Eternel insatisfait

I would like to express my deep gratitude to the Square team for honoring me with the Best Analyst trophy. Receiving this award is a precious recognition of my efforts and dedication over the past years. Since 2018, the journey has been fraught with challenges, but each obstacle overcome has strengthened my determination and expertise. This trophy symbolizes not only a personal achievement but also the unwavering support of my colleagues and management.

I also want to acknowledge the path I have traveled, marked by moments of doubt and unexpected obstacles. These trials have been opportunities for growth and learning, allowing me to develop essential skills and forge a resilient spirit. This recognition is a source of inspiration and motivation for me to continue to surpass myself and actively contribute to the excellence of our team. I am deeply grateful to all those who have believed in me and supported me throughout this journey.

congratulations for me

SOLANA

Et pour SOL, je n’aime pas le PA ni la localisation pour être honnête. Je le garde ouvert pour le moment, mais si je n’étais pas en trade, je ne rentrerais pas maintenant.

Et c’est pareil pour tous les Altcoins.

Donc en gros, à part ETH qui me ferait entrer maintenant, pour tout le reste du marché je serais resté en stand-by en attendant des confirmations.
NFA

Pourquoi 2026 pourrait devenir l’une des années les plus bullish du marché.

Pas parce que “tout le monde le dit”, mais parce que plusieurs signaux macro, liquidi­té et comportement de marché convergent dans la même direction.

Voici ce qui se prépare 👇
1/ Le cycle n’est pas terminé

Le bull run actuel montre des signes d’extension, défiant les cycles historiques de 4 ans.
2/ 2026 = vague de liquidités

Entre un assouplissement monétaire possible, des plans d'investissement publics et des flux institutionnels déjà engagés, 2026 s’annonce riche en capitaux.

Et la crypto est l’actif le plus réactif à la liquidité globale.
3/ Le cycle économique l’indique aussi

Cuivre en hausse, or solide : ce combo pointe vers une phase d’expansion économique.

Quand l’économie accélère, les investisseurs augmentent leur prise de risque.

Historiquement, ces phases boostent les actifs risqués… dont la crypto.
4/ La dette est plus longue, les taux plus bas plus longtemps

Les États et entreprises ont repoussé les échéances de dette.

Moins de pression à court terme = plus d’espace pour investir et spéculer.

Un environnement de taux bas prolongé soutient naturellement les marchés à risque.
5/ Le comportement des “gros acheteurs” est révélateur

Les données on-chain montrent une accumulation discrète, très proche de celle de l’été 2021.

Quand les acteurs avisés accumulent pendant que le marché doute… l’histoire rime souvent avec une phase explosive derrière moi

6/ Explosion vs dernière baisse

La structure actuelle peut mener à deux scénarios :

- une accélération majeure
- ou un dernier dip avant une reprise plus violente.

Dans les deux cas, les conditions 2026 restent alignées pour une forte phase haussière.

Crypto made this year feel worse than:

-COVID crash
-FTX collapse
-LUNA crash
-SEC + Gensler’s lawsuit spree
-Celsius & BlockFi bankruptcies
-3AC collapsed.

And yet…

-Stocks sitting at ATHs
-Gold & silver in parabolic pump and ATHs
-Fed buying T-bills
-Global M2 keeps expanding
-A US pro-crypto president in office
-Regulatory Clarity and Pro-Crypto Policies in the US
-Crypto Institutional Adoption

We are not scared anymore, we are tired.

Tired of waiting
Tired of believing

But listen, market rallies don’t start when hope is high, it’s when people are tired, frustrated, and ready to give up.
#USChinaDeal
#courageholder

$BTC 4 weeks later. Still in the range.

Sentiment flipping based on every last daily candle colour. Meanwhile we've just been moving up and down in a choppy fashion, while trading in between these two larger levels.

I'll repeat one more time that I don't think you'd be missing much if you log off and come back somewhere early January. These next few weeks ahead are generally very choppy and lack direction due to low liquidity/volumes etc.

Bitcoin est pile dans un timing parfait pour piéger les bulls.
Le momentum s’essouffle, l’élan ralentit, et les timeframes élevés ne confirment toujours pas une vraie continuation.

Ça n’invalide absolument pas la thèse long terme.
Mais dans un cycle de marché, le timing prime toujours sur la conviction.

Les bull traps ne se forment jamais au bottom.
Ils apparaissent quand la confiance revient trop vite, alors que la structure commence déjà à se dégrader.

Ces rallys donnent une illusion de solidité.
Ils sont propres, convaincants… jusqu’au moment où la liquidité se retire et où le prix réintègre sa range.

De mon côté, mon biais reste incertain.
L’invalidation structurelle se situerait au-dessus des 74k.

En revanche, la tendance reste clairement baissière sur les timeframes Daily, H4 et H1 depuis un bon moment.

Le marché ne monte ni ne baisse par opinion.
Il monte ou baisse par structure.

