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In the past seven days, about $800 million worth of 8915 Bitcoin has net flowed out of major centralized exchanges (CEX). Among them, Binance, Gemini, and Bybit have become the "main forces" in withdrawals. This phenomenon occurs against the backdrop of Bitcoin's price retracing from a high point and complex market sentiment, raising widespread attention: Are investors fleeing in panic, or quietly hoarding for the next rise?

1. Capital Flow Picture: Continuous Outflow and Short-term Fluctuations

The recent trend of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges is not coincidental.

● AiCoin data shows that this "negative net flow" pattern has been present since March 2025, indicating that the amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges consistently exceeds the amount deposited. In the earlier 30-day period, the net outflow even reached approximately 170,000 coins.

On December 5, 2025, the China Internet Finance Association and six other major financial industry associations jointly issued a rare risk warning (on preventing risks related to illegal activities involving virtual currencies and others). This document, with unprecedentedly clear wording and a comprehensive ban, has drawn a non-crossable red line for all business activities involving virtual currencies and emerging 'real-world asset tokens' within the country.

This is not an isolated industry warning. Just a week ago, the People's Bank of China led a meeting with 13 departments participating in the 'Coordination Mechanism Meeting for Combating Speculation in Virtual Currency Trading,' which for the first time officially clarified that 'stablecoins are a form of virtual currency.'

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According to the latest market data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the upcoming December meeting has reached 88.4%. Behind this seemingly 'set in stone' decision, there is a fierce policy divergence unfolding within the Federal Reserve, the likes of which have not been seen in recent years.

As the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision approaches, market expectations for a rate cut continue to heat up. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 65.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points cut is 24.8.

1. Market expectations and rate cut probabilities

● The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's 'Fed Watch' tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting is as high as 88.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only 11.6%.

🔥 Event Review

Last night around 22:04, the market began to show fluctuations, with the price of ETH/USDT on some platforms dropping to about $2998.40, attracting market attention. Shortly after, around 22:15, the price of ETH rapidly fell from about $3028 to $2942, with a decline of up to 2.83% in just 10 minutes, triggering a chain of liquidations due to high leverage positions. Then, during the period from 22:15 to 22:33, the price further declined from about $2951 to $2925, and panic sentiment spread quickly. On-chain data shows that many accounts were forcibly liquidated due to ETH dropping to about $2900, with one account attempting to quickly 'rebuild' after a loss of $738,000. Traders such as '麻吉大哥' also faced significant fluctuations in their positions and quickly restarted long positions after liquidation, reflecting the current market behavior of panic selling amidst intense volatility, as well as attempts to cut losses and rapidly regain positions. Currently, the latest observed price has dropped to about $2942.5. Although short-term market sentiment has slightly calmed, overall volatility remains intense.

While you are still focusing on breakthroughs in a single technology, tech giants have already woven AI, blockchain, and robotics into an invisible net, quietly reconstructing the underlying logic of business and society.

Sandy Carter quotes a famous line from 'Alice in Wonderland' at the beginning of her Forbes article: "You have to run twice as fast to stay in the same place." This aptly describes the current pace of technological development. In 2026, we will witness not an independent breakthrough of a single technology, but the deep integration of multiple dimensions such as AI, blockchain, robotics, and Web3.

In just over a month, spot ETFs for eight altcoins, including SOL, XRP, and DOGE, which were once regarded as 'speculative toys' by mainstream finance, have been approved for listing, attracting over $700 million in inflows, yet the prices of the related currencies have generally fallen by more than 20%.

Bitwise's XRP ETF even directly uses 'XRP' as the trading code, a bold marketing strategy that has sparked controversy in the industry. By the end of November, the assets under management of six Solana funds had reached $843 million, accounting for about 1.09% of SOL's total market value.

1. Market Sketch Under Regulatory Changes

● Wall Street in December 2025 is experiencing an unprecedented wave of cryptocurrency asset acceptance. Within less than a month, a series of altcoin spot ETFs including Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and Hedera have been listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq.

1. Japan proposes to reduce Bitcoin taxes and approve ETFs

Japan's top financial regulator has proposed reducing taxes related to Bitcoin and plans to approve Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). - Original

2. SEC Chairman: The future financial system will be based on Bitcoin.

The Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) stated that the entire financial system will operate on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the coming years, claiming, 'This will be the future of the world.' - Original

3. The price of gold has broken through $2800 per ounce, reaching a historic high, and risk aversion is rising.

In the second quarter of 2025, the average cash production cost for Bitcoin mining companies will be $74,600, with a total production cost of $137,800. - Original

Event Review 📉

Recently, the Ethereum market has experienced severe volatility. Starting from a stable range of about $3105–$3107 before the market opened, the ETH price rapidly dropped to about $2997–$3010 within just 40 minutes, with a decline of between 3.1% and 3.5%. Leverage trading has been frequent in the market, with long positions being forcibly liquidated. It was reported that the 25x leveraged ETH position held by the well-known trader Machi was partially liquidated, causing his total assets to shrink rapidly to $20.90 million. This series of events led to a sharp increase in market panic, exacerbating liquidity tension and the chain liquidation effect. Although there was a brief rebound in the market lasting a few seconds, overall, the market remains full of uncertainty.

The data from the market prediction platform Polymarket continues to fluctuate, with the probability of Kevin Hassett being elected as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve exceeding 80% at one point, while the price of Bitcoin has risen back to $93,000 amid expectations of interest rate cuts.

