原油

🚨Breaking Major News｜Reuters: OPEC+ again increases daily crude oil production by 188,000 barrels in August

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, and oil-producing countries continue to loosen supply month by month

WTI crude oil has fallen sharply from its early-June peak of $105 to $68.77, with prices back in the pre-war range

As supply increments continue to be released, crude oil prices face sustained long-term pressure, and expectations of weakness in the energy sector strengthen
$CL
#原油 #OPEC

1、Background Overview

Recently, shipping disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz have remained one of the key variables in the global energy market. Although transit volumes have shown some repair, U.S. refiners’ profit margins have simultaneously strengthened, indicating that the issue is not only about “whether goods can be shipped,” but also about “whether shipping is smooth and whether costs are rising.” A Bloomberg report points to a critical signal: friction still exists in the global crude oil and refined products supply chain, especially in areas such as vessel schedules, insurance, rerouting arrangements, and regional inventory rebalancing. This directly boosts refiners’ bargaining power in the refining segment.⛽

2、Core Analysis

From the perspective of the industry chain, an increase in refiners’ profit margins typically means the price spread between crude oil purchase costs and refined products sales prices widens. Even if crude oil transportation has partially resumed, the market remains wary of potential disruptions. As a result, freight rates, risk premiums, and inventory replenishment demand stay elevated. In this environment, U.S. refineries with stable feedstock sources, strong inventory management capabilities, and regional sales networks are more able to convert uncertainty into profits.

Another point worth attention is that logistics bottlenecks have not fully disappeared. Shipping recovery does not automatically mean the supply chain has returned to normal. Port dispatching, vessel turnaround, delivery timelines, and regional mismatches can all continue to put pressure on terminal markets. For refining companies, as long as refined products supply remains tight and alternative transportation capacity is limited, the cracking spread has the potential to stay strong. This is also why the market can simultaneously observe “transport recovery” and “record-high profit innovations.”

3、Market Impact

For the crude oil market, these signals suggest that near-term price support still exists, but the upside logic has shifted from pure production-related factors to transportation efficiency and regional supply-demand mismatches. For the refined products market, price elasticity of gasoline and diesel could continue to be higher than that of crude oil itself, and refiners and midstream traders may perform better than upstream producers.

For investors in the crypto market, these energy news items are not irrelevant either. Rising oil prices and transportation costs can lift inflation expectations, which in turn affects expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy and the valuation of risk assets. If energy prices remain elevated, the market’s bets on abundant liquidity may cool off, and high-volatility assets like BTC may be more susceptible to short-term macro sentiment shocks.📉📈

4、Conclusion

Overall, the latest developments do not reflect a single supply crisis, but rather a condition where the global energy chain is still in a state of “surface repair, internal tension.” The strengthening of U.S. refiners’ profit margins is essentially the combined result of logistics frictions, regional mismatches, and risk premiums. In the short term, if Hormuz-related transport cannot fully recover to run smoothly, refiner profits are likely to remain elevated. The linkage between energy prices and macro assets also deserves ongoing attention.

#原油 #宏观经济 #BTC

The Strait of Hormuz is opening, crude oil has plunged to $68, and it’s only a step away from its four-year low. However, downside potential is limited—any negative catalyst could trigger a rebound. I’ve already bought the dip; my target is $80.

At the same time, Trump is increasing the $1.5 trillion defense budget. SpaceX-linked military contractor newcomers are rushing to seize the race for hypersonic missile platforms—because the market always gives birth to opportunity out of despair. 🚀

#原油 #军工 #布局机会

🚀 Crude oil violently shakes out! The Strait of Hormuz opens, and oil prices are slashed to 68. But the upside below is extremely limited—historic lows at 58 are right ahead.

⚔️ Trump’s $1.5 trillion in defense spending pours into the “hypersonics track,” and SpaceX-linked military-industrial newcomer has already secured a fixed-price contract!

📉 When bad news is exhausted, good news follows—I’ve been positioned at the bottom, waiting for the wind to rise. Target is 80—hold steady and hang on tight! #原油 #军工 #神鱼crypto

