主流量化

【Institutional Holding Epic Increase】

BlackRock quietly scooped up 2.8 million BNB, with a holding cost of $845!

- The latest 13F filing from BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, shows that the proportion of BNB in its cryptocurrency portfolio has surged to 23%, surpassing ETH to become the second-largest holding.
- On-chain data from Binance shows that over the past 72 hours, whale wallets have net purchased more than 120 million BNB, with holding costs concentrated in the $820-$850 range, setting a new high for the past 6 months.
- Citigroup analysts have urgently raised the target price to $1100: "BNB has become a core asset for institutional allocation in decentralized finance."

Key support and resistance levels

- Short-term support level: 830-820 USD (four-hour chart trend line + whale cost area)
- Mid-term support level: 790-780 USD (200-day moving average + historical dense trading area)
- Key resistance level: 890-900 USD (upper boundary of the daily level descending channel)

Technical signals

1. Daily level:
- MACD: Green bars are shortening, with double lines showing a golden cross signal, indicating a weakening bearish momentum.
- RSI: 47.55, in the neutral range, no overbought/oversold signals.
- Moving Average: The price fluctuates near the 50-day moving average (845 USD), while the 200-day moving average (800 USD) provides long-term support.

Key support and resistance levels

- Short-term support level: $2,985 (MVRV -0.5σ key zone)
- Strong support level: $2,830-$2,800 (four-hour chart trend line + whale accumulation cost area)
- Key resistance level: $3,200 (bearish flag upper bound on daily level)

Technical signals

1. Daily level: MACD death cross continues, the price is operating below the EMA15 trend line. If it breaks below the support at $2,985, it may drop to $2,800.
2. Four-hour chart: Bollinger Bands are narrowing, RSI oscillating around 45, short-term bullish and bearish are in a stalemate, need to wait for a directional breakthrough.
3. On-chain data: Net flow from exchanges is neutral, but whales are buying heavily around $2,985 (with a single trade of $16.95 million today), indicating strong short-term support.

Key support and resistance levels

- Short-term support level: $84,850 (daily Bollinger Bands lower limit)
- Key watershed: $88,000 (EMA15 trend line + key daily closing price)
- Short-term resistance level: $89,500 (top pressure on the four-hour chart)

Technical signals

1. Daily level: MACD golden cross formed, price oscillating near the EMA15 trend line; if it closes above $88,000, it may trigger a short-term rebound to $89,500.
2. Four-hour chart: Clear divergence between volume and price (price is range-bound but volume is shrinking), KDJ shows a bearish crossover at a high level and is flattening out, indicating a standoff between bulls and bears, with a direction choice imminent.

1. Institutional Capital: The "whale" power reshaping the market

In 2025, Wall Street finally pressed the "confirmation button" for cryptocurrency. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $3.5 billion in a single week, Goldman Sachs launched tokenized government bonds, and institutional funds surpassed retail investors for the first time, becoming the market's main force. This is not just a simple influx of capital, but a disruptive reconstruction of global capital allocation logic—Bitcoin has transformed from a "speculative toy" to "digital gold," while Ethereum has been included in institutional portfolios as a hedge against inflation.

Data corroborates: the annual trading volume of on-chain stablecoins has surpassed $46 trillion, and half of the total locked value in DeFi protocols is concentrated in leading platforms like Aave and Lido. The influx of institutional capital has compressed market volatility, but it has also deeply tied cryptocurrencies to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, creating a "liquidity sponge under a compliant guise."

$BTC
I. Core Direction and Trigger

- Main Tone: Oscillating with a bearish bias, strong resistance at 88,500-89,000 above, insufficient volume, rebound lackluster prioritizes short positions.
- Long Trigger (Right Side): 4-hour stabilizing above 88,450 + volume (greater than 2 times previous) + MA7 crossing above MA25 + MACD golden cross; a pullback to 87,000-87,500 stabilizing can try long.
- Short Trigger (Priority): 4-hour resistance at 88,800-89,000 with a bearish close + volume (greater than 1.8 times previous) + MA7 crossing below MA25 + MACD death cross; breaking below 87,000 can add short.
- Wait and See: 4-hour narrow fluctuation at 87,000-88,500, volume at 0.7 times previous + indicators tangled, no action.

II. Key Price Levels (Anchoring)

Victory Securities' market analysis report released on December 21, 2025, and current market characteristics, $BTC
1. Core Market Characteristics
Overall Situation: Gentle rise and accumulation
Bitcoin continues the oscillating upward trend from the previous week, showing a mild upward movement ("gentle rise"). The market is in a stage of quantitative accumulation, waiting for external factors (especially the wealth effect of global stock markets) to trigger a more significant trend.
Capital Flow: Institutions continue to flow in
Off-exchange ETFs perform strongly: Last week, the net inflow of Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $3.08 billion, and the net inflow of Ethereum ETFs was about $5 million, indicating that traditional capital is still making large-scale investments in core crypto assets.

$BTC In December 2025, the Bitcoin market showed a fluctuating downward trend, with prices gradually retreating from the rebound peak at the beginning of the month (around $92,000) to a weak range by the end of the month (around $85,000). Overall, the performance can be summarized as "macroeconomic benefits difficult to counter structural weakness". The market is influenced by multiple factors, including inflation data, Federal Reserve policy expectations, technical selling pressure, and liquidity issues. Key support is located around $85,000; if this level is lost, it may further test the year's low (around $74,400). The following is a comprehensive analysis based on authoritative sources (such as Coin Whale, Caixin, Bloomberg, etc.), combined with market patterns for expansion.