CryptoChan
Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analysis，比特币链上行情分析 || 不收费，无投资理财建议 || X：@0xCryptoChan
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Let’s take a look at two pieces of data from the Bitcoin market value to realized market value ratio indicator (#Bitcoin: Market Value to Realized Value Ratio) in different periods (the two pieces of data started from the day when Bitcoin production was halved in 2016/20 respectively).
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
At this moment, #BTC will explode in the next 1-4 months.
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The mouth is tightening (Bitcoin realized profits have decreased & realized losses have increased)
The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"
This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.
In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.
Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.
The top indicator in the chart is the BTC price
The middle indicator in the chart is Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) and Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA)
The bottom indicator in the chart is the ratio of Bitcoin realized profits (365-day MA) to Bitcoin realized losses (365-day MA), which is the "realized profit-loss ratio (365-day MA)"
This ratio reflects the overall profit and loss status of market participants by comparing the moving average of realized profits (the part where the selling price is higher than the buying price) and losses (the part where the selling price is lower than the buying price) over the past 365 days.
In a bull market, the profit-loss ratio is usually high because investors tend to take profits at high prices.
In a bear market, this ratio is usually low because investors may sell at a loss, reflecting market panic or capitulation behavior.
Using the 365-day moving average smooths short-term fluctuations and highlights long-term trends. This indicator is suitable for determining whether the market is in a state of overheating (high ratio) or excessive panic (low ratio), and is a powerful tool for judging market cycles and trends.
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【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (17)】
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
The peak value of this indicator in June 2015 differs from the peak value of this indicator in March 2019 by 1385 days.
The peak value of this indicator in March 2019 differs from the peak value of this indicator in January 2023 by 1380 days.
The peak value of this indicator has passed 1068 days since January 2023.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the BTC price; the indicators at the bottom are the ratio of the "on-chain long-term holders' average purchase price" to the "on-chain short-term holders' average purchase price."
CryptoChan
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (16)】
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
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The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR indicator has dipped to the low point of this bull market
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR stands for Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is the ratio of profits realized by long-term holders who have spent their outputs. It is an on-chain Bitcoin metric that calculates the profit ratio of addresses (defined as long-term holders) that have held for more than 155 days when they sell Bitcoin. Specifically, this indicator assesses the ratio of the selling price of these long-held coins to their original acquisition price: if LTH-SOPR is greater than 1, it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a profit; equal to 1 indicates a break-even; and less than 1 indicates a loss on sale.
This indicator reflects the market behavior of long-term holders and the overall market sentiment. For example, when LTH-SOPR is high, it may suggest that long-term holders are locking in profits, implying that the market may be at the peak of a bull market or in an overheated phase; conversely, when it is low (especially below 1), it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which may signal the market bottom or the end of a bear market, thus helping investors determine potential buying or selling opportunities.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR stands for Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio, which is the ratio of profits realized by long-term holders who have spent their outputs. It is an on-chain Bitcoin metric that calculates the profit ratio of addresses (defined as long-term holders) that have held for more than 155 days when they sell Bitcoin. Specifically, this indicator assesses the ratio of the selling price of these long-held coins to their original acquisition price: if LTH-SOPR is greater than 1, it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a profit; equal to 1 indicates a break-even; and less than 1 indicates a loss on sale.
This indicator reflects the market behavior of long-term holders and the overall market sentiment. For example, when LTH-SOPR is high, it may suggest that long-term holders are locking in profits, implying that the market may be at the peak of a bull market or in an overheated phase; conversely, when it is low (especially below 1), it indicates that long-term holders are selling at a loss, which may signal the market bottom or the end of a bear market, thus helping investors determine potential buying or selling opportunities.
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Reviewing the significant drop below the lower bound of the Bitcoin SSR indicator after each cycle's peak in history
Is this the first wave?👀
Is this the first wave?👀
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The premium level of put options in the BTC options market (6-month expiration) has soared to the level seen during the 2022 Luna crisis.
This may indicate that the current market is experiencing heightened panic regarding a continued downward bear trend and demand for downside protection (reaching the level of the Luna crisis).
This may indicate that the current market is experiencing heightened panic regarding a continued downward bear trend and demand for downside protection (reaching the level of the Luna crisis).
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【BTC Classic Five-Line Chart】Updated, Current——
Line 1: $46,390
Line 2: $68,952
Line 3: $102,795
Line 4: $159,201
Line 5: $249,449
Line 1: $46,390
Line 2: $68,952
Line 3: $102,795
Line 4: $159,201
Line 5: $249,449
CryptoChan
--
Don't panic, Line3's big support is still there, and my great BTC has its own cycle here😎
The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
The picture shows a set of Bitcoin price cycle models, which are designed based on on-chain data such as Coin Days Destroyed, total circulation (Liquid Supply), and realized price (Realized Price). 5 lines are used to completely divide the entire historical coin price from the top to the bottom.
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BTC dropping to the 'True Market Mean Price' often signifies a significant clearing of speculative bubbles.
