📉 Bitcoin Unlikely to Hit $100K This Year, Markets Say
Prediction markets are signaling that Bitcoin probably won’t reclaim $100,000 before year-end.
As of December 12, Kalshi traders give BTC only a 34% chance of crossing $100K, while Polymarket is even more bearish at 29%.
🔥 BTC Stalls Below Key Levels
Bitcoin’s December price action has been quiet. This month’s high is $94,600, and BTC hasn’t seen six figures since November 13.
Macro uncertainty and cooling institutional demand continue to limit momentum.
Data from Capriole Investments shows that corporate BTC buying is slowing, suggesting large players are becoming more cautious.
Still, markets believe Strategy won’t sell anytime soon—and accumulation continues. Polymarket traders see a 65% chance that Strategy buys over 1,000 BTC this week, following its massive 10,624 BTC purchase last week that pushed holdings to 660,624 BTC.
📊 Technicals Give a Mixed Signal
Coinphoton data shows BTC forming an ascending triangle, but resistance remains heavy between $93,300–$94,000.
Analyst Daan Crypto Trades notes that a breakout above $94,000 could push BTC toward $108,000, though he expects resistance to cap upside around $98,000 due to liquidity clusters.
Right now, bulls need to drive BTC above $94,589 to reopen the path to the $98,000–$100,000 zone.
⚡ Bottom Line
Market sentiment is cooling, technicals are tightening, and prediction platforms now see BTC finishing the year below $100K—unless bulls spark a late-stage breakout.
