Cointelegraph

XRP (XRP) may see another sharp rise to a double-digit price, but similar market setups in 2022 and 2017 pointed to an extended consolidation period before this happens.

Key takeaways:

XRP macro setup targets $10, but an extended consolidation is required before any sharp liftoff.

XRP holds strong $1.80–$2 support since Dec 2024, which has historically produced 35%-90% price rebounds.

Onchain data suggest XRP is at levels that have previously preceded sideways price action. 

XRP’s needs “longer accumulation” before rebound

XRP defended the $1.78–$2 support band that it has held since December 2024, as shown in the chart below.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The XRP/USD pair has bounced 35%-90% each time it has retested this support base. 

It can gain as much as another 57% by year’s end if the setup plays out in the same way.

Related: XRP metric echoes setup that preceded 68% price fall

Analyst Mikybull Crypto said XRP is “preparing for liftoff” citing formidable support near the 2021 high at $1.96.

Source: Mikybull Crypto

“The price pattern is copying the previous bull run,” analyst CryptoBull said, referring to XRP’s consolidation around its previous all-time highs as seen in past cycles.

The “only difference is time, which makes sense, as we need longer accumulation for higher prices,” CryptoBull added.

XRP/USD weekly chart. Source: CryptoBull

Note that after dropping below its previous highs in 2022, the XRP/USD pair oscillated between $0.30 and $0.70 for more than three years before breaking out with a 390% run in December 2024.

If a similar scenario plays out, XRP price could consolidate around $2 (2021 highs) for an extended period before a massive upward breakout.

“The next impulse will take XRP to $11 and the last wave to $70,” CryptoBull added.

XRP is ‘undervalued’ at $1.90, but for how long?

Onchain data also highlights similarities between the current XRP market setup and previous bull cycles.

XRP’s net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) indicator has entered the “capitulation zone (red),” a position that is typically associated with cycle bottoms. 

The NUPL measures the difference between the relative unrealized profits and losses of XRP holders.

In previous market cycles, the transition to capitulation has coincided with extended price consolidation periods, as shown in the chart below.

XRP: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. Source: Glassnode

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio also supports this consolidation thesis. With a current daily reading of 1.23, significantly lower than a peak of 14.73 in 2017 and 2021’s 3.9, the metric suggests XRP is relatively undervalued. 

This lower MVRV ratio indicates reduced profit-taking pressure and increased potential for sustained price appreciation.

Before this happens, XRP price could consolidate for some time before embarking on a sustained recovery.

XRP: MRVR extreme variation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode

As Cointelegraph reported, holding $1.80–$2.00 and reclaiming $2.22 would keep XRP’s bullish case intact, fueled by latent buying pressure, which is slowly building up in the futures market.

Ripple has partnered with the innovation arm of Riyad Bank, a major Saudi financial institution, to explore the use of blockchain technology within the country’s financial system, signaling growing interest in blockchain-based infrastructure at the institutional level.

The partnership was announced Monday by Reece Merrick, Ripple’s senior executive officer and managing director for the Middle East and Africa. Merrick said Ripple is working with Jeel, Riyad Bank’s innovation unit, as part of an agreement to study potential applications of blockchain technology.

Source: Reece Merrick

The arrangement will take the form of a memorandum of understanding that focuses on cross-border payments, digital asset custody and asset tokenization. These efforts are intended to support Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s long-term strategy to modernize its economy and financial infrastructure while minimizing dependence on oil exports. 

The deal is notable given Riyad Bank’s scale and role in the domestic financial system. The bank is among Saudi Arabia’s largest lenders, with more than $130 billion in assets as of mid-2025, positioning it as a key participant in any broader shift toward blockchain-based financial services.

Related: Crypto takeaways from Davos: Politics and money collide

Middle East is emerging as a major market for digital asset innovation

While Saudi Arabia has historically taken a cautious approach to blockchain technology, the broader Middle East is moving more decisively in that direction, led in large part by the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE has positioned itself as a regional hub for digital assets by pairing clearer regulatory frameworks with active engagement from global companies. 

Regulators in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have introduced dedicated digital asset regimes covering exchanges, custody providers and stablecoin issuers, giving companies a clearer path to operate within traditional financial markets. This approach has attracted major players seeking regulated access to the Middle East and beyond.

Ripple has expanded its presence in the UAE as part of this trend. The company has secured regulatory approval for its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin, which is designed for institutional use cases such as payments and settlement.

The RLUSD stablecoin has eclipsed $1.3 billion in circulation. Source: CoinMarketCap

Beyond regional developments, tokenization activity on public blockchains is also increasing globally. The XRP Ledger recently surpassed $1 billion in onchain tokenized assets, reflecting growing institutional use of blockchain-based infrastructure.

The increase has been driven by a combination of tokenized US Treasury products and funds, as well as the growth of RLUSD, which has begun trading on major platforms, including Binance. 

Related: Four crypto comebacks from 2025 that could help shape year ahead

The US Senate Agriculture Committee and two federal financial agencies have delayed events related to digital asset regulation amid a winter storm that paralyzed many areas of the country over the weekend.

A spokesperson for the Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman told Cointelegraph on Monday that the body would push a scheduled markup for its version of a crypto market structure bill from Tuesday to Thursday. The bill, called the Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act, is the committee’s attempt to establish clear rules for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. 

In addition to the delay in Congress, the CFTC said on Monday that a joint event on crypto oversight harmonization with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would also be delayed by two days, from Tuesday to Thursday. CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins are scheduled to discuss “harmonization between the two agencies” on digital assets.

Source: CFTC

Although neither notice explicitly mentioned the reason for the delays, they were likely due to a winter storm that hit many areas of the US over the weekend, causing power outages, icy conditions and cancelled flights. Reports from the ground in Washington, DC, described “treacherous road conditions” and a majority of schools closed.

The markup event in the Agriculture Committee will be the Senate’s second attempt to address crypto market structure after Republican leadership in the Senate Banking Committee cancelled its markup of a similar bill two weeks ago. Chair Tim Scott announced that the event would be cancelled indefinitely following a social media post from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, saying that the exchange could not support the bill as written.

Senate Democrats seek ethics amendments in market structure

Among the 11 amendments lawmakers in the Agriculture Committee are expected to consider at markup include proposed amendments to address potential conflicts of interest with US officials profiting from the crypto industry and foreign interference.

Senator Michael Bennet introduced an amendment that would incorporate provisions from the Digital Asset Ethics Act into the market structure bill, specifically to bar individuals running for Congress or the White House from engaging with digital assets.

To pass through committee, the bill will likely need at least some Democratic support to head for a floor vote in the Senate. However, many crypto users are speculating that the US government could shut down at the end of January if lawmakers are unable to agree on a funding bill. A shutdown would also likely delay advancement of market structure in the Senate.

Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik

Key takeaways

The CLARITY Act aims to address years of regulatory uncertainty with a structured framework that clearly defines digital assets, intermediary roles and disclosure obligations.

It places most spot trading of qualifying tokens under CFTC oversight, while keeping the SEC responsible for primary offerings, disclosures and investor protections.

The bill focuses on regulating activities as much as assets, setting registration and conduct standards for exchanges, brokers and dealers to strengthen market integrity and transparency.

The GENIUS Act governs stablecoins, while the CLARITY Act applies only in complementary areas, such as disclosures and any reward-related features tied to stablecoin use.

The CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025) aims to break the industry’s legislative logjam through a two-pronged approach that defines what digital assets are and delegates oversight based on how they function in the marketplace. The legislation moves beyond ad hoc enforcement and instead proposes a comprehensive framework for asset classification, intermediary roles and mandatory disclosures.

This article explains what the CLARITY Act is and why it matters, outlines its objectives and examines how it proposes to govern stablecoins. It also covers the concept of mature blockchains, key arguments against the CLARITY Act and its current legislative status.

Why the CLARITY Act matters

The CLARITY Act addresses a long-standing issue in the crypto space: regulatory uncertainty.

