0xLige

A picture explains the journey of most stock investors from start to finish

That year, I also thought I was one in a million genius, wanting to carve out a place in this battlefield

Everyone says they are a genius, but here, geniuses are everywhere, playing against top global capital

You must act when there is meat in the wolf's mouth, and withdraw when drawing a knife in the official's court; only securing the bag is the most important

Welcome to Tonghuashun, log in

Before understanding River @Riverdotinc , first understand a number: Crypto total market value is $3.89 trillion, stablecoin market value is $270 billion, but DeFi TVL is only $150 billion—still at the level of 2022.

The huge asset scale contrasts sharply with the limited application depth, where does the problem lie? Liquidity has been completely fragmented by 400+ L2 chains.

The problem with traditional stablecoins is very clear:

Single-chain deployment, single collateral, unable to circulate across ecosystems. When giants like Unichain, Ethena, Robinhood, and OKX are entering the field to build chains and create moats, liquidity fragmentation will only intensify. What is River's solution? The world's first chain-abstract stablecoin system—not just another stablecoin, but a redefinition of the relationship between assets and opportunities.

What has River done right?

Omni-CDP mechanism + native cross-chain capability. Deployed on 9+ public chains (BNB Chain, Base, Ethereum), with a cumulative TVL of $300M, satUSD circulation of $150M, integrating over 30 scenarios including Pendle and Morpho.

More importantly, the strategic layout:

Sui officially announces strategic cooperation to bridge EVM and MOVE ecosystems, TRON DAO invests $8 million to promote Tron integration, Arthur Hayes' family office Maelstrom Fund strategically invests.

Arthur started calling at $19, and the price shot directly to $106, now it has pulled back to $56, giving everyone a chance to get on board!

——Last time he called up was ZEC and the privacy track, directly calling it to Wall Street FOMO. Alea Research analysis points out that if the price maintains, there is still over a 10x arbitrage space for River Pts airdrop conversion mechanism.

Coingecko search popularity ranks TOP3, with total network trading volume only behind BTC, ETH, SOL, already listed on Binance, OKX, Bybit, and there are expectations for listings in Korea!

Recently, the US stock market has been very popular, and everyone has been discussing the topic.
However, I believe that the yield of the US stock market this year is unlikely to outperform the previous two years, mainly because the midterm elections in the second half of the year are a big thunderstorm.
For the 'understanding king', if he fails in the midterm elections and loses even one of the two houses, he will basically enter garbage time for the next two years.
With his characteristic of not accepting defeat, he will never allow himself to fail in the midterm elections. In the short term, the Nasdaq has been trapped at the resistance level of 24000 for three months, and my view is consistent, that is, as long as it does not break through this resistance level, it is assumed that the Nasdaq is still adjusting, and a pullback of 10%+ is expected.
At the latest by September, the trend of the Nasdaq will be severely affected by the midterm elections, and as early as July-August, the Nasdaq may enter a consolidation period again.
At this time, considering that the capital market is averse to risk and uncertainty, I am extremely skeptical about whether the 'understanding king' will use administrative power to interfere with the election, leading to a constitutional crisis in the US in the second half of the year. Therefore, in any case, changing positions to gold after July is a wiser choice.
Of course, in the short term, I believe that gold will peak, as it has already risen for six consecutive months, and this month's increase has exceeded 10%, so there is a possibility of a small pullback. After that, the focus of the capital market will return to the US stock market. I estimate that gold will consolidate for three to four months until the US stock market's rise stagnates in July-August, after which capital will pay attention to gold again.
Theoretically, the results of the midterm elections will be finalized in November, but I am extremely skeptical that the 'understanding king' will not recognize the election results and will throw out excuses like 'election fraud'. Therefore, I don't think it will stabilize by the end of the year, which also makes it difficult for me to have a positive outlook on the year-end closing point. It is likely that the ATH will be in the second or third quarter, rather than in the fourth quarter.
Even from the overall annual perspective, it may show a year-on-year decline compared to last year. But in any case, I do not think that the Nasdaq will pull back more than 40%, at most it will be similar to the situation during the pandemic and interest rate hikes. After the Nasdaq pulls back and falls below 30%, the Federal Reserve will intervene, and the stock market will bottom out.

The Ethereum meme has been lukewarm for a long time, but recently a cat coin $NVF has caught attention, and its price is also quite good.

It positions itself as the on-chain meme king, proclaiming a million-fold goal, which sounds exaggerated, but such narratives always evoke memories of some crazy projects that doubled in the early days.

The most special aspect of the project is its linkage with the new Wow Planet NFT: holding a certain amount of $NVF allows you to receive an NFT for free.

