Bluechip
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(X: @wachngolo)
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I’ve been in crypto for more than 7 years...
Here’s 12 brutal mistakes I made (so you don’t have to))
Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience
Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing.
You’re not early.
You’re someone else's exit.
Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly
Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away.
No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.
Lesson 3: Stories beat tech
I used to back projects with amazing tech.
The market backed the ones with the best story.
The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.
Lesson 4: Liquidity is key
If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes.
It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless.
Liquidity = freedom.
Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon
Crypto messes with your emotions.
People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them.
If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.
Lesson 6: Take security seriously
- I’ve been SIM-swapped.
- I’ve been phished.
- I’ve lost wallets.
Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything
Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing.
Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump.
Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.
Lesson 8: Regulation is coming
Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard.
Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted.
Plan for the future — not just for hype.
Lesson 9: Communities are everything
A good dev team is great.
But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last.
I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.
Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long
By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late.
Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise.
There are no shortcuts.
Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made
The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention.
That’s when I made my best moves.
If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.
Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything
I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade.
No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house.
Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.
7 years.
Countless mistakes.
Hard lessons.
If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing.
Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
Lesson 1: Chasing pumps is a tax on impatience
Every time I rushed into a coin just because it was pumping, I ended up losing.
You’re not early.
You’re someone else's exit.
Lesson 2: Most coins die quietly
Most tokens don’t crash — they just slowly fade away.
No big news. Just less trading, fewer updates... until they’re worthless.
Lesson 3: Stories beat tech
I used to back projects with amazing tech.
The market backed the ones with the best story.
The best product doesn’t always win — the best narrative usually does.
Lesson 4: Liquidity is key
If you can't sell your token easily, it doesn’t matter how high it goes.
It might show a 10x gain, but if you can’t cash out, it’s worthless.
Liquidity = freedom.
Lesson 5: Most people quit too soon
Crypto messes with your emotions.
People buy the top, panic sell at the bottom, and then watch the market recover without them.
If you stick around, you give yourself a real chance to win.
Lesson 6: Take security seriously
- I’ve been SIM-swapped.
- I’ve been phished.
- I’ve lost wallets.
Lesson 7: Don’t trade everything
Sometimes, the best move is to do nothing.
Holding strong projects beats chasing every pump.
Traders make the exchanges rich. Patient holders build wealth.
Lesson 8: Regulation is coming
Governments move slow — but when they act, they hit hard.
Lots of “freedom tokens” I used to hold are now banned or delisted.
Plan for the future — not just for hype.
Lesson 9: Communities are everything
A good dev team is great.
But a passionate community? That’s what makes projects last.
I learned to never underestimate the power of memes and culture.
Lesson 10: 100x opportunities don’t last long
By the time everyone’s talking about a coin — it’s too late.
Big gains come from spotting things early, then holding through the noise.
There are no shortcuts.
Lesson 11: Bear markets are where winners are made
The best time to build and learn is when nobody else is paying attention.
That’s when I made my best moves.
If you're emotional, you’ll get used as someone else's exit.
Lesson 12: Don’t risk everything
I’ve seen people lose everything on one bad trade.
No matter how sure something seems — don’t bet the house.
Play the long game with money you can afford to wait on.
7 years.
Countless mistakes.
Hard lessons.
If even one of these helps you avoid a costly mistake, then it was worth sharing.
Follow for more real talk — no hype, just lessons.
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
📌 Follow @Bluechip for unfiltered crypto intelligence, feel free to bookmark & share.
PINNED
How Market Cap Works?
Many believe the market needs trillions to get the altseason.
But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump.
Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20?
Wrong!
Here's the secret
I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.
They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.
These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩
But first, let's clarify some concepts:
Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.
It is determined by two components:
➜ Asset's price
➜ Its supply
Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.
Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.
How most people think, even those with years of market experience:
● Example:
$STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap.
"To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."
This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.
Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.
Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.
For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.
Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool.
We have:
- Price: $1
- Market Cap: $1B
- Liquidity in pair: $100M
➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.
The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions.
Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread.
Memcoin creators often use this strategy.
Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.
This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.
You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.
Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
Follow me @Bluechip for more.
Like/Share if you can
#BluechipInsights
But $SOL , $ONDO, $WIF , $MKR or any of your low-cap gems don't need new tons of millions to pump.
Think a $10 coin at $10M market cap needs another $10M to hit $20?
