I got into the crypto scene in 2021, dabbled in futures and learned the hard way, and now I’m a 30-year HODLer for BTC and BNB.
Today, Saturday at 5:08 PM, I opened the Binance app and saw the 1-hour changes in funding rates, and I was completely taken aback.
Just 1h 4min ago (4:04 PM), I had just written, "All 4 funding rates flipped negatively in 1h, the bearish whales all turned traitor." But one hour later (5:08 PM), the story was: BTC funding didn’t just stop at "flipping positive"; it exploded!!
BTC funding +0.00001118 vs +0.00000232 = +381.9%, the largest change among the 4 rates!! Just 1h 4min ago it was struggling to flip positive, and now it’s a massive long as the most aggressive bulls concentrated their leverage within that timeframe.
SOL funding +0.00000165 vs -0.00002268 = dramatic flip positive, second largest change among the 4 rates!! The last period saw bears retreating by -54.4%, and now it’s flipped positive, with leverage switching from "shorting SOL" to "going long on SOL".
BNB funding hit zero for the 8th hour in a row; "being overlooked = hitting zero" has been validated for the N+8th time, as the main players silently tell their story through continuous quiet.
ETH funding +0.00003573 vs +0.00003464 = +3.1%, almost unchanged, stuck at its highest level, the smallest change among the 4 rates, and the "full cycle of ETH funding adding up → hitting the highest level" has already completed in over 2h.
The most dramatic is the 24h price: all 4 rates showed dramatic divergence. BNB 24h -0.192%, the only one to flip negative (vs 4:04 PM +0.123%, dramatically flipping negative -0.315pp, the largest change). BTC +0.443% / ETH +0.073% / SOL +0.688% (the highest increase among the 4 rates) vs 4:04 PM, all narrowing down.
The critical contradiction has reached its N+6th extreme: BTC funding +382% but BTC’s 24h increase narrows = leverage blows up + spot market hesitates. SOL funding flips positive + SOL 24h +0.688%, the highest increase among the 4 rates = bears turn traitor + spot market is strong. BNB 8h at zero + BNB 24h flips negative = being overlooked + double whammy of being sold off.
FNG=13, extreme fear for N+12 consecutive days. Social Hype: BTC 2.10M (+0.8% slight rise) Positive / ETH 316K (-7.2% cooling off) Neutral.
New smart money in Solana over 24h: FATANAME +2664% / Pearl +1186% / GULAG +459% / UHI +57% = smart money is doing meme high volatility in Solana, is this a prelude to weekend shitcoin revival?
The mainline three bombs remain unchanged: ❶ Saylor clarifies reduction in holdings (the first crack in "never selling") ❷ Trump Insider $51.1M going long on BTC ❸ China acknowledges BTC as a legal property.
5 soul-searching questions:
❶ BTC funding +382%, the largest change among the 4 rates, but BTC’s 24h increase narrows = Is the main force really going long OR just a weekend fakeout?
❷ SOL funding flips positive + SOL 24h with the highest increase among the 4 rates = Is the main force really signaling direction OR is this a short squeeze precursor OR is it just a pump to unload?
❸ BNB 8h at zero + 24h -0.192%, the only one to flip negative = Is it being overlooked = zero OR abandoned by the main force?
❹ ETH funding stuck at the highest level + 24h narrowing = Is the funding stopping OR is there a short-term peak?
❺ FNG=13, extreme fear for N+12 days + all 4 funding rates move to extremes + all 4 spot markets diverge = Is this a buying window OR is it a trap before a deep dive?
DCA 72nd issue at 7:57 PM pending deduction, BTC markPrice $63,763, slight unrealized loss. The more extreme the market, the steadier the dollar-cost averaging.
#BTC定投 #DCA日记 #FundingRate