Market Update: US Non-Farm Payrolls (Nov Data)
Date: December 18, 2025

Traders, the dust is settling on this week’s critical labor data, and the signals are as mixed as they get. If you’re wondering why Bitcoin is ranging $86k and $88k without a clear direction, this report is the culprit.

Here is my Breakdown of what just happened and what it means for your portfolio. 👇

📊 The Data (Released Dec 16, 2025)

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): +64k Jobs Added (Actual) vs. +50k (Expected).

On paper, this is a "beat." But let’s be real—+64k is weak, especially after October’s disastrous -105k print. The labor market is cooling rapidly.

Unemployment Rate: 🚨 4.6% (Actual) vs. 4.4% (Expected).

This is the critical number. Unemployment has hit a 4-year high. A rising unemployment rate usually signals a recession is either here or knocking on the door.

Wage Growth (YoY): +3.5% (Cooling).

Inflationary pressure from wages is dropping. This gives the Fed room to cut rates, but they might be forced to cut due to economic weakness rather than victory over inflation.

💡 What This Means for Crypto & Markets

1. The "Bad News is Good News" Narrative is Fading
Previously, weak data meant "Fed Money Printer Go Brrr" (Rate Cuts = Bullish). But now, the data is so weak (Unemployment at 4.6%) that fears of a hard recession are taking over. If people lose jobs, they sell risk assets—including Crypto.

2. Bitcoin's Reaction ($BTC)
Bitcoin is currently stuck in a choppy range ($86,000 - $88,000). The initial pump on the NFP "beat" was sold off quickly because smart money saw the unemployment spike.

Bull Case: The Fed panics and cuts rates aggressively in Q1 2026 to save the labor market -> Liquidity floods back -> BTC to $100k.

Bear Case: Recession fears trigger a broad market sell-off (Equities & Crypto correlation) -> BTC tests support at $80k.

3. The Fed's Dilemma
With the Fed meeting looming, they are in a tough spot. They can't keep rates high with 4.6% unemployment, but they can't cut too fast if they fear inflation reigniting. Expect volatility to remain high through the end of the year.

🛡️ My Strategy & Outlook

Manual/Fundamental: I am cautious here. The rising unemployment trend is undeniable. Cash (stablecoins) is a position. I am looking for entries only on deep flushes, not chasing green candles.

Technical (Short Term): Watch the $85,000 zone on BTC. If we lose that, we could see a quick flush to $82k. Upside resistance is stiff at $90k.

Altcoins: Be very careful with high-beta alts. In recession scares, liquidity drains from alts back to BTC and Stablecoins first.

Bottom Line: Don't let the headline "Jobs Beat" fool you. The underlying trend is economic slowing. Protect your capital first.

(Disclaimer: DYOR - Do Your Own Research. NFA - Not Financial Advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk.)