Wrong!
Here's the secret
I often hear from major traders that the growth of certain altcoins is impossible due to their high market cap.
They often say, "It takes $N billion for the price to grow N times" about large assets like Solana.
These opinions are incorrect, and I'll explain why ⇩
But first, let's clarify some concepts:
Market capitalization is a metric used to estimate the total market value of a cryptocurrency asset.
It is determined by two components:
➜ Asset's price
➜ Its supply
Price is the point where the demand and supply curves intersect.
Therefore, it is determined by both demand and supply.
How most people think, even those with years of market experience:
● Example:
$STRK at $1 with a 1B Supply = $1B Market Cap.
"To double the price, you would need $1B in investments."
This seems like a simple logic puzzle, but reality introduces a crucial factor: liquidity.
Liquidity in cryptocurrencies refers to the ability to quickly exchange a cryptocurrency at its current market price without a significant loss in value.
Those involved in memecoins often encounter this issue: a large market cap but zero liquidity.
For trading tokens on exchanges, sufficient liquidity is essential. You can't sell more tokens than the available liquidity permits.
Imagine our $STRK for $1 is listed only on 1inch, with $100M available liquidity in the $STRK - $USDC pool.
We have:
- Price: $1
- Market Cap: $1B
- Liquidity in pair: $100M
➜ Based on the price definition, buying $50M worth of $STRK will inevitably double the token price, without needing to inject $1B.
The market cap will be set at $2 billion, with only $50 million in infusions.
Big players understand these mechanisms and use them in their manipulations, as I explained in my recent thread.
Memcoin creators often use this strategy.
Typically, most memcoins are listed on one or two decentralized exchanges with limited liquidity pools.
This setup allows for significant price manipulation, creating a FOMO among investors.
You don't always need multi-billion dollar investments to change the market cap or increase a token's price.
Limited liquidity combined with high demand can drive prices up due to basic economic principles. Keep this in mind during your research.
I hope you've found this article helpful.
Follow me @Bluechip for more.
Like/Share if you can
#BluechipInsights
$BTC
CME Closed at 84.2K. You already know 98% of these get filled within 2 weeks.
However, I only target them when structure is solid and it’s Monday. If this turns into a 2–3K gap, it may take some time to fill, as larger gaps generally take longer.
CME Closed at 84.2K. You already know 98% of these get filled within 2 weeks.
However, I only target them when structure is solid and it’s Monday. If this turns into a 2–3K gap, it may take some time to fill, as larger gaps generally take longer.
Most traders don’t lose because they lack indicators.
They lose because they don’t know what environment they’re trading in.
If you can’t identify the regime, nothing else matters.
Green = longs only
Blue = ranging, slight long lean.
Orange = ranging, short lean
Red = short only.
Suddenly, you’re not fighting the market anymore, you’re following it.
Simplicity works. The problem is traders keep adding noise until the edge disappears.
Always ask: “Did this make my system sharper… or just more complicated?”
Because once your daily bias is this clean, your only job is to execute on lower timeframes inside the regime.
That’s it. That’s the game.
Most people want complexity because it feels smart. But markets reward the trader who follows a simple plan with ruthless consistency.
2026 for me is about helping people see what’s been in front of them the whole time:
Get the regime right and the rest becomes probability, not chaos. Your job isn’t to predict, it’s to align.
$BTC
They lose because they don’t know what environment they’re trading in.
If you can’t identify the regime, nothing else matters.
Green = longs only
Blue = ranging, slight long lean.
Orange = ranging, short lean
Red = short only.
Suddenly, you’re not fighting the market anymore, you’re following it.
Simplicity works. The problem is traders keep adding noise until the edge disappears.
Always ask: “Did this make my system sharper… or just more complicated?”
Because once your daily bias is this clean, your only job is to execute on lower timeframes inside the regime.
That’s it. That’s the game.
Most people want complexity because it feels smart. But markets reward the trader who follows a simple plan with ruthless consistency.
2026 for me is about helping people see what’s been in front of them the whole time:
Get the regime right and the rest becomes probability, not chaos. Your job isn’t to predict, it’s to align.
$BTC
Thursday, January 29, 2026, will go down in market history.
In less than 4 hours, nearly $5 trillion vanished more than France’s GDP.
Starting at 2:30 PM, a massive wave of selling hit risky assets: first Tesla and Nvidia, then indices (S&P 500, CAC 40).
