#japão
japão
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#Japão A bubble.
Currently, the improvement in inflation and growth in Japan is mostly due to imported cost shocks and the post-pandemic recovery, rather than being driven by internal demand, with the economy showing signs of stagflation. With a significant rise in interest rates, debt pressure is making it less likely for the continued issuance of long-term bonds, and the Japanese government is already planning to scale back the issuance of ultra-long-term public bonds in the fiscal year 2026.
Right now, there's already an AI bubble, but it's not out of control yet. Support is coming from the transition of Agentic AI from assistive tool to autonomous execution tool, although valuations have already priced in growth expectations for 2027-2028. Amid geopolitical conflicts, AI is gaining strength against the trend, benefiting from a second surge in inference capability and significant profit contributions from major tech companies.
The renminbi exchange rate mainly influences export volumes, not value. With the share of renminbi settlements continuously increasing, the appreciation of the renminbi converts more dollars, widening the growth gap in exports measured in dollars versus renminbi. The appreciation of the renminbi also compresses foreign exchange gains for trading companies, but they can hedge against currency volatility risks.
Currently, the improvement in inflation and growth in Japan is mostly due to imported cost shocks and the post-pandemic recovery, rather than being driven by internal demand, with the economy showing signs of stagflation. With a significant rise in interest rates, debt pressure is making it less likely for the continued issuance of long-term bonds, and the Japanese government is already planning to scale back the issuance of ultra-long-term public bonds in the fiscal year 2026.
Right now, there's already an AI bubble, but it's not out of control yet. Support is coming from the transition of Agentic AI from assistive tool to autonomous execution tool, although valuations have already priced in growth expectations for 2027-2028. Amid geopolitical conflicts, AI is gaining strength against the trend, benefiting from a second surge in inference capability and significant profit contributions from major tech companies.
The renminbi exchange rate mainly influences export volumes, not value. With the share of renminbi settlements continuously increasing, the appreciation of the renminbi converts more dollars, widening the growth gap in exports measured in dollars versus renminbi. The appreciation of the renminbi also compresses foreign exchange gains for trading companies, but they can hedge against currency volatility risks.
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