美债

What is the U.S. 20-year Treasury doing? It’s like a mess.
The monthly line has a death cross and prices are falling on the smaller timeframes.
Something big is about to happen.#美债

China's Treasury holdings have dipped to a new 18-year low.

This doesn't simply mean "dumping US assets"; it's more like a long-term reallocation of global reserve assets.

For decades, US Treasuries have been a safe haven for global capital. However, with the rise of gold, RMB assets, and diversification needs, countries are reducing their reliance on a single asset.

The shifts in an era often don't happen overnight; they unfold gradually through a series of data updates.

Global capital is transitioning from a "single-polar allocation" to a "multi-polar allocation".
In the next decade, the logic of asset allocation may prove to be more critical than the assets themselves.

#美债 #黄金 #全球资产配置 #中国美债持仓创18年新低

Comparison of National Government Debt (Latest Data as of June 2026, Ranked by RMB Scale):

🇺🇸 USA: $39.2 trillion (about ¥265 trillion), accounting for 120-130% of GDP
🇨🇳 China: about ¥100 trillion, accounting for 60-90% of GDP (official figures)
🇯🇵 Japan: ¥1,324 trillion (about ¥56 trillion), accounting for 200-250% of GDP
🇷🇺 Russia: about $4.9 trillion (about ¥33 trillion)
🇫🇷 France: about €3.54 trillion (about ¥28 trillion)
🇬🇧 UK: about £2.94 trillion (about ¥27 trillion)
🇩🇪 Germany: about €2.8 trillion (about ¥22 trillion)
🇰🇷 South Korea: about ₩1,303 trillion (about ¥5.8 trillion)

The USA is far ahead, with China close behind. In the fiat era, debt will only keep piling up—that's why you need Bitcoin.

#美债 #全球债务 #比特币 #macro

US Treasury yields have skyrocketed to 4.56%, something big is about to go down.

Oil prices have surged but pulled back, and the Middle East powder keg is still smoldering. Trump is losing his cool, claiming no one is talking peace. Right now, the market feels like it's dancing on a knife's edge; I bet there's going to be a major volatility next week.

If you're bullish, hit 1; if you're bearish, hit 2. If you're wrong, I'll do a live stream doing a handstand while drinking bubble tea. #美债 #global market

US Treasury yields skyrocketed by 10 basis points in a single day to 4.53%. This move is seriously intense.

Don’t be fooled by the small numbers; in the bond market, this is like a sprint.

As yields rise, mortgage rates shoot up, and borrowing costs go through the roof, leaving companies in a major downtrend.

This action is even more thrilling than the crypto scene. Follow me to see how the bond market can crash the whole game. #美债 #financialmarket

The bond market is becoming the real red line for the Don

Every time the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield creeps near 4.5%, the market gets jittery. Whenever it drifts towards 4.7%, the White House can't sit still. This isn't just a yield curve; it's clearly the mood curve of the Don.

#美债 #Trump

In the bond market, the real trouble isn't just rates going up or down.

It's hearing about rate cuts while the prices start making room for rate hikes.

Kevin Warsh has sworn in as Fed Chair. This is a delicate moment; on one hand, there's political pressure for rate cuts still echoing in the market, and on the other, 2026 rate hikes are starting to get priced in. Waller's remarks are more straightforward: stop treating rate cuts as a given; inflation isn't going down, and rate hikes are still on the table.

This isn't just a slogan for US Treasuries. Looking at the short end for policy direction, and the long end considering inflation, fiscal issues, and term premium. If the market continues to believe 'rate cuts are coming eventually', the short end will loosen first; if voices like Waller's keep expectations in check, the short end's downward space will narrow. The long end has it tougher because it also has to digest inflation stickiness and fiscal pressure.

US stocks can't escape this line either. High-valuation growth stocks rely on future cash flow discounting; the weaker the cheap money expectations, the more selective the valuations become. Not all stocks will be pressured together; sectors with stable cash flow and strong pricing power, along with high-duration assets supported by long-term narratives, will respond differently to the same interest rate curve.

