There’s a critical difference between price moving higher and price being accepted at higher levels. With $HYPE, the recent push looked strong on the surface — but structurally, it wasn’t.
Price expanded straight into a major supply zone without building any base. No consolidation. No acceptance. Just a final extension where late buyers chased strength and ran directly into resting sell orders. Once the highs were tagged, upside was sold immediately. That’s not strength — that’s demand exhaustion.
The key takeaway here isn’t about calling a top. It’s about reading what the market is telling you: • Price failed to hold above resistance • Buyers couldn’t defend the highs • Momentum stalled and started to flip
Markets rarely reverse out of nowhere. They rotate when structure stops supporting continuation. This is what that transition looks like.
As long as this supply zone caps price, the higher-probability path is a controlled move lower — not because the trend is “dead”, but because the market needs to rebalance after excess.
Good trading isn’t about predicting. It’s about listening when the market quietly changes its tone.
After the selloff, price found a solid demand pocket and sellers couldn’t force continuation lower. The recent lows didn’t expand, reactions are getting bought, and momentum is beginning to flatten instead of accelerating down. That’s usually what absorption looks like before a range starts forming.
As long as ZAMA holds above support, this move feels more like early basing than another leg down.
The pop higher ran straight into overhead supply and stalled immediately. Price can’t reclaim the broken structure, rejection keeps printing on the highs, and momentum is already rolling back over. This doesn’t look like acceptance — it looks like bids getting absorbed into resistance.
As long as SENT stays capped under this zone, the move up reads as a pause before continuation lower, not a reversal.
$TRADOOR already did the hard part — it expanded out of the range and didn’t fall back in. Price is accepting above the old ceiling, pullbacks are shallow, and buyers are actively defending the new base. That’s not hype, that’s structure.
As long as this floor holds, this isn’t a spike — it’s continuation loading.
The account that called the downside didn’t do it with noise or hopium. While most were buying every dip, they mapped a broad downside window — anywhere from a shallow pullback to a deep cycle drawdown. The reaction was predictable. Laughter first. Then silence.
From the Oct 6, 2025 high to Feb 2, Bitcoin slid roughly 40%, landing right where that cycle window pointed. Not hindsight. Just patience and structure playing out.
Now the calendar flips.
In their yearly cycle framework, Feb 2 sits at a pivot point — the kind that doesn’t feel obvious in real time. If that model holds, the next phase favors expansion, not continuation lower. A +40% move from here lines up with the ~$104K area into late summer.
No certainty. No promises. Just a level, a window, and a market that already respected the model once.
Ignore it… or come back in six months and decide then.
There’s a lot of noisy takes around $LTC lately, even from accounts with big reach.
The main argument going around is simple: the long-term lower trend rail broke, so Litecoin is finished. That’s lazy analysis. Price has slipped below similar rails more than once in the past, and every time, context mattered far more than a single diagonal line.
Trendlines aren’t laws of physics. They’re interpretations. How you draw them depends on what swings you anchor, what timeframe you respect, and how price is behaving now. Adjusting a trendline to reflect structure isn’t cheating — it’s part of reading the market.
What most people are ignoring is the one thing that actually matters here: for nearly nine years, $LTC has never printed a weekly lower low. That’s not a minor detail. That’s the backbone of the long-term structure.
If a clean HTF lower low finally prints, then yes — the thesis changes. Until that happens, declaring the trend “dead” is just narrative chasing.
As expected, a lower low has been formed, taking out previous low and liquidity levels.
From here, the trend is very much bearish, however there is a bullish divergence that has formed against the Stochastic.
I believe we will see a short rebound, but the bearish FVG area and resistance zone is the maximum level it will probably bounce to before heading lower.
After tagging local lows, sell pressure dried up quickly and bids stepped in with intent. The reaction wasn’t a slow drift — it was absorption, followed by stabilization. Structure is starting to repair on lower timeframes, and as long as ETH holds above the reclaimed base, this looks like a relief bounce that can extend rather than a one-candle wonder.
Not chasing strength — positioning where sellers already failed.
It can also show up late — after a heavy correction has already done most of the damage. That’s why #Bitcoin can’t keep printing lower lows around the $75k area if bulls want this cycle intact.
For the 4-year cycle to actually reset, $BTC needs to reclaim the 50W MA and close above it. That level sits near $100,400 right now. Not a wick. Not a spike. A clean weekly close.
That’s the line where momentum flips back to the bulls.
Just as important: price must continue to hold above the April 2025 low and start putting in weekly closes that show real demand stepping back in. Not hope. Not chop. Actual acceptance.
SCENARIO 2
If Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low, the story simplifies fast.
Break that level and structure changes: The higher-low framework fails. Downside targets open. What looked like consolidation turns into continuation.
From there, it’s no longer about patience — it’s about defense.