小龙先生
自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 、链上数据 和量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。
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带你一起穿越牛熊，看懂比特币未来一年的价格走势！@
欢迎来到穿越牛熊的洞察之旅！在比特币世界，价格的风暴从未停息——就在这两天，比特币价格以惊人的速度暴跌至6万美元，远超许多人的预期。你是否也在思考：底部究竟在哪里？牛市何时归来？本文将带你深入复盘近期走势，从资金流向、多空博弈到市场情绪，层层拆解未来一年关键节点。无论市场如何波动，真正的机会永远留给有准备的人。让我们一起推开迷雾，看清前路，不仅学会在熊市中生存，更蓄力迎接下一轮牛市盛宴！
1、回顾最近的比特币行情分析和走势推演
我在2月5日时发表了《看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演，让你提前抓住赚钱机会！》的文章，（链接如下：）
预判比特币跌到5.8万的概率很高， 因为周线级别的斐波拉契的0.618位置属于强引力位，会牵引价格最终跌至 5.8万附近。我本以为：比特币这波跌破8万的下跌趋势行情，先跌至7万上下，然后会有一波1万点左右反弹行情；我还说“比特币价格不会直线下跌至5.8万，而是展现出退二进一的震荡下跌方式完成底部的下探。”
但是，实际的比特币价格走势的结果，让我感到特别震惊的！今天的东八区早上八点，比特币价格就已经快速地以几乎直线下跌的方式跌到了6万美金，跟预判的5.8万相差2000点。价格下跌的速度大大超出预期。本来预计比特币要震荡一个月后才会下跌至 5.8万附近，结果它两天时间内就达成了这个目标价。市场变化之快，让人瞠目结舌，叹为观止。我自己也是一路做空比特币，也获得了一笔小小的成绩。但因为误判了比特币下跌的速度，导致自己在6.95万附近平仓了BTC/ETH/BNB的空单，从而错失了空单的部分利润空间。
我在《看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演，让你提前抓住赚钱机会！》的文章里，提到“市场真正的大底部有可能诞生在5.8万附近，极端的情况下才会跌至 0.786位置即4万附近。我目前无法给出准确的市场大底部是 5.8万 还是4万，需要等到 BTC跌至 5.8万后，从ETF机构资金流向、多空量能强弱、订单薄的委托买盘金额数据综合分析才能给出预判。”
现在，比特币已跌至5.8万上方即跌到6万就止跌企稳并开始一波反弹行情，那么，我接下来会从资金流向、多空量能、市场情绪等多方面分析和预判比特币未来半年的价格走势，让看到这篇文章的小伙伴们能够抓住比特币价一些关键的位和赚钱的机会，即使熊市也能赚到钱，甚至在未来的半年里，可以穿越牛熊，拥抱一年后的牛市。
2、展望未来一年行情，牛熊交替关键节点
1）现货ETF机构资金流向
ETF机构最近三个月都是保持资金净流出的状态，这两天比特币快速下跌，ETF机构依然是减持比特币的主力军，昨天净流出5.45亿美金，今天净流出4.34亿美金。从最近两年的资金流向来看，比特币价格疯狂上涨至顶部的时候，ETF机构资金净流入越大；相反，等到有一天，比特币快速暴跌并插针到真正市场底部价位的时候，则是ETF机构资金净流出较大金额的一天。成也ETF，败也ETF。我们可以简单地认为，ETF机构是助涨助跌的比特币大号韭菜机构。目前比特币处于熊市中后阶段和中线下跌趋势，毋庸置疑，未来的几个月里，ETF机构依然会选择不断减持比特币，助推比特币跌至更低的底部价位。
2）比特币多空量能强弱
1011的瀑布暴跌，出现一根四小时级别的空头的主量能，掀开了比特币的中线下跌趋势行情；今天早上八点，多头在六万价位进场抄底，出现了一根多头的主量能，这大概率会掀起一波反弹行情，但这根多头的主量能只有1011那天的空头主量能的三分之二，因此，比特币从六万价位启动的反弹行情，并非反转行情，不会改变中线的下跌趋势，反弹结束后，比特币价格大概率将继续下跌探底，甚至创新低。
3）市场情绪和大众反应
