YProfit

Jak rozwinięte rynki poradziły sobie w 2025 roku?
Rynek amerykański, mierzony przez S&P 500, wzrósł o 16,4% w 2025 roku. Jednak w porównaniu do innych rozwiniętych rynków, był to stosunkowo skromny wzrost, ponieważ panował autentyczny szał na szerokim froncie: Europa – 16,7%, Japonia – 26,2%, Kanada – 28,2%, Tajwan – 25,7%, Korea – 92,6% (!), Australia – 6,2%, Singapur – 22,7%, a Izrael – 51% rocznego wzrostu.
Hossa i Wydajność za trzy lata
W dużym stopniu ta agresywna dynamika została ukształtowana przez opóźnioną wydajność (w porównaniu do rynku amerykańskiego) w latach 2023-2024. Hossa rozpoczęła się w styczniu 2023 roku, więc skumulowany wzrost rynków w lokalnej walucie przez trzy lata wyniósł: USA – 78,3%, Europa – 39,4%, Japonia – 92,9%, Kanada – 63,6%, Tajwan – 104,9%, Korea – 110,5%, Australia – 24%, Izrael – 102,1%, a Singapur – 42,9%.

💎 What Happened in the Precious Metals Market This Week? Gold, Silver, and Platinum hit all-time highs, while Palladium reached its highest level since December 2022.

Record-Breaking Weekly Gains:
•Silver 📈: +18.1% — its best week since February 1998.
•Platinum 🔥: +23.6% — its best week since January 1980.

Single-Day Performance:
•Silver ⚡ — best day since September 2008.
•Platinum & Palladium 🚀 — best day since March 2020.

For Silver and Platinum, yesterday set a historic record — the strongest performance ever during a price breakout.

Current silver price deviation from its monthly average is 24.3% — a level comparable only to August 2020 and December 1997, but back then prices were far from all-time highs.

The momentum across 22-, 60-, and 100-day moving averages is now the strongest in history for both Silver and Platinum. The only comparable period was 1979, but trading volumes were orders of magnitude smaller.

Year-to-Date Performance:
•Gold 🥇: +70.6% — the third-best annual performance in history, after 1979 (+138.1%) and 1973 (+71.7%).
•Silver 🥈: +168.7% — the second-best in history, after 1979 (+369%).
•Platinum ⚪: +165% — the best annual performance ever (previous record was +98.2% in 1970).
•Palladium 🔶: +111.2% — the fourth-best in history, after 1979 (+157%), 2000 (+116.8%), and 2009 (+113.2%).

This is one of the strongest rallies in the entire history of the precious metals market.

It’s quite amusing to read so-called “analysts” and “experts” attributing these record moves to: inflation expectations, anticipated Fed policy easing, a weaker dollar, loss of confidence in the dollar, high and rising government debt, geopolitical risk premiums, attempts to confiscate Russian reserves, investment demand, record central bank purchases, or a sudden supply shortage (as if there was no shortage in mid-2025, but now — poof — there is).

This stream of schizo-analysis (how can the same brain expect both soaring inflation and policy easing?) isn’t even worth dissecting — it has nothing to do with the real reasons. Let that kind of “analysis for the naive” remain for its specific audience.

I’ll only note that the only reliable indicator of trust in the dollar and the financial system is:
•The ability to refinance existing public debt and place new debt within budget needs.
•Placement terms (bid-to-cover ratio, demand structure — share of primary dealers, non-residents, etc.).
•Price and the yield curve (the spread between the mid/long end of the curve and the money market matters).

Currently, 10-year Treasuries are being placed with a spread of just 0.38 bps to the money market (historically tight), and auctions are hitting record demand. That’s all you need to know about “loss of confidence in the dollar, public debt, and inflation expectations.”

If confidence were really eroding, trillion-dollar placements would be impossible, demand structure would skew toward primary dealers and the Fed (monetization), and the mid-to-long end of the yield curve would soar 2–4 bps higher (well above 5% yields).

So what’s really driving precious metals higher?

Degradation of the financial elite — they once had the competence to curb rallies and sentiment around precious metals — combined with sheer stupidity in the investment community, fueled by extreme leverage and multiple layers of margin calls (short squeeze).

That’s the most concise, concentrated, and complete explanation for the precious metals pump possible. You could write several academic long-reads on this, but I can’t be bothered with such a trivial topic.

Those pumping precious metals now were pumping shitcoins in crypto exactly a year ago, and AI stocks earlier this year. They don’t care what they’re chasing — $DOGE or silver.

The cognitive depth of these pumpers is so “high” (typical Reddit community) that they can barely remember tickers. There’s no need to complicate things by attributing to them some foresight into the collapse of the financial system architecture — they don’t even know such words exist.

It’s much simpler: stupidity, greed, frenzy. 🤷‍♂️💥