year?

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history has finally come to an end. The House of Representatives passed the bill less than 2 hours ago, and Trump signed it immediately, allowing the government to reopen.

However, this also brings about many new problems.

First: How serious was this shutdown?
It lasted for 43 days, dragging from October 1st until now. Over 670,000 federal employees were forced to take unpaid leave, nearly the same number were “working without pay,” and the airline industry is facing a staffing shortage, causing chaos in U.S. flights. The biggest beneficiaries of this reopening will be the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel rush, which won't completely collapse.

Second: Why is it said that this reopening won't last long?
Because this spending bill only lasts until January 30th next year. By then, the two parties will have to argue over the budget once again.

More critically, the subsidies for the 24 million people relying on Obamacare are set to expire at the end of the year. Will they be renewed? This issue remains unresolved. The subsidies are one of the biggest points of contention between the two parties, and the Senate will vote again in December. If they can't settle this, another shutdown is very likely at the end of January.

Third: Both parties are blaming each other, and no one wins.
Polls show that 50% of Americans blame the Republicans, while 47% blame the Democrats. The conclusion is that everyone is dissatisfied. Senators criticizing the Trump administration's cruelty is pointless, and the Trump team retorts that the Democrats are intentionally harming the country.

After all the shouting, there is still no consensus.

Fourth: How serious is the economic impact?
To be honest, it's quite severe. Economists estimate that for every six weeks the government is shut down, U.S. GDP drops by at least 0.1%. Furthermore, the new bill will cause U.S. debt to balloon by an additional $1.8 trillion each year. The government has reopened, but the fiscal pressure has not improved at all.

Finally, what should we look out for in the future?
Will the subsidy vote in December be renewed? The budget battle on January 30th will include aviation, food assistance, and the speed of restoring benefits. All of these directly affect U.S. economic sentiment and influence global market risk appetite.

0.168 all take profit sold, 0.15 bravely added half position

Why didn't you take advantage of this wave of rising prices?
Trading goes against human nature!

I have noticed a very common problem
Many people do not have their own trading logic
They are unclear about entry and exit points
They only ask why when prices rise or fall?
When you are unclear about the situation
Your life and death are in the hands of others
If you choose to be a soldier (unable to understand the market)
You must believe
You will definitely walk to the end with the king and achieve victory
What you need to do is to unconditionally believe in the king
(Of course, you need to find a real king; I mean, you need to have your own judgment or follow smart people)

I want to share why this time I relied on BTC to buy low from 99000 to 16208 in spot trading and was able to profit.

First of all, I believe my king @Picklecat
And I trust her

She will generously share the big direction, and the thinking logic...
Why do I think this way? What is the basis for my judgment? Why emphasize macro over indicators?

The battle plan has already been deployed
Next is the most against human nature part
That is, we have to be our own king
I know
This goes against human nature so much
Strictly execute the trading strategy
Ignore the price fluctuations
For example, operate ETH buy below 3600
But the price spiked to 3057, making most people hesitant to act
Late at night, I sat in a dark room holding my phone
Not sure which is more dazzling:
The glowing screen or the falling curve
I told myself
I want to be that 1% of people
Buy!
Buy low
Buy more as it falls
Spot trading is not scary
To be honest
In practice... it's hard, really hard
I know the market is trying to disrupt my judgment
So during this time, I don't look at various communities much
(Even my own community is rarely operated, I feel ashamed)
Those who understand, understand
I prefer to spend time on first-hand information, research reports, and financial reports

Actually, I have always focused on dollar-cost averaging BTC and rarely pay attention to mainstream altcoins, but this time the cat has brought me considerable benefits and more dimensions of thinking
#ETH #美国政府停摆 #BTC

Is market consensus important?
I think it is too important. Quantitative easing officially starts in December, and the market believes liquidity has returned. ETFs are starting to move, and after a net outflow of 660 million dollars over 6 days, the BTC ETF finally saw a net inflow of 240 million dollars on the 6th. There are too many data impacts in December,

- December 10: US November Consumer Price Index (CPI), real wages, etc.
- December 11: US November Producer Price Index (PPI)
- December 16: US November Import and Export Price Index
- December 19: US third quarter GDP final estimate + corporate profit revision

This is positive for the stock market, gold, and the cryptocurrency space. Plus, the US federal government will eventually end the shutdown, most leverage will be cleared, and if altcoin ETFs are approved, with good GDP data, unexpectedly, this will be the last bite of meat we have in 2025.

The Federal Reserve stops tapering in December, buy the dip or escape?

Major good news, the Federal Reserve will not taper starting from December 1. In plain language, it means they will no longer take money back, but they are not immediately printing money again. Many people hear this and get excited: "Wow, QE is coming back, the bull market is about to take off!" But wait, this time the situation is completely different from that in 2020.

First, we need to look at the overall environment. The wave of layoffs in the U.S. has returned, with about 150,000 jobs cut in October, an increase of 175% compared to last year, the highest for the same month in 20 years. Looking at the market, Bitcoin has fallen 20% from its October high, briefly dropping below $100,000, and the U.S. stock market is also moving sideways at high levels.

But strangely, the funds in ETFs have not all withdrawn; funds are still slowly flowing into ETFs like Bitcoin and Ethereum. This means that big money hasn't fled, it's just become more cautious.

So what does 'stopping tapering' really mean?

Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been pulling money back—tapering. Now, they have decided not to pull back for the time being. Although money hasn't started being printed wildly, at least it won't be withdrawn anymore. This makes the market feel that liquidity will return. Therefore, the stock market, cryptocurrencies, and gold—all risk assets—believe this is good news.

