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Is the bear coming again? Bitcoin may plummet to $58,000!
Is the bear coming again? Bitcoin may plummet to $58,000!
In early 2026, the Bitcoin market failed to sustain the bullish expectations, instead showing signs of fatigue after hitting high levels. Recently, several analysts represented by Titan of Crypto issued warnings, believing that Bitcoin has signaled a bear market, and 2026 may become a year of bearish trends, with prices potentially falling significantly to around $58,000. This pessimistic prediction quickly attracted market attention. This article will deeply analyze the technical indicators, on-chain data, and market structure behind this bear market warning.
1. Core basis of the bear market prediction: technical indicators and cycle signals
In early 2026, the Bitcoin market failed to sustain the bullish expectations, instead showing signs of fatigue after hitting high levels. Recently, several analysts represented by Titan of Crypto issued warnings, believing that Bitcoin has signaled a bear market, and 2026 may become a year of bearish trends, with prices potentially falling significantly to around $58,000. This pessimistic prediction quickly attracted market attention. This article will deeply analyze the technical indicators, on-chain data, and market structure behind this bear market warning.
1. Core basis of the bear market prediction: technical indicators and cycle signals
Davos New Consensus: Tokenization is the Future
The 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos has just concluded. Unlike previous years, cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology have completely shed the label of 'novelty' at the edge of the round table, becoming a central topic that global financial leaders and policymakers cannot avoid on their agenda.
From the strategic transformation of banking giants to the resolute declarations of asset management titans, a narrative of financial system restructuring centered on 'tokenization' is spreading from a small town at the foot of the Alps to the entire world. This is no longer merely a preaching ground for crypto believers, but a milestone in the traditional financial power structure's active embrace of change.
From the strategic transformation of banking giants to the resolute declarations of asset management titans, a narrative of financial system restructuring centered on 'tokenization' is spreading from a small town at the foot of the Alps to the entire world. This is no longer merely a preaching ground for crypto believers, but a milestone in the traditional financial power structure's active embrace of change.
104,000 BTC! Whales quietly increase their positions
When new whales holding over 100,000 bitcoins quietly enter the market, a large number of retail investors are panic-selling their holdings, and the market completes a brutal turnover in the flow of funds. Bitcoin whales are hoarding digital gold at an unprecedented rate. Data shows that wallets holding at least 1,000 BTC have recently accumulated over 100,000 bitcoins.
The holdings of new whales have surpassed 100,000, valued at approximately 12 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the number of large daily transfers exceeding one million dollars has risen to a two-month high.
The gluttonous feast of the whales stands in dramatic contrast to the panic selling of ordinary investors. This market is witnessing a silent transfer of wealth.
The holdings of new whales have surpassed 100,000, valued at approximately 12 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the number of large daily transfers exceeding one million dollars has risen to a two-month high.
The gluttonous feast of the whales stands in dramatic contrast to the panic selling of ordinary investors. This market is witnessing a silent transfer of wealth.
Full-scale plunge! Three major 'black swans' strike!
Global stock markets plunged across the board in early trading, with Bitcoin declining over 3% within 24 hours, while gold broke through the $5000 mark—markets are violently swaying in a storm of 'three black swan' events intertwined with geopolitical tensions, currency interventions, and tariff threats.
As of the morning of January 26, U.S. stock futures, cryptocurrencies, and the U.S. dollar index have rarely fallen in sync, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver have soared to unprecedented highs.
The S&P 500 futures fell by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.3%. Bitcoin once plummeted over 3%, while Ethereum fell by more than 5%.
The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but clues about future interest rate cuts and rumors regarding personnel changes at the Fed will make this meeting the next 'guiding stick' for market sentiment.
As of the morning of January 26, U.S. stock futures, cryptocurrencies, and the U.S. dollar index have rarely fallen in sync, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver have soared to unprecedented highs.
The S&P 500 futures fell by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 100 futures dropped by 1.3%. Bitcoin once plummeted over 3%, while Ethereum fell by more than 5%.
