ALISHBA SOZAR
X: ALISHBASOZAR 🎉 UID : 966954878
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"I have made a lot of people very rich. I know a lot of rich guys. Not one has made money from trading. And not one has made money from being short"
-- Tom Lee
-- Tom Lee
Unpopular opinion: 2025 has been the worst year in crypto history
Altcoins made a new local low today.
Despite eth/btc uptrend
Despite btc dominance drop
Despite the russel 2000
Despite QT ending
Despite Total3
Despite ...
"She's just delusional! She knows nothing"
Guys I would absolutely love nothing more than say altseason starts tomorrow and join in with all the others sharing 100s of charts why we will.
But I've been saying it for quite a while now. PRICE ACTION IS KING.
When alts in general are in a downtrend, they are in a DOWNTREND.
You can say 100s of reasons why a pinguin will soon be able to fly because it has feathers, it has a beak, it has wings, it's a bird, it lays eggs.
But if you don't see the pinguin show the earliest signs of taking flight, it simply won't.
Will we eventually reverse? Likely yes.
But there is a time and place for everything. Untill it does and untill we see momentum/inflows come in again, it simply won't.
Not that difficult to spot a reversal on charts like OTHERS or OTHERS dominance either.
It's also a fairy tail made by inexperienced investors that the biggest risk to reward takes place when assets are down 80-90%.
Discounts don't care about timing either. Just because an asset is heavily down, doesn't mean it's extremely close of going up soon.
The best risk to reward comes after confirmation (your asset will still be 80%+ down don't worry)
It's not about being a bull or a bear. The most profitable bulls are those that can put their capital to work when it matters most.
There will be a time and place for us. It just won't be tomorrow yet.
Because make no mistake: alts are NOT looking bullish.
At least not yet.
Despite eth/btc uptrend
Despite btc dominance drop
Despite the russel 2000
Despite QT ending
Despite Total3
Despite ...
"She's just delusional! She knows nothing"
Guys I would absolutely love nothing more than say altseason starts tomorrow and join in with all the others sharing 100s of charts why we will.
But I've been saying it for quite a while now. PRICE ACTION IS KING.
When alts in general are in a downtrend, they are in a DOWNTREND.
You can say 100s of reasons why a pinguin will soon be able to fly because it has feathers, it has a beak, it has wings, it's a bird, it lays eggs.
But if you don't see the pinguin show the earliest signs of taking flight, it simply won't.
Will we eventually reverse? Likely yes.
But there is a time and place for everything. Untill it does and untill we see momentum/inflows come in again, it simply won't.
Not that difficult to spot a reversal on charts like OTHERS or OTHERS dominance either.
It's also a fairy tail made by inexperienced investors that the biggest risk to reward takes place when assets are down 80-90%.
Discounts don't care about timing either. Just because an asset is heavily down, doesn't mean it's extremely close of going up soon.
The best risk to reward comes after confirmation (your asset will still be 80%+ down don't worry)
It's not about being a bull or a bear. The most profitable bulls are those that can put their capital to work when it matters most.
There will be a time and place for us. It just won't be tomorrow yet.
Because make no mistake: alts are NOT looking bullish.
At least not yet.
You are worshipping the wrong calendar.
The "4-Year Cycle" is officially dead.
It was never about the Halving code. It was always a proxy for the Public Debt Refinancing Cycle. Post-COVID, that timeline shifted.
• The debt maturity structure changed.
• The liquidity cycle pushed right.
• The bull market extends deep into 2026.
Everyone is panic-selling the chop because they think the clock ran out. In reality, the base is just getting bigger.
The Halving is a meme. Global Liquidity is the math. I know which one I’m following.
The "4-Year Cycle" is officially dead.
It was never about the Halving code. It was always a proxy for the Public Debt Refinancing Cycle. Post-COVID, that timeline shifted.
• The debt maturity structure changed.
• The liquidity cycle pushed right.
• The bull market extends deep into 2026.
Everyone is panic-selling the chop because they think the clock ran out. In reality, the base is just getting bigger.
The Halving is a meme. Global Liquidity is the math. I know which one I’m following.
they’re trying to convert all the bulls left
perfect timing 🙂
perfect timing 🙂
This market is exhausting.
Yet another dump.
Bitcoin from 86k → 90k → 86k
All in a matter of hours.