For several years, digital asset companies have faced a confusing overlap between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The SEC often treats many tokens as securities, whereas the CFTC classifies them as commodities. This ambiguity has slowed innovation, complicated compliance, frustrated investors and created confusion for crypto businesses.

The CLARITY Act aims to resolve this logjam by establishing clear definitions for digital assets and assigning regulatory responsibilities based on the type of asset and activity involved. A predefined framework allows market participants to understand applicable rules upfront rather than facing uncertainty driven by enforcement actions.

Main objectives of the CLARITY Act

The bill uses three primary approaches to establish the related regulatory infrastructure:

Defining asset categories more precisely

The CLARITY Act introduces the term “digital commodity,” which refers to a digital asset whose value derives primarily from the use of its associated blockchain system. This definition excludes traditional securities and stablecoins. As a result, spot trading of many qualifying tokens would fall under the purview of the CFTC. Recognizing practical challenges faced by crypto networks, the definition emphasizes blockchain functionality and sufficient decentralization.

Clarifying regulatory jurisdiction

The act divides oversight by function:

The CFTC gains primary authority over digital commodity transactions, particularly in secondary and spot markets and on trading platforms.

The SEC retains authority over primary offerings, investor protections, required disclosures and initial sales.

The bill also encourages joint rulemaking in overlapping areas such as disclosures.

Establishing consistent disclosures and conduct rules

To safeguard investors and support fair markets, the legislation mandates standardized disclosures from developers and issuers. These would cover blockchain technical details, token economics and key risks, giving market participants comparable information to evaluate projects. Intermediaries such as digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers would be subject to registration, reporting and oversight requirements, largely supervised by the CFTC for trading-related activities.

Overall, the CLARITY Act seeks to replace regulatory gray areas with clear guidelines, supporting innovation while maintaining investor protections and market integrity.

Did you know? Crypto market structure debates are influencing how policymakers approach the regulation of AI models, as both involve unclear accountability and fast-moving innovation cycles.

How the CLARITY Act deals with stablecoins

The GENIUS Act, enacted in 2025, established a federal framework specifically for payment stablecoins. It excludes qualifying stablecoins from classification as securities or commodities, provided they meet strict reserve, redemption and oversight requirements.

The CLARITY Act does not override or duplicate this stablecoin regime. Instead, its provisions apply in complementary ways, particularly with respect to rewards tied to stablecoins, related disclosures and their interaction with broader digital asset markets.

The concept of “mature” blockchains

With a mechanism for assets to evolve, the CLARITY Act defines a pathway through which a blockchain can achieve “mature” status by meeting decentralization and other functional criteria.

Once these criteria are met, the associated token shifts toward treatment as a digital commodity under CFTC oversight. This can significantly reduce regulatory requirements, such as registration, provided the project satisfies other applicable conditions.

The concept of mature blockchains reflects the view that regulatory treatment should adapt as networks become more decentralized and widely distributed. It offers projects a clearer progression toward lighter compliance requirements.

Did you know? In past regulatory disputes, courts have sometimes relied on decades-old investment cases to assess crypto tokens, highlighting how existing legal frameworks are being stretched to fit entirely new digital markets.

Ongoing criticisms of the CLARITY Act

While the bill promises clarity, skepticism remains. Critics argue that its definitions may leave gaps, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi), where projects often do not fit neatly into traditional regulatory models.

Others contend that the investor protections fall short of established securities standards. Additional concerns focus on potential overlaps, such as how the SEC’s anti-fraud authority would apply in areas where the CFTC holds primary jurisdiction, especially for tokens with hybrid characteristics.

Legislative status of the CLARITY Act

The US House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) in July 2025 with bipartisan support. As of January 2026, the bill awaits action in the US Senate, where it has been referred to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. The legislative process also involves input from the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry on matters related to CFTC oversight.

As of January 2026, Senate committees have held hearings, released discussion drafts, proposed amendments and advanced versions of broader market structure legislation. However, markups have faced delays and revisions amid debate over issues such as stablecoin yields and investor safeguards. Reconciliation between Senate drafts and the House-passed bill remains ongoing, with no final Senate vote yet.

If enacted in a compatible form, the CLARITY Act would represent the first comprehensive US federal framework for digital asset market structure.

Did you know? Some blockchain networks now publish real-time transparency dashboards that show validator concentration, token velocity and governance participation. Regulators sometimes reference these metrics when debating whether a network is “sufficiently decentralized.”

Assessing the CLARITY Act’s blueprint

At its core, the CLARITY Act addresses a persistent challenge in crypto: unclear regulatory boundaries that deter innovation and encourage reactive enforcement rather than proactive compliance.

The act establishes defined asset categories, mandates consistent disclosures and assigns distinct roles to the SEC and CFTC. Its goal is to create a more predictable environment in which market participants understand the applicable rules from the outset.

Legislation, however, is only the starting point. Implementation, rulemaking and potential adjustments will determine the CLARITY Act’s real-world impact. Whether it ultimately delivers the promised clarity will shape US crypto policy and competitiveness for years to come.

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered through $88,000 after Monday’s Wall Street open as analysis called core demand “intact.”

Key points:

Bitcoin attempts to maintain a bounce after hitting new 2026 lows of $86,000.

Traders see downside resuming as markets grapple with uncertainty across the board.

Research still says that Bitcoin has a solid demand base.

BTC price seen following dollar downhill

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action continuing to bounce from new 2026 lows seen at the weekly close.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

After a disappointing weekly candle sparked warnings of further downside in crypto analytics circles, traders had little faith in Monday’s rebound lasting.

“I believe the maximum extension is likely around 89–91K before further downside,” trader Killa wrote in his latest post on X.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Killa/X

Fellow trader BitBull eyed declining US dollar strength as a cue for BTC/USD to put in a characteristic long-term low.

“This is a very crucial chart for $BTC holders,” he told X followers alongside a chart of the US dollar index (DXY). 

“Whenever DXY has dropped below 96 in the past, Bitcoin has bottomed. Even the 2 biggest rallies in BTC happened when DXY went below 96. And now, the DXY crash seems imminent. We all know what that means.”

US dollar index (DXY) vs. BTC/USD 10-day chart. Source: BitBull/X

Dollar weakness formed just one of many macroeconomic hurdles for risk-asset traders on the day, with Japan, US trade tariffs and the Federal Reserve interest-rate meeting all on the radar.

A further problem came in the form of a potential US government shutdown taking effect from Jan. 30.

“The situation bears resemblance to last autumn’s protracted fiscal standoff, which coincided with a sharp drawdown in crypto markets,” trading outfit QCP Capital wrote in its latest “Asia Color” market update.

QCP forecast that crypto markets were “likely to chop around in the near term, pending greater clarity, particularly around the risk of a U.S. government shutdown.”

IG: Bitcoin avoiding structural “breakdown”

On a more optimistic note, however, new research released by CFD and forex provider IG on the day retained belief in Bitcoin’s underlying strength.

Notwithstanding the various macro risks and poor performance versus stocks and other assets, BTC still enjoyed a demand base, IG argued.

“Despite the sharp decline, the Monday's recovery suggests that underlying demand remains intact,” the research stated. 

“Longer-term investors appear more willing to absorb supply at lower levels, viewing the move as a correction driven by positioning and macro shocks rather than a breakdown in Bitcoin’s structural outlook. This helped prices stabilise and rebound, even if the recovery has so far been measured rather than decisive.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: IG/X

IG gave resistance areas around $94,000 and $100,000 as longer-term targets, with $86,000 still important to avoid in the event of a fresh dip.

“​Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will likely depend on whether broader market conditions stabilise and whether buyers can build on the recovery without renewed selling pressure,” it added.

“​For now, the sharp sell-off and subsequent minor rebound serve as a reminder that even in a more mature phase of the cycle, Bitcoin remains highly responsive to shifts in sentiment, liquidity and risk appetite.”

Key takeaways

Europe has moved from drafting to enforcing crypto rules under MiCA, giving companies clear timelines, licensing paths and compliance milestones across all EU member states.