Et à l’instant T, la structure envoie un signal d’alerte.

⚠️ Faites attention à vos prises de décision :
le marché n’est pas là pour vous récompenser rapidement.

$BTC longs

Target 2 hit to the tick✅, thanks for playing

Alright ! Price hit our second target here at CME close.

Pretty much to the exact tick. That hit our 10% limits and took us out with a TP portion that is up a whopping 7.34 RR

Aside from a runner, this trade is pretty much done for me for the most part.

"How do you do it Astro, how is your system so precise, how do you always call all these entries and targets, how do you get 6 wins in a row just like that, all in public for the world to see?

I back test 14 hours per day. And although I can't share just everything - that would make my posts way too long, I try to share as much as I can already in public to prevent you to have to do the same back testing.

I hope you are enjoying the show, and I wish you the joy with the money we made with this trade so far.

An absolute blast, 5k move with this trade and an entry sniped with precision.

Targets laid out in advance.

I thank you, and I wish you a very very good night.

🟠 RISQUE SYSTÉMIQUE SUR BITCOIN ?! SYNTHÈSE CLAIRE 🚨

Les ETF détiennent ~60 % de leurs positions sous l’eau, soit près de 100 Md$ de pertes latentes.

→ Zone clé : coût de base agrégé à 82 000 $, aligné avec le Fibonacci critique à 81 500 $.

Forte pression de vente potentielle sur cette zone.

• La structure graphique forme un Bear Flag.
→ Objectif technique : 71 000 $.
→ Sous 70 000 $, risque de capitulation des mineurs.

• Le contexte macro amplifie le risque.
→ Unwind du carry trade JPY de plus en plus probable (BOJ hawkish)
→ Contraction de la liquidité mondiale.

• Corrélation marchés tradis / crypto :
→ -10 % sur le S&P 500 pourrait entraîner
-18 % à -22 % sur BTC.
→ Zone plancher estimée : 62 000 – 68 000 $.

• Sous 88 500 $, les market makers sont en Short Gamma.

Chaque baisse s’auto-accélère mécaniquement.

• Valeur attendue (EV) du BTC : ~76 750 $.
Asymétrie du risque clairement baissière.

Conclusion :
Le risque $BTC n’est plus isolé :
c’est désormais un risque systémique déguisé.

Le marché doit d’abord purger :

- Les positions institutionnelles sous l’eau
- Les mineurs en difficulté

La fenêtre macro critique (fin 2025 – Q1 2026), combinée aux échéances d’options et à la structure technique actuelle, impose une vigilance maximale.

🚨 LE $BTC ENTRE DANS UNE ZONE DE FATIGUE ON-CHAIN

Les opérations sur la blockchain deviennent de moins en moins rentables.

Le SOPR Trend est l’un des indicateurs on-chain les plus fiables pour identifier les zones de sommets et de creux locaux du $BTC.
Il permet de savoir si les transactions se font majoritairement en profit ou en perte.

Aujourd’hui, le signal est orienté à la baisse.
Cela signifie que les transactions génèrent des profits de plus en plus faibles, voire des pertes.

Historiquement, une baisse prolongée du SOPR est typique d’un marché baissier.
Le véritable plancher n’est généralement atteint qu’au moment où des signaux de retournement positifs réapparaissent.

À ce stade, tout indique qu’il faudra encore plusieurs mois avant une confirmation claire.

$BTC UPDATE

As anticipated, BTC bounced more than 2% from the $85,550 support and is now in the process of retesting the lower-timeframe breakdown level.

As mentioned earlier, I’m looking to short this retest, as it aligns with the two key resistance levels (red box) and the golden Fibonacci retracement of the recent dump (blue box).

Trade setup:

Entries: 87,470 – 88,120

Targets: 85,550 – 82,330 – 78,385

Invalidation: 4H close above 88,400

I expect price to push into resistance and potentially sweep liquidity above, which is why I’m scaling into the position with two entries — one at the lower and one at the upper end of the resistance zone.

As long as we don’t get a 4H close above the invalidation level, the short bias remains intact. A confirmed close above would shift the focus toward long setups.

On peut voir cette semaine une explosion inédite du volume d'achats institutionnels de Bitcoin sur Coinbase (courbe bleue en forte ascension verticale).

C'est 76% du volume total... Un tel pic indique une confiance institutionnelle toujours présente malgré la baisse des dernières semaines 👀

📉 MARCHÉ EN BAISSE : QUE FAIRE ?

➡️ 1. Garder son calme
Les baisses font partie du marché. Paniquer mène souvent à de mauvaises décisions.

➡️ 2. Ne pas investir par émotion
N’utilisez jamais de l’argent dont vous avez besoin à court terme.

➡️ 3. Apprendre et observer
Ces périodes sont idéales pour comprendre le marché et renforcer ses bases.

➡️ 4. Penser long terme
Les marchés évoluent par cycles. La patience et la discipline font la différence.

💡 Les baisses ne sont pas la fin, mais une phase du parcours.