No clear catalyst.
Extreme volatility.
Leverage traders rekt again.
When will this end?
People will call it natural.
Others will call it “healthy price action.”
But let’s be honest.
This isn’t organic.
This is crowded positioning being punished.
Leverage being flushed.
Emotions being tested.
The swings are violent by design.
Just enough to shake confidence.
Just enough to force bad decisions.
Just enough to make people question why they’re even here.
And that’s the point.
These moves aren’t meant to ‘mean’ anything or be caused by any reason.
They’re meant to exhaust us.
So when people ask, “When does this end?”
The truth is, no one knows.
But what’s clear is this:
Too many have already left Crypto already.
And many more will continue to do so
as long as this kind of volatility remains in this market.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
Yet another dump.
Bitcoin from 86k → 90k → 86k
All in a matter of hours.
No clear catalyst.
Extreme volatility.
Leverage traders rekt again.
When will this end?
People will call it natural.
Others will call it “healthy price action.”
But let’s be honest.
This isn’t organic.
This is crowded positioning being punished.
Leverage being flushed.
Emotions being tested.
The swings are violent by design.
Just enough to shake confidence.
Just enough to force bad decisions.
Just enough to make people question why they’re even here.
And that’s the point.
These moves aren’t meant to ‘mean’ anything or be caused by any reason.
They’re meant to exhaust us.
So when people ask, “When does this end?”
The truth is, no one knows.
But what’s clear is this:
Too many have already left Crypto already.
And many more will continue to do so
as long as this kind of volatility remains in this market.
$BTC $ETH $BNB
🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING MANIPULATED, AND I HAVE SOLID PROOF!!!
Everyone’s talking about how Bitcoin went up $3,000 and then down $4,000 in minutes.
Everyone’s posting about it…
but nobody seems to understand what actually happened.
You need to look at the flows, not the chart.
Within minutes you had Wintermute, Binance, Coinbase, and ETF-linked wallets all getting active at the same time.
Large blocks moving exchange to exchange, HUGE market buys hitting thin books, then just as fast…
THEY DUMPED IT ALL.
Here’s what actually happened:
– Liquidity was low
– Leverage was stacked on one side
– Funding was already stretched
So price gets shoved up aggressively to trigger FOMO and, more importantly, to pull in fresh longs and push existing shorts out of the way.
Once enough leverage was trapped?
They started dumping all their coins.
You can literally see it in the data:
– Coordinated inflows to major venues
– Market buys clustered in a tight window
– Immediate reversal once stops were cleared
– Heavy selling right after liquidation levels were tagged
That’s not organic demand, that’s liquidity hunt.
This is how large players trade size without chasing price…
They move the market to where the orders are, force liquidations, then unload into the chaos they just created.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they went long/short with hidden wallets.
If you’re new, understand this now:
Bitcoin NEVER move like this because of news.
It moves because leverage piles up, and someone with size decides it’s time to rekt everyone.
Watch funding. Watch open interest. Watch who’s moving coins, not who’s tweeting charts.
$BTC
Everyone’s talking about how Bitcoin went up $3,000 and then down $4,000 in minutes.
Everyone’s posting about it…
but nobody seems to understand what actually happened.
You need to look at the flows, not the chart.
Within minutes you had Wintermute, Binance, Coinbase, and ETF-linked wallets all getting active at the same time.
Large blocks moving exchange to exchange, HUGE market buys hitting thin books, then just as fast…
THEY DUMPED IT ALL.
Here’s what actually happened:
– Liquidity was low
– Leverage was stacked on one side
– Funding was already stretched
So price gets shoved up aggressively to trigger FOMO and, more importantly, to pull in fresh longs and push existing shorts out of the way.
Once enough leverage was trapped?
They started dumping all their coins.
You can literally see it in the data:
– Coordinated inflows to major venues
– Market buys clustered in a tight window
– Immediate reversal once stops were cleared
– Heavy selling right after liquidation levels were tagged
That’s not organic demand, that’s liquidity hunt.
This is how large players trade size without chasing price…
They move the market to where the orders are, force liquidations, then unload into the chaos they just created.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they went long/short with hidden wallets.
If you’re new, understand this now:
Bitcoin NEVER move like this because of news.