⛽ International oil prices have already fallen to around $68 per barrel, but when you go to the gas station you find—prices have hardly moved at all. That’s the most “insane” part.
This time, Trump has broken the oil price issue into three ledgers—each layer more sensitive than the last.👇
First layer: International crude oil prices. Crude is down to around $68 and still shows a weakening trend.
By logic, if costs fall, retail prices should drop too—but reality is not like that.
Second layer: The midstream retail link.
Trump directly called out retailers, saying they “have no reason not to cut prices,” and even suggested a target price of about $2.5 per gallon.
The signal he released is very direct: if they deliberately don’t lower prices, it may not just be a market problem, but a “regulatory problem.”
In other words, the profit margins in the middle layer are now being openly scrutinized.
Third layer: Local tax structure (especially in California).
Trump directly pointed the finger at local tax burdens, saying some areas’ gasoline taxes are already too high—so high they’re nearing the point of being “more expensive than the oil itself.”
The core contradiction becomes this: you think you’re paying for the gasoline price, but in fact you’re paying for “taxes + structural costs.”
📌 Put the three layers together:
Crude oil drops ≠ you will definitely get cheaper gas, because there are two more “water-pumping structures” in the middle.
1) Retail profits
2) Local taxation
At its core, the problem isn’t a single price—it’s a “profit-sharing and accounting system.”
Do you think the main reason gas prices aren’t falling is because retailers’ profits are too high, or because taxes are too heavy, or because of supply-chain structure?
Click the avatar to follow me—I’ll break down the real economic logic behind these “seemingly simple, but actually layer-by-layer accounted” mechanisms.🔥#原油

#原油 June 23rd—the pullback rebound level provided is very close, and it’s likely to bounce back. Gragnov is a big paratrooper; doesn’t he know that any memo or agreement from Iran is meant to be torn up? And yet he signed it in a serious, mock-dignified manner at the G7 meeting. As expected, just a few days later that memo was torn up. The oil price being suppressed and manipulated by Gragnov is only temporary. ​​​

📉 Major macro bearish news has landed! The U.S. executes its plan to release 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve, in coordination with the IEA’s global joint release of 400 million barrels. This is meant to suppress the surge in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Currently, U.S. SPR inventories have fallen to the lowest level on record since 1983.

In the short term, oil prices face downward pressure, inflation expectations cool, and liquidity conditions for crypto risk assets improve—supporting a recovery in flows. In the mid to long term, strategic reserves are approaching their release limit, leaving far less buffer in energy supply. If geopolitics re-escalates, oil prices could easily spike again.

#宏观行情 #原油 #加密大盘 $CL

Major black swan! Iran plans to set up a Hormuz Strait offshore toll station 🔥

Iran proposes jointly with Gulf states to charge ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz!

This energy lifeline that accounts for 20% of global crude oil and 30% of natural gas—once implemented, could generate an annual revenue of USD 40 billion.

It would completely rewrite the rules of shipping and energy, lifting global crude oil risk premiums—while a new round of upswing in commodities is taking shape!

#地缘局势 #原油 #大宗商品 #霍尔木兹海峡 $CL $XAU

🔥Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are skyrocketing, with Middle Eastern tankers clearing backlogs and geopolitical panic premiums fully unraveling.

With oil prices continuing to slide, global inflation is being suppressed, and expectations for Fed rate cuts are heating up, creating a liquidity bonus window for risk assets.

In the short term, the easing supply is bullish for tech and the crypto market, but the geopolitical chess game isn't over yet, and oil price volatility will keep playing out.
$CL $BTC $XAU
#原油 #宏观流动性 #BTC #美股

🔥Iranian crude oil has significantly dropped in price, with discounts reaching up to $5 per barrel, making a mad dash for the Asian market. The Middle Eastern geopolitical oil price premiums have been completely cleared out.

Inflation pressures have eased considerably, and expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates are heating up again, providing a liquidity boost for global risk assets.

The era of high energy prices is coming to an end, and the rally for crypto and tech stocks is officially kicking off!
$CL
#原油 #宏观流动性 #BTC #美股

Bullish on crude oil! $CL
Looking at the crude oil inventory released on June 12th, the US crude stockpiles are at an all-time low. Coupled with the instability of the US-Iran situation, crude oil $CL is likely to rebound to the 100-120 range soon. Although the current WTI prices are just over $70, that's a manipulated price. After the midterm elections, crude will make a comeback, and this time, the intensity will far exceed the price action seen during the Russia-Ukraine situation. #原油 #美伊局势

Cloud Comfort 6.22 Crude Oil Afternoon Review

Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts are easing at this stage, with substantial progress in related negotiations. The geopolitical supply risk premium that previously boosted oil prices is rapidly declining. Currently, terminal demand is showing seasonal weakness and inventory accumulation issues, leading to a weak support on the consumer end. However, the overall global crude supply-demand landscape remains intact. Major consuming countries maintain high commercial inventories, refinery operations have slightly decreased, and crude imports are stable, ensuring short-term demand is adequately covered. Though the supply-demand gap has narrowed, the supply side remains generally restrained, showing no signs of large-scale increases.

