Cointelegraph

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have fallen to their lowest monthly sales volume this year, with digital collectibles declining by over 66% in market capitalization from their January highs. 

CryptoSlam data shows that NFT sales declined to $320 million in November, roughly half of the $629 million recorded in October. The drop pulled the monthly volumes back to levels not seen since September 2024, when digital collectible sales hit $312 million. 

The data also shows that between Dec. 1 and 7, NFTs generated $62 million in sales, marking the weakest weekly total of 2025. The slow start to December suggests that the downturn may persist through the month as NFT momentum slows. 

The downward trend comes amid a broader decline in NFT valuations. According to CoinGecko, the sector’s overall market cap is at $3.1 billion, down 66% from its high of $9.2 billion in January. 

NFT market cap in 2025. Source: CoinGecko

Blue chips slide, but Infinex Patrons and Autoglyphs buck trend

CoinGecko data showed that most of the top NFT collections mirrored the broader market decline, with CryptoPunks, the largest by market cap, falling 12% in the last 30 days. 

Bored Ape Yacht Club slipped 8.5%, while Pudgy Penguins dropped 10.6% in the same time frame, continuing a pullback across the most dominant NFT assets. 

The downturn did not spare art-driven blue-chip collections. Chromie Squiggle slid 5.6%, Fidenza fell 14.6%, Moonbirds dropped 17.9% and the Mutant Ape Yacht Club was down 13.4% in the last month. 

The biggest decline came from Hypurr, which shed 48%, making it the largest decline among the top 10 NFT collections. 

Meanwhile, two major collections posted gains in the last 30 days, bucking the downward trend. Infinex Patrons, currently the second-largest NFT collection by market cap, posted gains of 14.9%, while Autoglyphs outperformed the entire top 10 leaderboard with a 20.9% surge in the last 30 days. 

NFT collections 30-day heat map. Source: CoinGecko

Related: Meta shares climb on report of possible 30% metaverse budget cut

NFT winter deepens as 2025 concludes

The latest decline comes amid a turbulent quarter for the NFTs market. As Cointelegraph previously reported, NFTs recorded a sharp drop in valuation from October to November.

Digital collections dropped from $6.6 billion to $3.5 billion even as sales slightly climbed. This represented a 46% drop in just 30 days. 

The weakness was followed by a rebound. On Nov. 11, NFT market cap briefly recovered from $3.5 billion to $3.9 billion, reflecting renewed appetite alongside a memecoin rally.

However, the recovery was short-lived. CoinGecko data showed that the NFT market cap is at $3.1 billion, down 53% from October. 

Magazine: Digital art will ‘age like fine wine’: Inside Flamingo DAO’s 9-figure NFT collection

Bitcoin (BTC) retail investors are setting new records as “structural decline” sets in this bull market.

Key points:

Bitcoin entities holding up to 1 BTC are sending less per day to Binance than ever before.

A tale of “structural decline” comes in the era of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Whale positioning hints at a new BTC price bottom.

”Shrimp” Binance BTC inflows set all-time lows

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows BTC inflows to largest crypto exchange Binance collapsing in 2025.

Bitcoin retail investors — entities holding up to 1 BTC ($90,000) — have largely withdrawn from the trading scene.

According to CryptoQuant, even compared to the 2022 bear market, the activity of these “shrimp” investors is a fraction of what it was.

“The activity of shrimps, meaning small Bitcoin holders (<1 BTC), has dropped to one of the lowest levels ever recorded,” contributor Darkfost confirmed in a QuickTake blog post on Monday.

Bitcoin shrimp inflows (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

In December 2022, daily inflows from shrimps to Binance alone totaled around 2,675 BTC ($242 million) per day, as measured using a 30-day simple moving average (SMA).

“Today, those inflows have collapsed to just 411 BTC, marking one of the lowest levels ever observed,” Darkfost continued. 

“It’s not a simple pullback, it’s a structural decline.”

Bitcoin whales vs. retail delta (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Retail’s seeming lack of interest has characterized recent Bitcoin history, even as prices reach unprecedented new heights. 

Meanwhile, during the drawdown over the past two months, one indicator comparing retail investors to whales has remained bullish.

Whale versus retail delta, which contrasts long positioning across both cohorts, is teasing a BTC price bottom signal.

“Whale vs. Retail Delta shows that, for the first time in Bitcoin’s history, whales are this heavily positioned in longs compared to retail traders,” Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, told X followers in late November. 

“Whenever these levels got this high in the past, we saw local bottoms forming — but also large positions getting liquidated.”

Bitcoin ETFs “clearly contribute” to retail shifts

CryptoQuant, meanwhile, explained the retail downtrend within the context of the emergence of more suitable Bitcoin investment vehicles, namely the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

“ETFs have provided a frictionless way to gain exposure to Bitcoin without dealing with private keys, wallet security, exchange accounts or the risk of mismanaging custody,” Darkfost wrote. 

“Of course, ETFs are not the only explanation, but they clearly contribute to a profound change in how retail participates in the market.”

As Cointelegraph reported, November was a testing time for the ETFs, with the largest, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), seeing net outflows of $2.3 billion.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Funds that track a basket of cryptocurrencies are likely to rocket in popularity next year as investors look to get easy exposure to a broader range of digital assets, according to Bitwise’s investment chief Matt Hougan.

“Crypto index funds are going to be a big deal in 2026,” Hougan said in a note on Monday. “The market is getting more complex and the use cases are multiplying.”

He added that while the overall crypto market is poised to grow, it isn’t possible to predict which tokens will perform, so owning a fund that tracks the market is a “great place to start,” although it’s “not right for everyone.”

Many exchange-traded fund issuers, including Bitwise, offer funds that track multiple cryptocurrencies, drawing inspiration from indexes such as the S&P 500, which track the top 500 companies on US stock exchanges. 

Multi-crypto ETFs already exist, with some going live in the US earlier this year that hold crypto in proportion to each token’s market capitalization. However, these have seen relatively modest inflows as they largely hold Bitcoin (BTC), which currently dominates nearly 60% of the market, per CoinGecko.

“Buy the market” as crypto is unknowable

Hougan said that despite his experience and network of experts within crypto, he can’t say “with confidence which chain will win, or precisely how things will turn out.”

“At this stage of crypto’s development, I’d argue it’s unknowable,” he added. “Outcomes will be shaped by regulation, execution, macro conditions, the actions of a few key individuals, luck, and a hundred other variables.”

“Forecasting all of that correctly would require supernatural foresight.”

Crypto markets rallied from November 2024 to January through Donald Trump’s presidential election and inauguration and have remained elevated on his pro-crypto policies.

However, crypto has felt the negative effects of sweeping US tariffs and uncertainty over further interest rates cuts as traditional finance becomes more involved in the market.

“Given that uncertainty, my approach is simple: I buy the market,” Hougan said. “Specifically, I buy a market-cap-weighted crypto index fund.”

He added that crypto “will be far more important in 10 years than it is today,” and the market could grow up to 20 times over that time.

Hougan pointed to Securities and Exchange Commission chair Paul Atkins’ comment on Wednesday that the US financial system could embrace tokenization in a “couple of years.”

