News

Data through July 8, 2026, showed that trading volume in the 15 minutes before the U.S. session open was at the 50th percentile, slightly above the average level over the past 30 days, and remained within a normal range, indicating steady order absorption during the opening phase.
According to Jin10, momentum for follow-through moves was at the 97th percentile, far above the average over the past 30 days, and was in an extremely high range, suggesting very strong continuation strength in the market.

Crypto and U.S. stock futures fell as renewed Iran-related tensions triggered a risk-off move. The CoinDesk 20 Index slid 2.9% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk, while bitcoin and ether (ETH) dropped more than 2% and altcoins such as JUP, ETHFI and PUMP fell over 5%. U.S. President Donald Trump told NATO leaders the ceasefire was “over,” as U.S. Central Command said it hit more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats and Iran retaliated with attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures fell as much as 1.5%.

A CryptoQuant analyst said a combination of crowded long positions, weakening spot trading volume, and whale selling has historically signaled a potential local market top followed by a pullback.
According to Foresight News, CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk said that when these three conditions appear at the same time—overcrowded long positioning, dried-up spot volume, and large holders selling—it typically indicates a local peak and an ensuing correction.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.14T, down by 2.12% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $61,744 and $64,244 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $62,067, down by 2.22%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading lower. Market outperformers include AI, SPELL, and SYN, up by 18%, 15%, and 13%, respectively.Trump Called the Ceasefire "Over" — Oil Is Up 5%, Dow Futures Down 700 Points, and Bitcoin Is Sitting on the Least Available Supply in Nine YearsThe US-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. Strikes hit 80+ targets overnight, oil surged 5%, and the disinflationary thesis that drove Bitcoin's recovery from $58K is directly under threat — again. Every prior ceasefire breakdown sent Bitcoin's relief rally into full reversal within days.But beneath the chaos, Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange supply just hit nine and eleven-year lows — the least available selling inventory in nearly a decade is waiting for any demand recovery. Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the immediate risk. July 14 CPI is the bigger question. Russia just recognized crypto as legal property. The structural case keeps building even as the macro keeps testing it.U.S. Strikes Iran, Revokes Oil Waiver in New Threats to CeasefireKey Takeaways:US forces struck 80+ Iranian targets including air defense systems, command networks, coastal radar, anti-ship missile capabilities, and 60+ IRGC small boats; the US Treasury simultaneously revoked the waiver allowing new Iranian oil sales after July 7 — removing the key economic incentive designed to keep Tehran in the dealIran's IRGC claimed strikes on Ali Al-Salem Airbase in Kuwait and the Fifth Fleet naval base in Bahrain; Kuwaiti air defenses responded to hostile missiles and drones; three commercial ships were attacked in Hormuz over the past day — the most since the June 19 agreement went into effectBrent crude climbed 3.4% to ~$77 early Wednesday — up from the ~$70 level that had validated Citigroup's $60 year-end target; Brent had touched $126+ in late April before declining on ceasefire optimism; the revocation of the oil waiver removes the supply normalization that drove that declineTrump approved the strikes from Turkey during the NATO summit; both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire; Iran's parliament speaker: "the era of bullying and extortion is over and Iran does not fold"Summary:This is the third ceasefire collapse in the US-Iran conflict — and by the most consequential metrics it is the worst: the oil waiver revocation removes the economic mechanism that was supposed to keep Iran at the negotiating table, strikes hit 80+ sites (the most since the conflict began), and the attack on the Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain is an escalation that goes beyond prior exchanges. The disinflationary oil channel — Hormuz reopening → oil toward $60 → inflation decelerating → Fed holds → Bitcoin recovers — has been directly disrupted. Whether it recovers depends on whether diplomacy resurfaces at the NATO summit or takes weeks to restart.Bitcoin Falls to $62,000 as US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses — Oil Surges 5%, Dow Futures Drop 700 Points, Fed Minutes LoomKey Takeaways:Bitcoin fell back to $62,000 from last week's recovery high of $64,400 as the ceasefire collapse hit markets; Dow futures dropped 705 points (-1.3%); oil's 5% surge reverses the disinflationary channel that has been Bitcoin's primary macro tailwind for the past weekMarex: "Wednesday's Fed minutes are the pin — with longs this crowded and funding this rich, a hawkish read is exactly the spark that flushes leverage"; the minutes from June's most hawkish FOMC in the cycle will provide the first detailed inside view of why 9 of 18 officials projected rate hikesThe inflation contradiction: bond market two-year breakevens already below 2% (institutional signal) vs NY Fed consumer survey showing 12-month inflation expectations at 3.7% — highest since September 2023; oil's 5% spike complicates the consumer expectations picture furtherTwo additional overhangs: Strategy's $216M Bitcoin sale authorization and consumer inflation expectations rising to 3.7% — neither individually decisive but both adding to the weight on leveraged longs that Marex identifies as the vulnerable crowded position heading into WednesdaySummary:The ceasefire collapse is the third time Bitcoin has had to absorb this specific shock — and the prior two times, it gave back its entire relief rally within days. The difference this time is the structural accumulation that built during the correction: exchange supply at nine-year lows, 79% LTH supply, 259,000 BTC accumulated near the floor. Whether those structural supports