The US still relies on a multi-agency, enforcement-led framework, with major questions about token classification and market structure waiting on new federal legislation.

MiCA’s single-license model allows crypto firms to operate across the EU after approval in one country, encouraging companies to base early expansion strategies in Europe.

Unclear asset classification in the US makes exchanges more cautious about listings and staking, while MiCA’s categories reduce legal uncertainty despite higher compliance costs.

At the global level, two major economic blocs, the US and Europe, are taking very different approaches to crypto regulation.

On one side, the European Union has moved from drafting rules to active enforcement. The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has entered into force in phases. It already covers crypto asset service providers and market abuse, while the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) aims to integrate its interim MiCA register into formal regulatory systems.

On the other side, the regulatory framework in the US shows some progress but still lacks a single, full-fledged framework. The regulatory environment remains unclear and has been shaped largely by enforcement actions from multiple agencies.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) oversee securities, commodities, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and tax matters, respectively. States also license money transmitters, creating a complex, multi-agency structure.

This article explores how crypto rules have progressed in Europe and the US, how companies build, list and scale across both economic blocs, and the secondary effects of evolving crypto regulation in these regions.

What “Europe moves ahead” means: The MiCA framework

MiCA aims to establish uniform market rules across the EU for crypto assets not already covered by existing financial services law. The framework sets requirements for issuers and for crypto asset service providers such as exchanges, brokers, custodians and other intermediaries. It also includes provisions to address market abuse.

MiCA came into force in stages:

June 29, 2023: MiCA enters into force following publication in the EU Official Journal.

June 30, 2024: MiCA’s framework for asset-referenced tokens and e-money tokens becomes applicable.

Dec. 30, 2024: MiCA’s regime for crypto asset service providers becomes applicable.

Transition window up to July 1, 2026: Providers operating under national regimes before Dec. 30, 2024, may continue operating for a limited period, depending on member-state choices and whether authorization is granted or refused earlier.

This regulatory clarity has allowed firms in Europe to plan timelines, budgets and product roadmaps around defined regulatory milestones.

One of MiCA’s biggest structural effects is the introduction of an EU-wide authorization model for crypto asset service providers (CASPs). Firms can obtain a license in one EU country through its competent authority and then offer services across the EU without needing to relicense in each market.

MiCA covers several functions, including issuance, conduct, authorization, disclosures and service-provider obligations. Europe is also strengthening AML and counter-terrorist financing rules in the context of crypto. The EU’s AML package includes the establishment of the Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA).

Did you know? MiCA is among the first comprehensive frameworks to regulate crypto uniformly across all 27 EU member states, meaning a license obtained in one country allows firms to serve customers across the entire EU without reapplying in each market.

What “the US pauses” means: A work in progress

A pause in the US approach reflects ongoing deliberation over how to define the regulatory perimeter. Regulators are still weighing key questions, including when a token qualifies as a security, when it is treated as a commodity and which agency has primary authority over crypto asset activities.

Market-structure legislation is still in motion

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 aims to establish a federal regulatory structure for digital assets. It categorizes them as either digital commodities or investment contracts. Transactions involving digital commodities would fall under the authority of the CFTC, while those deemed investment contracts would come under the SEC.

If the Clarity Act becomes law, it would introduce requirements for certain digital asset brokers and exchanges to register with the CFTC. It would also establish standards for the custody of client assets, improving transparency and promoting investor protection.

Token classification remains the pressure point

In late 2025, Paul Atkins, chair of the SEC, said the commission was evaluating a “token taxonomy” based on the Howey investment-contract test. The regulator is exploring a classification model for crypto assets and potential exemptions as part of broader market-structure discussions.

This process matters because token classification is not just an academic exercise; it determines whether platforms must register with the SEC, which disclosures apply and whether certain products become too risky to offer in the US market.

The regulatory approach regarding stablecoins becomes clear

The GENIUS Act in the US establishes a federal framework for payment stablecoins, focusing on issuer oversight, reserve backing and consumer protections. It sets standards for who can issue stablecoins, how reserves must be held and disclosed, and how redemption rights should operate.

The law also limits misleading claims about government backing and clarifies supervisory roles for bank and non-bank issuers. It aims to make stablecoins safer for everyday payments while supporting regulated innovation.

Did you know? Paul Atkins has been closely involved in crypto policy debates through roles such as co-chair of the Token Alliance. He has advocated clearer token classifications and regulatory exemptions to support blockchain startups.

How companies build, list and scale in the US and Europe

Europe has established clear regulatory guidelines, while the US is still debating the perimeter of its crypto regulation. Crypto firms are responding in predictable ways.

Licensing strategies diverge: MiCA’s authorization structure encourages firms to choose an EU regulatory “home base” and scale outward. Companies often secure EU licenses first for regulatory certainty and consider US expansion later.

Listing policies grow more conservative in the US: Uncertainty around crypto asset classification makes exchanges and brokers more cautious. When it is unclear whether an asset will be treated as a security or a commodity, firms may limit listings or restrict features such as staking. On the contrary, MiCA lays out clearer categories and disclosure requirements. While this increases compliance costs, it reduces asset classification risk.

Stablecoin availability may not converge as users expect: While both Europe and the US regulate stablecoins, their compliance frameworks differ. Firms’ decisions on building, listing and scaling influence which stablecoins are prioritized, how reserves are structured and how distribution partnerships with banks, fintechs and exchanges are negotiated.

Companies want a single rulebook: Large institutions such as banks, asset managers and public companies prefer environments with stable and predictable rules. Europe’s single rulebook can be attractive for crypto firms. While the US offers deep capital markets, companies still need clarity around asset classification and registration pathways.

Did you know? Crypto licensing often covers not just exchanges, but also custody, brokerage, staking facilitation and token issuance. This means companies must design products around what their specific authorization legally permits them to offer.

Secondary effects of crypto regulations in Europe and the US

As Europe has put stable crypto regulation in place under MiCA and the US continues working on its regulatory perimeter, the impact goes beyond compliance checklists:

Liquidity pools can fragment: EU-regulated venues may attract flows from firms seeking clearer authorization frameworks. US venues, meanwhile, may remain deep but more selective in what they can list and how products are structured.

Compliance costs reshape competition: Large firms can spread the cost of meeting MiCA and AML requirements across their businesses. Smaller companies may need to merge, find partners or exit certain markets due to higher compliance costs.

More regulated on-ramps: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has outlined steps related to listed spot crypto products potentially trading on federally regulated markets.

While these outcomes are not guaranteed, they illustrate how crypto enterprises may operate differently across Europe and the US as regulatory frameworks evolve.

A new survey by the UK Cryptoasset Business Council (UKCBC) found that transfers between United Kingdom bank accounts and crypto exchanges are frequently blocked, delayed or refused, even when customers are trying to use regulated platforms.

​The survey, titled “Locked Out: Debanking the UK’s Digital Asset Economy,” draws on responses from 10 of the UK’s largest centralized exchanges, which collectively serve millions of UK consumers and have processed hundreds of billions of pounds in transactions. 

It aims to replace anecdotes with hard numbers on how current banking practices affect the sector. The UKCBC argues that widespread restrictions are a major obstacle to growth and are already undermining the UK’s ambitions to be a leading hub for digital assets.

Eight in 10 exchanges reported a noticeable increase over the past 12 months in customers experiencing blocked or limited transfers, with none seeing a decrease, the survey found. 

​How hard is it to move money?

Based on the exchanges’ data, UKCBC estimates that 40% of transactions to crypto exchanges are either blocked or delayed by the banks in question. 

Cryptoasset Business Council (UKCBC) report. Source: UKCBC

Simon Jennings, executive director of the UKCBC, told Cointelegraph, “We acknowledge that fraud is a legitimate concern and we actively want to work towards a solution.” “However, there is a widespread concern within the industry that banks are using compliance posture as a proxy to the hinder growth of the sector.”