#BinanceHODLerMorpho
#ETHBreaksATH
#FOMCWatch

$BTC longs

Adjusted SL a bit and enlarging trim 1.

Price still sitting at 89.7k.

So far we TP'd 30% at 89.6k to make it risk free.

Decided to TP another 10% here as price is stalling at our exact purple POI and some longs are building (green imbalances and red sell limits), essentially enlarging the trim.

Also adjusted SL to 87.5k which, both moves combined turn the risk free trade into a tiny win.

Not a proper win yet and not counting this one. We need 90.2k for that.

It's coming. But again, for psychological reasons, to easily hold the trade longer, and to allow for potential recompounds with these profits here, it's a logical move.

Still have 60% on the table yet it's up already 1.8 RR here. I want more though, and I promise you the path will follow the light.

After this, quite likely this very brief period of dawn here first.

$BTC Two weeks into December and price is pretty much flat.

Meanwhile, we've seen quite a lot of daily moves in this larger range we're in. Just a very choppy period into the end of the year which is pretty common.

I assume it remains this way until the new year when everyone is back at their desk and volumes & liquidity improve.

Doubt we see any meaningful move before that. Especially as we're closing in on the Christmas days.

Wouldn't be surprised if you could just log off for 3-4 weeks, come back and not have missed much.

🎉 Today, I celebrate another year of growth & purpose 🎉

On this special day, I’m taking a moment to reflect on the journey so far — the lessons learned, the community built, and the impact still to come.

If my content, my work, or my presence has ever added value to you, today is a great day to share the energy back 💙
✨ A kind message
✨ A tip
✨ Or even a small birthday giveaway

Every gesture, big or small, fuels motivation and positive momentum.

Thank you for being part of this journey.
Let’s keep building, learning, and growing — together.

🙏 Positive vibes only today
🚀 The best is yet to come

#Grateful #BirthdayVibes #PositiveEnergy #CommunityPower #GrowthMindset

This market makes ZERO sense right now.

We just got one of the most bullish FOMC updates since 2022:

- 3 Rates cut in 2025
- Inflation cooling
- QT has ended after 3 year
- Billions Liquidity Injection

- Stocks at near ATH
- Gold added like $13 trillion to its mcap
- Silver up 125% in 2025

Almost every asset pumped

But Crypto? It keeps dumping.

At some point, you realize headlines don’t move this market anymore; emotions do.

Price moves more because of fear, impatience, and exhaustion than because of any news.

And the ones who control real liquidity? They’re not playing for retail. The strategy is always the same:

- Make them doubt
- Destroy retail confidence
- Let fear and uncertainty push them out
- Then quietly accumulate in the background.

TradFi adoption is growing. Crypto ignored.

This is not random; it’s the cycle. The crowd has always been distracted by “safe and secured” narratives while the smart money does the move silently.

Most investors won’t notice.
They’ll just feel tired and frustrated. And that’s when the shift usually starts.

Weak hands have never been rewarded. Silence always comes before the big breakout.

If you’re still here, keep holding. You don’t need perfect entries to win; just ignore the noise.

Markets may pump and dump, but conviction and discipline let you survive every cycle.

The next leg up won’t reward the loudest, only those who stayed through the hardest moments like this.

$BTC shorts

Closing for tiny win/essentially BE for now.

Monitoring on my main swing trade monitoring timeframe, which is the 30 minute here.

I do not like this structure of lower highs looking like a clean trendline on both $BTC and also on $ETH.

Hoped London session would drop us, but it didn't and gave compression into a triangle instead.

Generally means it's going to retest the wick above before dropping.

So waited as long as possible until hitting bottom of triangle before closing to present you all the best exit (slight win but not counting this, nothing happened), and checking the reaction at the wick before reentering.

Would also love more $ETH-$BTC mmd for extra confirmation.

Plan of 87.7k is still the play. This is just about finding the entry.

Conviction with quarter size wasn't that high eitherway. With some extra confluence, happy to go in harder on the retest.

See you on the next post. Where I look to reshort if the reaction at the wick if good.

$BTC, another short?

Yes. You could absolutely short again there. Or even at 92.5 k here also.

Personally, I am just continuing to hold this short to hit the runners at 87.7k as I still think that is coming, not interested in any new shorts.

We're still ranging between the 0.5 - 0.75, just tapped our 0.75 level again, so it's just about breaking this to downside IMO where the next long opp exists as per our ancient plan of waiting for 87.7k

$BTC This time has not proven itself to be any different, so far.

Good initial bounce from that .382 Fibonacci retracement level from the entire cycle move.

This was also about the lowest price could realistically go, without breaking the weekly market structure.

Clear invalidation for the larger timeframe view for me. Below November's lows would make for a scary place to be for the bulls.

As we're nearing the end of the year, a lot of the "4 year cycle selling" should also be diminishing. I think Q1 2026 is going to be very interesting as it will show us where this cycle wants to go next.