are sufficient to prevent a full round-trip to $58,000 is the question Wednesday's FOMC minutes will begin to answer — a hawkish reading flushes the leveraged longs; a neutral reading keeps the structural floor in place while the macro picture re-stabilizes.Bitcoin and Ethereum Exchange Supply Are Approaching All-Time Lows — Santiment Data Shows a Historic Supply Squeeze BuildingKey Takeaways:Bitcoin's exchange supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2017 — a nine-year low; Ethereum's has dropped to its lowest since 2015 — an eleven-year low; both readings arrive simultaneously per Santiment monitoring dataThe supply squeeze mechanism: when exchange supply is at historic lows, any meaningful demand recovery must be met by convincing conviction holders who deliberately removed coins from exchanges to part with them — a population that has demonstrated high conviction in holding at a loss; this amplifies the price impact of any demand returnContext that makes the reading extreme: every major bull market top in the past nine years was accompanied by more exchange supply than exists today; every major bear market bottom was accompanied by more exchange supply than exists today — current exchange supply is lower than at any confirmed bottom in Bitcoin's recent historyConsistent with the full bottom-signal cluster: Glassnode ATS at maximum, 79% LTH supply, 259,000 BTC accumulated near the floor, realized P&L at 43-month low — exchange supply at nine-year lows is the direct measurement of what all those metrics are pointing to from different anglesSummary:Bitcoin exchange supply at a nine-year low and Ethereum at an eleven-year low during a bear market is the single most historically extreme structural signal of the current correction. The coins that could be sold easily have already been sold or withdrawn to conviction holders — the immediately available selling inventory is smaller than at any point since before most institutional crypto participants existed. Supply squeezes do not trigger recoveries by themselves, but when the macro catalyst arrives, they are the mechanism that turns a modest demand increase into an explosive price recovery. The Iran escalation is the near-term test of whether that mechanism gets activated in the next week or waits for July 14.Crypto Market Falls Broadly Over 24 Hours — DeFi Leads With 8.77% Drop as SocialFi and DePIN Also CraterKey Takeaways:DeFi led sector losses at -8.77% (LAB -67.70%, HYPE -4.30%); SocialFi fell 9.26%; DePIN -6.50%; AI tokens -5.23% — the three worst-performing sectors all tied to AI infrastructure and application narratives, consistent with the AI trade multiple compression playing out in semiconductor stocks simultaneouslyOutliers with token-specific catalysts: EdgeX +29.12%, MemeCore +11.30%, Lido DAO +11.01%, Zcash +5.17%, Telcoin +4.11% — the same pattern throughout the June-July correction where broad sector weakness coexists with isolated fundamental gainsLayer 1 -2.22%, Layer 2 -3.02%, CeFi -1.66%, Meme -2.73% — comparatively modest declines suggesting speculative infrastructure tokens are absorbing disproportionate selling relative to more established network tokensThe macro context: JGB yields at a 30-year high, fresh Hormuz missile strike, KOSPI -6.7% — the broad sector declines are the crypto expression of the same global risk-off move hitting equities and bond markets simultaneouslySummary:DeFi and SocialFi falling 8-9% while Layer 1 falls only 2% is the sector-level expression of a market that is compressing the most speculative and narrative-dependent crypto assets hardest — the same dynamic that has driven the AI trade multiple compression in equities. The isolated token-specific standouts (EdgeX, Lido, Zcash) confirm that fundamental catalysts still cut through the macro noise — but the 8-9% sector declines confirm the macro noise is very loud right now. The Iran ceasefire collapse arriving into this environment on the same day as FOMC minutes is the specific combination Marex warned would be the leverage flush catalyst.Russia Approves Final Draft Crypto Bill to Recognize Cryptocurrency as Legal PropertyKey Takeaways:Russia's State Duma Financial Market Committee approved the final draft of a crypto bill recognizing cryptocurrency as legal property — covering BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC as the approved eligible assets for individual investorsThe bill allows foreign-trade companies to use cryptocurrency for cross-border payments — a significant expansion of crypto's legal utility in one of the world's largest crypto-mining and trading economiesIndividual investment is capped at 300,000 rubles annually; unlicensed crypto services face penalties; the framework mirrors the emerging global consensus on retail access caps alongside institutional-grade legal property recognitionSummary:Russia formally recognizing BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC as legal property — rather than treating them as speculative instruments operating in a gray area — is one of the most significant crypto regulatory developments of the year in a jurisdiction that is both a major mining economy and a sanctions-driven adopter of crypto for cross-border payments. The foreign trade payment provision is the most practically impactful element: it formally enables Russian companies to use crypto for international transactions in a country where US dollar access has been significantly restricted, creating genuine structural demand for the specific assets the bill names. Market movers:NVDAB: $193.41 (-0.32%)MSFTB: $382.92 (-2.66%)GOOGLB: $361.54 (-1.34%)SPCXB: $149.31 (-5.07%)METAB: $604.31 (-0.14%)TSLAB: $397.26 (-4.21%)MUB: $881.31 (-5.09%)AMDB: $504.39 (-4.66%)SPYB: $745.66 (-0.75%)LITEB: $671.75 (-5.98%)

Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies traded lower after the U.S. and Iran exchanged aerial strikes and President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is over. BTC slipped to $62,657 in Asian hours, down nearly 1% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk, while ETH, XRP and SOL fell 1% to 2.3%. WTI crude rose more than 2% to $72.27 and the Dollar Index held above 101.00. The U.S. cited strikes after attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran said it targeted “85 US military installations” in retaliation.

Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies traded lower as renewed U.S.-Iran airstrikes pushed oil prices higher. The risk-off move came as energy markets reacted to the escalation, according to CoinDesk, weighing on broader sentiment across digital assets.

The cryptocurrency market declined across the board over the past 24 hours, with most sectors posting losses between 2% and 9%. The DeFi sector led declines at 8.77%, followed by SocialFi at 9.26%, DePIN at 6.50%, and AI tokens at 5.23% — three of the four worst-performing sector indices all tied to the infrastructure and application layers that had been the most hyped narratives of the current cycle.
Sector Breakdown
DeFi's 8.77% decline was the headline sector loss, with LAB falling 67.70% — the sharpest individual decline in the data — while HYPE dropped 4.30%. The countermovers were EdgeX gaining 29.12% and Lido DAO rising 11.01% — both on token-specific catalysts rather than sector sentiment.
The CeFi sector fell 1.66% with Cronos down 3.91% — a comparatively modest decline reflecting the relative stability of centralized exchange tokens versus more speculative DeFi protocols. Layer 1 declined 2.22%, with Zcash rising 5.17% as the privacy coin narrative continues its recent outperformance against the broader bear market. The PayFi sector dropped 2.30%, though Telcoin gained 4.11% — another token-specific catalyst bucking sector weakness. The Meme sector fell 2.73% while MemeCore added 11.30%. Layer 2 declined 3.02% with Mantle down 5.31%.
The Broader Context
Monday's broad sector decline fits within the macro pressure that has been building this week — the JGB yield surge to a 30-year high at 2.85% pushing US Treasury yields to test 4.5%, a fresh Hormuz missile strike reviving oil risk, and the KOSPI crashing 6.7% as Samsung fell 8.3%. The SocialFi, DePIN, and AI sector indices falling 9.26%, 6.50%, and 5.23% respectively reflect the same AI trade unwinding that has driven semiconductor stocks lower — assets most exposed to the AI infrastructure narrative are seeing the sharpest corrections as investors reassess whether the spending justifies the valuations.
The token-specific standouts — EdgeX at +29.12%, MemeCore at +11.30%, Lido DAO at +11.01%, Telcoin at +4.11%, Zcash at +5.17% — follow the pattern that has characterized the entire June-July correction: broad sector weakness with isolated fundamental catalysts producing outlier gains in individual tokens independent of macro direction.

CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season Index fell one point from yesterday to 48.
According to NS3.AI, the index measures whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin by comparing the top 100 cryptocurrencies against Bitcoin over the preceding 90 days.