One leading UK‑founded exchange observed close to 1 billion pounds (about $1.4 billion) in declined UK transactions over the past year, attributable to bank‑side rejections of card payments and open‑banking transfers.

The pattern spans a wide range of providers, with most major high‑street banks now imposing strict limits or blocks on both bank transfers and card payments to exchanges, while several challengers allow payments but with tight caps or 30‑day limits. 

​Blanket policies and lack of transparency

The UKCBC stresses that almost all major UK banks and payment firms currently impose blanket transaction limits or complete blocks on cryptoasset exchanges, often without differentiating between Financial Conduct Authority‑registered UK businesses and higher‑risk platforms. 

Qualitative feedback from exchanges highlighted inconsistent restrictions “even against FCA‑registered firms,” driven by blanket policies rather than evidence‑based risk assessment.

Jennings said that their engagement with UK exchanges showed that “payment blocks or limits are applied universally,” and that FCA registration “does not currently prevent these restrictions.”

​The report also flags a near‑total lack of transparency around these decisions, with 100% of surveyed exchanges saying banks provide no clear explanations for payment blocks or account restrictions, leaving firms and their customers “in the dark.” 

One exchange quoted in the report said that 60% of its customers expressed anger at the resulting friction, while another described bank‑imposed limits and bans as “the single biggest problem” with growing or launching new crypto products in the UK.

UKCBC recommendations

​For UKCBC, the concern goes beyond consumer inconvenience. The report concludes that anti‑competitive debanking practices are “undermining domestic innovation and driving competition overseas.”

It recommends that the government and FCA make clear that blanket bans are unacceptable, require banks to adopt more granular, risk‑based frameworks that distinguish between different exchanges, and remove unnecessary frictions for FCA‑registered firms.

Jennings said that “constructive dialogue” was the vital first step, however, so far, “banks have not meaningfully engaged and have been unwilling to share data on fraud levels.” He added, “If the UK is going to lead the global race, this cannot continue.”

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

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A cybersecurity researcher has uncovered a massive, publicly accessible database containing millions of stolen login credentials harvested from malware-infected personal devices, including accounts linked to major social media platforms and the crypto exchange Binance.

The dataset, uncovered by cybersecurity researcher Jeremiah Fowler, contained around 149 million usernames and passwords from personal phones and computers, according to a Friday blog post published on ExpressVPN. The records were tied to services including Facebook, Instagram, Netflix and Binance, with at least 420,000 credentials associated with Binance users.

The leak contained 48 million Gmail accounts, four million Yahoo accounts, 17 million Facebook accounts, 6.5 million Instagram accounts, 3.4 million Netflix accounts and 780,000 TikTok accounts, among others.

“This is not the first dataset of this kind I have discovered and it only highlights the global threat posed by credential-stealing malware,” said Fowler in the blog post. “Financial services accounts, crypto wallets or trading accounts, banking and credit card logins also appeared in the limited sample of records I reviewed,” he added.

94-gigabyte infostealer data set uncovered by researcher Jeremiah Fowler. Source: Expressvpn

The researcher also noted a concerning number of credentials associated with government-linked accounts and .gov domains, which open the door to phishing attacks, potentially allowing attackers to impersonate government agencies.

Credential theft, not a Binance-specific system breach

Security experts stressed the exposure does not indicate a breach of Binance’s internal systems. Instead, the credentials were collected through so-called “infostealer” malware that silently extracts saved logins from compromised devices.

“Infostealer is a known malware variant that steals user credentials when the users’ devices are compromised. Those are not leaks from Binance,” a spokesperson for Binance told Cointelegraph.

The incident signals a data leak on the end-user devices, not a breach to the exchange’s core systems, Deddy Lavid, the CEO of blockchain cybersecurity company Cyvers, told Cointelegraph.

“This highlights why the industry is shifting toward prevention-first security models that can detect and stop suspicious activity before funds are moved, alongside strong user hygiene such as hardware-based MFA and secure password practices.”

To protect its users, Binance monitors dark web marketplaces, alerts affected users, initiates password resets and revokes compromised sessions, the exchange wrote in a blog post published in March, 2025.

Binance recommends that users employ antivirus and anti-malware tools along with regular security scans to protect against external threats like this.

Related: Bitcoin investor loses retirement fund in AI-fueled romance scam

Infostealer malware: a new threat for crypto investors’ wallets

Cybersecurity firm Kaspersky first reported on the threat of the new infostealer malware in December 2025, which disguises itself as a game cheat or mod, targeting cryptocurrency wallets and browser extensions. 

Discovered in November, attackers use this malware to hijack accounts, steal cryptocurrency and install crypto miners on the victims’ computers, which are masked as video game cracks or mods, particularly for Roblox.

A fake website pretending to offer Roblox scripts, Source: Kaspersky

Built on the Chromium and Gecko engines, the malware’s dangers extend to over 100 browsers, including the most popular ones such as Chrome, Firefox, Opera, Yandex, Edge and Brave.

The malware also targeted the users of at least 80 cryptocurrency exchanges, including Binance, Coinbase, Crypto.com, SafePal, Trust Wallet, MetaMask, Ton, Phantom, Nexus and Exodus. 

To avoid falling victim to infostealers, users should run a reliable antivirus on their computers and keep an updated security and operating system on their mobile devices, Fowler said.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public Bitcoin holder, disclosed fresh BTC purchases as prices slid during a broader market sell-off.

Strategy acquired 2,932 Bitcoin (BTC) for $264.1 million last week, according to a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday.

The acquisitions were made at an average price of $90,061 per BTC, with Bitcoin starting the week above $93,000 and briefly tumbling below $87,000, according to CoinGecko.

The purchase brought Strategy’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, purchased for about $54.19 billion at an average price of $76,037 per coin.

Strategy’s January purchases exceed the last five months combined

Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase is notably smaller than its two earlier January buys, including the 22,305 BTC acquisition announced last week and a 13,627 BTC purchase the week before, which together account for the bulk of its recent accumulation.

So far this month, Strategy has acquired about 40,100 BTC, exceeding its combined purchases over the previous five months from August to December 2025, highlighting a sharp acceleration in buying activity since the start of the year.

Details from Strategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition. Source: SEC

The buy comes as Bitcoin has fallen more than 6% from recent highs, highlighting Strategy’s preference to purchase smaller amounts of BTC in periods of market weakness.

Strategy’s co-founder Saylor in 2024 pledged to keep buying Bitcoin at peak prices, while the company has since appeared more reluctant to make larger purchases during volatile market conditions.

At the time of writing, Strategy (MSTR) shares traded at around $163, down around 12% from a January high of $185, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) extended its weakness into the low-liquidity weekend trading session, with BTC slipping to a five-week low of $86,000 on Sunday. The cryptocurrency could potentially retest its macro low of $66,000 over the coming weeks, a key support level from November 2024.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin dropped below $87,000 on Sunday as its momentum weakened.

The Coinbase Premium hit a 12-month low, reflecting strong US spot Bitcoin selling pressure.

Bitcoin’s bearish setup targets a $66,800 BTC price.

Bitcoin faces stronger selling pressure in the US

The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and Binance, flipped red in mid-December 2025, dropping as low as -0.17. The last time the index was this low was in December 2024.

Related: BTC price 'bottoming phase' ends: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Even during short-term rebounds, BTC trades at a steady discount on Coinbase versus other major exchanges. The index has stayed negative for more than five weeks now (see the chart below).

“The Coinbase Premium continues to drop sharply and widen, indicating significantly stronger BTC selling pressure on Coinbase compared to other exchanges,” derivatives data provider CoinGlass said in an X post on Monday. 

The Coinbase Premium Index is “firmly below zero, showing continued sell pressure from U.S. spot flows,” CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision said in a recent QuickTake analysis. 

Historically, a prolonged negative Coinbase Premium has been associated with “capital moving away from US exchanges, and little evidence of aggressive dip-buying by long-term holders,” the analyst said, adding:

“Until the premium stabilizes and turns positive, the upside remains fragile.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant

When the index stayed predominantly negative between Dec. 18, 2024 and Jan. 5, 2025, it was accompanied by an 18% price drop over the same period.