The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but clues about future interest rate cuts and rumors regarding personnel changes at the Fed will make this meeting the next 'guiding stick' for market sentiment.
Gold Breaks $5,000, Bitcoin Retreats: Reshaping Asset Risk Aversion Logic
The price of gold has historically exceeded the $5,000 per ounce mark for the first time, while Bitcoin has fallen more than 10% from its peak. Global asset allocation is undergoing a profound shift in risk aversion logic.
In terms of silver, the price has first surpassed $106 per ounce, a figure that is nearly four times the silver price five years ago.
1. Market Milestone
● On January 26, 2026, during the Asian trading session, the international spot gold price historically broke through the $5,000 per ounce threshold, reaching a peak of $5045.6 during trading. This breakthrough occurred just over 100 days after gold first surpassed $4,000, setting a new record for the speed of increase in the global gold market.
In terms of silver, the price has first surpassed $106 per ounce, a figure that is nearly four times the silver price five years ago.
1. Market Milestone
● On January 26, 2026, during the Asian trading session, the international spot gold price historically broke through the $5,000 per ounce threshold, reaching a peak of $5045.6 during trading. This breakthrough occurred just over 100 days after gold first surpassed $4,000, setting a new record for the speed of increase in the global gold market.
AiCoin Daily Report (January 26)
1. Michael Saylor announces Strategy is increasing its Bitcoin holdings
Michael Saylor announces that Strategy plans to purchase more Bitcoin, with specific amounts and timing yet to be disclosed. -Original
2. Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings plan to launch Japan's first cryptocurrency ETFs
Nomura Holdings, SBI Holdings, and other financial groups plan to launch Japan's first cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, which are expected to be approved as early as 2028. -Original
3. The spot gold price increased by 1% during the day, reported at $5036.18 per ounce
4. The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is progressing, which may affect the security of user assets
The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is progressing. If passed, it may provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets, enhancing security and reducing the atmosphere of illegal activities. After the bill is passed, cryptocurrencies may be integrated into the U.S. financial system, attracting more investment and increasing the value of existing assets, although investment returns may be affected by the latest negotiations. -Original
Michael Saylor announces that Strategy plans to purchase more Bitcoin, with specific amounts and timing yet to be disclosed. -Original
2. Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings plan to launch Japan's first cryptocurrency ETFs
Nomura Holdings, SBI Holdings, and other financial groups plan to launch Japan's first cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, which are expected to be approved as early as 2028. -Original
3. The spot gold price increased by 1% during the day, reported at $5036.18 per ounce
4. The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is progressing, which may affect the security of user assets
The U.S. cryptocurrency bill is progressing. If passed, it may provide a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets, enhancing security and reducing the atmosphere of illegal activities. After the bill is passed, cryptocurrencies may be integrated into the U.S. financial system, attracting more investment and increasing the value of existing assets, although investment returns may be affected by the latest negotiations. -Original
Davos Heavyweight: BlackRock Bets Global Assets on Ethereum
At the Davos Forum podium, Larry Fink, head of the world's largest asset management company, announced that the wave of tokenization is unstoppable, and a universal blockchain will be the future financial infrastructure that supports all of this.
Just at the recently concluded Davos World Economic Forum, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that tokenization is an inevitable trend, and the future belongs to a universal blockchain platform.
The crypto community quickly interpreted that the universal blockchain hinted at by this financial giant, who manages nearly $10 trillion in assets, is Ethereum. BlackRock's flagship tokenization fund BUIDL is built on Ethereum.
Just at the recently concluded Davos World Economic Forum, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that tokenization is an inevitable trend, and the future belongs to a universal blockchain platform.
The crypto community quickly interpreted that the universal blockchain hinted at by this financial giant, who manages nearly $10 trillion in assets, is Ethereum. BlackRock's flagship tokenization fund BUIDL is built on Ethereum.
