YProfit

Historical data confirms: every US president whose approval rating was below 50% in the month before the midterm elections lost seats in the House of Representatives. The only question is the scale. There have been no exceptions since 1946.
The war in the Middle East began from a demonstrably weakened political position for Trump. By early March 2026, Trump's overall approval rating was 38% – the worst figure of his entire presidency. On Iran specifically, it was only 36%, which is unacceptably low for societal consolidation.
The last time someone approached midterms with a comparable rating was George W. Bush, and the resulting seat change in the House was a 30-seat gain for the Democrats.
The largest defeat in midterm election history was suffered by the Democratic Party under Obama (with fall ratings around 45%), losing 63 seats due to the severe consequences of the 2008-2009 economic crisis, which impacted the poor and the middle class. It was then that Obama led a popular, yet fake, campaign "against the fat cats – the banksters on Wall St."
Among Republicans, support for the military campaign in Iran is expressed by about 77% of voters, splitting into 85-90% within the MAGA sect and 54-56% among "non-MAGA" Republicans. Among Democrats, about 18% support the military campaign.
Only 27% of Republicans and a negligibly small percentage of Democrats favor a ground operation.
It's important to understand that the costs of the war haven't yet spread – there have been no major and/or sensitive US military losses, no transmission of the war's effects onto household financial balances (significant stock market drop, bond market destabilization, across-the-board price increases), and no macroeconomic consequences in the form of supply chain disruptions or energy crisis impacts on industry and the economy.
Everything happening so far exists exclusively in the media space – essentially, just as background noise. In other words, within the US, outside of the information environment, sensitivity and receptivity to the war in the Middle East is near zero – there are no consequences, no costs. But that's the case for now.
For the US, or rather for Trump and the Republican Party, the duration of the war, the damage to US armed forces, and the financial, economic, and geopolitical costs (military and energy pressure on partners in the Middle East, Iran, and Europe) will quite literally determine the survival of the MAGA sect.
A resounding defeat in the November midterm elections is extremely likely, which would bring Trump's legislative agenda to a halt. The Democrats, gaining a majority, would immediately gain control of the Rules Committee, without which no bill can be brought to a vote. This would turn Trump into a "lame duck" with no political weight, amid increasing fragmentation and polarization, even within the MAGA sect.
Right now, Trump, controlling Congress, has the ability to "go wild" with a relentless stream of legislative initiatives, but not after a midterm defeat.
The impeachment process begins in the House of Representatives with a simple majority vote (218), which Democrats could achieve as early as November. However, the second threshold in the Senate may NOT be reached, as a qualified majority of 67 votes is required.
In fact, no impeachment in US history has ever succeeded precisely because of the Senate. Neither Johnson (1868), nor Clinton (1999), nor Trump (2020, 2021) were convicted for this very reason.
Even with maximum success, Democrats could gain no more than 50–52 senators against the minimum required 67, so purely legally, impeachment is unlikely. However, media-wise, it will most likely be initiated in early 2027.
Nevertheless, Trump could become toxic within the Republican Party, as a series of failures might trigger a split within the party and a fight for survival.
The situation with Iran could provoke the strongest economic and energy crisis in history, which would deprive Republicans of any chance at power for the next 8 years.
Such a political and economic crisis would likely trigger a sharp risk-off move, initially crashing BTC and ETH alongside equities, though their subsequent trajectory would depend on whether the crisis leads to dollar debasement fears or simply a liquidity crunch.
To be continued…