A Greeks.live macro researcher said the latest rebound appears weak, citing a sudden rise in large call-option trades alongside declining implied volatility.
According to ChainCatcher, the researcher, Adam, wrote on X that large traders have started selling call options, with significant selling seen in the current month’s call contracts.
He added that margin released from June’s quarterly expiry is being rapidly converted into short option positions during the rebound.
Adam said traders could consider following by selling some 0.3-delta call options, giving the example of a $66,000 call option expiring next week.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.18T, up by 2.02% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $61,307 and $64,700 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $63,30, up by 2.52%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading mixed. Market outperformers include BLUR, VANRY, and RIF, up by 38%, 28%, and 27%, respectively.Japan's Bond Yields Hit a 30-Year High, Hormuz Was Struck Again, and Bitcoin Is Still Holding $63K — July 14 Will Decide EverythingThree things threatened Bitcoin's recovery in a single session: Japanese bond yields surged to a 30-year high pulling global rates higher, a fresh missile strike on an LNG carrier near Hormuz sent oil back up, and Samsung's 19-fold profit surge somehow crashed the KOSPI 4.91%. Bitcoin absorbed all of it and held $63K.SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 — making every QQQ holder an indirect Bitcoin holder — but weighed on tech rather than lifting it. Weekly jobless claims softened again, adding to the labor deceleration case. July 14 CPI is now the single data point that either confirms the recovery or resets it.Bitcoin Shrugs Off Strategy's $216 Million Sale but Fails $64,400 as a Fresh Hormuz Missile Strike Puts Oil Risk Back on the TableKey Takeaways:Bitcoin touched $64,400 — its highest since before the June 17 FOMC hawkish pivot — before fading to $63,170; still up ~6% on the week and holding well above last week's $58,000 low; Strategy's largest BTC sale since abandoning its never-sell stance was absorbed without breaking the bounceA laden LNG carrier was struck by a projectile near the Omani coast as it left the Strait of Hormuz — Brent rose 1.4% to $73.03; the incident directly echoes the pattern that broke prior ceasefires and threatens the disinflationary oil channel that Citigroup's $60 Brent target and Robin Brooks' July 14 CPI thesis both depend onARP Digital's Yusuf Fakhro: CME futures OI at a 32-month low confirms "the institutional bid has all but vanished"; the six-month options skew has hit its fourth-highest reading on record — the only three higher readings occurred in June and November 2022, both near confirmed cycle lowsCrypto-equity decoupling developing: KOSPI's 6.7% crash produced a Bitcoin fade from $64,400 to $63,170 rather than a breakdown toward $60,000 — for most of 2026, similar KOSPI crashes preceded Bitcoin tests of major support levelsTwo variables determine whether the bounce becomes a base: ETF inflows building from Thursday's $223M single-day reversal into a sustained multi-session trend; and whether the Hormuz incident fades as one-off or escalates into renewed conflictSummary:Bitcoin failing to hold $64,400 on its first probe is not a breakdown — it is a resistance test that has not yet been cleared. The more significant signal is that a 6.7% KOSPI crash and a fresh Hormuz missile strike produced a $1,200 fade rather than a $5,000 selloff. That behavioral resilience — holding $63K through simultaneous geopolitical and equity market shocks — is the most constructive single data point of the recovery. Whether the $64,400 resistance yields on the next attempt will depend on whether July 14 CPI validates the deflationary thesis or challenges it.SpaceX Joins Nasdaq-100 Tuesday as SPCX Drops Roughly 29%Key Takeaways:SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 before Tuesday's US open — less than a month after its June 12 IPO at $135; SPCX closed Monday at $160.42, 29% below its $225.64 all-time high following the $20B inaugural bond sale that triggered the AI capex reassessment; JPMorgan estimates ~1.3% initial index weight forcing multi-billion dollar price-insensitive buyingPanmure Liberum's Joachim Klement: SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 inclusion may weigh on tech stocks as index funds sell existing holdings to make room for SPCX — a mechanical rotation effect that contributed to Nasdaq 100 futures falling 0.8% at Tuesday's openTwo overhangs remain: high post-IPO volatility (the stock has already traded $135 to $225 to $160 within weeks) and upcoming lockup expiry that will allow pre-IPO holders and employees to begin sellingCrypto connection: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC (~$1.2B); every QQQ holder gains indirect Bitcoin exposure as of Tuesday; the SPCX perpetual futures on Hyperliquid ($812M notional OI) will be influenced by index inclusion mechanics and any volatility around the openSummary:SpaceX entering the Nasdaq-100 at $160 rather than $225 changes the narrative from "historic first-day pop" to "index inclusion into a 29% correction" — the mechanical buying is real, but it arrives into a stock that has already disappointed early buyers and whose AI capex thesis is being actively questioned. The rotation effect Klement flagged — index funds trimming existing tech names to fund SPCX — is the specific reason Tuesday's open saw Nasdaq futures fall rather than rise on what should have been a positive catalyst. For Bitcoin, the indirect BTC exposure embedded in QQQ from today is the durable structural positive regardless of SPCX's near-term trading.Kospi Plunges 4.91% as Samsung Leads Selloff in TechKey Takeaways:KOSPI fell 4.91% to 7,656.31 — its third severe single-session crash in two weeks; the Korea Exchange activated a circuit breaker for 20 minutes after the index fell more than 8% intraday; Samsung fell 6.92% to 296,000 won despite quarterly profit surging 19-fold and operating profit beating projections by ~8%SK Hynix fell 6.06% ahead of its planned $29B US listing later this week; MSCI Asia Pacific -1.6%, MSCI Emerging Markets -1.9%; Panmure Liberum's Klement: "the market reaction to Samsung shows investors have adopted a beat-and-raise mindset" — near-term earnings no longer sufficient when AI forward expectations are the primary valuation driverInstitutions and foreigners sold a net 309.1B won and 2.92T won respectively; domestic retail bought a net 3.13T won — the same foreign-sell/domestic-buy pattern that has characterized every major KOSPI crash since June, with domestic retail absorbing foreign exitsSummary:Samsung's profit surging 19-fold while the stock falls 7% is the clearest possible illustration of how AI-trade positioning has detached from current earnings reality. Investors aren't selling because Samsung performed badly — they're selling because a 19-fold profit surge wasn't enough to justify the forward AI demand multiple baked into the valuation. That dynamic, combined with SpaceX's index inclusion weighing on tech rather than lifting it, suggests the AI trade correction has moved from "reassessment" to "active multiple compression" — a regime shift that historically takes months to fully clear.U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 21,000 for Week Ending June 20 — Further Labor Market Softening After June's 57,000 Payrolls MissKey Takeaways:U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20 came in at 21,000 — down from 30,750 in the prior week; one week after June NFP shocked at 57,000 vs 110,000 forecast, continued moderation in weekly claims adds to the accumulating evidence of gradual labor market decelerationThe directional read matters most: gradual deceleration without acute weakness gives Warsh's Fed room to hold rather than hike without triggering recession fear — the specific scenario that keeps Bitcoin's recovery macro-supported rather than switching from "rate relief" to "growth concern"Claims data arrives as JGB yields at a 30-year high are pulling US Treasury yields back toward 4.5% — soft domestic labor data is the specific counterweight most likely to prevent US yields from rising further alongside the Japan-led global bond repricingSummary:A gradual labor market deceleration — 57,000 NFP followed by continued soft weekly claims — is the most favorable macroeconomic scenario for Bitcoin's recovery, because it gives the Fed a data-driven reason to hold without the recession fear that would produce a different, less Bitcoin-friendly form of risk-off selling. The JGB yield surge is the external pressure testing whether this domestic softening is enough to keep US yields from rising. If July 14's CPI confirms the deflationary impulse that bond markets are already pricing, the combination of soft labor data and cooling inflation removes the last remaining justification for the hawkish dot plot's rate hike projections.Japanese Bond Yields Hit 30-Year High at 2.85% Key Takeaways:Japan's 10-year JGB yield surged to 2.85% — a 30-year high — adding 18bps since the start of the month and pulling the US 10-year to 4.5% (testing its highest level in nearly a month), German bunds toward 3%, and UK gilts to ~4.8%; the global fixed income repricing is broad-based and Japan-ledThe mechanism: rising JGB yields make yen-carry trades less attractive, reducing Japanese capital flows into other bond markets and allowing global yields to drift toward their natural equilibrium — the same dynamic that triggered Bitcoin's $65K to $50K crash in a single week in July 2024Goldman Sachs expects the yen to continue weakening and maintains a preference for yen-funded carry trades — the spread between yen borrowing costs and higher-yielding asset returns remains wide enough that the disorderly carry unwind scenario is not yet imminent; but each JGB basis point narrows that spreadThe two-catalyst scenario that contains the damage: soft June CPI on July 14 reducing US Treasury yields domestically even as JGB yields rise structurally; and Hormuz tensions remaining contained so oil doesn't reverse the disinflationary channel Citigroup's $60 Brent target depends onSummary:JGB yields at a 30-year high represent the external yield shock risk that sits beneath every Bitcoin recovery scenario that depends on US rate-relief. The July 2024 carry trade unwind — when a BOJ rate hike sent Bitcoin from $65K to $50K in a week — is the historical template for how Japan's monetary policy normalization can produce rapid and severe crypto selling pressure without any crypto-specific catalyst. Goldman's maintained carry trade preference is the buffer preventing an immediate repeat. But the direction is clear: Japan is normalizing, the carry trade spread is narrowing, and July 14 CPI is the domestic data point most capable of offsetting the external yield pressure before it reaches the threshold that triggers the unwind.Market movers:NVDAB: $194.04 (-0.83%)MSFTB: $393.05 (+0.32%)SPCXB: $157.28 (-3.93%)METAB: $604.82 (+1.92%)TSLAB: $414.76 (+3.70%)MUB: $928.56 (-7.86%)AMDB: $530.15 (-0.33%)INTCB: $117.02 (-5.97%)LITEB: $714.44 (-2.79%)QQQB: $716.93 (-0.59%)