By 4 PM, safe-havens fell too: silver, Bitcoin… everything. When everything drops together, it’s no longer a simple correction it’s a liquidity crunch.
The main issue? Synchronized selling.
When assets meant to protect portfolios fall with the rest, it signals one thing: investors aren’t selling what they want, they’re selling what they can.
Leverage is the trigger.
A -5% move on a highly leveraged asset sparks immediate margin calls, liquidating positions indiscriminately. Portfolios exposed to futures, cryptos, or derivatives take the hit. Algos then sell the most liquid assets silver, Bitcoin everything gets hit.
This is not a banking crisis. Only $6 million was drawn from the Fed’s Discount Window. The numbers are clear: the forced seller is a market participant, likely a hedge fund or over-leveraged family office. Names like Citadel and Millennium are already circulating.
A purge like this doesn’t stop at the first wave; imbalances from leverage can take 24–72 hours to fully unfold. Broker reports over the next 48 hours will be critical.
Reminder: liquidity can vanish instantly, leverage amplifies everything, and markets don’t forgive.
Once the purge ends and leverage is cleaned out, fundamentals always reassert themselves… but those who get wiped out never recover.
$PAXG
In less than 4 hours, nearly $5 trillion vanished more than France’s GDP.
Starting at 2:30 PM, a massive wave of selling hit risky assets: first Tesla and Nvidia, then indices (S&P 500, CAC 40).
By 4 PM, safe-havens fell too: silver, Bitcoin… everything. When everything drops together, it’s no longer a simple correction it’s a liquidity crunch.
The main issue? Synchronized selling.
When assets meant to protect portfolios fall with the rest, it signals one thing: investors aren’t selling what they want, they’re selling what they can.
Leverage is the trigger.
A -5% move on a highly leveraged asset sparks immediate margin calls, liquidating positions indiscriminately. Portfolios exposed to futures, cryptos, or derivatives take the hit. Algos then sell the most liquid assets silver, Bitcoin everything gets hit.
This is not a banking crisis. Only $6 million was drawn from the Fed’s Discount Window. The numbers are clear: the forced seller is a market participant, likely a hedge fund or over-leveraged family office. Names like Citadel and Millennium are already circulating.
A purge like this doesn’t stop at the first wave; imbalances from leverage can take 24–72 hours to fully unfold. Broker reports over the next 48 hours will be critical.
Reminder: liquidity can vanish instantly, leverage amplifies everything, and markets don’t forgive.
Once the purge ends and leverage is cleaned out, fundamentals always reassert themselves… but those who get wiped out never recover.
$PAXG
Your "all-world" ETF holds 3,794 stocks.
Here's what the factsheet actually says:
62.22% is one country.
21.29% is seven companies.
The bottom 2,500 holdings contribute less to your returns than a 2% move in NVIDIA.
But here's what nobody's telling you:
On August 24, 2015, VTI traded at $0.13.
Previous close: $108.
The arbitrage mechanism that keeps ETF prices aligned with holdings failed. Authorized participants withdrew.
Stop-losses executed at cents on the dollar. 85% of circuit breaker halts that day were ETFs, not stocks.
The products designed to provide liquidity experienced more halts than the underlying securities.
Now look at January 2026 positioning:
BofA Bull & Bear: 9.4 (hyper-bull, sell signal triggered) Fund manager cash: 3.2% (all-time record low in 30 years)
Zero hedges: 48% of managers
Everyone owns the same seven stocks through different labels.
Everyone will try to exit through the same door.
The door is narrower than they think.
NVIDIA reports February 25.
The label says all-world.
The structure delivers all-US-tech.
The question is whether you audit your concentration before the market audits it for you.
$PAXG
Here's what the factsheet actually says:
62.22% is one country.
21.29% is seven companies.
The bottom 2,500 holdings contribute less to your returns than a 2% move in NVIDIA.
But here's what nobody's telling you:
On August 24, 2015, VTI traded at $0.13.
Previous close: $108.
The arbitrage mechanism that keeps ETF prices aligned with holdings failed. Authorized participants withdrew.
Stop-losses executed at cents on the dollar. 85% of circuit breaker halts that day were ETFs, not stocks.
The products designed to provide liquidity experienced more halts than the underlying securities.