Similarly, the index stayed negative between February 2025 and April 2025, leading to a 32% BTC price drop to $74,500 on April 7, 2025, from its previous all-time high of $109,000.

If US spot demand continues to fade, market participants may see a similar drawdown in BTC price over the coming weeks or months.

Additionally, institutional demand has declined sharply, with US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recording about $1.72 billion in outflows over the last five days. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs flows table. Source: Farside Investors

Coupled with more than $1.7 billion in outflows from crypto investment products last week, this points to a persistent bearish sentiment across the market. 

How low can Bitcoin price go?

Veteran trader Peter Brandt flagged a "sell signal” after the BTC/USD pair confirmed a bearish technical pattern.

“Yet another sell signal in Bitcoin as a bear channel has been completed,” Brandt said in an X post on Monday.

Brandt’s chart points to more downside risk if the price does not reclaim $93,000 level as support.

“The price needs to reclaim $93K to negate.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Peter Brandt

The measured target of the pattern, calculated by adding the height of the initial drop to the breakout point at $90,000, is $66,800, representing a 22% decline from the current price. This level also roughly aligns with previous BTC price highs from 2021 and 2024.

As Cointelegraph reported, the area between $80,000 and $84,000 remains a key support zone for Bitcoin, and holding it is crucial to avoiding further losses. 

Opinion by: Marcin Kaźmierczak, co-founder of RedStone

The fight for dominance in blockchain won’t be won by whoever has the lowest fees or the fastest consensus; it will be won by whoever can mobilize the largest base of users.

Circle, Stripe, Coinbase and others are soon to follow, rewriting their business models around proprietary chains. They already control the payment flows, merchant networks and trading activity that most blockchains spend years trying to attract.

By redirecting that existing volume into their own ecosystems, they don’t just launch chains; they throw them into orbit with gravity.

This shift is the axis around which the next wave of blockchain dominance will rotate. Transaction fees that once accrued to neutral networks now stay in-house. Compliance and settlement can be built into the DNA of the chain. Merchants, traders and institutions aren’t asked to join — they’re automatically upgraded into validators, liquidity providers and onchain participants.

For incumbents, the cold-start problem disappears. For everyone else, it defines the gap between success and irrelevance. The result is a new competitive landscape.

Distribution as infrastructure

Consider Coinbase’s launch of Base. It didn’t need to “bootstrap” the new chain. Instead, it routed tens of millions of existing users directly to it. Overnight, Base became one of the most active layer 2s in the ecosystem, not because it offered radically different technology but because Coinbase already owned the audience.

Circle has a similar advantage with USDC (USDC). By directing settlement flows toward its own chain, Arc, Circle secures the network effects of the most widely used dollar stablecoin. Likewise, Stripe, with its millions of merchants, can migrate payment rails onto Tempo, offering lower fees and faster payouts as incentives. Taken together, these moves show that the center of gravity in blockchain has already shifted upstream.

Startups need to design effective incentive programs, invest heavily in marketing and hope speculators stick around long enough to bootstrap real activity. Incumbents, by contrast, instantly convert existing customers into network participants. What would take a startup chain years of ecosystem building, these companies accomplish instantly with entrenched customer bases.

The new center of gravity

Some skeptics still argue that corporate chains will fragment liquidity, or isolate users from the open cryptocurrency ecosystem. They’re not entirely wrong. Liquidity could splinter, and not all flows will remain composable with Ethereum or other general-purpose networks, but the gravitational pull of distribution is impossible to ignore.

While the launch of PayPal USD (PYUSD) may not have disrupted the stablecoin market overnight, if even 5% of its 400 million users begin transacting on proprietary rails, the adoption shockwaves will dwarf most crypto-native launches. If JPMorgan directs institutional settlement onto Kinexys, the market effect will be immediate.

This is why the debate over “throughput wars” and marginal improvements in consensus efficiency is losing its relevance. Architecture bends to distribution, not the other way around. A chain with users will always outcompete a chain with features. The shift toward distribution-first chains has created a new set of winners and losers.

The architecture fork is just strategy

We’re already seeing how this battle has divided the landscape. Coinbase, Circle and Stripe can automatically turn their users into validators, liquidity providers and transactors. To make that stick, architecture is picked with precision. A sovereign layer 1 enables them to embed compliance and control economic flows for high-value institutional settlements, whereas a layer 2 facilitates faster launches, Ethereum security guarantees and the immediate onboarding of existing users.

From there, the playbook is straightforward: Launch with a captive audience, sweeten the deal with lower fees or faster payouts, ensure interoperability and expand outward from core flows. This model leapfrogs technical tinkering, converting existing customers into participants in a new value system, whether they realize it or not.

Neutral layer 1s and startups face a starkly different reality. They can’t outscale Stripe’s merchants or Circle’s stablecoin flows, and they can’t force users to show up. But “disadvantage” doesn’t mean doom. Their path forward is specialization. Ethereum can continue emphasizing neutrality and settlement finality, Solana can focus on high-frequency environments, and other layer 1s can develop niche, domain-specific ecosystems that corporate chains cannot easily replicate. In this environment, the chain that best converts its distribution into network effects will dominate, while technical elegance alone is insufficient.

Code matters, but customers decide

The multichain future is certain and will be defined by the gravitational force of companies that already control users at scale. Over the next five years, banks, fintechs, payment processors, social platforms and even gaming companies will all face the same choice: launch their own chain to capture the value of their user base or watch competitors do it first. Success will not go to the architect of the cleverest protocol, but to the one who mobilizes millions from the very beginning.

For traditional layer 1s, this is a crossroads. Competing on throughput or fees won’t be enough against companies that already own the audience. Their only durable path forward is to specialize and capitalize on the domain-specific ecosystems that corporate chains can’t replicate. The future will be multichain, but unevenly so. General-purpose layer 1s risk being sidelined, while platforms with distribution at scale define the next wave of adoption.

Technology creates possibilities. Distribution creates inevitability. In the coming era, the chains that control users will dictate the rules of the game.

​Opinion by: Marcin Kaźmierczak, co-founder of RedStone.

This opinion article presents the contributor’s expert view and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance, Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.

Bitcoin (BTC) may face another sharp sell-off if growing talk of a Japanese yen (JPY) intervention turns into action, with past intervention episodes coinciding with 30% drawdowns in BTC price.

Key takeaways:

Past Japanese yen shocks saw BTC drop about 30%, and then recover by over 100%.

Onchain data says the Bitcoin bottom is not yet confirmed.

Bitcoin’s yen fractal shows 30% drawdowns before rebounds

A yen intervention is when Japan’s authorities step into the forex market to influence the currency, most commonly by selling dollars and buying yen to slow a rapid yen slide.

Over the weekend, markets were on alert after reports that the New York Fed conducted “rate checks” in USD/JPY, often treated by FX traders as a prelude to coordinated action.

That followed official comments emphasizing close US-Japan coordination on currencies.

In the two prior intervention windows, BTC sold off by about 30% from local highs before forming a base, due to the unwinding of the “yen carry trades.”

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In both cases, the post-shakeout recovery eventually extended into a rally of 100% or more.

“The same scenario is about to occur now,” said analyst Mikybull Crypto, adding that the BTC price “will first dump and rally afterward.”

Bitcoin risks declining toward the $65,000–$70,000 range if the yen fractal plays out as intended.

Bitcoin onchain metrics reinforce bearish outlook

Bitcoin has not reached full capitulation and is yet to form a “true bottom,” according to data resource Alphractal.

One of the indicators behind that view is net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), which tracks whether Bitcoin holders are sitting on paper gains or paper losses.

As of Monday, NUPL was falling but still above zero, meaning the market remains net “in profit,” even after the recent drawdown.