After a continuous decline from the highs, the current support level is holding strong, with multiple candlestick formations showing long lower shadows, indicating a clear exhaustion of bearish selling pressure at this point. The MACD lines are still below the zero axis, but the green bars are consistently shortening, and the fast line is turning upwards, gradually forming a bullish divergence structure, with downward momentum continuing to wane. The RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone to around 40, not entering deep stagnation, showing signs of bullish intent.

Trading Strategy
Enter long positions around the 78.4 line, add to positions on a pullback to 77.2, targeting the upper range at 81.5 and 84 <a>#原油 </a>

Breaking: Oil makes a strong comeback! Iran doesn't trust the US and is preparing for both scenarios, currently on high alert!

Funny enough, I've also prepped for both outcomes.
Shorting Ethereum, going long on oil.
What's the strategy behind this? Just two days ago, I shared my thoughts in the square:
Real bearish news: The Fed's FOMC statement and the Waller press conference.
Fake bullish news: The presidents of the US and Iran signing an electronic memo.
The real bearish and fake bullish news dropped back-to-back; at that moment, ETH was pumping while oil was dumping. I read the true nature of these headlines.
So I shorted ETH at the highs and bottomed out on oil 🫡

#美伊 #原油 $BZ $CL $ETH

To be honest, I’m bullish on this oil rally. Israel is making moves again, and Iran just said they no longer trust the U.S., so the situation is heating up.

The fundamental conflicts between the U.S. and Iran have always been there, and with Israel stoking the fire, any peace talks are a long shot. Now, we just need to see if the conflict escalates further; if the Strait of Hormuz gets blocked, hitting $100 a barrel could be in the cards.

At this level, I think there's still room to go long on oil, especially since the geopolitical risks haven't faded. A pullback is just an entry opportunity. However, keep your position size in check, as any sudden positive news could flip the script at any moment.

#CL #BZ #oil

1. Background

Citigroup's latest view suggests that international oil prices still have room to drop in the near term, and they expect a retreat to the $60 to $65 per barrel range before Q1 2027. The core rationale is based on a scenario where relations between Iran and the U.S. marginally improve, and capital flows continue to normalize, which is expected to gradually enhance crude oil supply. The price trend over the next 6 to 12 months is likely to be weak. For the market, this assessment is not merely a price prediction; it reflects institutions' comprehensive judgment on global supply-demand rebalancing, declining geopolitical risk premiums, and changes in financial conditions. 🛢️

2. Core Analysis

From the supply side, if geopolitical tensions ease, the market's expectations for the return of some restricted supplies will likely increase, naturally lowering the risk premium on oil. Previously, oil prices were supported largely due to market concerns regarding the Middle East situation, shipping security, and potential sanctions disruptions; once the "worst-case scenario" is adjusted, the price center may shift downward.

On the demand side, the current pace of global economic recovery is inconsistent. While manufacturing, consumption, and trade activities show resilience, they have not formed a strong enough resonance to sustainably push oil prices higher. Citigroup's assessment indicates that future demand growth may remain moderate, making it difficult to fully absorb potential new supply. In this environment, oil prices are more likely to enter a phase of "high volatility, weak trend" adjustments.

Additionally, financial market pricing is also worth monitoring. If capital flows normalize and risk appetite improves, the pursuit of safe-haven energy premiums may weaken, leading oil prices to return more to fundamental pricing. In other words, a future drop in oil prices does not necessarily imply a sharp decline in demand; it may simply be the gradual elimination of prior geopolitical premiums. 📉

3. Potential Impact

For traditional markets, if oil prices retreat to the $60 to $65 range, it will primarily benefit high-energy-consuming industries such as aviation, logistics, and chemicals, helping to ease imported inflationary pressures and releasing more space for monetary policy in certain economies. For oil-exporting countries and energy companies, this may mean adjustments in fiscal revenue and profit expectations, with related asset valuations also under pressure.

For the crypto market, a decline in oil prices typically generates indirect effects through two paths: first, it eases inflation expectations, enhancing the market's imagination of liquidity improvement; second, it lowers energy costs, providing marginal benefits to certain high-energy-consuming industries and mining operational costs. However, a drop in oil prices does not necessarily lead to a direct rise in crypto assets; it ultimately depends on whether the trends in the dollar, interest rate expectations, and risk appetite improve in sync.

4. Conclusion

Overall, Citigroup's prediction sends a clear signal: the current market is gradually shifting from being "geopolitically driven" to being "fundamentally driven." In the short term, oil prices will still be affected by news-driven disturbances, but the mid-term logic is leaning toward a coexistence of supply improvement and moderate demand. Investors should focus on developments in geopolitical relations, OPEC+ policy direction, global inventory changes, and the macro liquidity environment, avoiding linear extrapolation from single events. For crypto users, this is more suited as a macro clue for observing global risk asset correlations rather than a direct trading signal. 📊

#原油 #宏观 #crypto

🔥Geopolitical risks have significantly cooled down! The US military has officially lifted the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz.