The US equity market is a ~$68 trillion market. We currently have ~$670 million in tokenized stocks. https://t.co/IgyJ20oiar

— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) December 8, 2025

“Stablecoins will matter more. Tokenization will matter more. Bitcoin will matter more. And I think a dozen other major use cases will follow: prediction markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), privacy tech, digital identity,” Hougan said.

“I don’t want to risk picking the wrong chain,” he added. “Imagine correctly calling a market that goes up 100,000x—and still underperforming because you backed the wrong horse.”

“So I use a crypto index fund as the core of my portfolio,” Hougan said, “knowing that, however crypto evolves, I’ll own exposure to the potential winners.”

Magazine: Solana vs Ethereum ETFs, Facebook’s influence on Bitwise — Hunter Horsley

There are at least 400,000 fewer Bitcoin on exchanges compared to the same time last year, in a positive sign for the market, according to the market intelligence platform Santiment. 

Over 403,000 Bitcoin (BTC) have moved off exchanges since Dec. 7, 2024, representing roughly 2% of the total supply, Santiment said in an X post on Monday, citing data from its sanbase dashboard.

Users often move their Bitcoin away from exchanges into cold storage wallets, which, in theory, makes it harder to sell and could signal long-term plans to hold. 

“In general, this is a positive long-term sign. The less coins exist on exchanges, the less likely we’ve historically seen a major sell-off that causes downside pressure for an asset’s price.” 

“As Bitcoin's market value hovers around $90K, crypto’s top market cap continues to see its supply moving away from exchanges,” Santiment added.

A year ago, there were around 1.8 million Bitcoin on exchanges. Source: Santiment

Bitcoin is also shifting into ETFs

While much of the Bitcoin on exchanges is likely headed back to hodler wallets, Giannis Andreou, the founder and CEO of crypto miner Bitmern Mining, said that exchange-traded funds (ETF) could also be absorbing these coins. 

Citing data from BitcoinTresuries.Net, Andreou said ETFs and public companies now hold more Bitcoin than all exchanges combined, after years of outflows and ETFs quietly accumulating in the background.

Related: Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury swells past 660,000 BTC after fresh $962M buy

“Institutional ownership has quietly crossed into a new phase: less liquid supply, more long-term holders, stronger price reflexivity, a market driven by regulated vehicles, not trading platforms,” Andreou said. 

“This shift is bigger than people think. Bitcoin isn’t moving to exchanges anymore. It’s moving off them straight into institutions that don’t sell easily. The supply squeeze is building in real time.”

ETFs and private companies hold more Bitcoin than exchanges 

Crypto data analytics platform CoinGlass shows the same trend, with Bitcoin held on exchanges sitting at around 2.11 million as of Nov. 22, when Bitcoin was suffering through a correction and trading hands for around $84,600.

Bitcoin held on exchanges has been steadily falling over the last year. Source: CoinGlass

BitBo lists ETFs as holding over 1.5 million Bitcoin and public companies with over one million, representing nearly 11% of the total supply combined. 

Magazine: Koreans ‘pump’ alts after Upbit hack, China BTC mining surge: Asia Express

Stablecoin giant Tether has announced it is one of the backers of an $81 million funding round for an Italian artificial intelligence startup aiming to build advanced humanoid robots. 

The 70 million euro funding round for startup Generative Bionics was led by the AI fund of CDP Venture Capital, with participation from Tether, AMD Ventures, Duferco, Eni Next and RoboIT.

In an announcement on Monday, Tether said it provided capital to support the development of advanced humanoid robots, “built for industrial scale performance” and “human-centric interaction.” 

“Tether’s investment will support the development of Physical AI systems and edge AI solutions, and accelerate the industrial validation of the company’s humanoid platform, the development of its first production facility, and its integration in the broader robotics ecosystem,” Tether said. 

Generative Bionics is an AI startup and research spinoff from the Italian Institute of Technology. Its focus is on building humanoid robots with “real-world physical AI capabilities” such as industrial usability in factory production lines. 

“Tether’s support for Generative Bionics builds on its broader strategy to back emerging technologies that expand human potential while reducing reliance on centralized systems overseen by Big Tech,” Tether said.  

Source: Tether

Related: Tether's USDt awarded key regulatory status in Abu Dhabi

According to Tether, the firm focuses on five areas of investment. These include: finance, power, data, education and evolution, with AI investments such as these falling under the category of evolution.  

With a healthy balance sheet in 2025, the firm has made a series of investments across multiple sectors. In terms of AI, it was reported in mid-November that the firm was considering a hefty $1.15 billion investment in German AI robotics startup Neura.   

In the announcement, Tether also highlighted some other AI plays it has supported.  

“This includes investments in brain-computer interfaces via Blackrock Neurotech and recent AI initiatives such as Tether’s collaboration with Northern Data and Rumble to deploy a 20,000-GPU global compute network for open, privacy-preserving AI development,” Tether said. 

Magazine: Opinion: Stablecoins will see explosive growth in 2025 as world embraces asset class

Some of the reported trading activity and volume of prediction market platform Polymarket may be significantly higher than actual reality due to a “data bug,” according to a researcher at Paradigm.

“It turns out almost every major dashboard has been double-counting Polymarket volume not related to wash trading,” said Storm, a researcher at the venture capital firm.

Storm explained that this was because “Polymarket’s onchain data contains redundant representations of each trade.”

“Polymarket’s onchain data is quite complex, and this has led to widespread adoption of flawed accounting methods.” 

When trades occur on Polymarket, the system emits multiple “OrderFilled” events: one set for makers, who have existing orders, and another for takers, who execute the trade. 

These events describe the same trade from different perspectives, not separate trades. However, many major dashboards have been combining them, counting the same volume twice.

Polymarket has been seen as a rare crypto success recently, as spot and derivatives markets have been in turmoil. The discovery that its headline metric may be incorrect across many dashboards could dent some of its perceived success. 

Polymarket’s complex blockchain data 

The researcher went on to explain that the accounting bug “inflates both types of volume metrics commonly used for prediction markets, notional volume and cashflow volume.” 

“Polymarket’s data has been notoriously confusing for crypto data analysts … the data has too many layers of interacting complexity to untangle using just a block explorer.”

Related: Polymarket plans to use in-house market maker to trade against users: Report 

This complexity arises because Polymarket trades can be simple swaps or they can be “splits” and “merges” where both parties exchange cash for opposing positions. 

The smart contracts emit redundant events for tracking purposes, and standard blockchain explorers don’t make this distinction clear, the researcher stated. 

Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment, but did not receive an immediate response. 

Polymarket volumes using different metrics. Source: Paradigm 

Polymarket is valued at $9 billion

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) valued the prediction platform at $9 billion this week, according to reports, citing $25 billion in trading volume, which could now be in question.

In September, it was reported that Polymarket was preparing for a US launch at a $10 billion valuation. In October, Bloomberg reported that it was looking to raise funds at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion. 

Meanwhile, Dune Analytics reported that the platform achieved a monthly record of $3.7 billion in trading volume in November, but this may be double the actual figure if Paradigm’s research is correct.