In the first phase after Warsh takes office, the market will likely dissect every word: is there alignment with rate cut demands, and is there a commitment to inflation credibility? If the former is too strong, the long end will worry about inflation and fiscal issues; if the latter is too strong, the stock market will be concerned about liquidity expectations falling flat.

Right now, the stock-bond combo fears a single script. Rate cut trades aren't dead yet, but you can't just sit back and win. The tail risk of rate hikes isn't making noise, but it's already part of the price discussion. The trigger point for the next round of trading won't be about who shouts louder but whether inflation data can give the Fed a real way out.

#Chatting about traditional finance at Binance Square
#美债 #Federal Reserve

Yesterday, I was stressing over the full upgrade 😭

Today, we've got news of a ceasefire 🤝

As a result, US bond yields just took a dive.

Right now, the market isn't about trading data anymore.

It's all about trading the headlines 😂
#美债

30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Breaks 5% Again, The Era of 'Everything is Cheap' is Over

The 30-year Treasury yield has once again surpassed 5%. Analysts point out that the three pillars supporting the U.S. economy's 50 years of low inflation and low interest rates—cheap capital, cheap labor, and cheap energy—are all collapsing simultaneously. The article dives into the dual possibility of AI as a 'savior or new source of inflation': in an optimistic scenario, AI boosts productivity and reduces inflation; in a pessimistic scenario, the infrastructure needed for AI drives up prices for chips, land, water resources, and electricity.

Why it matters: The new normal of high interest rates will directly impact the valuation logic and risk appetite for crypto assets. Investors should ditch the instincts of the low-rate era and prepare their positions for a sustained high-rate environment.

#美债 #美联储 #利率 #AI #macroeconomics

📡【Interest Rate Market Update｜US Treasury Yields Generally Rise】

On June 1st during the Asian trading session, US Treasury yields moved higher across the board, with short to mid-term securities showing more significant gains as the market continues to price in inflation uncertainty stemming from the Middle East situation. $XRP

📊 Key Data Performance:

* 2-Year Yield: 4.032% (+1.9bp) ⬆️
* 10-Year Yield: 4.468% (+1.6bp) ⬆️
* 30-Year Yield: 4.993% (+0.1bp) ⬆️

📌 Structural Change Signal:
Short-end > Long-end yield increase → The market is leaning more towards “short-term inflation/policy expectation disturbances,” rather than a repricing of long-term growth logic. $BTC

⚠️ Market Interpretation:
Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East continues to elevate inflation expectations, with funds repricing risk premiums at the front end of the yield curve. $ETH

#Aave获英国FCA加密注册 #美债 #美债收益率 #美伊战争 #中东局势

US Treasury yields are holding steady today like a champ, with the 10-year sitting at 4.48%, and the 2-year sneaking down to 4.06% (this move has me scratching my head but totally shook)

The market's keeping one eye on tonight's non-farm payroll data while watching oil prices slip, with ADP reporting an addition of 122k jobs in May, but unemployment claims also climbing to 215k... it's pretty surreal

Current market vibe: looking rock solid on the surface, but inside it's a total panic (those in the know, know)

#美债 #non-farm data

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has skyrocketed to 4.6%, and Steve Eisman, the inspiration for "The Big Short", previously drew a red line at 4.5%—that's when he's cashing out.

This dude is bailing out not because he's predicting a recession, but at this interest rate, no matter how solid your company is, you gotta be sweating bullets.

But here's the kicker: the S&P's Q1 earnings have surged by 28.3%, way above expectations. This split market has me totally baffled.

#美债 #美股 #interestRates

US Treasuries have completely tanked! The 30-year yield skyrocketed to 5.19%, marking a new high not seen since 2007—19 years ago! 😱

What's the deal? The last time it was this intense was right before the global financial crisis...

The 10-year yield also surged to 4.68%, while the 2-year jumped above 4.13%. There are three main reasons: inflation is spiraling out of control, April's CPI exceeded expectations; oil prices are being pushed up by the situation in Iran; and the market is starting to bet that the Fed not only won't cut rates but might actually hike them again! 💥

To add to the chaos—there was a one-hour 'surrender sell-off' in the futures market, leading to a stampede.