最新的恐惧&贪婪指数为10，也就是市场情绪处于极度恐慌的状态，但是，大众和机构是否处于濒临绝望的状态？这轮熊市是否已经出现了机构暴雷或被清算爆仓的黑天鹅事件？目前市场既没有呈现绝望的情绪，也未出现机构暴雷或被清算的事件。从推特的主流意见来看，部分散户依然对六万价格的比特币表现出积极抄底的热情。所以，熊市还未进入真正的严寒地带和让人绝望的地步，也就意味着比特币的价格还未跌至最终的熊市底部。
4）比特币价格走势推演
以史为镜，可以知兴替；以人为镜，可以明得失。我们先来看看历年来熊市的比特币价格跌幅和持续时间的列表图：
从这张图里，我们看到，前面三轮的熊市，比特币价格跌幅都超过了75%，持续时间都在12个月以上。而当下的这轮熊市，比特币从高点12.7万跌至今天的低点6万，跌幅约为 -52.5%，持续时间为120天即4个月，这与以往的熊市里的比特币跌幅和持续时间相差甚远。这些数据说明，当下的熊市，比特币价格还远未跌到真正的市场底部价位，熊市还在进行中，处于中后期阶段。
我们从波浪理论和周线级别的斐波拉契回撤来看，比特币的下跌呈现五浪的下跌模式，跌至六万是跌到了斐波拉契回撤的0.618位置，这里有很强的引力作用和支撑作用，将开始一波反弹行情，即五浪中的第4浪反弹浪。预估反弹的第一目标价在6.8万附近，第二目标价在7.45万附近。反弹结束后，比特币价格将继续下跌探底，开启第5浪的下跌浪，预估比较大的概率将跌至斐波拉契回撤的 0.786位置即 3.8万-4万区间。如果比特币价格最终跌至 3.8万，那么跌幅为 -70%；如果按照历年来的熊市持续时间12个月来计算，这轮熊市将在2026年10月5号左右结束，也就是说，比特币的真正市场底部价格，理论上可能出现在今年的10月份前后。
3、努力积累本金和经验，迎接牛市行情
熊市并不可怕，可怕的是熊市里把最后的本金都折腾完了亏完了，牛市启动之际，我们却没有本金来参与牛市的盛宴。所以，熊市的中后程阶段，我们应该努力积攒本金，积累经验，为2026年末的牛市启动初始阶段和2027年-2028年的牛市疯狂行情做好充分的准备。沉舟侧畔千帆过，病树前头万木春。熬过熊市，努力在币圈活下来，我们才能有机会有资本迎接来年的牛市行情。
我是小龙先生，自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 + 链上数据 + 量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。
以上BTC的行情分析和走势推演非投资建议，仅供参考。如果你觉得这篇文章不错，请关注我和转发这篇文章。感恩遇见，谢谢你的阅读！
1、回顾最近的比特币行情分析和走势推演
我在2月5日时发表了《看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演，让你提前抓住赚钱机会！》的文章，（链接如下：）
预判比特币跌到5.8万的概率很高， 因为周线级别的斐波拉契的0.618位置属于强引力位，会牵引价格最终跌至 5.8万附近。我本以为：比特币这波跌破8万的下跌趋势行情，先跌至7万上下，然后会有一波1万点左右反弹行情；我还说“比特币价格不会直线下跌至5.8万，而是展现出退二进一的震荡下跌方式完成底部的下探。”
但是，实际的比特币价格走势的结果，让我感到特别震惊的！今天的东八区早上八点，比特币价格就已经快速地以几乎直线下跌的方式跌到了6万美金，跟预判的5.8万相差2000点。价格下跌的速度大大超出预期。本来预计比特币要震荡一个月后才会下跌至 5.8万附近，结果它两天时间内就达成了这个目标价。市场变化之快，让人瞠目结舌，叹为观止。我自己也是一路做空比特币，也获得了一笔小小的成绩。但因为误判了比特币下跌的速度，导致自己在6.95万附近平仓了BTC/ETH/BNB的空单，从而错失了空单的部分利润空间。
我在《看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演，让你提前抓住赚钱机会！》的文章里，提到“市场真正的大底部有可能诞生在5.8万附近，极端的情况下才会跌至 0.786位置即4万附近。我目前无法给出准确的市场大底部是 5.8万 还是4万，需要等到 BTC跌至 5.8万后，从ETF机构资金流向、多空量能强弱、订单薄的委托买盘金额数据综合分析才能给出预判。”