The result of the bubble clearing makes it even more uncertain whether the market will trend bullish or bearish.
What can currently be expected is a period of consolidation + a potential decent rebound.
Note:
True Market Mean Price (真实市场成本价) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin, primarily used to assess the average cost of buying Bitcoin for active market participants.
It focuses on the Bitcoin that is actually traded and circulated in the secondary market by excluding the Bitcoin produced by miners (i.e., ignoring the impact of mining activities), helping to identify whether the market is in a state of 'overvaluation' (price significantly above TMMP, indicating a speculative bubble) or 'undervaluation' (price below TMMP, presenting potential buying opportunities).
The result of the bubble clearing makes it even more uncertain whether the market will trend bullish or bearish.
What can currently be expected is a period of consolidation + a potential decent rebound.
Note:
True Market Mean Price (真实市场成本价) is an on-chain metric for Bitcoin, primarily used to assess the average cost of buying Bitcoin for active market participants.
It focuses on the Bitcoin that is actually traded and circulated in the secondary market by excluding the Bitcoin produced by miners (i.e., ignoring the impact of mining activities), helping to identify whether the market is in a state of 'overvaluation' (price significantly above TMMP, indicating a speculative bubble) or 'undervaluation' (price below TMMP, presenting potential buying opportunities).
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Brothers, 80,000 small ones have come in, meow 😼
CryptoChan
--
Damn! I'm really done with this $81,839 (spot order), I got it in 3 hours 😂, the spot is fully loaded brothers 😂
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Ethereum can always create a higher coin price and a lower floating profit multiple for holders, forming a 'double top'.
The indicator at the top of the chart is the ETH price; the indicator at the bottom is ETH: MVRV (MVRV = Market Value/Cost, reflecting the current floating profit/loss level of all network holders.)
The indicator at the top of the chart is the ETH price; the indicator at the bottom is ETH: MVRV (MVRV = Market Value/Cost, reflecting the current floating profit/loss level of all network holders.)
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Damn! I'm really done with this $81,839 (spot order), I got it in 3 hours 😂, the spot is fully loaded brothers 😂
CryptoChan
--
On November 21, 2025, the personal trading system shows BTC $81,839 available for spot trading without leverage (the $81,839 is the dynamic bottom value generated by the personal trading system, which changes daily, and it is expected that this dynamic bottom value will continue to slightly decline over the next few days).
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
See original
On November 21, 2025, the personal trading system shows BTC $81,839 available for spot trading without leverage (the $81,839 is the dynamic bottom value generated by the personal trading system, which changes daily, and it is expected that this dynamic bottom value will continue to slightly decline over the next few days).
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
The current judgment for spot trading without leverage does not represent a long-term bullish or bearish outlook; it merely indicates the current stage bottom, with a focus on a mid-term rebound around $100,000, expected around late February to early March 2026 (it is currently impossible to determine whether the market will move bullish or bearish after the rebound).
The above is purely a personal opinion, DYOR NFA.
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[BTC Indicator Update] Strongly inserting chips into thin zones and squeezing in a little 😎
CryptoChan
--
BTC breaks below $90,000, many people have been breached...
Yesterday, many bulls in the social circle had their hearts broken, and even a giant whale accurately sold at the lowest point of over $89,000 (I don't understand, but I was greatly shocked.GIF🐶)
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
See original
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (16)】
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
Previous round coin price above total of 1136 days
Last round coin price above total of 1143 days
This round coin price above total has been 988 days
The indicators in the figure are BTC price and BTC: Realized Price (modified, excluding coins held for more than 7 years from the calculation), coin price > Realized Price is counted as above
BTC: Realized Price is an on-chain indicator that excludes those bitcoins held for more than 7 years when calculating (these coins are often seen as very long-term holdings, lost, or inactive supply, and will not easily enter market circulation)
This indicator reflects the average buying price of chips. Specifically, it represents the average cost price of relatively more active market participants (those holding coins for less than 7 years), which can better capture current market dynamics, potential selling pressure, and investor sentiment.
CryptoChan
--
【Four-Year Cycle Total Engraving Series (15)】
In June 2015, after this indicator peaked, it took 916 days to reach the bull peak.
In March 2019, after this indicator peaked, it took 954 days to reach the bull peak.
In January 2023, after this indicator peaked, it took 1002 days to reach $126k.
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the ratio of the "average purchase price of Bitcoin long-term holders" to the "average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders."
The average purchase price of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, typically referring to investors holding for more than 155 days) compared to short-term holders (STH, typically referring to investors holding for less than 155 days), expressed as (LTH Realized Price / STH Realized Price), mainly reflects the relative cost basis differences among different holder groups in the Bitcoin market, thereby revealing market cycle phases, investor sentiment, and potential reversal signals.
A lower ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is lower relative to short-term holders, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market or at the peak. At this time, short-term holders (often new entrants) buy at higher prices, leading to their higher cost basis, while long-term holders hold at lower costs. This situation reflects an overheated market, strong demand but insufficient supply, and may signal an impending price correction or a transition into a bear market, as new participants are likely to capitulate in price fluctuations.
