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Bitcoin Weekly Analysis:
Is it going to $60k or $100k ?
Bitcoin is trading above the $75,000 level, which is a key weekly support level on the chart. This zone was retested recently, and how price behaves here will decide the next major move.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin has dropped below the 20W moving average and the 50W moving average.
From here, there are two clear scenarios.
SCENARIO 1
Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low and $75k becomes the bottom. For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to hold the April 2025 lows and form a higher low.
What would that mean?
The long-term trend stays in place: higher highs and higher lows. The move down to $75k becomes a pullback, not a trend break.
Now connect it to moving averages:
The 20-week MA moving below or pressing into the 50-week MA is a bearish signal, yes. But it does not automatically mean a bear market.
It can also be a late signal after a heavy correction. So Bitcoin needs to stop making lower lows in this $75k area.
For the 4 year cycle to break, Bitcoin needs to reclaim and close above the 50W MA which is currently at $100,400.
A clean weekly close above this area would signal that momentum has finally reset back in favor of bulls.
Most importantly, it needs to hold above the April 2025 low and start building weekly closes that show buyers are stepping back in.
SCENARIO 2
Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low and downside targets open up. This scenario is simple:
If Bitcoin breaks the April 2025 low, the structure changes. At that point:
The higher low structure fails.
The $75k support no longer holds.
If that happens, the $50k–$60k zone becomes the first downside area because it is a major psychological zone and a common reset range after a high-to-low correction.
WHAT DECIDES WHICH SCENARIO WINS?
1. Does Bitcoin hold $75,000 on weekly closes or not?
2. Does Bitcoin break the April 2025 low or not?
If $75k and the April 2025 low holds: Scenario 1 stays alive.
If $75k breaks and the April 2025 low breaks: Scenario 2 becomes the higher-probability path.
Bitcoin vs. Silver: Just dipped under 1,000x. Is it heading back toward 500x?
Right now, at the end of January, the Bitcoin/silver ratio is sitting around 1,000x. That puts it right back into the same 500-1,000x zone we saw for a couple of years between 2018 and 2020.
Coming down from almost 3,500x at the start of 2025 is a massive, almost historic drop. Moves like that often set up a nice bounce, but they can also mean the market is seriously rethinking whether Bitcoin should still be valued so far ahead of silver, a metal that has been money and industrial feedstock for thousands of years.
So yes, there could be a possible short-term relief rally, or it could be the beginning of a longer-term reality check. We’ll see which one wins out.
(as as promised @Square-Creator-bc9b4a483a75 )
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Certaines récompenses ou programmes Binance sont limités selon les lois et règles locales. Binance bloque donc l’accès automatiquement.
En résumé :
Tu es au bon endroit mais la porte est fermée pour ta région 🚪❌
Tu peux toujours utiliser Binance normalement, juste pas cette campagne-là.
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Tu peux Publier sur Binance Square (sans récompense) même si la campagne est bloquée, tu peux partager tes avis, apprendre, échanger et gagner en visibilité.
Programmes Binance accessibles selon régions :
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Bonne journée 🥰
Bienveillament ✨️
#PATRICIABM 🌹💖💫
Silver. Right now. Same ounce. Same metal.
New York COMEX: $80
Shanghai SGE: $111
India MCX: $93
Japan retail: $120
Kuwait retail: $106
40% spread between New York and Shanghai.
The largest sustained divergence in precious metals history.
The arbitrage is obvious. Buy COMEX at $80. Ship to Shanghai. Sell at $111. Pocket $29.
Nobody can do it.
COMEX has 108.7 million registered ounces. Paper claims against them: 1.586 billion. Fourteen owners for every ounce that exists. In the first week of January, 33.45 million ounces were physically pulled from the vault. 26% of registered inventory gone in seven days.
One-month lease rates exploded to 8%. Normal is 0.3%. The cost of borrowing silver to arbitrage now exceeds the profit from the trade.
The mechanism that should close the gap is economically dead.
January 30. COMEX crashes 31% to $78. Worst day since 1980. Same day, Shanghai Futures Exchange settles at 29,487 RMB per kilogram. An all-time high. Two exchanges. Same metal. Opposite directions.
January 1, 2026. Beijing reclassifies silver as a strategic material. 44 companies licensed to export. They control 60 to 70% of global refined supply. The gate is locked.
Samsung stopped trusting the exchange entirely. Bypassed COMEX. Locked a direct two-year exclusive offtake deal with a Canadian mine for 100% of output. When the world's largest semiconductor buyer secures silver straight from the ground, the exchange doesn't have a pricing problem. It has a credibility problem.
There are two silver markets now. One trades electrons. The other trades atoms.
The atoms aren't lying.