This play of coin + NFT + identity indeed adds a layer of ritual to the community, like forming a family with thresholds in Web3, reminding me of 2021, an era full of explosive growth.

I see many KOLs participating in this project, and the buzz is quite good. I strolled through the TG group and Twitter, and the atmosphere is lively with everyone chatting enthusiastically.

More information:

Official TG: https://t.me/nvfabcd
Official Twitter: https://x.com/nvfyxx

CA:
0xb87C087D0f6FBe2F7223C5410291Cb82744102d4

The teacher is here, I want to improve so much.

Well-known strategist "abandoned" Bitcoin, reasoning that "concerns about quantum computing will soon be realized"

Christopher Wood, the global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, has completely removed Bitcoin from his investment portfolio, citing concerns that the rapid development of quantum computing could undermine this cryptocurrency.
On January 16, Christopher Wood stated in an analysis column that advancements in quantum computing would weaken the logic of Bitcoin as a "reliable store of value," especially for long-term investors such as pension funds.
He liquidated his 10% Bitcoin position in his portfolio model, reallocating 5% to physical gold and 5% to gold mining stocks.
He explained that the reason for this move was the fear that the advent of quantum computing would shake the foundations of Bitcoin, as this technology could achieve breakthroughs in the coming years rather than in over a decade.
Quantum computers theoretically could crack Bitcoin's encryption algorithms, reverse-engineering to derive the private keys used for authorizing transactions. Wood stated:
It would undermine the concept of Bitcoin as a store of value, thereby destroying its position as a digital alternative to gold.
Wood was an early institutional supporter of Bitcoin, incorporating it into his portfolio in December 2020 during the pandemic when countries released large-scale stimulus measures and concerns about the depreciation of the dollar intensified, increasing his holdings to 10% in 2021.
Shifting from cryptocurrencies to traditional safe-haven assets
In December last year, Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, stated on social media that Bitcoin developers "deny" the risks of quantum computing, a viewpoint that was countered by prominent Bitcoin advocates, including Blockstream's Adam Back.

Wood believes this debate highlights the issue itself. Some developers downplay the risks, while others in the industry believe that the developer community has failed to confront this threat, underscoring the uncertainty within the cryptocurrency community when addressing emerging technological challenges.
The Bitcoin network is based on cryptography to protect tokens and verify transactions. With current computer technology, cracking this cryptography is virtually impossible. However, quantum computers could change this situation, Wood wrote in his column:
The Bitcoin community is increasingly concerned that quantum computing may be achievable in just a few years rather than ten or more.

What opportunities in 2026 will feel regrettable like Bitcoin years later?

I have a few friends who achieved financial freedom through BTC, one started around 2015 or 2016 and laid back in 2019, and another started around 2017 and has held on until now. YQ's descendants have been in Japan for a long time; I met him recently, and he still insisted I put 💷 into cryptocurrency, saying it’s still early for BTC. Firm like wanting to enter D. Wealth is a reflection of cognitive level; I believe not many people could have held onto BTC after knowing about it for a year or so.
In the past two years, RWA has been heatedly discussed. If you want to engage in the 'secondary market,' the due diligence required is much higher than it was for BTC back then; you can't just buy with your eyes closed anymore, because some underlying assets may be LJ. As the issuer, the core requirement is to tokenize to zero so that more consumer investors can participate in the project with a small amount of money. As the investor, you first need to analyze whether the real-world assets are indeed real assets or resources, whether the assets are compliant and legal. Can they bring predictable and measurable income or do they not present income? Then they are still resources, not assets. Whether the data before going on-chain can achieve consensus after going on-chain, etc.
The window period for issuers is only in these two years; domestically, it will probably start to open up slowly after 2027. By that time, the coins that have gone on-chain are likely to have already surged. As an investor, in the past two years, it’s hard to distinguish the strengths and weaknesses of coins, but by the time you can see it clearly, a broad consensus will likely have been reached, and you might have also missed the lowest cost. Fortune favors the brave.

DCG has also encountered major problems; let's talk about why there have been so many crashes in the crypto space in 2022!

Recently, the cryptocurrency world has been tumultuous, with one wave of issues following another. First, the news of Genesis's bankruptcy shocked the entire industry, and then CoinList also revealed problems. Behind all of this points to a massive entity—DCG.

DCG, short for Digital Currency Group, is an undeniable presence in the cryptocurrency sector. It owns several important projects, including Genesis, Grayscale, and Coindesk, covering almost all aspects of the cryptocurrency industry. However, such a seemingly indestructible empire has recently faced consecutive setbacks, prompting one to exclaim: even giants can collapse overnight.