What are those Wall Street bigwigs saying? A Bank of America survey revealed that 62% of fund managers believe the 30-year US Treasury rate could hit 6%! Barclays and Citigroup are also chiming in, saying 5.5% isn't a pipe dream.

This isn't a joke. Mortgage rates, auto loans, and credit card interest are all on the rise, and the stock market is going to get dragged down too. 😰
#美债 $BTC $ETH
In short: the era of cheap money is officially over.

#世界级大通胀
1. Debt is not being repaid, money is losing value
US Treasuries are piling up, what’s the play? Not repaying — it’s debt monetization: simultaneously shrinking the balance sheet and cutting rates, left foot on the gas, right foot on the brakes, with one goal: to turn your cash into dust.
A dollar for an egg might just turn into five bucks down the line. Just look at Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe; they’ve walked this path.
2. Dollar depreciation, lying down and needing a hand
The US wants to devalue the dollar, but will other countries play ball? Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia aren’t going to cooperate without a fight. Plus, if the dollar loses its credibility, the foundation of global trade collapses. This isn’t just an economic war; it’s a psychological one.
3. Manufacturing returning? High oil prices will crush the competition
The US wants to bring factories back, but manufacturing fears high oil prices. So what’s the plan? Actively drive oil prices up — $150, $200, or even $250 a barrel.
Who gets hit first by high oil prices? The manufacturing giants that import oil: China, Japan, Germany, India. Once they’re in chaos, the US will leverage its shale oil and become the 'cheap place'. High oil prices are not the end goal; they’re the means to an end.
4. Geopolitical play: seizing oil is the hard truth
How do oil prices rise?
Venezuela cuts production, that’s the first blow.
Control the Strait of Hormuz — 17 million barrels of oil pass through daily; choke this route, and the global oil tank sounds the alarm.
The US might deploy ground troops in Iran. This isn’t a drill; it’s war.
Oil price target: $150–250 per barrel.
5. Time window: after the midterm elections
Waging war isn’t just a whim. It hinges on the midterm elections, who wins in the House and Senate. If action against Iran happens, it’s likely early 2027. The cards will be shuffled, and the players will take the stage.
6. How can the average person play this?
Three paths, choose your own adventure:
Oil — don’t dive straight into futures; you won’t last. Energy stocks, oil services, and shipping, ride the wave.
Gold — with war + inflation, gold is bound to soar. $3500–4000 isn’t a pipe dream.
Bitcoin — either digital gold hits $200k, or it drops to $30k in a liquidity crisis; if you’ve got a weak heart, stay away.
Lastly, a piece of advice
Don’t clutch a pile of cash; in hyperinflation, cash is just paper.
Don’t take the last baton — even if oil prices rise, there will come a day they turn around, so fish in the middle of the stream.
This is based on macro + geopolitical logic; it’s not investment advice.
#原油 #美债 #BTC

The US Treasury yield curve is about to invert, with the 10-year to 2-year spread down to just 0.4%. We're about to test the 100-week moving average.

If it can’t hold, the recession alarm will sound.

Buckle up, everyone #美债 #yield curve inversion

What the US debt is really scared of isn’t just a hawkish statement, but the market realizing it’s bet on the wrong side.

Warsh is now the Fed Chair, but Waller is being more upfront: rate cuts aren’t a given, inflation isn’t dropping, and rate hikes are still on the table. This will make short-term rates super sensitive and could put growth stock valuations under a microscope.

Regular investors just need to catch this point: when rate expectations shift, asset prices need to realign.

#Chatting about traditional finance at Binance Square
#美债 #interest rates

The US Treasury yield curve's long end is quietly flattening, manipulating the internal structure of the stock market.

Before the weekend, the 5-year yield held strong at 4.155%, up 0.6 basis points.
However, the 30-year was bought up massively, dropping 2.1 basis points to 4.972%.

The long end is taking off while the mid-section is playing dead; I'm familiar with this script.

#美债 #yield curve

I just finished lunch and casually checked the market—BTC jumped from around 58,500 in the morning to 60,200.

So tell me, is there any earth-shattering good news? No.