Bitcoin NUPL vs. price chart. Source: Alphractal

In past cycles, Bitcoin’s bottoms tended to form only after NUPL turned negative. The flip signaled that most holders were underwater, and selling pressure was largely washed out.

As Cointelegraph reported, the supply in profit is currently 62% — the lowest level since September 2024, when Bitcoin traded at around $30,000.

At the same time, Bitcoin’s delta growth rate turned negative.

Bitcoin’s delta growth rate vs. price chart. Source: Alphractal

The metric compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value.

A drop below zero suggests price is slipping toward (or below) the network’s aggregate cost basis, signaling a market that is cooling and moving away from speculation and into accumulation.

In simple terms, the data suggests the market is cooling and still vulnerable to another drawdown before a durable bottom is set.

Alphractal said the process can be painful but often sets up “generational buying opportunities,” a view that fits with the yen-intervention fractal.

Crypto investment products reversed course last week from solid inflows to one of the largest outflow weeks on record amid persistent bearish market sentiment.

Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) saw $1.73 billion of outflows during the week, the biggest since mid-November 2025, CoinShares reported on Monday.

“Dwindling expectations for interest rate cuts, negative price momentum and disappointment that digital assets have not participated in the debasement trade yet have likely fuelled these outflows,” CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill, said.

The latest outflows highlight the market’s sideways trading, following the prior week’s $2.2 billion of inflows.

Bitcoin and Ether lead outflows with $1.72 billion combined

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) led outflows from crypto funds last week, with withdrawals of $1.09 billion and $630 million, respectively.

While the outflows reflected broad negative sentiment across the market, some altcoins bucked the trend. XRP (XRP) and Sui (SUI) saw outflows of $18.2 million and $6 million, while Solana (SOL) recorded inflows of $17.1 million.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by asset as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Chainlink (LINK) funds also saw minor inflows at $3.8 million, according to CoinShares data.

Short-Bitcoin ETPs saw shy $500,000 inflows, contradicting the negative market sentiment. “Regardless, it indicates sentiment has still not improved since Oct. 10, 2025 price crash,” CoinShares’ Butterfill noted.

BlackRock’s iShares, Fidelity top the losses

Outflows were spread across several issuers last week, with BlackRock’s iShares exchange-traded funds (ETFs) leading the way at $951 million.

Fidelity Investments and Grayscale Investments followed with outflows of $469 million and $270 million, respectively. Some issuers, however, managed to post gains, with Volatility Shares and ProFunds Group recording inflows of $83 million and $37 million.

Weekly crypto ETP flows by issuer as of Friday (in millions of US dollars). Source: CoinShares

Regionally, outflows were concentrated in the United States, totaling $1.8 billion.

Total assets under management in crypto funds fell to $178 billion, down from $193 billion at the end of the previous week.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the January close in dangerous territory as macro volatility factors ramp up.

Bitcoin closes the week below key support in a move that opens the door to new lows.

FOMC week dawns, but markets are focused on Japan, tariffs and geopolitical instability.

Precious metals smash historic records while crypto fails to match them.

Bitcoin short-term holders show signs of record capitulation at current price levels.

“Tactical” Bitcoin selling pressure is ongoing, with liquidity able to absorb the distribution.

BTC price analysis sees new lows

Bitcoin dropped to $86,000 around Sunday’s weekly close — a target already on the radar for traders.

Data from TradingView shows buyers defending that level into the week’s first Asia trading session, with $90,000 still out of reach.

“There’s so much volatility ahead of us coming week. Not only on the Bitcoin & Crypto markets, but also in forex, commodities & bond markets,” crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe summarized in a post on X. 

“Crypto is preparing for the worst, hence the deep selloff and that’s why I think coming week brings a generational opportunity across the board.”

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

After closing the week below $86,500, BTC/USD is in a thoroughly bearish position, per Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan.

In his latest analysis, Alan warned of consequences in the event of a weekly close under the 2026 yearly open level near $87,500 and the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) at $87,250.

Pay close attention to the weekly close for $BTC! The only thing more bearish than a weekly close below the Yearly Open Timescape Level at $87.5k, would be a weekly close below the 100-Week SMA. pic.twitter.com/WjMitP2Ez6

— Keith Alan (@KAProductions) January 25, 2026

“Wicks don't count, it's the close that matters,” he added in a separate post showing exchange order-book liquidity data and whale orders. 

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirmed 24-hour cross-crypto liquidations of nearly $750 million at the time of writing.

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“Based on Bitcoin losing the mid-range; HTF liquidations to the downside; and the possible US Gov. shutdown, we still think that the most likely scenario is that Bitcoin drops back to low $80s in the coming weeks,” trader CrypNuevo forecast at the weekend.

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

In a bold prediction, meanwhile, trader, analyst and commentator BitQuant went on record to announce an inflection point for BTC price action.

“The coming week is significant in that it marks the end of the bottoming phase,” he told X followers.

BitQuant retains the view that a long-term high for Bitcoin has not yet been reached, with this due at $145,000.

Fed to conduct first FOMC meeting of “wild year”

The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates forms the week’s key macroeconomic event, but traders have multiple volatility sources to contend with.

These include worries over the Japanese economy and the Fed’s move to buy yen, along with international trade questions still hanging in the air.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce any changes to its benchmark rate, with Chair Jerome Powell delivering guidance in an accompanying speech and press conference.

Markets will be watching Powell’s language in particular for signs of policy change. Expectations for the meeting itself have long been that rates will stay the same.

Fed target rate probabilities for Jan. 28 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool

At the same time, tensions between him and US President Donald Trump remain, along with a legal investigation into Fed building renovations that Powell dismissed as a pretext for changing his policy trajectory before his imminent replacement.

“The Chief Investment Officer of BlackRock is now expected to be the next Fed Chair. And, Trump says cutting rates is a ‘requirement’ for the next Fed Chair and is actively calling for 1% interest rates. 2026 is going to be a wild year,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter commented on X.

Macro data itself has given mixed signals over US inflation. Regardless, stocks continue to enjoy a strong start to 2026, while crypto languishes.

“Loose monetary policy and an expanding global money supply are key drivers behind bullish financial conditions. But if those conditions also deliver stronger than expected economic growth, inflation could become more problematic in the year ahead,” trading outfit Mosaic Asset Company wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”

“Core measures of consumer inflation have remained near the 3% level on a year-over-year basis, with the disinflation trend since mid-2022 stalling out well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”

Global liquidity conditions. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

Mosaic warned that a rebound in inflation this year would trigger moves seen during the 1970s.

This week, meanwhile, will also see the December print of the Producer Price Index (PPI). November’s release came in above expectations.

“World is waiting on crypto” as gold, silver boom

In a predictable milestone, gold and silver crossed historic thresholds to start the week, passing the $5,000 and $100 marks, respectively.

XAU/USD reached $5,111 per ounce, with XAG/USD hitting $110 for the first time during Monday’s Asia trading session.

XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The relentless rise in precious metals continues as Bitcoin and altcoins fail to catch a bid, having been stuck in a narrow range for several months. 

That inverse relationship is now beginning to make waves beyond the crypto trading community.

“Where is Bitcoin?” The Kobeissi Letter queried in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon. 

“Silver prices are now outperforming Bitcoin by one of their widest margins on record. In ~13 months, Silver is up +270% as Bitcoin has fallen -11%. This makes Silver's market cap 3.5 TIMES larger than Bitcoin. The world is waiting on crypto.”

BTC/USD vs. CFDs on silver % change. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi suggested that the threat of another US government shutdown, which it described as “likely,” was “adding fuel to the fire” across precious metals.

Van de Poppe captured the pro-crypto mood around BTC versus gold.

“Bitcoin vs. Gold is the cheapest it has ever been. At least, the gap between the two has never been this big in terms of fair value. The 2-Week RSI is the lowest ever. Lower than in 2022, lower than in 2018,” he wrote Sunday. 

“It doesn't make sense to be valuing an asset like Bitcoin against the dollar, it makes sense to value Bitcoin against other assets, in this case Gold. In that aspect, Gold is expensive, Bitcoin is super cheap.”

