Carlo 37

Key TakeawaysBitcoin price consolidation near $91K with mixed technical signalsMacro uncertainty builds ahead of the Federal Reserve meetingTraders monitor $92,387 30-day SMA and $89K support for directionBitcoin Rebounds As ETF Inflows ReturnBitcoin hovered near $91,000 after recovering from a dip toward the mid-$80,000s earlier in the week. The latest catalyst was a surge in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand. Funds recorded $54.79M in inflows on December 5, reversing significant prior outflows and signaling improving institutional confidence.ARK Invest’s ARKB led with $88M in inflows, even as other issuers saw rotation. The return of ETF engagement added support to short-term bullish momentum, helping BTC reclaim key averages.Spot exchange activity, however, continued to cool, contributing to a narrow trading range near the $90K–$92K zone. Technical Picture Shows Mixed MomentumThe technical indicators reveal a mix of strength and caution.Source: TradingViewEMA (10): 90,481 and SMA (10): 90,454 – both supportive of short-term stabilitySMA (20): 89,370 – remains a firm nearby floorSMA (30): 92,387 – immediate resistance and a key marker for broader trend improvementLonger-term averages such as the SMA (100): 106,506 and SMA (200): 109,093 continue to lean defensiveOscillators show balanced conditions: RSI at 46, Stochastic at 62, and Momentum at 224 indicating mild upward interest. The MACD level at −2,051, though still negative, aligns with recent signs of stabilizing market structure. Macro Landscape: Rate Cut Expectations In FocusMarket attention has tightened around the December Federal Reserve meeting, to begin tomorrow. Traders priced a very high probability of a 0.25% rate cut, fueling expectations of increased dollar liquidity.A softer policy stance could strengthen the digital asset narrative, though Bitcoin’s −11.43% 30-day performance reflects lingering uncertainty.Prediction platforms show a split among traders: some expect year-end prices near $80K, others eye $95K, while a smaller group targets $100K sometime before 2026. This reflects low-confidence positioning ahead of major macro announcements. Analyst Insights Shape Forward LevelsVeteran analyst Peter Brandt highlighted a broadening formation, suggesting potential rotation rather than a breakout. He monitors $80,200 as a crucial support, with a deeper marker near $58,800 if broader selling pressure re-emerges.Other analysts focus on $89,000 as a stability zone. Reclaiming and holding above that level has remained important for maintaining constructive market sentiment. A move through the 30-day SMA at 92,387 would mark a stronger shift in trajectory. Market Outlook: What to Watch Amid FOMC CatalystBitcoin’s near-term path likely comes down to:Whether ETF inflows remain steadyHow the FOMC frames 2025 policyWhether BTC can break above $92,387 or risks a slump back toward $89K