“DefiLlama, Allium, Blockworks and many Dune dashboards were double-counting,” said the researcher. 

Prediction markets are rapidly evolving into a critical financial sector, “and as the category matures, the industry should converge on consistent, transparent, and objective reporting standards,” the researcher concluded. 

Magazine: XRP’s ‘now or never’ moment, Kalshi taps Solana: Hodler’s Digest

Crypto companies seeking a US federal bank charter should be treated no differently than other financial institutions, says Jonathan Gould, the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

Gould told a blockchain conference on Monday that some new charter applicants in the digital or fintech spaces could be seen as offering novel activities for a national trust bank, but noted “custody and safekeeping services have been happening electronically for decades.”

“There is simply no justification for considering digital assets differently,” he added. “Additionally, it is important that we do not confine banks, including current national trust banks, to the technologies or businesses of the past.”

The OCC regulates national banks and has previously seen crypto companies as a risk to the banking system. Only two crypto banks are OCC-licensed: Anchorage Digital, which has held a charter since 2021, and Erebor, which got a preliminary banking charter in October.

Crypto “should have” a way to supervision

Gould said that the banking system has the “capacity to evolve from the telegraph to the blockchain.”

He added that the OCC had received 14 applications to start a new bank so far this year, “including some from entities engaged in novel or digital asset activities,” which was nearly equal to the number of similar applications that the OCC received over the last four years.

Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould giving remarks at the 2025 Blockchain Association Policy Summit. Source: YouTube

“Chartering helps ensure that the banking system continues to keep pace with the evolution of finance and supports our modern economy,” he added. “That is why entities that engage in activities involving digital assets and other novel technologies should have a pathway to become federally supervised banks.”

Gould brushes off banks’ concerns

Gould noted that banks and financial trade groups had raised concerns about crypto companies getting banking charters and the OCC’s ability to oversee them.

“Such concerns risk reversing innovations that would better serve bank customers and support local economies,” he said. “The OCC has also had years of experience supervising a crypto-native national trust bank.”

Gould said the regulator was “hearing from existing national banks, on a near daily basis, about their own initiatives for exciting and innovative products and services.”

“All of this reinforces my confidence in the OCC’s ability to effectively supervise new entrants as well as new activities of existing banks in a fair and even-handed manner,” he added.

Legal Panel: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight 

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued updated guidance for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets, paving the way for a pilot program to test how cryptocurrencies can be used as collateral in derivatives markets.

Collateral in derivatives markets serves as a security deposit, acting as a guarantee to ensure that a trader can cover any potential losses. 

The digital asset pilot, announced by CFTC acting chairman Caroline Pham on Monday, will allow futures commission merchants (FCM) — a company that facilitates futures trades for clients — to accept Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and Circle’s stablecoin USDC (USDC) for margin collateral.

The CFTC pilot is another step toward integrating crypto into regulated markets, and Circle CEO Heath Tarbert said it will also protect customers, reduce settlement frictions because tokenized collateral moves instantly onchain, and assist with risk reduction. 

Pham said in a statement that the pilot program also “establishes clear guardrails to protect customer assets and provides enhanced CFTC monitoring and reporting.”

As part of the pilot, participating FCMs will be subject to strict reporting criteria, which require weekly reports on total customer holdings and any significant issues that may affect the use of crypto as collateral. 

Source: Caroline Pham

Updated CFTC guidance for tokenized assets

The CFTC’s Market Participants Division, Division of Market Oversight, and Division of Clearing and Risk also issued updated guidance on the use of tokenized assets as collateral in the trading of futures and swaps.

The guidance covers tokenized real-world assets, including US Treasury’s money market funds, and topics such as eligible tokenized assets, legal enforceability, segregation, and control arrangements.

Pham said in an X post on Monday that the “guidance provides regulatory clarity and opens the door for more digital assets to be added as collateral by exchanges and brokers, in addition to US Treasurys and money market funds.”

The Market Participants Division also issued a “no-action position” on specific requirements regarding the use of payment stablecoins as customer margin collateral and the holding of certain proprietary payment stablecoins in segregated customer accounts.

A CFTC Staff Advisory that restricted FCMs’ ability to accept crypto as customer collateral, Staff Advisory 20-34, was also withdrawn because it is “outdated and no longer relevant,” in part due to the GENIUS Act.

Crypto execs back CFTC move

Several crypto executives applauded the move by the CFTC.

Katherine Kirkpatrick Bos, the general counsel at blockchain company StarkWare, said the use of “tokenized collateral in the derivatives markets is MASSIVE.”

Related: US regulators dismiss SEC-CFTC merger rumors, move to dispel crypto ‘FUD’

“Atomic settlement, transparency, automation, capital efficiency, savings. Feels abrupt but who recalls the tokenization summit in 2/24, a glimmer of hope in the darkness,” she said.

Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal also supported the action, calling Staff Advisory 20-34 a “concrete ceiling on innovation.”

“It relied on outdated info, went well beyond the bounds of regulation and frustrated the goals of the PWG.”

Source: Paul Grewal 

Meanwhile, Salman Banaei, the general counsel at layer-1 blockchain, the Plume Network, said it was a “major move” by the CFTC, and another push toward wider adoption.

“This is a step toward the use of onchain infra to automate settlement for the biggest asset class in the world: OTC derivatives, swaps,” he added.

Magazine: XRP’s ‘now or never’ moment, Kalshi taps Solana: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 30 – Dec. 6

International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has warned that it may reassess US banks with “significant” cryptocurrency exposure negatively. 

In a report posted on Sunday, Fitch Ratings argued that while crypto integrations can boost fees, yields and efficiency, they also pose “reputational, liquidity, operational and compliance” risks for banks. 

“Stablecoin issuance, deposit tokenization and blockchain technology use give banks opportunities to improve customer service. They also let banks leverage blockchain speed and efficiency in areas such as payments and smart contracts,” Fitch said, adding: 

“However, we may negatively re-assess the business models or risk profiles of U.S. banks with concentrated digital asset exposures.”

Fitch stated that while regulatory advancements in the US are paving the way for a safer cryptocurrency industry, banks still face several challenges when dealing with cryptocurrencies. 

“However, banks would need to adequately address challenges around the volatility of cryptocurrency values, the pseudonymity of digital asset owners, and the protection of digital assets from loss or theft to adequately realize the earnings and franchise benefits,” said Fitch. 

Bitcoin and Ether volatility vs S&P 500. Source: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings is one of the “Big Three” credit rating agencies in the US alongside Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings. 

The ratings from these firms — which can be controversial — carry significant weight in the financial world and impact how businesses are perceived or invested in from an economic viability perspective. 

As such, Fitch’s downgrading the ratings of a bank with significant crypto exposure could result in lower investor confidence, higher borrowing costs and challenges to growth. 

The report highlighted that several major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, are involved in the crypto sector. 

Fitch highlights systemic stablecoin risks 

Fitch argued that another risk could come from the explosive growth of the stablecoin market, especially if it becomes large enough to influence other areas and institutions. 