Global energy shipping is back in action, tensions are easing, and the oil safe-haven premium is retreating.
$CL $XAU
#国际地缘 #原油

【Is Crude Oil Inventory Sounding the Alarm? The U.S. Energy Market is Sending a Dangerous Signal】
On June 18, President Trump made a statement at the G7 press conference that caught the market's attention. He said, "At the current consumption rate, the crude oil reserves will be depleted in about 4 weeks."
Meanwhile, the latest data shows that U.S. EIA crude oil inventories dropped by 8.26 million barrels last week, far exceeding the market expectation of 3.69 million barrels. Even more concerning, the WTI crude delivery hub in Cushing has seen its inventory decline for 8 consecutive weeks, now sitting at around 20 million barrels, the lowest level since 2014, approaching what many traders consider the operational safety line.
What does this mean?
Simply put, the "barrels" in the market are becoming scarce, while demand isn't cooling off in tandem. If geopolitical tensions continue or if there are new disruptions on the supply side, energy price volatility could be further amplified.
Many traders are only focused on candlestick fluctuations, overlooking the macro signals behind them. History has repeatedly shown that real big opportunities are often hidden in data that most people ignore.
The market will never change direction due to emotions, but it will definitely be repriced due to supply-demand imbalances. Stay humble, stay patient; opportunities will always favor those who can see further.
$ETHFI $AAVE $PENDLE #原油

Oil prices have crashed, bros. WTI just smashed through $76, and Brent dipped below $80! This drop is insane, right?

Seriously, have you been going toe-to-toe with crude oil lately? With that messed-up US-Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz is heating up again, and suddenly 75 million barrels of crude are set to flood the market. It's like they're just begging to tank prices. Poor oil traders are getting wrecked.

On the flip side, SPCX is totally flexing, with SpaceX stock surging 9%, hitting a market cap of $2.7 trillion, surpassing Amazon to become the fifth largest. Elon Musk must have some incredible luck.

There are also rumors that the US is allowing Iran to sell oil now, which just makes things worse. It feels like the entire energy market is in a panic sell-off.

From a technical standpoint, oil prices have broken through key support levels, and it looks like we might keep probing lower in the short term. But then again, who knows with geopolitics? Ukraine just hit the Moscow refinery, and Russia surely won't take that lying down.

NFA DYOR

#原油 #加密货币 #地缘政治 #SpaceX #Fed

79.46 USD.
It’s dropped 12.7% in a week, but honestly, I feel even less secure. ⛽
Everyone's betting on a US-Iran deal, the Strait of Hormuz reopening, and Iranian oil making a comeback.
Oil prices are down, which seems like "good news".
But there's another thing that's keeping me on edge—
the US strategic petroleum reserve is down to 340 million barrels.
That's the lowest since 1983.
The release back in 2022 was to stabilize oil prices. When they tried to replenish it, they found prices were even higher. It’s like those moments in life where you think, "If only I had waited a bit longer."
The RBA said today: no short-term fix for oil supply issues, energy prices and inflation are still going to keep climbing.
I stared at that statement for a long time.
Turns out, "security"—whether for a nation or a family—needs enough "backup funds".
The current script is "peaceful price drop".
But what if the script suddenly flips? Hurricanes, geopolitical conflicts, the Middle East's unpredictability—any spark could send oil prices skyrocketing.
In the short term, we might see more dips, hovering around 75 isn’t out of the question.
But in the long term, at this level, I actually see it as a slowly accumulating opportunity.
Not because I'm brave, but because I see that "thin as paper" safety cushion.
Would you reach out to catch at this level? Or would you wait a bit longer? Let’s chat about your thoughts in the comments 👇
#原油 #美伊协议

🛢️ Middle East tensions ease, but oil prices are the biggest losers

What was the market most afraid of recently?

The answer is simple:

The Strait of Hormuz.

Over 20% of the world’s crude oil transport passes through here.

When war escalates,

oil prices fluctuate daily.

However, with recent news of progress in the US-Iran agreements,

the market quickly changed its tune.

📉 Crude oil prices dropped

📈 US stocks rose

📈 Risk assets rebounded

Everyone suddenly realized:

The market isn’t as scared of war.

But of uncertainty.

When the worst-case scenario doesn’t materialize,

capital flows back into the market.

But here’s the kicker.

If the agreement faces new hurdles,

will oil prices soar again?

This could become one of the key focal points for the global market moving forward.

#原油 #特朗普 #中东局势 #美股 #财经热点