btccycles

5.6 Core Discussion: Will the final dip to $45k-$50k come after $BTC ? MicroStrategy bought 3,273 BTC last week, while miners only produced 3,150 BTC in the same period. Is the slow bull market already in motion?

The total supply of Bitcoin is 21 million coins, with about 20.025 million already mined, leaving less than 975,000 coins. Miners produce about 450 BTC a day, totaling around 3,150 BTC a week. MicroStrategy has recently purchased 3,273 coins in the past week.

In October 2025, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,000, then retraced to around $60,000 in February this year. According to the past four-year cycle patterns, many cycle theorists believe that before the bull market kicks off, we need to see a 'final dip' — a drop down to around $45k or $50k to complete a thorough shakeout, setting the stage for a real breakout.

However, this time is different: previously, miners had high output with new coins continuously sold off, leading to a supply-demand imbalance. During peaks, miner sell pressure plus leveraged liquidations inevitably triggered significant corrections of 70-85%.

Now, post-halving, the output is extremely low, and there’s a serious shortage of new coins, with institutions aggressively accumulating. The total coins mined by all miners globally in a week are insufficient for MicroStrategy's purchases alone. A supply-demand imbalance is forming.

Will the final dip come?

Cycle theorists' perspective (A): Yes, it will. Historical patterns are hard to change; even though we've already dropped over 50% from the peak, it's not deep enough. We must revisit the $45k-$50k low to clear leverage and floating supply before a clean bull market can emerge. Otherwise, without a solid bottom, significant movements are unlikely.

Institutional accumulation perspective (B): It's highly probable that we won't see a deep dip again. Continuous ETF inflows and long-term holdings by institutions like MicroStrategy are reducing circulating supply. The bottom is gradually rising near $60k, significantly compressing the space for a crash. Bitcoin is transitioning from being 'miner-driven volatility' to 'institution-driven slow bull market,' with $80k potentially being a solid starting point for the new cycle.

Bai Qi's perspective: The shadow of the four-year cycle still lingers, but the script has been rewritten. The risk of a final dip hasn’t completely vanished (especially if the Fed doesn’t ease up, or if ETFs start flowing out), but both the depth and probability are significantly declining. The restructuring of supply and demand has made $60k a stronger support level than before.

What's your take?

Feel free to share your reasoning in the comments for a rational discussion. Follow me for ongoing tracking of Bitcoin's supply-demand changes and cycle evolution. 👍 #BTC #BTCcycles #最后一跌