“Financial system risks could also increase if adoption of stablecoins expands, particularly if it reaches a level sufficient to influence the Treasury market.” 

Related: Crypto, TradFi sentiment improves: Will Bitcoin traders clear shorts above $93K?

Moody’s also recently highlighted potential systemic risks of stablecoins in a report from late September, arguing that widespread adoption of stablecoins in the US could ultimately threaten the legitimacy of US dollar.

“High penetration of USD-linked stablecoins in particular can weaken monetary transmission, especially where pricing and settlement increasingly occur outside the domestic currency,” Moody’s said. 

“This creates cryptoization pressures analogous to unofficial dollarization, but with greater opacity and less regulatory visibility,” it added.  

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice

Key takeaways:

Economic uncertainty, a delayed jobs report and weakness in the housing market are causing traders to retreat from Bitcoin.

Pro traders are incurring high costs to protect against Bitcoin price drops, while in China, stablecoins are being sold at a discount to exit the crypto market.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced a $2,650 pullback after failing to break above $92,250 on Monday. The move followed a reversal in the US stock market amid uncertainty over job market conditions and growing unease about stretched valuations in artificial intelligence investments. 

Traders now wait for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday, but the odds of a quick recovery to $100,000 depend on risk perception.

Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin monthly futures premium relative to spot prices (basis rate) has remained below the neutral 5% threshold for the past two weeks. The weak demand for bullish leverage mirrors Bitcoin’s 28% decline since its October all-time high. Still, worries about global economic growth have also influenced sentiment.

Official US government data on employment and inflation has been delayed due to the 43-day funding shutdown that ended in November, resulting in reduced visibility into economic conditions. As a result, the consensus around a 0.25% interest rate cut in December has not been enough to spark optimism, especially after a private job report showed 71,321 layoffs in November.

Additional pressure came from the US real estate market after Redfin data showed that 15% of home purchase agreements were cancelled in October, citing high housing costs and rising economic uncertainty. Moreover, CNBC reported that delistings rose 38% from October 2024, while the median list price in November slipped 0.4% from a year earlier.

Bitcoin underperformed the stock market, signaling risk-aversion

Bitcoin’s drop to $90,000 accelerated after the forceful liquidation of $92 million in bullish leveraged BTC futures. The weak macroeconomic outlook may have pressured Bitcoin traders’ sentiment, yet the S&P 500 index stood just 1.2% below its 6,920 all-time high.

Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: laevitas.ch

Whales and market makers are demanding a 13% premium to sell Bitcoin put options on Deribit. The inflated cost of downside protection is typical of bearish markets. Still, the rejection at $92,000 on Monday did not affect traders’ positioning, reinforcing the $90,000 support level.

Traders have also been retreating from the cryptocurrency market in China as stablecoins have traded below parity against the local currency. This risk-off signal supports a short-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin, but it does not necessarily imply that traders expect prices to fall to $85,000 or lower.

Tether (USDT/CNY) vs. US dollar/CNY. Source: OKX

Under neutral conditions, USDT should trade at a 0.2% to 1% premium versus the official USD rate to offset cross-border frictions, regulatory hurdles, and related fees. A discount relative to the official rate indicates strong demand to exit cryptocurrency markets, a pattern often seen during bearish phases.

The lack of inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the past couple of weeks has also weighed on demand for bullish exposure. Whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the near term will depend largely on improved visibility in the US job market and real estate conditions, which may take longer to develop than a single Fed decision.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin price repeatedly revisited the $90,000 range as retail investor sentiment improved, fund managers restated their bullish expectations for a potential end-of-year rally, and Strategy announced a sizable BTC purchase. 

According to VanEck head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel, Bernstein wrote that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern (cycle peaking every 4 years) and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” 

Bernstein’s comments follow BlackRock chair and CEO Larry Fink mentioning that sovereign wealth funds are “incrementally” buying Bitcoin as it “has fallen from its $126,000 peak.” 

Fink said, 

“I know they bought more in the 80s. And they’re establishing a longer position. And you own it over years. This is not a trade. You won if for a purpose, but the market is skewed, it is heavily leveraged and that’s why you’re going to have more volatility.” 

Mirroring Fink’s and Bernstein’s view, on Monday Strategy announced a fresh 10,624 ($962.7 million) purchase of Bitcoin at an average $90,615 per coin. Bitwise European head of research Andre Dragosch noted that Strategy’s purchase “was the biggest amount since July 2025.”

Strategy makes is biggest BTC purchase since July. X / Andre Dragosch

While Bitcoin’s recovery from its Nov. 21 low of $80,612 has followed the improvement in investor sentiment, the price is still capped in the $90,000 to $93,000 range. On Saturday, chartered market technician Aksel Kibar said, 

“This is part of the choppy price action where BTC/USD is possibly trying to find a bottom. Technical support is lower between $73.7K and $76.5K. It took few months in March-May period to form that short-term double bottom.” 

Related: Did BTC's Santa rally start at $89K? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Cumulative volume data from Hyblock provides a more nuanced view, highlighting rising participation from investors in the 0 to 100 BTC trade cohort, which some analysts label as retail. Larger trade-size cohorts in the 1,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1 million (cumulative volume delta) appear to be selling on rallies in the $90,000 to $93,000 price range. 

BTC/USDT Binance, cumulative volume deltas. Source: Hyblock

Similarly, order book data for BTC/USDT (perpetual contracts at Binance) shows a wall of asks starting at $90,000 and thickening from $94,000 to $95,000. 

BTC/USDT (Binance), orderbook asks at 5%-10% depth. Source: TRDR.io

Liquidation heatmap data, on the other hand, shows short liquidity at $94,000 to $95,300, which could serve as fuel for bulls to attempt a run on $100,000 if the market provides sufficient catalyst to induce an uptick in either spot or futures buying. 

 BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, 1-month lookback. Source: Hyblock

  

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Michael Saylor, CEO of the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury holder, is pushing nation-states to develop Bitcoin-backed digital banking systems that offer high-yield, low-volatility accounts capable of attracting trillions of dollars in deposits.

Speaking at the Bitcoin MENA event in Abu Dhabi, Saylor said countries could use overcollateralized Bitcoin (BTC) reserves and tokenized credit instruments to create regulated digital bank accounts that offer higher yields than traditional deposits. 

Saylor noted that bank deposits in Japan, Europe and Switzerland offer little to no yield, while euro money-market funds pay roughly 150 basis points, and US money-market rates are closer to 400 basis points. He said this explains why investors turn to the corporate bond market, which “wouldn’t exist if people weren’t so disgusted with their bank account.”

Source: The Bitcoin Therapist

Saylor outlined a structure in which digital credit instruments comprise roughly 80% of a fund, paired with 20% in fiat currency and a 10% reserve buffer on top to reduce volatility. If such a product were offered through a regulated bank, depositors could send billions of dollars to institutions for higher returns on deposits.

The account would be backed by digital credit with 5:1 overcollateralization held by a treasury entity, he said

According to Saylor, a country offering such accounts could attract “$20 trillion or $50 trillion” in capital flows. The CEO argued that a nation adopting this model could become “the digital banking capital of the world.”