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, warned on July 7 that unliquidated long positions now dominate Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), raising the risk of a liquidation cascade if prices slip in the next few hours. According to BeInCrypto, Wedson said the recent advance has been weak and driven more by leverage than spot demand, leaving markets vulnerable to a domino effect across derivatives and spot.
Wedson outlined downside risks including Bitcoin correcting to $60,000-$62,000, XRP testing $1.00-$1.10, and SOL falling toward $63-$74 if it breaks below $80, while noting some analysts still see potential rebounds if leverage clears.

The combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC fell by $11 billion over the past two months, declining from $268 billion to $257 billion.
According to NS3.AI, USDT and USDC maintained a relatively stable share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization despite the drop in their combined value.
The report said investor behavior suggests crypto is being sold into stablecoins while capital is also moving out of the on-chain ecosystem, rather than being redeployed into higher-risk assets.

The market capitalization of eight MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins rose 128% to $673.9 million before the MiCA transition period ended, according to Decta. According to NS3.AI, trading volume for these tokens increased 43.1% to $67.3 million over the same period.
Despite the growth in euro-denominated stablecoins, CoinGecko data indicates that dollar-pegged stablecoins continue to dominate the sector, with about $300 billion in total market capitalization.

CoinMarketCap's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 28, moving market sentiment from Extreme Fear into Fear. According to NS3.AI, the index uses a zero-to-100 scale to gauge overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Major cryptocurrency exchanges recorded about $150 million in futures liquidations in the past hour. According to NS3.AI, total futures liquidations reached $557 million over the past 24 hours.

A Greeks.live macro researcher said options positioning shows low open interest across all maturities through the end of this month, totaling about 15%, indicating reduced market activity.
According to Odaily, the researcher, Adam, wrote on X that gamma exposure (GEX) is concentrated in $60,000 put options and $63,000 call options, which he described as corresponding to the lower and upper bounds of two recent consolidation ranges.
Adam added that the market may closely track external markets, and said recent U.S. stock performance and commodity prices are worth closer attention.