The core reason is just one thing—the U.S. Treasury yields fell.

A couple of days ago, Treasury yields spiked to 4.5%, which completely scared off risk assets. BTC dropped to 58,300, ETH to 1,521, and SOL to 66.5. Today, Treasury yields retreated to 4.37%. As soon as risk appetite came back, BTC quickly reclaimed levels above 60,000.

That’s it—simple and brutal logic.

This thing works better than any technical analysis.

The DXY U.S. dollar index is still hovering around 100.76 with no major change. So this move is purely driven by the bond market.

There are also a few pieces of news worth noting.

Apple is lobbying the Trump administration to get them to approve purchases of DRAM chips from China’s CXMT (ChangXin Memory). This is pretty interesting—it suggests that storage cost pressure for AI data centers has gotten so intense that even Apple has to look to China for suppliers. The DRAM ETF also included Gigadevice (兆易创新) in its holdings, with a weight of 2.91%. The memory sector is getting hotter and hotter.

Musk also made a big splash—approval to acquire Mesh Optical Technologies, a光通讯 (optical communications) company founded by former SpaceX engineers. This company makes 1.6T OSFP optical modules, mainly for high-speed interconnects in AI data centers. Musk himself has been saying the supply-demand gap for AI data centers is wildly large. AI hardware-related stocks might be primed for another round of hype.

But back to the crypto market.

It’s the weekend—liquidity will keep getting thinner.

If BTC can hold 60,000, that’s already pretty good. Don’t expect it to surge to 62,000 over the weekend. The main theme this weekend is low-volume consolidation; neither bulls nor bears will make any big moves.

The real variable is on Monday.

If U.S. stocks open higher and keep climbing, BTC may follow and surge for a bit. If U.S. stocks fall, the 60,000 level might not hold again.

I’ve already closed my contracts. I’ll just hold spot and enjoy the weekend peacefully.

$BTC #宏观 #美债 #weekend

$BTC $SOL $ETH The U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for two years now, which is one of the longest inversion periods in history.

According to the textbook, an inversion should lead to a recession within six to eighteen months.

However, the recession has yet to materialize, and some market participants are saying, "This time it's different." Employment is still strong, consumption is robust,

and tech stocks are still climbing. Has this inversion indicator become irrelevant?

It hasn't lost its relevance; it's just that the transmission is lagging. Companies' low-interest debt hasn't matured yet, and households' excess savings haven't been spent,

with fiscal stimulus still providing support.

These buffers are delaying the recession but can't prevent it indefinitely. Once these buffers are exhausted, the pressure will truly emerge.

The market is currently treating "no recession" as the baseline expectation, and this baseline has a very low margin for error.

Once the data reverses, pricing will adjust in one fell swoop. I'm not betting on the timing of the recession; I only align with those assets that don't depend on macro trends for their gains.

APIARY's computational power utilization and node growth have nothing to do with whether a recession occurs or not.

Model training won't stop just because GDP is contracting. $HNY-D6B0 is on the demand side, not in the cycle.

It's been two years of inversion; do you really think this time it's different? #美联储何时降息？ #美债

【Back from vacation and hit with double whammy: Was planning to catch the game on the rooftop, but my positions are already up there?】

Before the holiday, I was daydreaming about BTC hitting 70k and Spain crushing the group stage. But now that I'm back, it feels like the market is playing me!

Bitcoin is ranging around 64K, ETH is oscillating above 1700, and altcoins are playing dead. I was hoping for a stunning comeback like Cape Verde holding Spain to a 0-0 draw in the World Cup, but instead, we’ve gone straight into garbage time, testing my patience to the max!

Don’t get caught in a blind mindset; the big players are watching the Fed’s moves: latest treasury yields skyrocketing on 6.22 (2-year at 4.22%, 10-year at 4.50%), Brent crude oil surging over 1%, and rising inflation fears are squeezing liquidity. No wonder funds are just passing the ball around mid-field.

There are no permanent strong teams, only perpetual volatility. Are you predicting a crash this time or getting iced out of your positions? Let’s hear it in the comments!
#BTC #ETH #世界杯 #美债