From Genesis halting user lending services to CoinList's withdrawal issues, and DCG facing enormous debts, this series of events has not only exposed the fragility of the cryptocurrency market but also revealed a harsh reality: behind this seemingly prosperous market lies significant inflation, where every link could become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.

Looking back at this year's market trends, from Luna's total collapse to Three Arrows Capital's bankruptcy, and then to FTX's downfall, each crisis has been like a ruthless baptism for the market. The issues facing DCG seem to be the final link in this storm. For those who once believed that investment institutions were relatively safe, this is undoubtedly a heavy blow.

In the face of such a market environment, I must admit that I do not have an optimistic view of the market prospects for the next one to two years. Especially for those friends still holding onto graphics cards, I suggest you carefully reconsider your investment strategies. After all, in this uncertain market, it is always wise to stay cautious.

The second-generation Solana phone has announced an airdrop. I haven't paid attention to it after I received it; I only have a low guarantee.

The token $SKR is confirmed to have its TGE on January 21, so don't forget to claim it.

Let's talk about the recently popular prediction market Polymarket. Can users really make money based on information asymmetry?

You've all heard of P station, right? Its popularity is about to surpass 365! Essentially, this thing is similar to a lottery, betting on the timing and probability of events occurring, but it claims to be a platform based on blockchain technology, so its valuation is quite good (9 billion USD), and its claim to fame is predicting the 2024 U.S. election!

Therefore, those who have worked at the Pentagon are surely familiar with it; this can be considered an essential path for 'insider policy makers and actors' to get rich! One of the trading centers for the 'Pizza Index' we often see is right here!

Currently, the hottest probability bet on P station is whether Khamenei will step down before January 31 and whether Israel will launch a surprise attack on Iran before January 31. Today, Trump has already stated that he may take severe action against the unrest in Iran!

1. What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, deployed on the Polygon blockchain. Its core function is to allow users to make 'betting-style trades' on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies (such as the USDC stablecoin), but it currently also supports cash and most credit cards.

2. Core Features and Business Model of P Station

P station primarily relies on blockchain technology to achieve anonymous transactions, without the need to bind a bank account with real names. Users worldwide can participate freely through cryptocurrencies, and the low transaction costs on the Polygon chain support high-frequency small transactions.

3. The Core Reasons for the Popularity of Polymarket

In my opinion, the first reason is that it has blockbuster cases, and accurate predictions have created a word-of-mouth effect. For example, in several events such as the 2020 U.S. election, the 2024 election, the change of UK Prime Minister, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Polymarket's prediction accuracy far exceeds traditional channels, allowing it to move from a niche platform in the crypto circle to mainstream visibility, becoming an 'information filter' for many investors.

4. Can users really make money based on information asymmetry?

In theory, the core of profitability in prediction markets is 'information asymmetry' (the deviation between individual cognition and market consensus), but in practice, it is extremely difficult for average users to make money based on information asymmetry, and the operability is very low.

Binance Wallet Upgrade: Cross-Chain Bridge is Here! #BinanceWallet #CrossChainBridge

With just a few simple steps, you can easily achieve cross-chain transfers of USDT and USDC, with faster and more worry-free arrival.

Whether you are a beginner or an experienced user, this feature allows your assets to flow as smoothly as silk.

X directly eliminate the API of post reward platforms, which can directly declare the end of InfoFi platforms like Kaito and Cookie

KOL's commercial advertising will gradually recover. I remember when KOL emerged, it dropped from a 400U group to a 40U group, or even lower

However, with the end of InfoFi, I think KOL will make a comeback, and the tutorial bloggers for earning rewards should also return.

How to invest in the cryptocurrency world to ensure stable income?

I entered the market with 50,000 to 100,000 and then to 302,000

In the third year, it reached 590,000

By August of the fourth year, it reached 3.78 million

In November, it reached over 7 million

Until a few years ago, I could easily withdraw 30 million from the cryptocurrency world

The harshest way to make money in the cryptocurrency world? Just one word: Roll!

A few points to note about rolling snowballs: sufficient patience, the profits from rolling snowballs are enormous, as long as you can successfully roll a few times, you can at least earn tens of millions or even billions, so you cannot roll easily; you have to find high-certainty, highly stable opportunities;
What is a highly stable opportunity? It’s when the price plummets, then starts to consolidate, and suddenly surges upward; at such times, the trend is likely to reverse, and you need to get on board quickly, don’t miss the good opportunity. 10%-100% version

① Only 10% of people in this market can make money because it is destined to be a zero-sum game;

② The money you can earn will only be generated during 20% of the bull market time; the rest of the time will eliminate those without investment logic or patience;

③ Always maintain a mindset to endure a 30%-50% drawdown to laugh until the end; otherwise, the process will be a torment for you;