A higher ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is higher relative to short-term holders, commonly seen at the bottoms of bear markets or in recovery stages. Short-term holders may buy at lower prices (for example, after panic selling), while long-term holders have a relatively higher cost basis (due to their earlier purchases). This reflects that market capitulation behavior is occurring, with recent participants realizing losses, and the market may enter an accumulation phase, signaling a potential upward reversal until prices exceed the cost of short-term holders or long-term holder groups adjust.
Changes in LTH/STH can serve as indicators for assessing market health and the distribution of holder behavior, helping to determine whether one is in a state of excessive optimism or panic.
In June 2015, after this indicator peaked, it took 916 days to reach the bull peak.
In March 2019, after this indicator peaked, it took 954 days to reach the bull peak.
In January 2023, after this indicator peaked, it took 1002 days to reach $126k.
The black line in the chart represents the BTC price; the blue line represents the ratio of the "average purchase price of Bitcoin long-term holders" to the "average purchase price of Bitcoin short-term holders."
The average purchase price of long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH, typically referring to investors holding for more than 155 days) compared to short-term holders (STH, typically referring to investors holding for less than 155 days), expressed as (LTH Realized Price / STH Realized Price), mainly reflects the relative cost basis differences among different holder groups in the Bitcoin market, thereby revealing market cycle phases, investor sentiment, and potential reversal signals.
A lower ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is lower relative to short-term holders, which usually occurs in the later stages of a bull market or at the peak. At this time, short-term holders (often new entrants) buy at higher prices, leading to their higher cost basis, while long-term holders hold at lower costs. This situation reflects an overheated market, strong demand but insufficient supply, and may signal an impending price correction or a transition into a bear market, as new participants are likely to capitulate in price fluctuations.
A higher ratio: Indicates that the average cost of long-term holders is higher relative to short-term holders, commonly seen at the bottoms of bear markets or in recovery stages. Short-term holders may buy at lower prices (for example, after panic selling), while long-term holders have a relatively higher cost basis (due to their earlier purchases). This reflects that market capitulation behavior is occurring, with recent participants realizing losses, and the market may enter an accumulation phase, signaling a potential upward reversal until prices exceed the cost of short-term holders or long-term holder groups adjust.
Changes in LTH/STH can serve as indicators for assessing market health and the distribution of holder behavior, helping to determine whether one is in a state of excessive optimism or panic.
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In the first half of 21, BTC's top range was slightly preempted, and still preempted four years later. One can't help but admire the instincts of Wall Street 🥸
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BTC breaks below $90,000, many people have been breached...
Yesterday, many bulls in the social circle had their hearts broken, and even a giant whale accurately sold at the lowest point of over $89,000 (I don't understand, but I was greatly shocked.GIF🐶)
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
The situation of being unable to hold on-chain is also quite strong, but there are those who can't hold on and sell at a loss, as well as those who can't hold on and take profits
Since the price of the coin broke below $100,000, those who continue to sell at a loss need not be mentioned👇
It is worth noting that the on-chain profits remained relatively restrained during the process of the coin price breaking below $100,000, but after the price broke below $90,000, there was a slight breach as well. As shown in the figure below, after the price broke below $90,000, the on-chain holdings for less than 3 years showed a higher profit-taking amount👇
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Continuing to patiently wait for a better entry opportunity is a suitable choice for the near future.
Recently, the number of chips held by long-term holders (holding coins for approximately more than six months) has declined synchronously with the #BTC price, which is an atypical situation 👇
Generally speaking, long-term holders often sell off profits during the price increase due to substantial floating profits and choose to remain dormant during the price decline.
Let's analyze which long-term holders are still selling during the decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Investors holding coins on-chain for 3-5 years recently experienced a single-day sell-off of $4.37 billion, but this is likely the action of a single entity and not representative of the broader trend (this image is omitted due to the limit on the number of inserted images).
Generally speaking, long-term holders often sell off profits during the price increase due to substantial floating profits and choose to remain dormant during the price decline.
Let's analyze which long-term holders are still selling during the decline in cryptocurrency prices.
Investors holding coins on-chain for 3-5 years recently experienced a single-day sell-off of $4.37 billion, but this is likely the action of a single entity and not representative of the broader trend (this image is omitted due to the limit on the number of inserted images).
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Current BTC chain short-term investors' daily liquidation amount has reached a relatively high peak
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【Final Bull Top Carving Update】Continue perfectly, continue to be麻！😎
CryptoChan
--
"Bottom callback at the end of June" carved
"Mid-August stage top" carved
"Bottom callback at the end of August - beginning of September" carved
"Final bull top from mid-September to mid-October" or also carved
This round is complete, carving finished!😎
"Mid-August stage top" carved
"Bottom callback at the end of August - beginning of September" carved
"Final bull top from mid-September to mid-October" or also carved
This round is complete, carving finished!😎
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