Ether led crypto majors into Monday with a 12.4% weekly gain to approximately $1,777 as Bitcoin slipped back below $62,000 — giving back its earlier hold above $63,000 and falling back under the 200-week SMA at $62,660 that every analytical framework has identified as the bull-bear dividing line. The broader weekly gains remain intact across majors. But Bitcoin's inability to sustain above the 200-week SMA through Monday's session is the most important technical development of the week's opening day — and the specific signal that keeps the recovery in the unconfirmed category.
The Weekly Scorecard — Broad Gains, Bitcoin Lags
The breadth of the weekly recovery is genuine and distinguishes this move from June's isolated relief bounces. HYPE led all majors with a 14.6% weekly gain. Ether followed at 12.4%. Solana gained 11.2% to hold near $80.77. XRP added 9.4% to $1.14. BNB and Dogecoin each gained approximately 5.5%. Bitcoin's 5.5% weekly gain was the most modest among majors — and Monday's slip below $62,000 has trimmed even that figure in real time.
The Altcoin Season indicator reaching a three-month high confirms the weekly breadth is genuine rather than thin-market driven. Capital is rotating across the crypto complex with conviction. The historical pattern — altcoins sell off first and recover first — is playing out with Ether, HYPE, and Solana all outperforming Bitcoin meaningfully on a weekly basis.
Bitcoin Below $62,000 — The 200-Week SMA Remains Unreclaimed
Bitcoin's slip back below $62,000 returns the asset to the same no-man's-land it has occupied throughout June — below the 200-week SMA at $62,660, above the $58,000-$60,000 floor zone, and without the sustained close above the moving average that would confirm a structural trend reversal. Each session that fails to close above $62,660 is a missed confirmation opportunity. Bitcoin has now touched the 200-week SMA from below multiple times since the June 5 breakdown without delivering a decisive reclaim — a pattern that reflects the weight of the macro headwinds rather than any structural deterioration in the accumulation picture.
The dollar strengthening against all major peers on Monday is the most direct explanation for Bitcoin's slip below $62,000. A stronger dollar makes dollar-priced assets like Bitcoin costlier for foreign buyers and historically tracks inversely with Bitcoin's price direction. The crowded $34.5 billion net long dollar positioning remains the most asymmetric macro trade globally — and the specific unwind catalyst the market is waiting for from July 14's CPI print.
The Key Structural Shift — Crypto Holding While AI Trade Wobbles
Despite Bitcoin's slip below $62,000, Monday's most significant development is what did not happen. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.4% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix declined. An MSCI gauge of Asian chipmakers slipped. Semiconductor shares lost their rebound momentum, reviving doubts about the durability of the AI-driven rally. In June, this combination would have pulled Bitcoin below $60,000. Monday it pulled Bitcoin to $61,900 — a giveback, not a breakdown.
For most of the past quarter, cracks in the AI trade pulled the token market lower alongside equities. The fact that crypto is absorbing the AI wobble without revisiting last week's lows suggests the dominant force on Bitcoin has shifted from tech equity correlation toward macro rate expectations — specifically the inflation and Fed policy framework that makes July 14's CPI print the week's defining catalyst.
Brent at $71.70 and the Inflation Pathway
Brent crude fell 0.6% to approximately $71.70 per barrel on Monday — continuing the deflationary oil trajectory that Citigroup projected would eventually ease Fed pressure toward Brent at $60 by year-end. The two-year inflation breakeven having already dropped below 2% for the first time since 2024 provides the bond market confirmation that the oil-driven disinflation is being priced into forward expectations. July 14's June CPI print is the moment Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution identified as when "the deflationary impulse from falling oil prices should remind everyone the Fed isn't going to hike."
Until that data arrives, Bitcoin remains range-bound — below $62,660 without a clear catalyst to push decisively above it, and above $58,000-$60,000 supported by the densest cluster of historical bottom signals the current cycle has produced.