AiCoin Daily (January 25)
1. The White House claims that the United States is the global cryptocurrency center
The White House stated that the United States is the global center of cryptocurrency. - Original
2. Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canada
President Trump threatened that if Canada reaches an agreement with China, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Canada. - Original
3. Becerra hinted that U.S.-India tariffs may have the possibility of easing
U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated on Friday in Davos that the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. have significantly reduced India's oil purchases from Russia, and the U.S. may cancel these additional tariffs on India. He described the tariff measures as providing substantial benefits to the U.S. economy and pointed out that Indian refineries' purchases of Russian oil have 'collapsed.' Becerra hinted that as long as India changes its energy sources, there is a diplomatic 'path' to cancel the tariffs. - Original
The White House stated that the United States is the global center of cryptocurrency. - Original
2. Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canada
President Trump threatened that if Canada reaches an agreement with China, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Canada. - Original
3. Becerra hinted that U.S.-India tariffs may have the possibility of easing
U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra stated on Friday in Davos that the 25% tariffs imposed by the U.S. have significantly reduced India's oil purchases from Russia, and the U.S. may cancel these additional tariffs on India. He described the tariff measures as providing substantial benefits to the U.S. economy and pointed out that Indian refineries' purchases of Russian oil have 'collapsed.' Becerra hinted that as long as India changes its energy sources, there is a diplomatic 'path' to cancel the tariffs. - Original
One Year Since Trump's Return to the White House: How 'Lie Politics' Reshapes America and the World?
Trump claimed at the Davos forum that he has defeated inflation, while the economic data reports in the hands of the audience showed that the U.S. inflation rate still stands at 2.7%—this scene has become a microcosm of his governance style during his second term.
On January 20, 2026, it will be one year since Trump returned to the White House. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, facing global political and business elites, he once again made a series of shocking statements: claiming to have defeated inflation, that the U.S. economy is thriving, and that the southern border has been completely closed.
Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to suspend its tariff agreement with the United States, as tensions rise between the U.S. and Europe over the sovereignty dispute of Greenland, and the Supreme Court is about to make a key ruling on Trump's tariff policy.
On January 20, 2026, it will be one year since Trump returned to the White House. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, facing global political and business elites, he once again made a series of shocking statements: claiming to have defeated inflation, that the U.S. economy is thriving, and that the southern border has been completely closed.
Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing to suspend its tariff agreement with the United States, as tensions rise between the U.S. and Europe over the sovereignty dispute of Greenland, and the Supreme Court is about to make a key ruling on Trump's tariff policy.
AiCoin Daily Report (January 24)
1. The Bank of Japan maintains the interest rate, and inflation is cooling
The Bank of Japan announced that it will maintain the interest rate, and the inflation data for December has slightly declined. -Original
2. Standard Chartered Bank recommends paying attention to Ethereum and Bitmine stocks
Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that although Ethereum has recently experienced a significant drop like other cryptocurrencies, the network's transaction volume has reached a historical high following the December Fusaka upgrade, which alleviated capacity bottlenecks and boosted on-chain activity. Meanwhile, the largest corporate holder of ETH, Bitmine, continues to accumulate Ethereum. Additionally, the easing of tariff risks in Greenland, the rebound of the Japanese bond market, and the rising expectations of Rick Rieder, BlackRock's head of fixed income, becoming the chair of the Federal Reserve have all created a favorable environment for risk assets. He believes that going long on Ethereum and Bitmine (BMNR) before the weekend offers a good risk-reward ratio. -Original
The Bank of Japan announced that it will maintain the interest rate, and the inflation data for December has slightly declined. -Original
2. Standard Chartered Bank recommends paying attention to Ethereum and Bitmine stocks
Geoff Kendrick, the global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that although Ethereum has recently experienced a significant drop like other cryptocurrencies, the network's transaction volume has reached a historical high following the December Fusaka upgrade, which alleviated capacity bottlenecks and boosted on-chain activity. Meanwhile, the largest corporate holder of ETH, Bitmine, continues to accumulate Ethereum. Additionally, the easing of tariff risks in Greenland, the rebound of the Japanese bond market, and the rising expectations of Rick Rieder, BlackRock's head of fixed income, becoming the chair of the Federal Reserve have all created a favorable environment for risk assets. He believes that going long on Ethereum and Bitmine (BMNR) before the weekend offers a good risk-reward ratio. -Original
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Asia has not yet ended, and Singapore continues to reach new highs
PCE is late but here, the Federal Reserve may remain inactive in January!
