saylor

Something unusual is happening in the macro data right now, and it deserves more attention than it's getting.Bitcoin and the dollar are moving in near-perfect opposition. It hasn't been this extreme in almost four years.
The correlation between BTC and the DXY dollar index has hit approximately −0.91 — the strongest negative relationship since August 2022. In plain terms: every time the dollar weakens, Bitcoin strengthens in almost perfect lockstep. And every time the dollar catches a bid, Bitcoin pulls back.Why does this matter? Because it tells you what Bitcoin has become in this market. It's not behaving like a speculative risk asset right now. It's behaving like a dollar hedge — the same role gold has played for decades. Market analyst Mati Greenspan said Bitcoin has not gone through a "winter," rather a pullback within a broader bull market, adding the next leg up for Bitcoin will be driven by nation-state adoption.
Michael Saylor said "winter is over" for Bitcoin when the cryptocurrency traded above $78,000, even as some analysts disputed that the recent downturn qualified as a full crypto winter.
Here's what's interesting about the current price action. Bitcoin futures open interest fell over 6% in 24 hours, pointing to leverage unwinding as prices stalled below $80,000. BTC's 24-hour open interest–adjusted cumulative volume delta has flipped negative, meaning sellers are hitting the bid more than buyers are lifting the ask. Annualized perpetual funding rates remain slightly negative, indicating dominance of bearish short positions.
This combination — price at $77.5K–$78.5K, leverage unwinding, negative funding, bears still in control of derivatives — is what analysts are calling the "most hated rally" in crypto history. The price has gone up significantly. And the majority of the market is still betting against it.Bitcoin is establishing itself as the defensive asset within crypto, losing only 21 basis points while major altcoins shed 2–3%. This divergence pattern — BTC dominance climbing to 58.1% with volume below average — typically precedes either a broad market reversal as altcoins capitulate, or a directional BTC breakout that eventually pulls alts higher.
The most hated rallies tend to be the most durable ones. When everyone expects a crash and positions accordingly, the crash needs an enormous catalyst to materialize — because every dip gets bought by people who missed the initial move. The bears keep paying funding to hold their shorts. Every day they stay short and price doesn't collapse is a day they lose money.At some point, the shorts give up. That's when the next leg higher begins. Watch the funding rate. When it flips positive and shorts start covering — that's the signal.
#bitcoin #DXY #MacroCrypto #Saylor #BullMarket

Chaque lundi, Michael Saylor publie un point orange sur X. Ce lundi était différent. Le nombre derrière ce point était de 2,54 milliards de dollars. La stratégie a acheté 34 164 bitcoins pour environ 2,54 milliards de dollars la semaine dernière à un prix moyen de 74 395 $ par pièce. Les achats portent le total des avoirs de l'entreprise à 815 061 BTC, acquis pour environ 61,56 milliards de dollars à un coût moyen de 75 527 $.
C'est le troisième plus grand achat en une seule semaine dans l'histoire de la stratégie — derrière seulement les achats de 55 500 BTC et 51 780 BTC en novembre 2024. Ce qui rend cette semaine particulièrement remarquable, c'est la façon dont les achats ont été répartis. Le 13 avril, la stratégie a enregistré une journée historique avec environ 7 741 BTC achetés en une seule session. Le lendemain, elle a déjà dépassé ce record avec un achat supplémentaire de 9 364 BTC. Au cours de ces deux jours seulement, le volume cumulé a atteint 17 204 BTC — une augmentation de 518 % par rapport à la moyenne des quatre semaines précédentes.