The winter night wind outside the Federal Reserve building is biting, but the global cryptocurrency trading terminals are heating up due to a piece of news. Current chairman Powell's term will end in May 2026, and the White House has stated that it will announce the nominee before Christmas in 2025.

The market is concerned not only with personnel changes but also with the potential shift in U.S. monetary policy and global liquidity. The Federal Reserve chairman directly influences the survival environment of the cryptocurrency industry and the flow of trillions of dollars through two 'visible hands': monetary policy and regulatory framework.

On December 5, 2025, a landmark scene appeared in the cryptocurrency market: in the OTC trading area of mainstream exchanges such as Binance, the price of 1 USDT, a stablecoin pegged to 1 dollar, fell below the psychological barrier of 7.0 yuan against the renminbi, with quotes dropping as low as 6.99 yuan.

In stark contrast, the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar announced by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange during the same period stabilized around 7.07 yuan, while the OTC price of USDT was rarely lower than the official exchange rate, creating a 'price inversion.'

This phenomenon of approximately 1% negative premium reveals that under strong regulatory signals, the deep structure and liquidity of the market are experiencing dramatic changes.

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When the 30 trillion dollar figure is officially confirmed in December 2025, the total amount of circulating national debt will have climbed to 30.2 trillion dollars in seven years, with the 'total national debt' reaching as high as 38.4 trillion dollars, rapidly approaching the statutory limit of 41.1 trillion dollars.

However, a more profound change is occurring than the expansion of scale: the cornerstone of low interest rates that has supported this vast debt system for decades has collapsed. Today, the annual interest expense of 1.2 trillion dollars is like a self-growing fiscal iceberg, its massive underwater part is quietly changing the course of the U.S. and even the global economy.

As the November 2026 U.S. mid-term elections approach, Washington's political engine is deeply intertwined with the global economy at an unprecedented intensity.

A clear logic of 'Trump's political economy' has been fully launched: its core lies in reshaping the independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy through systematic pressure and personnel arrangements; thereby creating a loose financial environment that serves the political survival goals of the mid-term elections; and ultimately transforming political momentum into concrete manifestations in the financial markets. This complex game surrounding interest rates, votes, and asset prices is redefining the operating rules of the U.S. and even global markets.

Family, the recent market in the cryptocurrency space is simply more thrilling than a roller coaster! After a sharp drop, there's a rapid recovery; within 3 days there are significant ups and downs. Some people have made a fortune, while others were caught off guard — who is really behind this wave of fluctuations?

Today, I will clarify the core reasons and provide key data along with subsequent operational ideas.

First, let me highlight the key points: the recent wave of 'sharp drop + rapid recovery' roller coaster market has two main driving forces — the expectation of interest rate hikes in Japan and the statement from the People's Bank of China, coupled with the game of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has created this extreme volatility through the collision of various forces.

Bitcoin's price is hovering on the edge of breaking the $90,000 cost line, with high electricity costs pushing a number of miners to the brink of liquidation, while Wall Street giant JPMorgan has set a long-term target price of $170,000 amid this chaos.

Recently, JPMorgan lowered its estimate of Bitcoin's production cost from $94,000 to $90,000, while the current price continues to fluctuate below this critical cost line.

High-cost miners are being forced to sell Bitcoin to maintain operations. However, JPMorgan believes in another report that Bitcoin is severely undervalued relative to gold after adjusting for volatility, and its long-term fair value should be close to $170,000.

1. BlackRock CEO calls Bitcoin a “fear asset,” holds 780,000 BTC

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated at the DealBook Summit on December 3 that Bitcoin is a “fear asset.” He believes that people hold Bitcoin out of fear for personal safety and financial security; as uncertainty increases, Bitcoin prices rise, and as fear subsides, prices fall. He pointed out that Bitcoin is different from the $13.5 trillion in assets managed by BlackRock, which represents more of “hope.” Larry Fink previously described Bitcoin in 2017 as a “vehicle for money laundering and theft.” Currently, BlackRock manages the world’s largest Bitcoin ETF, holding over 780,000 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $80 billion. -Original text

As the cryptocurrency market attempts to rebound from a deep drop, every wave pulls at the nerves of global investors. Unlike the cold data from charts, the voices of key opinion leaders (KOLs) in the market provide us with a more vivid dimension to understand this turmoil - here are near-religious declarations of faith, cold and pragmatic asset selections, and profound warnings about macro changes. Their views collide fiercely, collectively painting a complex and divided consensus landscape of the current market.

1. The Banner of Faith - 'Embrace the Volatility, Run Towards the Flame'

The stock price has halved from its historical peak, with a market value evaporating by over 60%. Once a shining star, the 'Bitcoin Whale' MicroStrategy stands on the fault line of a confrontation between the old and new financial systems.

MicroStrategy's stock price has plummeted from a high of around $300 in October 2025 to about $181 currently. This company, referred to by the market as the 'Bitcoin Bank', has seen a decline of over 40% year-to-date, with a more severe drop of over 60% in the past month.

This decline is not only astonishing in magnitude but also accompanied by a massive evaporation of market value. MicroStrategy's market value has shrunk from nearly $100 billion at its peak to about $49.26 billion. It is noteworthy that the company's stock price decline far exceeds the correction in Bitcoin itself, raising market concerns about the sustainability of its business model.