Bitcoin is trading below $62k on Monday — pulling back from an earlier $62,800 print as crypto diverges from traditional markets where Nasdaq 100 futures are up 1% and S&P 500 futures have gained 0.5% following the long July 4 weekend. The retreat from the week's opening high represents a 1% giveback from the Sunday futures open spike, leaving Bitcoin just below the 200-week SMA at $62,660 — the bull-bear dividing line the market needs to close above convincingly to confirm last week's recovery as a structural reversal. Ether is trading at $1,760 after bottoming around $1,550 last week. The Altcoin Season indicator has reached its highest reading in three months.From $58,000 to $61,980 — The Recovery That Stopped Short of ConfirmationThe move from last week's $58,000 low to Monday's $61,980 represents approximately 6.8% recovery — enough to ease the acute panic that had surrounded Bitcoin's dip to its lowest level since September 2024, but not yet enough to deliver the decisive close above the 200-week SMA that every analytical framework has identified as the necessary condition for confirmed trend reversal.The $62,660 200-week SMA remains the immediate target. Bitcoin has been trading around this level since Sunday's futures open spike took it briefly to $62,800 before the giveback. Each session that closes below $62,660 is a missed confirmation opportunity. Each session that closes above it extends the constructive technical case. Monday's $61,980 print means the market enters the week's first full US session still below the dividing line — but only by approximately $680, a distance that a single positive macro catalyst could close.Crypto Diverging From Equities — and What That MeansMonday's most notable dynamic is the divergence between crypto and traditional markets. Nasdaq 100 futures up 1% and S&P 500 futures up 0.5% following the holiday weekend should, under the correlation regime that defined most of June, be pulling Bitcoin higher rather than allowing it to slip. The fact that crypto is pulling back while equities rally modestly suggests two possible readings: either the crypto-equity correlation has temporarily decoupled as crypto-specific dynamics — options expiry positioning, the Altcoin Season rotation, and derivatives repositioning — dominate Monday's session, or the equities rally is not yet strong enough to provide the external lift Bitcoin needs to sustain above $62,660.Altcoin Season at a Three-Month High — the Rotation Signal Getting ClearerThe Altcoin Season indicator reaching its highest reading in three months is the most structurally significant development of the week's opening session. Three weeks ago the indicator sat at 46/100 — firmly neutral with Bitcoin driving all price action. The move to a three-month high suggests genuine capital rotation is developing across the altcoin complex — the pattern Bitfinex analysts identified as the historical sequence where altcoins sell off first and recover first relative to Bitcoin.The altcoin market is split rather than uniformly bullish, however. LIT has surged more than 50% over the past week, driven by a bullish tokenomics overhaul that has pushed open interest to one-month highs and provided genuine fundamental demand independent of the macro environment. MORPHO and ADA are both nursing losses of approximately 4% in the past 24 hours — a reminder that the three-month high Altcoin Season reading reflects an improving aggregate trend, not uniform gains.Derivatives: Volatility Falling, LTC Mixed, Puts Still at a PremiumBitcoin's and Ether's 30-day implied volatility indexes — BVIV and EVIV — remain under pressure after double-digit weekly declines, reflecting continued options supply and expectations of calmer market conditions. Falling implied volatility during a price recovery is constructive — it signals buying rather than short-covering panic and the options market is not pricing renewed acute downside.Litecoin presents the week's most complex derivatives picture. Open interest jumped to 7.14 million tokens — highest since May 12 — with conflicting signals: positive funding rates suggest bullish sentiment while negative 24-hour CVD indicates sellers are more aggressively hitting market orders. The combination typically resolves with a sharp directional move once the ambiguity clears. On Deribit, the $60,000 put and $70,000 call rank among the most actively traded BTC strikes — bracketing the current price between the floor to defend and the first resistance cluster above, with the 200-week SMA at $62,660 sitting precisely in the middle of that range.July 14 CPI Remains the Week's Defining CatalystBitcoin at $61,980 — $680 below the 200-week SMA — enters the week's US session with the same macro framework intact from last week. The two-year inflation breakeven below 2% for the first time since 2024, WTI oil at pre-war levels, and Citigroup's $60 year-end Brent target all support the deflationary impulse thesis Robin Brooks identified as the mechanism that makes July 14 CPI the session that "reminds everyone the Fed isn't going to hike." A soft June CPI print on July 14 would provide the macro permission that Bitcoin's technical setup, bottom-signal cluster, and rising Altcoin Season indicator have been waiting for.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.14T, down by 1.67% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $61,589 and $63,999 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $61,656, down by 1.66%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading mixed. Market outperformers include BEL, VANRY, and TRB, up by 29%, 29%, and 12%, respectively.Inflation Expectations Break Below 2% for the First Time Since 2024 — July 14 CPI Will Confirm Whether the Macro Shift Is RealBitcoin posted its best weekly gain since March — not on crypto news, but on collapsing inflation expectations and oil returning to pre-war levels. The two-year breakeven falling below 2% is bond markets disagreeing with the Fed's hawkish June dot plot in real time. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 Monday with an estimated $35B in forced passive inflows. Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio has reached the same level that preceded every major cycle bottom since 2015. July 14 CPI is the next test.Bitcoin's Best Week Since March Is Being Driven by Inflation Expectations Collapsing — July 14 CPI Is the Next Binary CatalystKey Takeaways:The two-year inflation breakeven fell below 2% for the first time since 2024 — before the US-Iran conflict began; WTI oil has returned to pre-war levels; bond markets are now pricing inflation below the Fed's own target within two years, directly undermining the hawkish June dot plotRobin Brooks (Brookings): "That's when the deflationary impulse from falling oil should remind everyone that the Fed isn't going to hike and — if anything — the next move will be a cut"; July 14 is when June CPI either confirms or challenges the deflationary impulse already visible in bond marketsThe macro chain is now operating in real-time: Hormuz reopening → oil at pre-war levels → inflation breakevens falling → rate-hike probability dropping → dollar weakening → Bitcoin recovering; Standard Chartered's thesis is being validated in live market dataCounter-risk: YCC Macro warns services inflation remains sticky; a June CPI where headline moderates on energy but core services stays elevated gives the Fed no cover to soften language — the asymmetry of crowded bullish positioning means a disappointment could hit harder than a soft print would rallyOPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise output by 188,000 bpd from August; Gulf oil exports in June rose 3M barrels from May exceeding 10M bpd — though still 40% below pre-war levels; Russia's western port shipments hit a record high in JuneSummary:The two-year inflation breakeven falling below 2% while the Fed's