BTC Below $89K: The Four-Year Cycle Debate Heats Up 🔄
Bitcoin trading at $88,203 this Saturday evening. Down 0.18% on the day, and more importantly, down over 30% from October's $126K all-time high. If you're feeling the pain, you're not alone—retail traders who bought near the top are now underwater heading into year-end.
But here's where it gets interesting. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says this is exactly what should be happening. According to his analysis, Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle is playing out perfectly on schedule. The pattern? Big bull run post-halving, followed by a crash in the 80% range, then a steady grind into the next halving. We hit the peak in October 2025, and now we're in the cooldown phase that could last deep into 2026.
Not everyone's buying it though. Bitwise's Matt Hougan and ARK's Cathie Wood both dismissed the four-year cycle idea this week, arguing that ETFs and institutional adoption have fundamentally changed the game. Meanwhile, China just injected 1.05 trillion Yuan into markets, and the US crypto structure bill got pushed to January. The Bessent vs Warren regulatory fight continues to shape sentiment.
Fear & Greed Index sitting at 28—still deep in fear territory. Market cap at $2.98T. Volume crashed 48% to $55B as everyone waits for direction. This is what distribution looks like. Not exciting, but necessary.
If the cycle theory holds, 2026 might be choppy. If the skeptics are right, we could bottom sooner than expected. Either way, the next few months will tell us which narrative wins.