Now look at January 2026 positioning:
BofA Bull & Bear: 9.4 (hyper-bull, sell signal triggered) Fund manager cash: 3.2% (all-time record low in 30 years)
Zero hedges: 48% of managers
Everyone owns the same seven stocks through different labels.
Everyone will try to exit through the same door.
The door is narrower than they think.
NVIDIA reports February 25.
The label says all-world.
The structure delivers all-US-tech.
The question is whether you audit your concentration before the market audits it for you.
$PAXG
The Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill by a vote of 71–29 and It now heads to the House for a final vote.
A partial government shutdown started at midnight on January 31, 2026, after funding ran out.
The House won’t vote until Monday, February 2, so there will be a short lapse over the weekend. Leaders expect quick passage with retroactive funding,
No major disruptions are expected.
A partial government shutdown started at midnight on January 31, 2026, after funding ran out.
The House won’t vote until Monday, February 2, so there will be a short lapse over the weekend. Leaders expect quick passage with retroactive funding,
No major disruptions are expected.
JUST IN:
🇺🇸 The US Senate has just passed the bill to avoid a US government shutdown.
Bullish news for all markets
🇺🇸 The US Senate has just passed the bill to avoid a US government shutdown.
Bullish news for all markets
This is absolutely insane:
Silver fell as much as -35% during intraday trade today, it's largest intraday drawdown in history.
Yet, silver prices still closed the month GREEN, rising +19%.
This means silver has now risen for 9-STRAIGHT months.
History is an understatement.
Silver fell as much as -35% during intraday trade today, it's largest intraday drawdown in history.
Yet, silver prices still closed the month GREEN, rising +19%.
This means silver has now risen for 9-STRAIGHT months.
History is an understatement.
Gold fell more than 5% today…
But the wrong question is: Should we buy or sell?
The right question is:
Which phase of the cycle are we in?
Let’s step away for a moment from the daily noise and look at the picture most traders are not talking about:
the 10-year real yield.
What do the data actually say?
If we look back historically, we notice a very important fact:
Gold does not move like an asset that grows smoothly.
It is not like stocks that quietly compound returns.
Instead, it moves in the form of:
long periods of stagnationfollowed by short, powerful price explosionsthen calm again
In other words:
most of gold’s gains come in very limited periods tied to structural changes in the economy.
The key factor: real yields
History is very clear here:
▪ When real yields decline or become unstable → gold thrives
▪ When real yields rise steadily → gold struggles
The reason is simple:
gold does not generate yield,
so the higher real bond yields go, the less attractive holding gold becomes.
What has happened recently?
Since around 2023:
real yields have started to declinegeopolitical risks have increasedconfidence in monetary policy has weakened
The result?
A strong upside move in gold.
Therefore, the recent drop does not necessarily mean the end of the move…
It may simply be normal volatility within a larger cycle.
The takeaway many ignore:
gold does not move because of newsnor because of breaking headlinesbut because of deep shifts in real yields and liquidity
Those who chase the daily candle lose.
Those who watch the economic cycle understand what is happening.
Final conclusion:
Do not judge gold by a single day or week
Look at the bigger trend
Watch real yields
And leave the noise to others
Data matters more than narratives.
$PAXG
The right question is:
Which phase of the cycle are we in?
Let’s step away for a moment from the daily noise and look at the picture most traders are not talking about:
the 10-year real yield.
What do the data actually say?
If we look back historically, we notice a very important fact:
Gold does not move like an asset that grows smoothly.
It is not like stocks that quietly compound returns.
Instead, it moves in the form of:
long periods of stagnationfollowed by short, powerful price explosionsthen calm again
In other words:
most of gold’s gains come in very limited periods tied to structural changes in the economy.
The key factor: real yields
History is very clear here:
▪ When real yields decline or become unstable → gold thrives
▪ When real yields rise steadily → gold struggles
The reason is simple:
gold does not generate yield,
so the higher real bond yields go, the less attractive holding gold becomes.
What has happened recently?
Since around 2023:
real yields have started to declinegeopolitical risks have increasedconfidence in monetary policy has weakened
The result?
A strong upside move in gold.
Therefore, the recent drop does not necessarily mean the end of the move…
It may simply be normal volatility within a larger cycle.
The takeaway many ignore:
gold does not move because of newsnor because of breaking headlinesbut because of deep shifts in real yields and liquidity
Those who chase the daily candle lose.