The remarks followed Saylor’s revelation on X that the company purchased 10,624 BTC for about $962.7 million last week. The latest buy raises Strategy’s holdings to 660,624 BTC, acquired for roughly $49.35 billion at an average cost of $74,696.

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

STRK tests the viability of Bitcoin-backed debt products

Saylor’s description of a high-yield, low-volatility digital bank product echoes elements of Strategy’s own offerings. The company introduced in July STRC, a money-market-style preferred share with a variable dividend rate of around 10% and a structure designed to maintain its price near par while being backed by Strategy’s Bitcoin-linked treasury operations.

Although the product has already grown to around $2.9 billion in market cap, it has also been met with some skepticism.

Source: Daniel Muvdi

Bitcoin’s volatility is one reason some observers question Saylor’s push for Bitcoin-backed, high-yield credit instruments. Bitcoin has delivered strong long-term returns, but its short-term performance remains difficult to predict.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $90,700, about 28% below its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080 and roughly 9% lower over the past 12 months, according to CoinGecko. Over a five-year horizon, however, BTC has climbed 1,155% from $7,193 on Jan. 1, 2020.

In October, Josh Man, a former Salomon Brothers bond and derivatives trader, called Saylor’s moves “folly” and suggested STRC could suffer a liquidity event. He wrote:

“The fiat banking system has been around a long time and has figured out how to build a moat around demand deposits so that they don't break the buck. Hiking rates on STRC to maintain/defend a peg or price level is not going to work when depositors want to get their money back out.”

Source: Josh Man

Magazine: 6 reasons Jack Dorsey is definitely Satoshi… and 5 reasons he’s not

AI infrastructure provider CoreWeave (CRWV) plans to raise $2 billion through a private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031, with proceeds earmarked for general corporate purposes and for capped-call transactions that could reduce potential future shareholder dilution.

The notes include an option for purchasers to buy an additional $300 million, the company said Monday. They can be settled in cash, shares or a combination of both at CoreWeave’s discretion.

To limit dilution if the notes are ultimately converted into equity, CoreWeave is entering into capped-call transactions. This hedge increases the effective conversion price and provides a degree of protection for existing shareholders while preserving financial flexibility.

CoreWeave was founded in 2017 as Atlantic Crypto, a company that used GPUs to mine Ether (ETH). As the crypto market weakened, it pivoted in 2019 into cloud and high-performance computing services, eventually refocusing its GPU infrastructure on AI workloads.

The company now operates a network of data centers built specifically for AI, and as of this year, reported running more than 33 facilities. It has not said whether proceeds from its latest fundraising will go toward further expanding that footprint.

CoreWeave stock reacted negatively to the private note offering, falling as much as 9.2% on Monday. Source: Yahoo Finance

CoreWeave’s failed takeover bid of Core Scientific 

Despite shifting its focus away from digital asset mining as its primary business, CoreWeave recently pursued a $9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific, one of the largest Bitcoin (BTC) mining operators. However, the deal fell through after Core Scientific’s shareholders voted against the proposal. 

The attempted takeover fueled speculation about a return to crypto, but CoreWeave has characterized the effort differently.

The company stated that the acquisition aimed to secure access to approximately 1.3 gigawatts of power capacity across Core Scientific’s sites, which could be leveraged for future expansion in AI, cloud computing or other GPU-intensive workloads. 

CoreWeave had spent more than a year pursuing Core Scientific, beginning with an initial offer in June 2024 that the miner rejected. As Core Scientific’s stock rose, the price needed to secure a deal also increased, ultimately contributing to the failure of the final proposal when shareholders voted it down.

Related: Crypto Biz: Mining weakness tests Bitcoin’s market cycle

With Do Kwon scheduled to be sentenced on Thursday after pleading guilty to two felony counts, a US federal judge is asking prosecutors and defense attorneys about the Terraform Labs co-founder’s legal troubles in his native country, South Korea, and Montenegro.

In a Monday filing in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge Paul Engelmayer asked Kwon’s lawyers and attorneys representing the US government about the charges and “maximum and minimum sentences” the Terraform co-founder could face in South Korea, where he is expected to be extradited after potentially serving prison time in the United States.

Kwon pleaded guilty to two counts of wire fraud and conspiracy to defraud in August and is scheduled to be sentenced by Engelmayer on Thursday.

Source: Courtlistener

In addition to the judge’s questions on Kwon potentially serving time in South Korea, he asked whether there was agreement that “none of Mr. Kwon’s time in custody in Montenegro” — where he served a four-month sentence for using falsified travel documents and fought extradition to the US for more than a year — would be credited to any potential US sentence.

Judge Engelmayer’s questions signaled concerns that, should the US grant extradition to South Korea to serve “the back half of his sentence,” the country’s authorities could release him early. 

Kwon was one of the most prominent figures in the crypto and blockchain industry in 2022 before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, which many experts agree contributed to a market crash that resulted in several companies declaring bankruptcy and significant losses to investors.

Defense attorneys requested that Kwon serve no more than five years in the US, while prosecutors are pushing for at least 12 years.

The sentencing recommendation from the US government said that Kwon had “caused losses that eclipsed those caused” by former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky and OneCoin’s Karl Sebastian Greenwood combined. All three men are serving multi-year sentences in federal prison.

Will Do Kwon serve time in South Korea?

The Terraform co-founder’s lawyers said that even if Engelmayer were to sentence Kwon to time served, he would “immediately reenter pretrial detention pending his criminal charges in South Korea,” and potentially face up to 40 years in the country, where he holds citizenship. 

Thursday’s sentencing hearing could mark the beginning of the end of Kwon’s chapter in the 2022 collapse of Terraform. His whereabouts amid the crypto market downturn were not publicly known until he was arrested in Montenegro and held in custody to await extradition to the US, where he was indicted in March 2023 for his role at Terraform.

South Korean authorities issued an arrest warrant for Kwon in 2022, but have not had him in custody since the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. The country’s prosecutors applied to extradite Kwon from Montenegro simultaneously with the US, while they were pursuing similar cases against individuals tied to Terraform.

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice

Tether-backed Stable protocol has launched its USDT-powered blockchain, StableChain, alongside a new governance foundation and a native token. 

According to the protocol, the new layer-1 network is designed for stablecoin transactions and relies on Tether’s USDt (USDT) for gas fees payments, removing the need for volatile assets to process payments.

Alongside the mainnet debut, Stable introduced the Stable Foundation and the STABLE governance token on Monday, separating network security from payment flows settled in USDT.

The rollout follows a pre-deposit campaign that drew more than $2 billion from over 24,000 wallets. It also comes on the heels of a $28 million seed round backed by crypto exchange Bitfinex, Hack VC and other investors, including Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, who is also listed as an adviser to the project.

The launch expands the stablecoin infrastructure footprint of Bitfinex and Tether, which share the iFinex parent company, and extends USDT’s utility as a core element of the network’s design.

Brian Mehler, CEO of Stable, told Cointelegraph that the company has “maintained frequent contact with governing bodies overseeing the implementation of stablecoin and payments guardrails worldwide.”