现在，比特币已跌至5.8万上方即跌到6万就止跌企稳并开始一波反弹行情，那么，我接下来会从资金流向、多空量能、市场情绪等多方面分析和预判比特币未来半年的价格走势，让看到这篇文章的小伙伴们能够抓住比特币价一些关键的位和赚钱的机会，即使熊市也能赚到钱，甚至在未来的半年里，可以穿越牛熊，拥抱一年后的牛市。
2、展望未来一年行情，牛熊交替关键节点
1）现货ETF机构资金流向
ETF机构最近三个月都是保持资金净流出的状态，这两天比特币快速下跌，ETF机构依然是减持比特币的主力军，昨天净流出5.45亿美金，今天净流出4.34亿美金。从最近两年的资金流向来看，比特币价格疯狂上涨至顶部的时候，ETF机构资金净流入越大；相反，等到有一天，比特币快速暴跌并插针到真正市场底部价位的时候，则是ETF机构资金净流出较大金额的一天。成也ETF，败也ETF。我们可以简单地认为，ETF机构是助涨助跌的比特币大号韭菜机构。目前比特币处于熊市中后阶段和中线下跌趋势，毋庸置疑，未来的几个月里，ETF机构依然会选择不断减持比特币，助推比特币跌至更低的底部价位。
2）比特币多空量能强弱
1011的瀑布暴跌，出现一根四小时级别的空头的主量能，掀开了比特币的中线下跌趋势行情；今天早上八点，多头在六万价位进场抄底，出现了一根多头的主量能，这大概率会掀起一波反弹行情，但这根多头的主量能只有1011那天的空头主量能的三分之二，因此，比特币从六万价位启动的反弹行情，并非反转行情，不会改变中线的下跌趋势，反弹结束后，比特币价格大概率将继续下跌探底，甚至创新低。
3）市场情绪和大众反应
最新的恐惧&贪婪指数为10，也就是市场情绪处于极度恐慌的状态，但是，大众和机构是否处于濒临绝望的状态？这轮熊市是否已经出现了机构暴雷或被清算爆仓的黑天鹅事件？目前市场既没有呈现绝望的情绪，也未出现机构暴雷或被清算的事件。从推特的主流意见来看，部分散户依然对六万价格的比特币表现出积极抄底的热情。所以，熊市还未进入真正的严寒地带和让人绝望的地步，也就意味着比特币的价格还未跌至最终的熊市底部。
4）比特币价格走势推演
以史为镜，可以知兴替；以人为镜，可以明得失。我们先来看看历年来熊市的比特币价格跌幅和持续时间的列表图：
从这张图里，我们看到，前面三轮的熊市，比特币价格跌幅都超过了75%，持续时间都在12个月以上。而当下的这轮熊市，比特币从高点12.7万跌至今天的低点6万，跌幅约为 -52.5%，持续时间为120天即4个月，这与以往的熊市里的比特币跌幅和持续时间相差甚远。这些数据说明，当下的熊市，比特币价格还远未跌到真正的市场底部价位，熊市还在进行中，处于中后期阶段。
我们从波浪理论和周线级别的斐波拉契回撤来看，比特币的下跌呈现五浪的下跌模式，跌至六万是跌到了斐波拉契回撤的0.618位置，这里有很强的引力作用和支撑作用，将开始一波反弹行情，即五浪中的第4浪反弹浪。预估反弹的第一目标价在6.8万附近，第二目标价在7.45万附近。反弹结束后，比特币价格将继续下跌探底，开启第5浪的下跌浪，预估比较大的概率将跌至斐波拉契回撤的 0.786位置即 3.8万-4万区间。如果比特币价格最终跌至 3.8万，那么跌幅为 -70%；如果按照历年来的熊市持续时间12个月来计算，这轮熊市将在2026年10月5号左右结束，也就是说，比特币的真正市场底部价格，理论上可能出现在今年的10月份前后。
3、努力积累本金和经验，迎接牛市行情
熊市并不可怕，可怕的是熊市里把最后的本金都折腾完了亏完了，牛市启动之际，我们却没有本金来参与牛市的盛宴。所以，熊市的中后程阶段，我们应该努力积攒本金，积累经验，为2026年末的牛市启动初始阶段和2027年-2028年的牛市疯狂行情做好充分的准备。沉舟侧畔千帆过，病树前头万木春。熬过熊市，努力在币圈活下来，我们才能有机会有资本迎接来年的牛市行情。
我是小龙先生，自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 + 链上数据 + 量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。
以上BTC的行情分析和走势推演非投资建议，仅供参考。如果你觉得这篇文章不错，请关注我和转发这篇文章。感恩遇见，谢谢你的阅读！
BTC has dropped from 80,000 to 60,000, experiencing a continuous and rapid decline, which is sure to lead to a quick rebound.