④ 40% of the retail investors may end up finishing early; the pitfalls in this circle are more than you imagine;

⑤ At least 50% of people in this market will choose to play contracts, most will end up with nothing and lose everything; remember, contracts are gambling;

⑥ People playing spot trading in a bull market trend can earn 60% or more, but only those who can hold through the entire bull market cycle will be the final winners;

⑦ It is estimated that 70% of people continuously recharge without ever withdrawing money; the cryptocurrency world is much more cruel than you can imagine;

⑧ 80% of people will not be able to return to the past due to the wealth effect of this circle, similar to being addicted to drugs and harming themselves;

⑨ 90% of people will ultimately just be passersby in this market, but everyone thinks they are the chosen one;

In the end, 100% will reach 1 million USD; always believe in this. Just roll more;

Setting appropriate stop-loss and take-profit points is very important.

Rolling snowballs is a high-risk strategy; market volatility can lead to huge losses. When entering a trade, we should set a reasonable stop-loss point. Once the market trend goes against expectations, we should stop-loss in time to control losses;

2026 Crypto Trends

This article summarizes from Messari's 100,000-word annual report, combining AI and human insights to outline the following 10 trends for Crypto in 2026.

1. If L1 does not experience real growth, crypto funds will increasingly flow towards Bitcoin.

2. ETH is still Bitcoin's "younger brother" and not an independent leader. ETH has institutional and corporate support, can profit alongside Bitcoin, but cannot yet stand completely on its own.

3. The correlation of ZEC with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.24, serving as a privacy hedge against Bitcoin.

4. Application-specific currencies (such as Virtuals Protocol, Zora) will emerge as a trend in 2026.

Taking Virtuals Protocol as an example to introduce application-specific currencies: When users create AI agents, a dedicated token for the agent will be issued.
All agent tokens are paired with the platform token VIRTUAL (to buy agent tokens, VIRTUAL must be used, providing liquidity).
The hotter the platform and the more useful the AI agents, the greater the demand for VIRTUAL, making it the "dedicated currency" of this ecosystem.

5. Stablecoins: Transitioning from speculative tools to America's "currency weapon." The GENIUS Act (passed in 2025) introduces the first federal stablecoin regulations in the U.S., transforming stablecoins from crypto toys into tools of U.S. monetary policy.

6. Tether may continue to dominate the stablecoin market in developing countries, while developed countries' markets are snatched by large institutions. Tether's profits soar, with its valuation approaching $500 billion. Major players like JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citibank, PayPal, Visa, and Google are all entering the stablecoin space or building infrastructure.

7. Cloudflare and Google are creating stablecoins and payment protocols specifically for AI agent transactions, preparing for a future where AI spends automatically.

8. Interest rates will decline in 2026, and yield-generating stablecoins (such as lending interest spreads, arbitrage, GPU collateral loans) will explode (like Ethena's USDe).

9. Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) will see trillions of assets on-chain in the future. By 2025, the total scale of RWA will reach $18 billion, mainly consisting of government bonds and credit. DTCC (the U.S. securities clearing giant) has received SEC approval to tokenize U.S. securities. Most deployments are on Ethereum (64%), but institutions may use private chains.

10. Ethereum: The "settlement hub" for institutions and big money. Ethereum remains the most reliable "settlement layer."

Hardworking people will not have bad luck

When the tide goes out, we can see the future: When we talk about prices, we are actually talking about the future!

When the BTC price fell below 100,000, 90,000, and reached a low of 81,000 USD, you would often hear a voice nearby:

Brother, I told you long ago, the bear is here! It's a bear market, and you're still holding on?

Actually, at that moment, I just wanted to silently reply to him:

Brother, are you 10.11's big cleaning, bringing you back to before liberation!

The bull and bear have no relation to you anymore. When the market once again rises above 90,000 USD these past two days, he is saying again: By the end of the year, the market might break through 200,000 USD.

The position of 80,000 has already been confirmed as the bottom over the past 10 years, and I have seen various extreme emotions in the cryptocurrency circle for eight years. I am not numb, but gradually understanding:

It's not that everyone is unwilling to believe in the future, but when the bear market comes, people dare not believe in the future.

But the reality is exactly the opposite: When we discuss prices, we are never discussing the present, but rather the market's discounting of the future.

Prices are a compressed package of future expectations, not a snapshot of the present. If you only focus on the K-line, you will forever miss the true future.

You live in a world of anxiety every day! More importantly, in a bear market, most people see a decline;

While I see——layering, screening, and rearranging. Emotions recede, the tide goes out, the skeleton is exposed, and the trend is rewritten.

At the same time, I am also thinking, why are there more and more new projects, but truly meaningful things are becoming fewer and fewer?