1. Delayed data and distorted signals
● Recently released data on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reveals a unique economic observation window. This data, which should have been released earlier, was delayed due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, and only now reveals the economic situation for November 2024.
● The inflation indicator most favored by the Federal Reserve has emerged in this special context, its authority has been directly challenged. The core PCE rose by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year; the overall PCE also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year, fully in line with market expectations but lacking timeliness.
● Recently released data on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index reveals a unique economic observation window. This data, which should have been released earlier, was delayed due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, and only now reveals the economic situation for November 2024.
● The inflation indicator most favored by the Federal Reserve has emerged in this special context, its authority has been directly challenged. The core PCE rose by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year; the overall PCE also rose by 0.2% month-on-month and by 2.8% year-on-year, fully in line with market expectations but lacking timeliness.
Gold hits a new high of $4965, with safe-haven demand and fundamentals resonating to support the bull market
Since the beginning of 2026, the international gold market has experienced explosive行情. As of the time of writing, the spot gold price has surpassed the integer mark of $4965/ounce, setting a new historical peak, with an increase of over 15% compared to the beginning of the year.
This surge in gold prices is not an isolated event; the crisis of trust in dollar assets triggered by the escalation of geopolitical games between the US and Europe, the uncertainty in the market caused by the fluctuating policies of Trump, combined with the continuous support from global central banks and ETF increases, has collectively built a solid foundation for the gold bull market. Against the backdrop of weakening momentum in global economic recovery and the undercurrents of geopolitical conflict, the market has magnified gold's safe-haven properties and value storage function.
This surge in gold prices is not an isolated event; the crisis of trust in dollar assets triggered by the escalation of geopolitical games between the US and Europe, the uncertainty in the market caused by the fluctuating policies of Trump, combined with the continuous support from global central banks and ETF increases, has collectively built a solid foundation for the gold bull market. Against the backdrop of weakening momentum in global economic recovery and the undercurrents of geopolitical conflict, the market has magnified gold's safe-haven properties and value storage function.
CZ's Speech at Davos: Three Main Lines of Cryptocurrency and New Regulatory Game
Under the spotlight of the Davos Forum, this cryptocurrency giant pointed out that physical banks will drastically reduce in the next decade, while national assets on the blockchain, crypto payments, and AI autonomous trading will become new pillars of the industry.
On January 22, 2026, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) delivered an important speech at the Davos World Economic Forum's panel discussion on 'The New Era of Finance.' He pointed out that cryptocurrency trading platforms and stablecoins have become mature industries for large-scale applications, and the three major directions for the industry's future are: tokenization of assets at the national level, cryptocurrencies as 'invisible' payment channels, and the use of cryptocurrencies as native currency for AI intelligent agents' autonomous trading.
On January 22, 2026, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) delivered an important speech at the Davos World Economic Forum's panel discussion on 'The New Era of Finance.' He pointed out that cryptocurrency trading platforms and stablecoins have become mature industries for large-scale applications, and the three major directions for the industry's future are: tokenization of assets at the national level, cryptocurrencies as 'invisible' payment channels, and the use of cryptocurrencies as native currency for AI intelligent agents' autonomous trading.
Will gold break through $5,400? What about Bitcoin?
The gold market is witnessing a contest between old and new capital, with central banks and private whales joining forces to drive up gold prices, while Bitcoin is quietly changing the future landscape of safe-haven assets under the name of 'digital gold'.
When Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, this prediction was not just a fluctuation of numbers, but revealed the deep anxiety of global capital seeking a safe haven.
1. Gold prices soar: from historical highs to higher expectations
● The gold market at the beginning of 2025 has already made history, with spot gold prices firmly standing above $4,900 per ounce. This number alone is enough to shock traditional gold investors, but Goldman Sachs' analysts see further.
When Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target to $5,400 per ounce, this prediction was not just a fluctuation of numbers, but revealed the deep anxiety of global capital seeking a safe haven.