Related: Circle and Bybit deepen USDC partnership as stablecoin nears $80B

Stablecoins’ role in digital payments continues to expand

The rise of stablecoins — digital tokens designed to maintain a steady value, often pegged to the US dollar — has pushed banks, payment companies and remittance providers such as Western Union to explore new strategies.

However, most stablecoins still run on blockchains that were not built for fast, low-cost payments. For example, Ethereum, home of the majority of the stablecoin supply, can take around three minutes to finalize transactions.

These constraints have helped drive interest in blockchains engineered specifically for stablecoin settlement.

In February, stablecoin startup Plasma raised $24 million to build a new blockchain for USDT in a funding round led by Framework Ventures and backed by Bitfinex, Peter Thiel and Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. Plasma’s mainnet beta went live on Sept. 25, launching alongside its native XPL token 

In August, Circle announced plans to launch Arc, an EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain designed for enterprise-grade stablecoin payments, FX and capital markets, later this year.

The following month, payment giant Stripe disclosed plans to launch a new layer-1 network called Tempo, after CEO Patrick Collison said that existing blockchains are “not optimized” to handle the growing stablecoin and crypto activity moving through Stripe’s platform.

According to DefiLlama data, the stablecoin market capitalization has grown to about $308.45 billion from $198.76 billion a year ago, a roughly 55% increase over the period.

Stablecoin market capitalization. Source: DefiLlama

Magazine: 6 reasons Jack Dorsey is definitely Satoshi… and 5 reasons he’s not

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the watchdog overseeing the country’s financial sector, has released proposals as part of its strategy to “boost UK investment culture,” and is asking for help from the crypto industry.

In discussion and consultation papers released on Monday, the FCA asked crypto companies to provide feedback on proposals aimed at “expanding consumer access to investments” and amending rules for “client categorization and conflicts of interest.”

Source: FCA

The discussion paper noted that “virtually all of the underperformance on high [digital engagement practices] apps could be attributed to trading in cryptoassets and [contracts for difference.” The proposal highlighted potential risks for consumers using “cryptoasset proxies” without investment limits, warnings, or “appropriateness tests.”

In its consultation paper, the UK watchdog proposed:

“We will also add guidance that a personal investment history mainly in speculative high risk or leveraged products or crypto assets is not usually an indicator of professional capability, unless there is strong evidence that the client meets the threshold of a professional client from other Relevant Factors, including the client’s ability to bear potential losses.”

According to the watchdog, the proposed changes would streamline the FCA’s existing guidelines and were part of a strategy to potentially “remove some arbitrary tests and give firms more responsibility to get it right.”

Companies that advised clients on or sold digital assets were asked to provide responses to the recommendations by February and March.

Slow and steady advances toward policies that favor cryptocurrency

The UK has been a significant hub for crypto companies doing business outside the United States, which, until the about-face on regulation and enforcement under US President Donald Trump, many industry leaders said that they considered an uncertain regulatory environment.

In December, the UK government passed a law treating digital assets as property, improving clarity on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) in cases such as the recovery of stolen goods or insolvency.

With the market steadily growing in the country, the government was reportedly considering a ban on crypto donations to political parties.

Magazine: When privacy and AML laws conflict: Crypto projects’ impossible choice

Key takeaways:

Luke Judges states that technical strength alone cannot guarantee long-term competitiveness, suggesting that XRP could benefit from Solana’s pragmatism and execution speed.

Judges believes Solana’s market traction comes from practical engineering and a fast go-to-market strategy rather than protocol design alone.

David Schwartz takes the opposite position, arguing that XRPL’s reliability and stability are more valuable than pursuing high-throughput chains.

Judges highlights that developer onboarding, tooling and validator incentives are critical for sustaining growth and reducing centralization risks.

Luke Judges, global partner success lead and director of Ripple, shared observations about the evolving XRP Ledger ecosystem and its competitive landscape, highlighting a clear parallel to the operational successes of rival layer-1 network Solana. Drawing on his prior experience in the Solana network managing a substantial validator, Judges suggested that technical superiority alone is not enough to secure a network’s long-term relevance.

This article explores Ripple executives’ insights on operational lessons, focusing on technical advancements within the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and the strategic requirements for layer-1 competitiveness.

Operational lessons from Solana’s playbook

Judges’ perspective is unique and rooted in his experience operating two startups and running a Solana validator that managed more than $30 million in staked tokens through a full market cycle. He shared this detail on Nov. 30, 2025, on X, noting that he witnessed the network’s major price peak as well as its subsequent collapse and recovery.

This hands-on exposure led Judges to conclude that the success of layer-1 networks in a competitive cycle is often driven by factors distinct from core technology. He specifically credited Solana with having “pragmatism and speed,” which he views as essential for securing developer mindshare and driving adoption.

The core idea is that execution velocity and a practical approach to engineering and market entry can outweigh theoretical leadership in the race for ecosystem growth.

Nonetheless, Judges suggests that other chains could take note of how Solana runs its network, arguing there is “no point burying your head in the sand pretending you’re the only chain in town.” For the XRPL, these observations highlight potential blind spots, suggesting that technical milestones must be paired with a proactive go-to-market (GTM) strategy to translate into a true competitive edge.

Technical developments in the XRP Ledger

The call for strategic acceleration comes as the XRPL is actively pursuing significant technical expansion, including the launch of XRP Ledger Smart Contracts on AlphaNet. Historically optimized for fast, low-cost cross-border payments through its federated consensus mechanism, the XRPL is now focusing on increasing its programmability and utility in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

In direct contrast to Judges’ view, David Schwartz, chief technology officer of Ripple and the original architect of the XRP Ledger, emphasized that XRP’s design philosophy is centered on reliability, efficiency and institutional-grade performance. He argued that this positions the network as inherently superior to high-throughput chains like Solana without needing to overhaul its core strategy.

Schwartz critiques blockchains such as Solana for prioritizing raw speed at the expense of stability, pointing to its history of network outages as evidence that this approach is unsuitable for real-world financial applications.

For Schwartz, the XRPL’s consensus mechanism delivers consistent transaction finality and near-zero fees, offering superior uptime and predictability. He argues that this is a critical competitive edge that should be prioritized over mirroring the ecosystem structure that Judges praises for its “pragmatism and speed.”

Developer and ecosystem considerations

A key element of Judges’ assessment concerns developer experience and ecosystem support. Providing effective developer tools, clear documentation and structured onboarding processes can encourage builders to deploy applications and engage with the network.

Judges’ commentary highlights core challenges in maintaining a resilient layer-1 network, particularly the need for robust and sustainable validator economics. While acknowledging Solana’s success in attracting builders, he also noted that the network is facing the challenge of how “validator count is dropping fast right now,” which raises long-term concerns about decentralization and the sustainability of its incentive model.

For the XRPL, this serves as a preemptive caution against creating incentive structures that could lead to similar concentration risks, especially as the network explores native staking concepts.

The debate over validator economics highlights the two networks’ different design philosophies. The XRPL’s consensus is valued for its battle-tested stability, fast transaction finality and institutional-grade reliability. Its challenge is to develop new staking mechanisms that increase utility without compromising its core value proposition of predictable reliability, which stands in contrast to the instability seen in some high-throughput chains.