dot plot projects rate hikes is the most striking market contradiction of the current cycle — bond markets are disagreeing with the FOMC's June consensus in real time. If June CPI on July 14 confirms what breakevens are already pricing, the $34.5B net long dollar position and $700B in SOFR shorts become the most crowded unwind trade of the year. That unwind is Bitcoin's most direct near-term macro catalyst — more powerful than any on-chain signal, because it hits institutional positioning across every channel simultaneously.Crypto Bounces Back From the Brink but Fades Monday — Altcoin Season at a Three-Month High as Bitcoin Slips to Below $62KKey Takeaways:Bitcoin below $62K — pulling back from a $62,800 Sunday spike, sitting $680 below the 200-week SMA at $62,660 (the bull-bear dividing line); Ether at $1,760 after bottoming near $1,550 last week; Nasdaq 100 futures +1%, S&P 500 +0.5% — crypto diverging from equities on Monday's openAltcoin Season indicator hit its highest reading in three months — genuine capital rotation developing across the altcoin complex, consistent with the historical pattern where altcoins sell off first and recover first relative to BitcoinAltcoin market is split: LIT surged 50%+ on a bullish tokenomics overhaul with OI at one-month highs; MORPHO and ADA each down ~4% in 24 hours — three-month high reading reflects improving aggregate trend, not uniform gainsOptions market: BVIV and EVIV continue declining — falling implied volatility during a price recovery signals buying rather than short-covering panic; Deribit's most active BTC strikes are the $60K put and $70K call, bracketing price with the 200-week SMA precisely in the middleSummary:Bitcoin sitting $680 below the 200-week SMA on a Monday morning when Nasdaq futures are up 1% is the most important single data point of the session — it tells you the recovery is real but not yet confirmed, and that crypto-specific dynamics (options positioning, altcoin rotation, derivatives repositioning) are temporarily outweighing the macro tailwind. Every session that closes below $62,660 is a missed confirmation. Every session above it adds structural credibility to the recovery case. July 14 CPI is likely the event that resolves this limbo in one direction or the other.Bitcoin's Sharpe Ratio Hits −20 — The Lowest Since 2022 and a Level That Has Marked Every Major Bear Market BottomKey Takeaways:Bitcoin's 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio hit −21 at end of June — its lowest since late 2022 — before hovering near −20; this precise level coincided with bear market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each preceding major bull runs; it is now at that level for the fourth time in Bitcoin's historyWhat −20 means: investors holding Bitcoin over the past year were punished rather than rewarded for taking volatility risk; with 10-year Treasuries at 4.45%, Bitcoin's risk-adjusted return was worse than holding zero-volatility government bonds — the rational case for institutional ETF outflowsWhy it's simultaneously a bottoming signal: a −20 Sharpe marks maximum seller exhaustion — the point where every marginal seller who would exit based on risk-adjusted logic already has, leaving a holder base of conviction buyers who are immune to that calculationConsistent with the full bottom-signal cluster: CryptoQuant cycle momentum at −30, realized P&L at −0.35 (43-month low), UTXO ratio in historical bottoming range, 79% LTH supply at record, 16% above realized price — the Sharpe Ratio is the risk-adjusted performance confirmation that all signals point the same waySummary:A −20 Sharpe Ratio is the institutional language equivalent of every on-chain bottom signal — it tells professional allocators that risk-adjusted seller exhaustion has reached historically extreme levels. This is why the signal and the ETF outflows coexist without contradiction: the same rational positioning that drove $4.06B in June outflows also marks the point at which the marginal seller is exhausted. The signal identifies where the market is in the cycle. The confirmation that it holds still requires July 14 CPI to provide the macro permission that converts exhaustion into recovery.Oil Slips as OPEC+ Agrees to Raise August Output Targets by 188,000 bpdKey Takeaways:OPEC+ agreed Sunday to increase output targets by 188,000 bpd from August; Brent fell 0.33% to $71.88, WTI down 0.16% to $68.58 — the OPEC+ increase was "largely in line with expectations" per IG's Tony Sycamore; the UAE has quit OPEC as of May 1Gulf oil exports in June rose 3M+ barrels from May to exceed 10M bpd — though still 40% below pre-war levels; Russia's western port shipments hit a record high in June and expected to hold in July; OPEC June output rose 3.3M bpd month-on-month to 19.43M bpdThe combined effect of Hormuz normalization, OPEC+ supply increase, and Russia export records reinforces Citigroup's $60 year-end Brent target — multiple simultaneous supply-side forces all pushing oil lower, consistent with the two-year inflation breakeven already falling below 2%Summary:OPEC+ raising output on top of Hormuz normalization and Russian export records is a three-source supply expansion that validates the deflationary oil thesis faster than even Citi's timeline implied. Each additional barrel per day coming to market reduces the geopolitical premium that has been the primary inflation driver of 2026 — and the market is already pricing it, with the two-year breakeven below 2% and Brent near $72. The question for Bitcoin is no longer whether the oil-driven inflation shock is reversing. It is how quickly the CPI data catches up to what the bond market is already pricing.SpaceX to Join Nasdaq-100 on July 7 After Rule Change; JPMorgan Sees $4.3B Passive InflowsKey Takeaways:SpaceX joins the Nasdaq-100 before the US market opens July 7 — the fastest inclusion since the index was created, just 15 trading days after its June 12 debut; made possible by Nasdaq rule changes effective May 1 allowing newly listed mega-caps in the top 40 by market value to apply after 15 daysJPMorgan estimates Nasdaq-100 tracking products alone force ~$4.3B in passive SpaceX buying; simultaneous MSCI and FTSE Russell global index inclusion could push total forced passive purchases to ~$35B over 15 trading daysSpaceX holds 18,712 BTC (~$1.2B at current prices) — every QQQ holder gains indirect Bitcoin exposure when SPCX is added Monday; the Mag8 thesis that SpaceX and Tesla on-balance-sheet BTC creates structural crypto exposure for mainstream equity investors gets mechanically embedded in the world's most widely held tech ETFSPCX closed at ~$162 at the July 2 close, valuing the company at ~$2.13T; the stock raised ~$86.25B including the greenshoe at its June 12 IPO at $135/shareSummary:$35B in forced passive buying across global indices for SpaceX on Monday is the single largest mechanical capital flow event in the crypto-adjacent equity space since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Every QQQ holder becomes an indirect Bitcoin holder as of Monday's open — a structural mainstreaming of Bitcoin treasury exposure through the world's most widely held tech ETF without any single investor making a discretionary crypto decision. The Mag8 thesis gets embedded in passive index mechanics at scale, and that embedding is permanent as long as SpaceX holds its BTC and stays in the Nasdaq-100.Market movers:NVDAB: $195.66 (-0.61%)MSFTB: $391.63 (+0.07%)SPCXB: $163.71 (+1.69%)METAB: $593.06 (+0.65%)TSLAB: $399.98 (-1.60%)MUB: $1007.78 (-2.72%)AMDB: $531.37 (-0.64%)INTCB: $124.47 (+0.42%)LITEB: $734.96 (-3.36%)QQQB: $721 (-0.22%)

Ether led crypto markets in holding above key technical levels as bitcoin steadied over $63,000. According to CoinDesk, sentiment remained cautious at the start of the second half as a stalling rebound in AI and chip stocks and a stronger dollar weighed on risk appetite.