Those who watch the economic cycle understand what is happening.
Final conclusion:
Do not judge gold by a single day or week
Look at the bigger trend
Watch real yields
And leave the noise to others
Data matters more than narratives.
$PAXG
We didn’t reject 15% off 95K just to front run the 80K lows by 1%.
Algos are holding $BTC above 80K to liquidate bottom shorters as gold and silver take a dive. Some short term rotation, but structure stays broken and trending down.
Everyone is observing 80K for a sweep, it’s coming. But first, brace for annoying chop and whipsaw moves to frustrate everyone.
Algos are holding $BTC above 80K to liquidate bottom shorters as gold and silver take a dive. Some short term rotation, but structure stays broken and trending down.
Everyone is observing 80K for a sweep, it’s coming. But first, brace for annoying chop and whipsaw moves to frustrate everyone.
$BTC
This isn’t luck, it’s experience.
Lows all being swept as expected.
This isn’t luck, it’s experience.
Lows all being swept as expected.
Bluechip
·
--
$BTC
I can’t look at these lows and conclude that this is "the bottom."
In almost 7 years of trading, I’ve never seen a significant bottom form with this many naked lows.
Either im going to be a complete dumbass in 3 months or a genius.
I can’t look at these lows and conclude that this is "the bottom."
In almost 7 years of trading, I’ve never seen a significant bottom form with this many naked lows.
Either im going to be a complete dumbass in 3 months or a genius.
Kevin Warsh becoming a key catalyst behind the recent market sell-off
The move started as odds surged that he could become
Next Fed Chair, reviving fears linked to his policy stance.
Former Fed(2006-2011),Warsh has long criticized post-2008 monetary policy, arguing QE inflated asset prices, worsened inequality,and mainly benefited financial markets calling it “reverse Robin Hood” policy.He also views post-2020 inflation as a policy mistake
While he supports rate cuts, he favors balance sheet reduction, not renewed QE
Markets pricing a dangerous mix: lower rates without expanding liquidity
The move started as odds surged that he could become
Next Fed Chair, reviving fears linked to his policy stance.
Former Fed(2006-2011),Warsh has long criticized post-2008 monetary policy, arguing QE inflated asset prices, worsened inequality,and mainly benefited financial markets calling it “reverse Robin Hood” policy.He also views post-2020 inflation as a policy mistake
While he supports rate cuts, he favors balance sheet reduction, not renewed QE
Markets pricing a dangerous mix: lower rates without expanding liquidity
If Bitcoin rises before the U.S. session closes about two hours before and breaks above 84,500, we avoid negative closes and a black swan scenario for altcoins.
If the opposite happens, and we see the start of a violent drop with a break below 80,000, then the black swan will likely occur over the weekend or next week.
Two hours left before we enter the final two hours of the U.S. session
$BTC
If the opposite happens, and we see the start of a violent drop with a break below 80,000, then the black swan will likely occur over the weekend or next week.
Two hours left before we enter the final two hours of the U.S. session
$BTC
$BTC
Context is key.
The trend is bearish and liquidity sits below.
Give it time, those who think they’re safe below range lows will get liquidated.
External range hunts are EXACTLY where 💸 is for the bigger players.
Context is key.
The trend is bearish and liquidity sits below.
Give it time, those who think they’re safe below range lows will get liquidated.
External range hunts are EXACTLY where 💸 is for the bigger players.
🚨 THE U.S. GOVERNMENT WILL SHUT DOWN IN 12 HOURS
You need to understand the risk we’re walking into at midnight.
When 80% of the government shuts down, the agencies that calculate the numbers we trade on are shut down too.
This is a data blackout.
Here’s what disappears:
– The Jobs Report (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed.
– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): The data collectors for the Consumer Price Index stop working. This means we won't know if inflation is going up or down.
– GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically halts operations, meaning no GDP updates and no PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).
– CFTC Reports: The "Commitment of Traders" (CoT) report, which tells us how the big money is positioned, stops coming out.
– The SEC halts mostly everything except emergency enforcement.
– IPO & M&A Stalled: New IPOs and merger reviews get put on hold. If you’re waiting for a deal approval, good luck.
– Historically, shutdowns shave about 0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.
The longer this lasts, the more the "uncertainty discount" gets priced into stocks.
I’ll be monitoring the market to see what happens during this blackout.