Did you know? In his X post, Judges notes that the Ethereum Foundation is becoming “much more focused in their GTM,” referring to its shift toward layer-2 solutions, or rollups. This move directly addressed user complaints about high fees and slow speeds on the main chain, issues that Solana was effectively using to attract users.

Market context and strategic execution

Judges’ overall message should not be interpreted as an existential threat to the XRPL but rather as a constructive mandate for strategic adaptation. It reflects a high-level recognition that the competitive landscape rewards execution over theoretical technological superiority.

In practical terms, Judges states that the XRPL’s strategic focus should center on three areas:

Improving the developer experience by making it faster and easier for programmers to build on the XRPL, borrowing Solana’s focus on practical, quick-to-use tools.

Sharpening the market strategy to quickly turn new technical features such as smart contracts into clear, unique and appealing benefits for partners and users.

Leveraging reliability for enterprise adoption, which is the XRPL’s main strength, while adopting the operational speed and flexibility seen in rival networks.

Judges’ takeaway can be interpreted as a reminder that capturing the next phase of blockchain adoption requires strategic adaptation to ensure the XRPL’s execution matches its technical innovation and established leadership in cross-border financial applications.

Key takeaways

The halving-driven Bitcoin pricing pattern that shaped Bitcoin’s early history is losing power. As more BTC enters circulation, each halving has a smaller relative impact.

According to Grayscale, today’s Bitcoin market is shaped more by institutional capital than the retail speculation that defined earlier cycles.

Unlike the explosive rallies of 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin’s recent price rise has been more controlled. Grayscale notes that the subsequent 30% drop resembles a typical bull-market correction.

Interest-rate expectations, bipartisan US crypto regulatory momentum and Bitcoin’s integration into institutional portfolios increasingly shape market behavior.

Since it came into being, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has followed a predictable pattern. A programmed event cuts the supply of Bitcoin in half and creates scarcity. This has often been followed by periods of sharp price increases and later corrections. The repeating sequence, widely known as the four-year cycle, has strongly influenced investor expectations since Bitcoin’s earliest days.

Recent analysis from Grayscale, backed by onchain data from Glassnode and market-structure insights from Coinbase Institutional, takes a different view of Bitcoin’s price path. It indicates that Bitcoin’s price action in the mid-2020s may be moving beyond this traditional model. Bitcoin’s price movements appear increasingly influenced by factors such as institutional demand and broader economic conditions.

This article explores Grayscale’s view that the four-year cycle framework is losing its ability to fully explain price movements. It discusses Grayscale’s analysis of Bitcoin cycles, supporting evidence from Glassnode, and why some analysts believe Bitcoin will still follow the four-year cycle.

The traditional four-year cycle

Bitcoin halvings, which take place approximately every four years, reduce the issuance of new BTC by 50%. In the past, these supply reductions have consistently preceded major bull markets:

2012 halving — peak in 2013

2016 halving — peak in 2017

2020 halving — peak in 2021.

The pattern arose from both the built-in scarcity mechanism and investor psychology. Retail traders were the primary drivers of demand, and the reduced supply led to strong buying.

However, as a larger portion of Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply is already in circulation, each halving has a progressively smaller relative impact. This raises questions about whether supply shocks alone can continue to dominate the cycle.

Did you know? Since 2009, halvings have occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. Each one permanently lowered Bitcoin’s inflation rate and brought annual issuance closer to zero while reinforcing BTC’s digital scarcity narrative among long-term holders and analysts.

Grayscale’s assessment of Bitcoin cycles

Grayscale has concluded that the current market differs significantly from past cycles in three respects:

Institutional-dominated demand, not retail mania

Previous cycles depended on strong buying from individual investors on retail platforms. Today, capital flows are increasingly driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), corporate balance sheets and professional investment funds.

Grayscale observes that institutional vehicles attract patient, long-term capital. This is contrary to the rapid, emotion-driven retail trading seen in 2013 and 2017.

Absence of a rally preceding the drawdown

Bitcoin’s peaks of 2013 and 2017 were marked by extreme, unsustainable price surges followed by collapses. In 2025, Grayscale has pointed out, the price rise has been far more controlled, and the subsequent 30% decline looks like a standard bull-market correction rather than the beginning of a multi-year bear market.

Macro environment that matters more than halvings

In Bitcoin’s earlier years, price movements were largely independent of global economic trends. In 2025, Bitcoin has become sensitive to liquidity conditions, fiscal policy and institutional risk sentiment.

Key influences cited by Grayscale include:

Anticipated changes in interest rates

Growing bipartisan support for US crypto legislation

Bitcoin’s inclusion in diversified institutional portfolios.

These macro factors exert influence independent of the halving schedule.

Did you know? When block rewards are halved, miners receive fewer BTC for the same work. This can prompt miners with higher costs to pause operations temporarily, which often leads to short-term hashrate dips before the network rebalances.

Glassnode data showing a break from classic cycle patterns

Glassnode’s onchain research shows that Bitcoin’s price has made several departures from historical norms:

Long-term holder supply is at historically high levels: Long-term holders control a larger proportion of the circulating supply than ever before. Continual accumulation limits the amount of Bitcoin available for trading and reduces the supply-shock effect usually associated with halvings.

Reduced volatility despite drawdowns: Although significant price corrections occurred in late 2025, realized volatility has remained well below the levels seen at previous cycle turning points. It is a sign that the market is handling large moves more efficiently, often due to greater institutional participation.

ETFs and custodial demand reshape supply distribution: Onchain data shows growing transfers into custody wallets tied to ETFs and institutional products. Coins held in these wallets tend to remain dormant, reducing the amount of Bitcoin that actively circulates in the market.

A more flexible, macro-linked Bitcoin cycle

According to Grayscale, Bitcoin’s price behavior is gradually detaching from the four-year model and becoming more responsive to:

Steady long-term institutional capital

Improving regulatory environments

Global macroeconomic liquidity

Sustained ETF-related demand

An expanding group of committed long-term holders.

Grayscale stresses that corrections remain inevitable and can still be severe. However, they do not automatically signal the onset of a prolonged bear market.

Did you know? After each halving, Bitcoin’s inflation rate drops sharply. Following the 2024 halving, annual supply inflation fell below many major fiat currencies and strengthened its comparison to scarce commodities like gold.

Why some analysts still believe in halving patterns

Certain analysts, often citing Glassnode’s historical cycle overlays, continue to believe that halvings remain the primary driver. They argue that:

The halving is still a fundamental and irreversible supply cut.

Long-term holder activity continues to cluster around halving periods.

Retail-driven activity could still reappear even as institutional participation grows.

These differing views show that the discussion is far from settled. Arguments and counterarguments about Bitcoin’s ignoring the four-year cycle reflect an evolving market.

An evolving framework for understanding Bitcoin 

Grayscale’s case against the dominance of the traditional four-year cycle rests on clear structural shifts. These include rising institutional involvement, deeper integration with global macro conditions and lasting changes in supply dynamics. Supporting data from Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional confirm that today’s Bitcoin market operates under more sophisticated forces than the retail-dominated cycles of the past.