Based on the currently strong bullish momentum over the last four hours, the likelihood of a final rebound to around 74,500 is very high! Once the rebound is complete, there will be another deep and significant drop, leading to market despair, with a large number of users' positions being liquidated and institutions facing massive losses.
The most desperate and terrifying crash in the market has not yet arrived, but it will ultimately come! The true bottom for BTC is around 38,000-40,000.
Based on the currently strong bullish momentum over the last four hours, the likelihood of a final rebound to around 74,500 is very high! Once the rebound is complete, there will be another deep and significant drop, leading to market despair, with a large number of users' positions being liquidated and institutions facing massive losses.
The most desperate and terrifying crash in the market has not yet arrived, but it will ultimately come! The true bottom for BTC is around 38,000-40,000.
The oversold rebound of BTC has finally arrived!
On the weekly chart, BTC's price has dropped to near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, with a low of 60,000 and an expectation of 58,000, just 2,000 points apart.
On the daily chart, there is a divergence between BTC's volume and price, with the trading volume doubling compared to the volume on the day of 1011. This divergence indicates that the price is oversold, and a rebound trend is expected.
On the four-hour chart: Currently, it is a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and we need to see how it closes at twelve o'clock.
The first target price for the rebound is 68,000, and the second target price is 74,500. Once the rebound is complete, BTC will once again decline to test the bottom, with the next bottom expected to be around 40,000.
Pay attention to position control after the rebound is in place and the risks of another decline to test the bottom.
On the weekly chart, BTC's price has dropped to near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, with a low of 60,000 and an expectation of 58,000, just 2,000 points apart.
On the daily chart, there is a divergence between BTC's volume and price, with the trading volume doubling compared to the volume on the day of 1011. This divergence indicates that the price is oversold, and a rebound trend is expected.
On the four-hour chart: Currently, it is a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and we need to see how it closes at twelve o'clock.
The first target price for the rebound is 68,000, and the second target price is 74,500. Once the rebound is complete, BTC will once again decline to test the bottom, with the next bottom expected to be around 40,000.
Pay attention to position control after the rebound is in place and the risks of another decline to test the bottom.
The oversold rebound of BTC has finally arrived!
On the weekly chart, BTC's price has dropped to near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, with a low of 60,000 and an expectation of 58,000, just 2,000 points apart.
On the daily chart, there is a divergence between BTC's volume and price, with the trading volume doubling compared to the volume on the day of 1011. This divergence indicates that the price is oversold, and a rebound trend is expected.
On the four-hour chart: Currently, it is a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and we need to see how it closes at twelve o'clock.
The first target price for the rebound is 68,000, and the second target price is 74,500. Once the rebound is complete, BTC will once again decline to test the bottom, with the next bottom expected to be around 40,000.
Pay attention to position control after the rebound is in place and the risks of another decline to test the bottom.
On the weekly chart, BTC's price has dropped to near the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, with a low of 60,000 and an expectation of 58,000, just 2,000 points apart.
On the daily chart, there is a divergence between BTC's volume and price, with the trading volume doubling compared to the volume on the day of 1011. This divergence indicates that the price is oversold, and a rebound trend is expected.
On the four-hour chart: Currently, it is a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, and we need to see how it closes at twelve o'clock.
The first target price for the rebound is 68,000, and the second target price is 74,500. Once the rebound is complete, BTC will once again decline to test the bottom, with the next bottom expected to be around 40,000.
Pay attention to position control after the rebound is in place and the risks of another decline to test the bottom.
The BTC rebound after a sharp decline has begun, with the first target price for the rebound estimated to be around 71,000, and the second target price around 75,800.
The speed and depth of this BTC drop exceeded expectations, and while a rebound was anticipated around 65,000, it actually fell sharply to around 62,500. Moving forward, BTC is likely to experience a small-level rebound, with the following logic:
1) Daily price drop with increased volume, a divergence between volume and price, with trading volume nearly double that of the 1011 crash;
2) The four-hour chart shows a dominant bearish energy, with bears being absolutely strong, limiting the height of the rebound, and further declines are expected;
3) There is a buildup of order book buy orders, but some orders have been canceled, so the overall buy order amount is not considered excessively large;
4) ETF institutions have become the main force in market sell-offs, while retail investors are buying the dip; therefore, as BTC rebounds, it is estimated that ETF institutions will continue to offload, as ETFs are the big players, buying high and selling low, and they move faster than anyone else.