It moves because leverage piles up, and someone with size decides it’s time to rekt everyone.
Watch funding. Watch open interest. Watch who’s moving coins, not who’s tweeting charts.
$BTC
I think it’s time to throw this cheatsheet in the garbage once and for all, because none of that shit happened in this order. As a matter of fact, nothing happened at all.
We’ve only been watching $BTC make new ATHs day after day, while #altcoins kept getting screwed more and more every single day.
These Market Makers are ruthless. They managed to disgust millions of people with #crypto
It’s almost the end of December and there are still no signs of #altseason. Now everyone is looking at Q1 2026. I don’t have any timeline anymore. All I know is this, I’M NOT SELLING.
We’ve only been watching $BTC make new ATHs day after day, while #altcoins kept getting screwed more and more every single day.
These Market Makers are ruthless. They managed to disgust millions of people with #crypto
It’s almost the end of December and there are still no signs of #altseason. Now everyone is looking at Q1 2026. I don’t have any timeline anymore. All I know is this, I’M NOT SELLING.
If you’re in crypto right now, you’re probably:
• Seeing red and panicking
• Thinking about selling
• Hoping for a bounce before the year ends
• Feeling stressed
• Learning from mistakes
• Holding tight anyway
• Ready to act when the price moves
Remember, dips don’t last forever, but the lessons you learn now will pay off later.
$BNB $ETH $BTC
• Seeing red and panicking
• Thinking about selling
• Hoping for a bounce before the year ends
• Feeling stressed
• Learning from mistakes
• Holding tight anyway
• Ready to act when the price moves
Remember, dips don’t last forever, but the lessons you learn now will pay off later.
$BNB $ETH $BTC
Market sentiment is so down in the gutter
Everything you invested in in the past year is down bad
Except Bitcoin (which is down 6% YTD) and a few major alts, there aren't many coins you'd want to invest in at the moment
The stock market is near all-time highs, gold & silver at ATHs
Treasury bills have outperformed Bitcoin all year
Alts, memes, projects with tens of billions in TVL, all down in the gutter
Most altcoins are back to the 2022 bear market lows
That's how bad things are at the moment
We've had insane amounts of bullish catalysts this year.
Wall Street is literally opening floodgates for digital assets, with every major bank and institution adopting digital assets in some form or another
It's been an absolutely trash year, but I hope it gets better next year.
Everything you invested in in the past year is down bad
Except Bitcoin (which is down 6% YTD) and a few major alts, there aren't many coins you'd want to invest in at the moment
The stock market is near all-time highs, gold & silver at ATHs
Treasury bills have outperformed Bitcoin all year
Alts, memes, projects with tens of billions in TVL, all down in the gutter
Most altcoins are back to the 2022 bear market lows
That's how bad things are at the moment
We've had insane amounts of bullish catalysts this year.
Wall Street is literally opening floodgates for digital assets, with every major bank and institution adopting digital assets in some form or another
It's been an absolutely trash year, but I hope it gets better next year.
🚨 10am manipulation activated again.
9:30 AM US market opens
- Bitcoin jumped $2,865, from $87,500 to $90,365 in just 30 minutes.
- Around $80B added to crypto market
- Around $106 million worth of shorts liquidated within 30 minutes.
10:00 AM
The manipulation starts
- Bitcoin dropped $4,000, from $90,365 to $86,300 in the next 90 minutes.
- Around $130B erased from total market cap.
- Around $150M in longs liquidated within 1 hour.
Same sequence. Same timing.
$BTC
9:30 AM US market opens
- Bitcoin jumped $2,865, from $87,500 to $90,365 in just 30 minutes.
- Around $80B added to crypto market
- Around $106 million worth of shorts liquidated within 30 minutes.
10:00 AM
The manipulation starts
- Bitcoin dropped $4,000, from $90,365 to $86,300 in the next 90 minutes.
- Around $130B erased from total market cap.
- Around $150M in longs liquidated within 1 hour.
Same sequence. Same timing.
$BTC
Best pattern 🤣
$BTC
$BTC
Bitcoin was testing $90K an hour ago, up on the day.
Now Bitcoin is testing $86K, down on the day.
Good times.
$BTC
Now Bitcoin is testing $86K, down on the day.
Good times.