1. Gold prices soar: from historical highs to higher expectations
● The gold market at the beginning of 2025 has already made history, with spot gold prices firmly standing above $4,900 per ounce. This number alone is enough to shock traditional gold investors, but Goldman Sachs' analysts see further.
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ADBE completely monopolizes the high-end market. Every industry is using it, and it's almost impossible to migrate away. In the next 5 years, there is currently no sign of any significant change. To completely take down ADBE would require unprecedented amounts of money.
AiCoin Daily Report (January 23)
1. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to Trump's remarks on cryptocurrency.
Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated at today's regular press conference in response to foreign media inquiries that China has always actively participated in multilateral and bilateral monetary and financial cooperation as well as the formulation of international financial rules. In response to U.S. President Trump's remarks at Davos about taking measures to prevent China from entering the cryptocurrency field, Guo Jiakun suggested consulting the relevant Chinese authorities. - Original text
2. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States rose to 200,000.
Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States increased to 200,000, estimated to be 209,000, with a previous value of 198,000. AI interpretation: The rise in initial unemployment claims indicates certain pressure on the labor market, although the data remains at historically low levels. This change may raise concerns in the market about an economic slowdown, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The increase in unemployment claims may also lead to a more cautious market outlook regarding future employment conditions, further impacting consumer confidence and spending. - Original text
Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated at today's regular press conference in response to foreign media inquiries that China has always actively participated in multilateral and bilateral monetary and financial cooperation as well as the formulation of international financial rules. In response to U.S. President Trump's remarks at Davos about taking measures to prevent China from entering the cryptocurrency field, Guo Jiakun suggested consulting the relevant Chinese authorities. - Original text
2. Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States rose to 200,000.
Last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States increased to 200,000, estimated to be 209,000, with a previous value of 198,000. AI interpretation: The rise in initial unemployment claims indicates certain pressure on the labor market, although the data remains at historically low levels. This change may raise concerns in the market about an economic slowdown, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. The increase in unemployment claims may also lead to a more cautious market outlook regarding future employment conditions, further impacting consumer confidence and spending. - Original text
Gold vs Bitcoin: Market Positioning in the Trump 2.0 Era
The S&P 500 index and the Bitcoin price chart are displayed side by side, with the two curves showing remarkable synchronization recently, while gold prices are climbing independently on another track, suggesting that the myth of digital gold is being rewritten in the digital age.
At the beginning of 2024, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF marked the start of a new era for the mainstreaming of digital assets; in March of the following year, Trump signed an executive order declaring the establishment of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Institutional investors and governments around the world are beginning to view Bitcoin as a store of value on par with gold. However, market data reveals another story: the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ index once reached 0.8, while its correlation with gold was close to zero.
At the beginning of 2024, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF marked the start of a new era for the mainstreaming of digital assets; in March of the following year, Trump signed an executive order declaring the establishment of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Institutional investors and governments around the world are beginning to view Bitcoin as a store of value on par with gold. However, market data reveals another story: the correlation between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ index once reached 0.8, while its correlation with gold was close to zero.
Who controls America's money printing machine? — The battle to defend the Federal Reserve
The courtroom of the United States Supreme Court, where conservative Justice Kavanaugh's warning echoes — if supporting the president's arbitrary dismissal of Federal Reserve board members, it will 'weaken or even shatter' the independence of the Federal Reserve.
The dollar index has fallen more than 2% since last August, while spot gold has risen over 17% during the same period, which is the most direct response of the market to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
On January 21, 2026, local time, the United States Supreme Court held oral arguments in the case of 'Trump v. Cook.' This legal showdown not only determines the fate of board member Lisa Cook but could also reshape the foundation of the global financial system.
The dollar index has fallen more than 2% since last August, while spot gold has risen over 17% during the same period, which is the most direct response of the market to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
On January 21, 2026, local time, the United States Supreme Court held oral arguments in the case of 'Trump v. Cook.' This legal showdown not only determines the fate of board member Lisa Cook but could also reshape the foundation of the global financial system.
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