What determines victory in any war?
There are many wars in the world now, so what is the deciding factor? A combination of factors.
• Resources - demographic, industrial, energy, financial, and general economic - determine the capacity for war and the ability to replenish losses.
• Logistics - combat potential is often exhausted not by military losses, but by disrupted or reduced supplies, with opponents often targeting logistical nodes and supply chains.
• Scalability - determines the ability to quickly convert military necessity and available financial, material, and technical resources into finished military products, and the speed of production ramp-up.
• Technology determines the qualitative superiority of weapons, mobility, protection, and camouflage across a wide range, from individual equipment to the most complex reconnaissance or precision-guided systems. In the history of world wars, the tide has often turned due to the emergence of an enemy's technological solutions that change the course of the war (especially notable in WWI and WWII).
• Command and Control Systems, considering the speed and quality of tactical and strategic decision-making, can often close technological gaps, resource deficits, and supply shortages. Adaptability and decentralized control can compensate for an opponent's numerical superiority.
• The Quality of the Military Machine - the level of combat training of personnel, the armed forces' ability for rapid self-learning, and improvisation under combat conditions.
• Intelligence (satellite, electronic, human, cyber intelligence) - a super-important factor; the value of this element was vividly demonstrated by the US and Israel with the precision elimination of high-ranking officials in Iran.
• Alliances ensure the diversification of the resource, technological, and logistical base, effectively channeling and amplifying firepower in priority directions, where each party does what it does best, enhancing the integrated military power.
• The Ability to Destroy Enemy Alliances, primarily through diplomatic and economic methods, but sometimes also through military means.
• Information Superiority - psychological operations, control of narratives and the ideological framework, destabilization of the socio-political situation in the enemy's rear, and consolidation of one's own society.
• Political Goal-Setting and Strategy Communication - a clear and achievable/realistic political goal defines the criteria for victory. If the initial political goals are unclear, internally contradictory, or incommensurate with the state's actual military capabilities, defeat becomes a matter of time.
• The Geostrategic Factor and Strategic Depth - the geography of the theater of military operations. This includes terrain, climatic conditions, the presence of natural obstacles, and the length of communication lines. Strategic depth is the availability of territorial space to absorb an enemy's offensive, retreat without a critical loss of system viability, and position military-industrial complex facilities outside the effective range of enemy weapons-something that allowed the USSR to withstand the initial blow.
• Systemic Flexibility - the ability of the national economy to undergo structural restructuring under conditions of stress and disruption, converting the economy to a war footing while balancing the interests of the civilian economy.
• Time and Asymmetry of Losses - achieving conditions where one's own total losses are less than the enemy's, adjusted for relative reproduction potential. The ability to synchronize military operations with mobilization and production cycles.
• And most importantly - the Will to Win. A key intangible factor that determines the tolerance threshold of the armed forces and civil society to losses, economic hardships, and psychological pressure. The exhaustion of the national will to resist leads to political capitulation even when material and technical resources are not yet exhausted.
Very often, many wars have been lost despite having resource, numerical, and technological superiority, but lacking the will to win.

Este uimitor cât de repede se schimbă sentimentul pieței și, odată cu el, toate aceste prostii media.
Unde sunt toate acele povești despre cererea în creștere pentru metale prețioase, lipsurile de aprovizionare, diferențele cu China, rezervele epuizate, inflația, datoria, devalorizarea dolarului, imensa surplus de numerar liber, căutarea unui refugiu sigur în mijlocul riscurilor geopolitice crescânde și instabilității globale și zeci de alte motive folosite pentru a justifica pomparea record în piața metalelor prețioase?
Cum s-a uitat totul într-o singură zi? Unde sunt toate acele previziuni că argintul ar ajunge la 150-200 până în vară? Hei, unde ați dispărut cu toții?

Cum au performat piețele dezvoltate în 2025?
Piața americană, măsurată prin S&P 500, a crescut cu 16,4% în 2025. Cu toate acestea, comparativ cu alte piețe dezvoltate, aceasta a fost o creștere relativ modestă, deoarece a existat o frenezie autentică pe un front larg: Europa – 16,7%, Japonia – 26,2%, Canada – 28,2%, Taiwan – 25,7%, Coreea – 92,6% (!), Australia – 6,2%, Singapore – 22,7%, și Israel – 51% creștere anuală.
Raliul de recuperare și performanța pe trei ani
În mare măsură, această dinamică agresivă a fost modelată de performanța întârziată (comparativ cu piața din SUA) în 2023-2024. Raliul a început în ianuarie 2023, astfel că creșterea cumulată a piețelor în moneda locală pe parcursul a trei ani a fost următoarea: SUA – 78,3%, Europa – 39,4%, Japonia – 92,9%, Canada – 63,6%, Taiwan – 104,9%, Coreea – 110,5%, Australia – 24%, Israel – 102,1%, și Singapore – 42,9%.

💎 Ce s-a întâmplat în piața metalelor prețioase săptămâna aceasta? Aurul, argintul și platina au atins niveluri record, în timp ce paladiul a atins cel mai înalt nivel din decembrie 2022.
Cresterea Record:
•Argint 📈: +18.1% — cea mai bună săptămână din februarie 1998.
•Platina 🔥: +23.6% — cea mai bună săptămână din ianuarie 1980.
Performanța pe o zi:
•Argint ⚡ — cea mai bună zi din septembrie 2008.
•Platina & Paladiul 🚀 — cea mai bună zi din martie 2020.
Pentru argint și platina, ieri s-a stabilit un record istoric — cea mai puternică performanță vreodată în timpul unei creșteri de preț.