However, don’t celebrate too early; inflation is still high, the U.S. stock market is hitting new highs, and government debt is exploding. Relaxing policy at this time is like giving a stimulant to a patient— it indeed provides a boost in the short term, but the problems become bigger afterward.

Ray Dalio from Bridgewater has directly stated, "This round of easing is not to save the bubble, but to create a bubble."

If inflation inevitably rises again, the Federal Reserve will definitely have to raise interest rates and tighten monetary policy again, and by that time, the market could be hit even harder. This exposes the problem of excessive leverage and triggers a sharp sell-off in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies.

It’s time again to predict the market: this wave may rise for a while, then be brought back down by reality. If it drops in November, buy; December could be a small bull window, but in January and February next year, be cautious of "counter-kills."

I believe the current market—can make money, but more importantly, you need to learn to run.

Is it difficult to buy spot during a black swan event?

Yes, very difficult

"Why did it drop again?" "My position is almost gone"

"How much longer will it drop?" "I never thought I would experience a bear market"

Unfortunately, this bloody wash is far from over

I call it: "Bloody November"

Do not try to catch the bottom and go long

Holding high leverage and heavily betting on altcoins

Those who do not understand position management will experience even greater despair

This is the tuition fee that must be paid to the market

Do not think like 99% of people

If you are a brave hunter

While others panic, you are greedy

And if you are lucky enough to survive until December

Then the prey you capture will sell for a very good price

You know what kind of prey I am referring to, right?

#BTC #ETH

It is expected that the decline in BTC will last until the end of November, and there are no significant benefits in the coming month to reverse the trend.

Recently, many people have asked me how I view the recent market; I’m not particularly optimistic. Currently, it seems that this wave of decline may continue until the end of November.

Why? Because there is no clear positive news, only uncertainty.

The recent US-China tariff conflict in October has ended, and China agreed to three requests from the US, including delaying the export restrictions on rare earths, resuming imports of US soybeans, and lowering tariffs. The result was - US stocks rose, gold fell, but Bitcoin dropped by nearly 10%.

The entire market is almost numb to positive news, which indicates that the bullish momentum is rapidly fading.

Why is it so weak? The first key - is the Federal Reserve. Although the FOMC cut interest rates by 0.25% at the end of October, Powell's statement extinguished market confidence: he hinted that there might not be another cut in December. As a result, the expectation for a rate cut plummeted from 91% to 55%. Bitcoin immediately fell another 2%. This is what is called - policy benefits cannot outweigh a single hawkish remark.

The second key - is on-chain data. The crash on October 10 liquidated $19 billion in leveraged positions, draining the market's rebound momentum. No new money is coming in, only trading volume is being pulled.

The third key - trading is active but lacks direction. The trading volume on decentralized exchanges (DEX) reached a record high in October, hitting $613.3 billion, while CEX also surged to $2.17 trillion, 28% more than the previous month. This means that funds are indeed moving, but they are all reallocating for risk aversion, not genuinely going long.

It can be said that the US-China summit and the interest rate decision in October did not help Bitcoin emerge from the gloom. Currently, market sentiment indicators remain at a low point, and the real direction may only become clear after the inflation and employment data at the end of November are released.

Is the bull market back?

Bitcoin has retraced nearly half of the plunge in October, and the market views Bessent's remarks as a signal that the trade war is about to end and the market will rebound to historical highs. Is this really the case?

In the past few days, there have been a plethora of positive news: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that there has been "substantial progress" in the trade agreement between China and the U.S., and it is highly likely that the 100% tariffs will not be implemented; he also mentioned that these tariff threats are just bargaining chips. How about inflation? The September CPI annual rate is 3%, and the core is also 3%, both lower than expected, with the market betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. Even Trump pardoned Zhao Changpeng. Regardless of what happened behind the scenes, we can feel a strong signal being sent to the crypto industry about the "policy direction".

So what happened? Bitcoin immediately bounced by 3.2%. Is the bull market really back? Hold on, let's go through the key points in chronological order to see clearly "when real money comes in and when it withdraws".

① 10/28–29 Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the market is almost betting on a 0.25% rate cut. Therefore, the focus is not on "cutting", but on whether the post-meeting language is hawkish or dovish. According to the script, it is highly probable that there will be a decline followed by a rise. I would choose to buy on dips, and I will share more details in the community with you all.

② 10/30 (expected) U.S. Treasury QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement), if the rate cut is like giving money with the left hand, then issuing bonds to absorb liquidity is the right hand, which means the U.S. Treasury will issue a bit more long-term treasury bonds to borrow money. So what will the result be? Suddenly there will be many treasury bonds in the market, just like a supermarket stocking a pile of new goods; if there aren’t enough buyers, the price will naturally drop, and interest rates will be pushed up. Once interest rates rise, funds will prefer to buy treasury bonds for stable interest rather than speculating in stocks or cryptocurrencies.

③ 10/31 monthly options expiration (BTC/ETH large monthly) the pull before and after expiration is most likely to "wash direction". Don’t chase highs and sell lows on that day; wait until settlement to see the real buying pressure.

④ 11/1 is the nominal effective date of tariffs, and Bessent said "may not be implemented"; pay attention to these two words: may. If the negotiations fail, the 100% tariffs could be implemented at any time, and the market will turn on a dime.

In the next article, we will discuss the dollar depreciation crisis.