$BTC
That was a nice 20 minute bullrun
see you all again in 3 years for another 🥳
see you all again in 3 years for another 🥳
I’ll put it in writing 90% of traders just got trapped.
Crypto markets are moving exactly like this now: liquidity traps, again and again. $BTC
Crypto markets are moving exactly like this now: liquidity traps, again and again. $BTC
WHY IS BITCOIN STILL DUMPING WHILE INSTITUTIONS ARE MAKING BILLION DOLLAR BUYS?
Bitcoin is not going down because fundamentals are weak.
It is going down because selling pressure is stronger and coming from deeper sources.
One major reason is China’s mining crackdown coming back into focus.
China has again restricted Bitcoin mining, and the network hash rate has dropped by around 8%.
That is a very large move, especially when China still controls roughly 14% of global hash power.
To understand why this matters, look at history.
In 2021, China banned mining province by province when it controlled over 50% of the hash rate.
Today the share is lower, but an 8% hash rate drop still forces real reactions from miners and large holders.
Now connect this to price behavior.
Bitcoin has been trending lower even while institutions are buying billions worth of BTC.
That only happens when forced selling is happening.
There are two main sources of that selling.
FIRST: OG ASIAN WHALES
Many early Bitcoin holders are based in Asia, especially China.
If these holders expected renewed mining pressure, it makes sense that they started selling weeks earlier, not after the news became public.
Onchain data already shows higher selling from long term holders over the past 1 to 2 months.
SECOND: MINER CAPITULATION
When miners are forced to shut down:
- Revenue stops
- Equipment is sold
- BTC reserves are sold to manage losses
This selling is not a choice.
It happens no matter where the price is.
Now look at where the selling is actually happening.
US ETF outflows exist, but if we remove a few very large days, they are not big enough to explain how fast and how deep the drop has been.
The clearer signal comes from regional exchange data.
Asian exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX show steady net spot selling, especially throughout Q4.
At the same time, Coinbase, which reflects more US based flows, continues to show net buying.
That difference is very important.
It tells us:
- The US is still buying
- Most of the selling pressure is coming from Asia, not the West
This explains the contradiction many people are confused by.
Bitcoin can fall even during strong institutional buying if:
- OG holders are selling
- Miners are forced to sell
- Selling is happening where trading activity is highest
This is not panic selling.
This is supply changing hands.
And price usually stays weak until that pressure is gone.
It is going down because selling pressure is stronger and coming from deeper sources.
One major reason is China’s mining crackdown coming back into focus.
China has again restricted Bitcoin mining, and the network hash rate has dropped by around 8%.
That is a very large move, especially when China still controls roughly 14% of global hash power.
To understand why this matters, look at history.
In 2021, China banned mining province by province when it controlled over 50% of the hash rate.
Today the share is lower, but an 8% hash rate drop still forces real reactions from miners and large holders.
Now connect this to price behavior.
Bitcoin has been trending lower even while institutions are buying billions worth of BTC.
That only happens when forced selling is happening.
There are two main sources of that selling.
FIRST: OG ASIAN WHALES
Many early Bitcoin holders are based in Asia, especially China.
If these holders expected renewed mining pressure, it makes sense that they started selling weeks earlier, not after the news became public.
Onchain data already shows higher selling from long term holders over the past 1 to 2 months.
SECOND: MINER CAPITULATION
When miners are forced to shut down:
- Revenue stops
- Equipment is sold
- BTC reserves are sold to manage losses
This selling is not a choice.
It happens no matter where the price is.
Now look at where the selling is actually happening.
US ETF outflows exist, but if we remove a few very large days, they are not big enough to explain how fast and how deep the drop has been.
The clearer signal comes from regional exchange data.
Asian exchanges like Binance, Bybit, and OKX show steady net spot selling, especially throughout Q4.
At the same time, Coinbase, which reflects more US based flows, continues to show net buying.
That difference is very important.
It tells us:
- The US is still buying
- Most of the selling pressure is coming from Asia, not the West
This explains the contradiction many people are confused by.
Bitcoin can fall even during strong institutional buying if:
- OG holders are selling
- Miners are forced to sell
- Selling is happening where trading activity is highest
This is not panic selling.
This is supply changing hands.
And price usually stays weak until that pressure is gone.
This pump hit me hard. It’s been my worst trading week of the year so far, with 3 losses in a row something that hasn’t happened in a long time.