BTC/USD vs. gold two-week chart with RSI, volume data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

At the same time, Van de Poppe revealed an unprecedented potential bullish divergence on BTC/XAG.

“What does this say? This does say that the coming week is going to be extremely volatile and could indicate a bottom on this metric and therefore, Silver is likely to peak and money is likely rotating towards other assets,” he commented.

BTC/XAG three-day chart with RSI, volume data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Short-term holders panic at a loss

BTC price action may be rangebound, but onchain activity shows that newer investors are as sensitive as ever to sudden moves.

Uploading data to X from onchain analytics resource Checkonchain, the analytics account named after famous economist Frank Fetter wrote that loss-making trades were making history.

“Short-term holders are realizing losses at historic levels on the bitcoin CRASH to $86k,” it stated.

The data showed the realized profit/loss ratio for Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cohort — the group of wallets holding a given amount of BTC for six months or less.

The proportion of transactions from STH wallets in which BTC is moving at a lower price than that at which it last moved is now higher than ever. The ratio is lower than during the 2022 bear market bottom, when BTC/USD hit $15,600 after a near 80% drop from its old 2021 all-time highs.

Bitcoin STH realized profit/loss ratio. Source: Frank A. Fetter/X

Continuing, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms that the overall BTC supply has crossed a bearish profit threshold of its own.

Supply in profit currently stands at 62% — the lowest level since September 2024, when Bitcoin traded at around $30,000.

“When Bitcoin Supply in Profit drops below 70% and fails to recover above 80%, it is historically a sign of a potential further decline and often a confirmation of a bear market,” contributor El Crypto Tavo wrote in an accompanying “Quicktake” blog post.

BTC supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant

Bitcoin selling “genuine but controlled”

Discussing the weekend’s drop to $86,000, CryptoQuant appeared unalarmed.

Analyzing volume delta on exchange order books, contributor Arab Chain argued that the market was not experiencing a rush for the exit.

Volume delta reached a relatively modest $59.6 million on Binance during the dip, indicating only slight dominance of sellers over buyers.

“Numerically, this represents significant selling pressure; however, its true significance becomes apparent when compared to price action,” Arab Chain explained. 

“Despite this large negative figure, no sharp price collapse was observed, indicating strong liquidity absorption within the order book.”

Bitcoin buy-side pressure vs. BTC/USD (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Volume delta z-score readings, it added, represented “short-term tactical selling pressure rather than a phase of panic or widespread forced liquidation.”

Last week, Cointelegraph reported on split intentions among the professional Bitcoin investor base amid unclear price trends heavily influenced by external factors.

“These values reflect genuine but controlled selling pressure, characterized by elevated selling liquidity, limited imbalance, and moderate statistical deviation,” Arab Chain concluded. 

“This combination often defines rebalancing phases, during which momentum temporarily weakens without a breakdown in market structure.”

Tokyo‑listed Bitcoin treasury company Metaplanet raised its 2025 revenue and operating income forecasts and flagged a large non‑cash Bitcoin write‑down, while sharply increasing guidance for 2026.

The company now expects 2025 revenue of 8.905 billion Japanese yen (approximately $58 million) and operating income of about $40 million, according to a Monday notice.

Despite an improved operating outlook, Metaplanet forecasts an ordinary loss of roughly $632 million and a net loss of about $491 million. Both figures are driven by a Bitcoin impairment loss of around $680–700 million, which is a non‑cash write‑down of the value of its Bitcoin (BTC) holdings at year‑end prices.

That leaves Metaplanet on track to post a deep annual loss for 2025 despite stronger underlying operating performance when it files its full‑year results on Feb. 16, 2026.

Notice Regarding Revision of Full-Year Earnings Forecast. Source: Metaplanet

Metaplanet management said that Q4 2025 revenue from its Bitcoin Income Generation business “is expected to significantly exceed initial projections,” lifting full‑year revenue in that segment to around $55 million, up from roughly $40 million previously announced.

Bitcoin impairment and BTC yield

The filing explains that the impairment stems from quarter‑end mark‑to‑market accounting and is a “non‑cash accounting adjustment reflecting period-end price fluctuations and has no direct impact on the Company's cash flows or operations.” 

At the same time, Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Treasury business continued to grow. BTC holdings rose from 1,762 BTC at the end of 2024 to 35,102 BTC at the end of 2025, with BTC yield per diluted share reaching 568% for the year. In other words, the amount of Bitcoin backing each diluted share increased by 568% over 2025, a metric the company uses to track BTC growth on a per share basis.

Because of the difficulty of forecasting Bitcoin prices, the company does not provide guidance for ordinary income or net income for 2026.

2026 guidance and spending

For 2026, Metaplanet forecasts revenue of around $103 million and operating income of about $73 million, with almost all that revenue expected from the Bitcoin Income Generation business alone, and selling, general and administrative expenses of roughly $29 million.

Metaplanet publishes daily data on its BTC holdings, unrealized gains and losses and related metrics.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

Decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregator Matcha Meta suffered a security breach on Sunday through one of its primary liquidity providers, SwapNet, in the latest cyberattack tied to exploiting smart contract vulnerabilities.

Matcha Meta disclosed the breach in a post on X on Sunday, warning that users who had disabled one-time token approvals may be at risk. The protocol urged users to immediately revoke all approvals granted to SwapNet’s router contract to prevent further losses.

Estimates of the stolen funds vary. Blockchain security company CertiK said roughly $13.3 million was taken, while PeckShield estimated at least $16.8 million in funds stolen on the Base network.

“So far, ~$16.8M worth of crypto has been drained. On Base, the attacker swapped ~10.5M USDC for ~3,655 ETH and has begun bridging funds to Ethereum,” wrote PeckShield in a Monday X post, urging users to revoke all approvals related to the protocol.

CertiK said the exploit stemmed from an “arbitrary call in @0xswapnet contract that let attacker to transfer funds approved to it.”

Matcha Meta said the exposure was linked to SwapNet rather than its own infrastructure. Cointelegraph has contacted Matcha Meta for comment on the cause of the vulnerability and any plans to compensate affected users or strengthen safeguards, but had not received a response by publication.

Source: Matcha Meta

The incident comes two weeks after another smart contract exploit resulted in $26 million in losses from the offline computation protocol Truebit and a 99% crash for the Truebit (TRU) token, Cointelegraph reported on Jan. 8.

Related: Bitcoin investor loses retirement fund in AI-fueled romance scam

Smart contracts the largest target for crypto hackers

Smart contract flaws have emerged as the leading cause of crypto losses. Smart contract vulnerabilities accounted for 30.5% of all the crypto exploits in 2025, with 56 cybersecurity incidents, according to SlowMist’s year-end report.

Account compromises and hacked X accounts accounted for 24% in second place.

Distribution of causes for security incidents in 2025. Source: SlowMist

Related: Fake MetaMask 2FA security checks lure users into sharing recovery phrases

Security researchers say advances in artificial intelligence are also reshaping how vulnerabilities are identified.

In December, commercially available generative AI agents uncovered $4.6 million worth of smart contract exploits in existing protocols, through Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.5, Claude Sonnet 4.5 and OpenAI’s GPT-5.

Magazine: Meet the onchain crypto detectives fighting crime better than the cops

Coinone, one of a handful of regulated South Korean cryptocurrency exchanges, is reportedly up for sale, with both local financial institutions and foreign exchanges among the rumored bidders.

The company has begun a process to sell the stake held by Chairman Cha Myung-hoon, who controls 53.4% of the company, the local news agency Seoul Economic Daily reported on Sunday.

“We are discussing partnerships, including equity investments, with overseas exchanges and domestic financial institutions,” Coinone confirmed to the outlet, adding that no final decision has been made.

The reported sale comes amid a wave of consolidation in South Korea’s crypto industry, with major mergers and acquisitions involving Binance, Naver, Dunamu and Mirae Asset.