$BTC
You need to understand the risk we’re walking into at midnight.
When 80% of the government shuts down, the agencies that calculate the numbers we trade on are shut down too.
This is a data blackout.
Here’s what disappears:
– The Jobs Report (NFP): The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is part of the shutdown. If this drags on, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report gets delayed.
– Inflation Data (CPI/PPI): The data collectors for the Consumer Price Index stop working. This means we won't know if inflation is going up or down.
– GDP & PCE: The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) typically halts operations, meaning no GDP updates and no PCE (the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge).
– CFTC Reports: The "Commitment of Traders" (CoT) report, which tells us how the big money is positioned, stops coming out.
– The SEC halts mostly everything except emergency enforcement.
– IPO & M&A Stalled: New IPOs and merger reviews get put on hold. If you’re waiting for a deal approval, good luck.
– Historically, shutdowns shave about 0.1% to 0.2% off GDP growth for every week they last.
The longer this lasts, the more the "uncertainty discount" gets priced into stocks.
I’ll be monitoring the market to see what happens during this blackout.
$BTC
$BTC
We saw a successful 7.65% drop from my pivot on the 28th. Aside from a minor pivot on February 1st, another key pivot is approaching, the notorious 14th.
Will keep you posted of plans regarding future pivots.
We saw a successful 7.65% drop from my pivot on the 28th. Aside from a minor pivot on February 1st, another key pivot is approaching, the notorious 14th.
Will keep you posted of plans regarding future pivots.
Bluechip
·
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Bearish$BTC
-6% nuke since pivot.✔️
BlueChip followers truly printing.💸
-6% nuke since pivot.✔️
BlueChip followers truly printing.💸
Gold crashed 12%.
Bitcoin crashed to $81,000.
Both on the same headline: "Warsh is hawkish."
Both wrong for the same reason.
Here's what nobody's connecting:
Warsh himself said Bitcoin "might serve as a sustainable store of value, like gold."
He was an early investor in crypto startups.
He's not anti-Bitcoin. He's anti-Bitcoin-as-currency.
But Bitcoin-as-store-of-value? He explicitly endorsed it.
Sound familiar?
That's the SAME thesis driving gold.
Not yield. Not currency. Store of value in a world where property rights are revocable.
The market sold both assets on "hawkish Fed = tight money = risk-off."
Level 1 thinking.
Level 2:
Warsh CAN'T be Volcker.
$38.43 trillion in debt.
$3 billion per day in interest.
5% real rates would add $2 trillion to annual interest expense.
The entire discretionary budget is $1.7 trillion.
He inherits fiscal dominance. He said so himself.
And his actual policy preference?
Balance sheet reduction + rate cuts.
That combination WEAKENS the dollar.
A weak dollar is bullish for BOTH gold AND Bitcoin.
Today the market priced Warsh's reputation.
Tomorrow it prices Warsh's constraints.
Gold and Bitcoin crashed together.
They'll recover together.
Same thesis. Same trade. Same misunderstanding.
Those who sold on the headline will buy back higher.
Bitcoin crashed to $81,000.
Both on the same headline: "Warsh is hawkish."
Both wrong for the same reason.
Here's what nobody's connecting:
Warsh himself said Bitcoin "might serve as a sustainable store of value, like gold."
He was an early investor in crypto startups.
He's not anti-Bitcoin. He's anti-Bitcoin-as-currency.
But Bitcoin-as-store-of-value? He explicitly endorsed it.
Sound familiar?
That's the SAME thesis driving gold.
Not yield. Not currency. Store of value in a world where property rights are revocable.
The market sold both assets on "hawkish Fed = tight money = risk-off."
Level 1 thinking.
Level 2:
Warsh CAN'T be Volcker.
$38.43 trillion in debt.
$3 billion per day in interest.
5% real rates would add $2 trillion to annual interest expense.
The entire discretionary budget is $1.7 trillion.
He inherits fiscal dominance. He said so himself.
And his actual policy preference?
Balance sheet reduction + rate cuts.
That combination WEAKENS the dollar.
A weak dollar is bullish for BOTH gold AND Bitcoin.
Today the market priced Warsh's reputation.
Tomorrow it prices Warsh's constraints.
Gold and Bitcoin crashed together.
They'll recover together.
Same thesis. Same trade. Same misunderstanding.
Those who sold on the headline will buy back higher.
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