Personally, I predict that a rebound to 71,000 for BTC would be good; if it can rebound to around 75,800, that would be beyond expectations. This is a dead cat bounce, and once the rebound is completed, further declines are still expected. It is estimated that BTC prices will drop to around 58,000 before a significant rebound occurs. Now, buying the dip can only be short-term trading, entering and exiting positions, as there will be further significant declines ahead.
For truly bottoming out BTC, there is no need to rush; there will be plenty of time and opportunities to buy BTC starting with a 5, and it might even be possible to buy BTC around 40,000.
The speed and depth of this BTC drop exceeded expectations, and while a rebound was anticipated around 65,000, it actually fell sharply to around 62,500. Moving forward, BTC is likely to experience a small-level rebound, with the following logic:
1) Daily price drop with increased volume, a divergence between volume and price, with trading volume nearly double that of the 1011 crash;
2) The four-hour chart shows a dominant bearish energy, with bears being absolutely strong, limiting the height of the rebound, and further declines are expected;
3) There is a buildup of order book buy orders, but some orders have been canceled, so the overall buy order amount is not considered excessively large;
4) ETF institutions have become the main force in market sell-offs, while retail investors are buying the dip; therefore, as BTC rebounds, it is estimated that ETF institutions will continue to offload, as ETFs are the big players, buying high and selling low, and they move faster than anyone else.
Personally, I predict that a rebound to 71,000 for BTC would be good; if it can rebound to around 75,800, that would be beyond expectations. This is a dead cat bounce, and once the rebound is completed, further declines are still expected. It is estimated that BTC prices will drop to around 58,000 before a significant rebound occurs. Now, buying the dip can only be short-term trading, entering and exiting positions, as there will be further significant declines ahead.
For truly bottoming out BTC, there is no need to rush; there will be plenty of time and opportunities to buy BTC starting with a 5, and it might even be possible to buy BTC around 40,000.
BTC has fallen to above 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound!\nThe logic is as follows:\n\n1) BTC has dropped to around 65,000, and the current daily trading volume has exceeded the 1011 crash and the daily trading volume when it fell to 80,000. Currently, the BTC price shows a divergence between volume and price and is severely oversold; see Figure 1.\n\n2) The opinions of retail investors are very consistent: BTC will continue to drop straight down, and they will continue to short BTC. When the consensus among the public is high, the actual market trend is often the opposite.\n\n3) The amount of buy orders on the BTC order book is continuously accumulating, and the amount is getting larger, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market; see Figure 2.\n\nTherefore, I predict that BTC will fall to around 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound. BTC will bounce back up, and only then can it fall more violently and deeply!\n\nOf course, the less probable scenario is: BTC falls straight to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, which is around 58,000, before a larger rebound occurs.\n\nWe can patiently wait for 8 AM in the UTC+8 time zone, and after the daily close, we will look at the trading volume and bullish momentum to decide whether to enter for short-term trading.
BTC has fallen to above 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound!\nThe logic is as follows:\n\n1) BTC has dropped to around 65,000, and the current daily trading volume has exceeded the 1011 crash and the daily trading volume when it fell to 80,000. Currently, the BTC price shows a divergence between volume and price and is severely oversold; see Figure 1.\n\n2) The opinions of retail investors are very consistent: BTC will continue to drop straight down, and they will continue to short BTC. When the consensus among the public is high, the actual market trend is often the opposite.\n\n3) The amount of buy orders on the BTC order book is continuously accumulating, and the amount is getting larger, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market; see Figure 2.\n\nTherefore, I predict that BTC will fall to around 65,000, and there is a high probability of a rebound. BTC will bounce back up, and only then can it fall more violently and deeply!\n\nOf course, the less probable scenario is: BTC falls straight to the Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618, which is around 58,000, before a larger rebound occurs.\n\nWe can patiently wait for 8 AM in the UTC+8 time zone, and after the daily close, we will look at the trading volume and bullish momentum to decide whether to enter for short-term trading.
Thank you, Ying Ge! Thank you, Binance Square, thank you, Binance!
@币安广场
@币安广场
币安广场
·
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February 5th winners have been announced!