That said, since October 15 I’ve still won 27 out of 39 trades, which is a 69.23% win rate.
I need to take a step back and re-evaluate what has been working and how to avoid this situation going forward. Because of that, I’m not jumping straight into a new trade.
Please understand that I’m also taking real losses here. Losses are simply part of trading, which is exactly why you should never risk more than 3–5% of your total trading capital on a single trade. If you lose all your money, you’re out of the game and restarting is the hardest part. Protecting your capital is rule number one.
$BTC
That said, since October 15 I’ve still won 27 out of 39 trades, which is a 69.23% win rate.
I need to take a step back and re-evaluate what has been working and how to avoid this situation going forward. Because of that, I’m not jumping straight into a new trade.
Please understand that I’m also taking real losses here. Losses are simply part of trading, which is exactly why you should never risk more than 3–5% of your total trading capital on a single trade. If you lose all your money, you’re out of the game and restarting is the hardest part. Protecting your capital is rule number one.
$BTC
🎁✨✨🚨
This cycle was indeed a reset. It’s very obvious that general public sentiment is always wrong.
Everyone called crypto a scam back in 2017; the result was that every token delivered crazy returns.
In 2021, there was some improvement, but the overall sentiment was still that crypto was a bubble and a complete scam. As a result, the majority of tokens delivered amazing returns, and we saw multiples of 100x and even 1000x.
Now coming to this cycle, 2025: overall sentiment has tremendously shifted, and everyone suddenly became ultra bearish on Bitcoin and giga bullish on altcoins. The result: Bitcoin delivered insane gains, while altcoins had their worst performance since inception, if we exclude AI coins.
Now to the most important takeaway: I believe that after this cycle, the reset will be completed, and we’ll be back to the general sentiment that crypto is a big scam and a Ponzi which is exactly what we need to have another brilliant run later in 2029.
Many wouldn’t want to hear this simply because they can’t afford to wait another four years. That’s their only problem and the main reason they refuse to change their bias.
This cycle was indeed a reset. It’s very obvious that general public sentiment is always wrong.
Everyone called crypto a scam back in 2017; the result was that every token delivered crazy returns.
In 2021, there was some improvement, but the overall sentiment was still that crypto was a bubble and a complete scam. As a result, the majority of tokens delivered amazing returns, and we saw multiples of 100x and even 1000x.
Now coming to this cycle, 2025: overall sentiment has tremendously shifted, and everyone suddenly became ultra bearish on Bitcoin and giga bullish on altcoins. The result: Bitcoin delivered insane gains, while altcoins had their worst performance since inception, if we exclude AI coins.
Now to the most important takeaway: I believe that after this cycle, the reset will be completed, and we’ll be back to the general sentiment that crypto is a big scam and a Ponzi which is exactly what we need to have another brilliant run later in 2029.
Many wouldn’t want to hear this simply because they can’t afford to wait another four years. That’s their only problem and the main reason they refuse to change their bias.
Disgusting rejection for $BTC just now.
Not a great sign.
Not a great sign.
🎁✨✨🚨
The hardest part of bear trends is accepting that most moves up are just liquidity grabs or lower highs; not real trend changes.
It isn't easy because we’re conditioned to see every bounce as "the bottom."
So how do you actually tell when the trend might be changing?
You need acceptance above key levels.
To keep it simple:
I want to see candle closes above the H1 EMA200.
That’s where I start to shift bias.
Wicks above don’t matter.
If price can’t hold above that level, it’s just another bearish retest.
The same is true for bull trends after a bear trend (just reverse the logic)
$BTC $XRP $BNB
The hardest part of bear trends is accepting that most moves up are just liquidity grabs or lower highs; not real trend changes.
It isn't easy because we’re conditioned to see every bounce as "the bottom."
So how do you actually tell when the trend might be changing?
You need acceptance above key levels.
To keep it simple:
I want to see candle closes above the H1 EMA200.
That’s where I start to shift bias.
Wicks above don’t matter.
If price can’t hold above that level, it’s just another bearish retest.
The same is true for bull trends after a bear trend (just reverse the logic)
$BTC $XRP $BNB
နောက်ထပ်အကြောင်းအရာများကို စူးစမ်းလေ့လာရန် အကောင့်ဝင်ပါ