As a result, analysts are placing less emphasis on fixed halving-based timing models. Instead, they are focusing on onchain metrics, liquidity trends and institutional flow indicators. This more refined approach better captures Bitcoin’s ongoing transformation from a fringe digital asset into a recognized part of the global financial landscape.

Tether’s USDt, the largest stablecoin by circulation, has secured a regulatory milestone in Abu Dhabi’s international financial center, opening the door for licensed institutions to use the token in regulated services.

Announced Monday, USDt (USDT) was formally recognized as an “accepted fiat-referenced token,” allowing regulated firms in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) to offer trading, custody and other services involving the stablecoin. 

ADGM — an international financial center and free economic zone — has become a magnet for digital asset companies seeking clear rules and institutional access.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said the designation “reinforces the role of stablecoins as essential components of today’s financial landscape,” a nod to their growing use in remittances, cross-border settlements and digital asset markets.

ADGM had already classified USDT as an accepted virtual asset across issuance on Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche. The latest recognition extends that framework, potentially boosting USDT’s usability for cross-border payments, institutional custody and settlement.

Source: Tether

Abu Dhabi targets stablecoins for finance

Tether’s USDT isn’t the only stablecoin gaining traction in Abu Dhabi. Local regulators recently approved Ripple’s dollar-pegged RLUSD as an accepted fiat-referenced token, clearing the way for institutional use.

The development comes as expectations build around a separate initiative backed by some of Abu Dhabi’s largest financial players.

A consortium including ADQ — the emirate’s sovereign wealth fund — International Holding Company and First Abu Dhabi Bank has announced plans for a dirham-pegged stablecoin, pending approval from the UAE Central Bank.

Valued at over $300 billion, the global stablecoin market has experienced rapid growth over the past two years. Source: DefiLlama

Abu Dhabi and the UAE, more broadly, have emerged as key players in the developing stablecoin and digital asset markets, thanks to a relatively clear regulatory framework in a region already positioned as a global hub for commerce. ADGM has become a central venue for licensing exchanges, custodians and other crypto-focused firms seeking structured oversight.

Magazine: The one thing these 6 global crypto hubs all have in common…

How to choose what cryptocurrency to gift

With over 27 million cryptocurrencies available as of late 2025, choosing one can feel overwhelming. For a Christmas gift, especially for someone who barely uses crypto or has never held it before, the most reliable approach is to stick with established and well-known options.

There is no universal “best” coin since cryptocurrencies differ in purpose, age and level of adoption. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and those rated highly on CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko typically have the longest track records, the largest communities and the highest visibility. They are also widely supported by crypto exchanges and wallet apps, which makes it easier for a new user to manage or use the funds later.

While some newer or very low-priced cryptocurrencies are marketed with claims of rapid growth, they often fluctuate sharply and can be harder for beginners to manage or convert.

Crypto gift cards and vouchers

Crypto assets are volatile and can lose value, so gifting crypto should be viewed as a personal gesture rather than an expectation of financial gain.

Crypto gift cards and specialized vouchers are one of the most user-friendly entry points. They work much like standard gift cards for a retail store, but instead of credit for physical goods, the gift represents a claim on a specific value of cryptocurrency.

The process is straightforward. A digital code or physical card is bought for a fixed amount of traditional money, $100, for example. This card is your gift.

The recipient takes the code and enters it on the provider’s website or app. At that moment, the cash value is used to buy the chosen cryptocurrency, such as Bitcoin, at the current market rate. The purchased digital currency is then deposited into an associated account created by the recipient.

This crypto gift idea is suitable for people who are not familiar with wallets or recovery phrases and want to avoid complex transaction interfaces. They simply enter a code to receive their digital asset. Availability, supported coins and redemption steps differ by provider, so reading the terms carefully before purchasing is advised.

Gifting crypto through hardware wallets

For a significant gift meant for long-term holding, a hardware wallet can help reduce certain security risks, especially if you want to give a physical item you can wrap.

Hardware wallets are small physical devices used for secure storage because they keep private keys completely offline. These keys play a central role in security since the assets are controlled by whoever holds the key. And because the keys in hardware wallets never come into direct contact with the internet, they help reduce exposure to hacks and malware.

There are two primary ways to use a hardware wallet as a Christmas gift. One is to preload the crypto onto the device yourself. The other, and usually safer, approach is to gift the wallet unopened and guide the recipient through setting it up. This ensures that the recovery phrase is known only to them.

If the device is lost or damaged, the recovery phrase (also known as a seed phrase) is the only method to restore the wallet. Whoever knows that phrase can access the funds.

Hardware wallets vary in features, pricing and supported assets. This means you can choose a wallet that fits your budget and the features you want to give the recipient, whether they need basic Bitcoin storage or multi-asset support. Some models include small screens, passphrase support and companion apps.

Did you know? Aside from money or gift cards, you can give a non-fungible token (NFT), which is a one-of-a-kind digital item secured by the blockchain. It can turn your gift into a unique collector’s item rather than a simple monetary asset.

How to give crypto as a gift using exchanges and wallets

If the gift recipient is more crypto savvy, or if a direct money transfer is more convenient for them, sending tokens through an exchange or a self-custody software wallet is another secure option.

Another popular method is to transfer cryptocurrency directly to the recipient’s wallet. However, for this method to work, the recipient must already have a crypto wallet. Entering the address incorrectly or sending the funds on the wrong network can lead to irreversible loss.

To find the wallet address, the recipient needs to open their wallet or cryptocurrency exchange account and select the “Receive” or “Deposit” option for the chosen cryptocurrency. This will generate a unique public wallet address.

Then you log in to your wallet or exchange, select “Send” or “Withdraw” for that coin and enter the recipient’s address in the destination field. After confirming the amount and checking any network fees, the transaction is sent to the blockchain.

If you choose this method, make sure the address is valid and send a small test transfer before sending the full gift amount.

Risks and tax implications of gifting crypto

While gifting crypto in any form is exciting, knowing the associated risks and responsibilities is essential.

Core security risks of gifting crypto

The recipient should be aware that the value of cryptocurrencies is highly volatile and the amount gifted may rise or fall sharply over time. Unlike a traditional bank account, most crypto setups place the responsibility for security entirely on the user.

New cryptocurrency holders are also frequent targets of phishing emails and fake links designed to steal personal information. The golden rule is simple: Never reveal your seed phrase to anyone for any reason.

Gifting and tax implications

Crypto tax laws vary widely from country to country, and recipients should always consult a local qualified tax professional.

A general principle in many jurisdictions is that simply gifting cryptocurrency, or transferring ownership, is not usually an immediate taxable event for either the giver or the receiver. This applies as long as the value stays below certain annual exclusion limits. In the US, for example, the threshold per recipient is $19,000 for 2025.

The tax obligation usually arises for the recipient when they later sell, trade or dispose of the gifted crypto for a profit. To calculate future gains correctly, the recipient needs to know the original price the giver paid for the asset and the date it was acquired. Sharing this information can help the recipient understand the future tax calculation process if they choose to dispose of the asset later.