South Korea is one of the largest crypto markets globally

Apart from Cha’s 53% stake, Coinone’s potential sale reportedly involves an additional share sale by local game dev company Com2uS, which acquired a 38.4% stake in the exchange between 2021 and 2022.

Com2uS’s book value in Coinone fell to 75.2 billion won ($52 million) by the end of the third quarter of 2025, far below the 94.4 billion won ($65 million) it paid for the stake, the report notes.

Coinone ranks third in South Korea by crypto trading volume, with $168.7 million, behind Upbit and Bithumb. Source: CoinGecko

South Korea is the second-largest crypto market in the Asia-Pacific by total value received, according to Chainalysis, making it one of the world’s key digital asset hubs.

In March 2025, the country had 16.29 million crypto investors, or nearly 32% of the population, surpassing the 14.23 million stock investors reported at the time.

Speculation grows over possible Coinbase investment

Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange by trading volume, has been widely speculated to be interested in acquiring a stake in Coinone, given the strategic importance of the South Korean market.

The Seoul Economic Daily reported that Coinbase plans to visit South Korea this week to discuss potential equity investment and cooperation with Coinone and local firms.

Source: Wu Blockchain

While Coinbase says it operates in more than 100 countries, it has not formally launched or operated a dedicated exchange under South Korean regulation.

Coinbase declined to comment to Cointelegraph on the reported visit or on whether it is considering entering the South Korean market, saying it does not comment on rumors or speculation. Coinone did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The news comes amid a wave of deals in South Korea’s crypto exchange sector, including September 2025 reports that Naver would acquire Upbit, the country’s largest crypto exchange.

Mirae Asset Group, a major South Korean financial services firm, said it planned to buy Korbit, one of the country’s largest exchanges, in late 2025 in a deal worth up to $100 million.

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume, reportedly completed a majority stake acquisition in local exchange Gopax in October 2025 as part of its return to the market.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026

Japan is weighing whether to allow its first cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs), potentially as early as 2028, in a move that would mark a significant shift in how the country regulates digital assets for mainstream investors.

According to a report by Nikkei, citing people familiar with the matter, Japan’s Financial Services Agency plans to amend its regulatory framework to allow crypto to be included as eligible ETF assets alongside stronger investor-protection mechanisms. 

Major financial groups, including Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings, are among the first companies expected to develop crypto-linked ETF products, Nikkei reported.

If implemented, the changes would lower barriers for Japanese retail investors aiming for regulated exposure to Bitcoin (BTC) and other digital assets through traditional brokerage accounts. The move would also bring Japan closer to markets like the United States and Hong Kong, which approved spot crypto ETFs in 2024. 

Japan sends another policy signal, not an approval

The discussions reflect regulatory intent rather than a finalized policy shift. The FSA has not publicly confirmed a timeline, and any change would likely require formal consultations and revisions before crypto ETFs could be approved under Japan’s existing rules.

At the time of writing, crypto ETFs remain unavailable in Japan due to current policies that restrict ETF-eligible assets. While the regulator refined its approach to crypto, ETFs tied directly to digital assets have so far remained outside the framework. 

Nikkei estimated that Japanese crypto ETFs could eventually reach 1 trillion yen, worth about $6.4 billion, in assets. However, the estimates are speculative and depend on market conditions, investor demand and finalized regulations. 

Related: Japan’s finance minister backs exchanges as gateway for digital assets

Industry positioning already underway

SBI Holdings has previously outlined plans to launch a crypto ETF in Japan. On Aug. 6, 2025, the company revealed plans to launch a Bitcoin-XRP dual ETF and a gold-crypto ETF structure. 

At the time, SBI said discussions with authorities were ongoing and that these plans depended on regulatory approval. 

On Jan. 5, Japan sent a clear welcome signal to digital assets through remarks by its Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama. In a speech, Katayama said that Japan must also push advanced fintech initiatives, citing ETFs being used as inflation hedges in the US.  

“In the US, crypto assets are increasingly used via ETFs as inflation hedges, and Japan must also pursue advanced fintech initiatives,” she said in an English translation of the speech. 

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao has ruled out returning to the crypto exchange, despite a pardon from US President Donald Trump opening the door for it to be possible.  

Zhao told CNBC’s Squawk Box on Sunday that it’s his understanding that the pardon means the former restrictions “are completely lifted,” but shot down any suggestions of going back to Binance.

“I haven't really needed to go back. I didn't really want to. I thought it was a pretty good way for me to step down, away from Binance after seven years,” he said.  

“At the time, it was very painful. I didn't like it. But after, you get used to it. I don't think it's good for me to go back. I think we should leave room for other strong leaders to grow,” Zhao added. 

A candid conversation from Davos - on prison, pardon, and what freedom means going forward.

Full interview on @CNBC with @andrewrsorkin. Focused on building what’s next. pic.twitter.com/x94llJFac2

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) January 25, 2026

Zhao pleaded guilty in November 2023 to failing to maintain an effective Anti–Money Laundering program at Binance and was later sentenced to four months in prison along with being prohibited from working at the exchange.

Trump pardoned Zhao in October, which drew scrutiny from some US lawmakers over Binance’s ties to Trump-linked crypto ventures, but Trump denied knowing who Zhao was.

Binance doesn’t need a “backseat driver”

Zhao said that Binance hasn’t missed a beat since he stepped down, with “two capable CEOs” at the helm, and increases to several growth metrics, including users and market share.

In a December open letter last year, the exchanges' leadership, Richard Teng and Zhao’s long-term partner, Yi He, announced the Binance user base had climbed to over 300 million, and the total product trading volume for the year was $34 trillion.

“I just thought, look; they don't need a backseat driver today. I'm still a shareholder,” Zhao said, adding that he is “just a pretty passive shareholder, and today when I want to give them advice, I just write it on Twitter.”

Bitcoin super cycle on the cards for 2026

Coming into the new year, crypto prices and sentiment have been in decline. However, Zhao predicts Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a super cycle in the next 12 months, and along with others in the space, has speculated its four-year cycle might be dead.

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.72B in five-day outflow streak

In economics, a supercycle is an extended period of outsized growth, indicating a major shift underpinned by strong fundamentals over many years, according to CoinMarketCap.

“Normally, Bitcoin follows four-year cycles, if you look at historic data every four years there's an all-time high, and then there's a drop,” Zhao explained. “But I think this year, given the US being so pro crypto and every other country is kind of following, I do think we will see this; we will probably break the four-year cycle.”

Magazine: A ‘tsunami’ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansen’s Alex Svanevik

The UK’s financial watchdog is entering the final stages of its consultation process for a host of key proposed crypto regulations as the agency continues to work on the government’s crypto roadmap. 

The Financial Conduct Authority said on Friday that it is now seeking feedback on 10 crypto regulatory proposals, marking the “final step” of its consultations on potential rules for the sector.

“These proposals continue our progress towards an open, sustainable and competitive crypto market that people can trust,” the FCA said. 

“At the same time, risks remain, and we want a market where innovation can thrive, but where people understand the risks. But regulation can’t — and shouldn’t try — to get rid of all risk. We want those interested in investing in crypto to understand that risk.” 

The FCA’s crypto proposals cover a range of aspects of the market, including business standards of conduct, credit-based crypto purchases, regulatory reporting, asset safeguarding, and retail collateral treatment for borrowing crypto, among other things. The deadline for feedback has been set for March 12.

This package of proposals was initially outlined in December, with the FCA expressing an intent to regulate the crypto market similarly to traditional finance. 

Package of rules up for consultation. Source: FCA

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The FCA stated it has made “significant progress” in ironing out the regulatory details as part of the government’s roadmap. Earlier this month, the FCA announced a timeline for crypto asset service providers to register as part of its new licensing regime.

“We expect the application period will open in September 2026,” the FCA noted, adding that the timeline will be confirmed in due course.

The licensing regime puts tighter oversight and constraints on crypto firms, and requires them to have FCA authorization to operate in the UK. 

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