$BTC has now seen its first rejection after tapping the 200-day moving average, which is currently sitting just above $82K.
From a classical charting perspective, the 200D SMA is a key trend filter. When price is below it and the line is sloping downward, the market is still in a structurally bearish phase.
Historically, in previous bear cycles, BTC has often only managed brief pushes into this level before getting rejected and continuing the broader downtrend.
A real shift in trend only happens when price can reclaim the 200D, hold it as support, and eventually force the moving average to flatten and turn higher. That’s what would signal a transition into a bullish structure.
So far, that hasn’t happened yet.
The 200D is still trending downward, price remains below it, and the first test has been rejected.
That said, since the 200D has been gradually moving lower over time, bulls could still get another opportunity to reclaim it if price stabilizes here and allows the moving average to compress closer into price.
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