Market Update: Pre-Christmas Liquidity & The "Hot" Inflation Scare

Date: December 18, 2025

Hello Traders! 👋

We are officially in the "Danger Zone" of the year. The Fed cut rates last week (Dec 10) to 3.50%-3.75%, but Bitcoin didn't fly to $100k. Why? Because the market is pricing in a recession, not a party.

Now, we are sitting at $87,350, watching the charts paint a very specific picture. Here is my "Next Move" strategy for you. 👇

Today (Dec 18) is crucial. We have US Weekly Jobless Claims and rumored "Hot" Inflation data dropping.

The Trap: If inflation ticks up after the Fed just cut rates, we are in trouble.

The Liquidity Drain: Big institutions are closing books for 2025. Volume is drying up. Low volume = Fake moves (wicks) that hunt your stop-losses.

🕯️ Technical Analysis

Pattern: BTC is forming a Bearish Consolidation Rectangle on the 4H timeframe.

Resistance: $88,200 - $88,500 (Heavy sell wall here).

Support: $85,500 (Must hold).

The "Flush" Zone: If we lose $85.5k, the next stop is $82k. This is where I have my "stink bids" (low buy orders) waiting.

🚀 My "Next Move"

1. The Scalp (High Risk)

Short: If price wicks up to $88,100 and rejects (look for a shooting star candle), I am shorting targeting $86,500.

Long:I am not longing the middle of the range. I will only long a bounce at $85,600 with a tight stop at $85,200.

2.The Swing (Low Risk)

Sit on your hands! The best trade right now is preserving capital for January 2026.

If you must buy, consider accumulating Ethereum if it dips below $4,000, as it often leads to Q1 rallies.

3. Altcoin

LayerZero (ZRO) and Jupiter (JUP) have massive token unlocks coming in late December. Avoid holding these spot positions unless you want to be exit liquidity for VCs.

The "Santa Rally" might just be a "Grinch Dump" this year if today's data comes in hot. Do not use high leverage (>5x) right now. The market makers are hunting liquidity before they go on holiday.

My Plan:

Wait for the 8:30 AM EST data print today.

If BTC drops to $ 85,500, I scalp long.

If BTC pumps to $88.5k -> I Short.#USNonFarmPayrollReport