@小龙先生 : 看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演
@Yuki Rabbit : 凉兮狠话：ETH要砸到1000爆易理华仓位，这事儿有几成真？
@小焕很宅 : 去年ASTER 在2U以上的时候，其实就已经定好1U以下分批建仓的计划。
@0xXIAOc : Alpha日报
@0xMay : OpenClaw 保姆级部署安装教程
@小龙先生 : 看懂比特币未来三四个月的价格走势推演
@Yuki Rabbit : 凉兮狠话：ETH要砸到1000爆易理华仓位，这事儿有几成真？
@小焕很宅 : 去年ASTER 在2U以上的时候，其实就已经定好1U以下分批建仓的计划。
@0xXIAOc : Alpha日报
@0xMay : OpenClaw 保姆级部署安装教程
Today BTC rapidly fell below the 70,000 mark, with the current price fluctuating around 67,000. The ETF institutions have been selling BTC too aggressively. Therefore, I am more confident in my two bold predictions in the crypto circle below. I believe the probability of these two bold predictions coming true is as high as 80%,
Bold Prediction One: This round of bear market cycle will last about 400 days, with a significant bottom expected to appear around mid-November this year, and the price is extremely close to 40,000.
Bold Prediction Two: In this bear market, the ETH price will spike down to around 1,000, and the long positions of some ETH institutions will eventually be liquidated in this bear market.
This post serves as evidence! Let time provide the answer.
Bold Prediction One: This round of bear market cycle will last about 400 days, with a significant bottom expected to appear around mid-November this year, and the price is extremely close to 40,000.
Bold Prediction Two: In this bear market, the ETH price will spike down to around 1,000, and the long positions of some ETH institutions will eventually be liquidated in this bear market.
This post serves as evidence! Let time provide the answer.
I will make a few bold predictions about the cryptocurrency market:
1) If this bear market lasts around 400 days, the real bottom of the market will be reached around mid-November, and this bottom price may be around 40,000 in extreme cases. This is the first bold prediction. My previous prediction of the market bottom at 58,000 is my more conservative and stable estimate.
2) In early January 2027, a new bull market will quietly start, and BTC's subsequent target price will reach new highs, even hitting around 200,000 USD. This is the second bold prediction.
3) In this bear market, I believe that the price of ETH is likely to drop to around 1,200, or even spike down to around 1,000. If Boss Yi's fund does not timely supplement margin or fails to liquidate part of the ETH in time, it may eventually face liquidation as a sacrifice in this bear market. Now let’s make the third bold prediction: some long positions in ETH funds will ultimately be liquidated in this bear market.
Before the new bull market starts in early 2027, what we need to do is to survive well in this bear market and accumulate more capital.
1) If this bear market lasts around 400 days, the real bottom of the market will be reached around mid-November, and this bottom price may be around 40,000 in extreme cases. This is the first bold prediction. My previous prediction of the market bottom at 58,000 is my more conservative and stable estimate.
2) In early January 2027, a new bull market will quietly start, and BTC's subsequent target price will reach new highs, even hitting around 200,000 USD. This is the second bold prediction.
3) In this bear market, I believe that the price of ETH is likely to drop to around 1,200, or even spike down to around 1,000. If Boss Yi's fund does not timely supplement margin or fails to liquidate part of the ETH in time, it may eventually face liquidation as a sacrifice in this bear market. Now let’s make the third bold prediction: some long positions in ETH funds will ultimately be liquidated in this bear market.
Before the new bull market starts in early 2027, what we need to do is to survive well in this bear market and accumulate more capital.
Has BTC reached a temporary bottom?
1) The daily chart shows a downtrend, and while there hasn't been a significant volume spike, it is approaching the densely traded area near 68,000;
2) The order book is starting to show large buy orders, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market;
3) On the four-hour chart, there is still no sign of bullish volume or absolute strength from the bulls;
Based on the large buy orders in the order book, a temporary bottom is likely approaching, estimated around 68,000, just waiting for bullish signals. I believe that if Bitcoin drops to around 68,000, we will see a significant rebound, with an estimated peak around 80,000.
Friends, be prepared to enter for short-term bottom-fishing of BTC or to take small positions to go long on BTC.
1) The daily chart shows a downtrend, and while there hasn't been a significant volume spike, it is approaching the densely traded area near 68,000;
2) The order book is starting to show large buy orders, indicating that bottom-fishing is entering the market;
3) On the four-hour chart, there is still no sign of bullish volume or absolute strength from the bulls;
Based on the large buy orders in the order book, a temporary bottom is likely approaching, estimated around 68,000, just waiting for bullish signals. I believe that if Bitcoin drops to around 68,000, we will see a significant rebound, with an estimated peak around 80,000.
Friends, be prepared to enter for short-term bottom-fishing of BTC or to take small positions to go long on BTC.
I will make a few bold predictions about the cryptocurrency market:
1) If this bear market lasts around 400 days, the real bottom of the market will be reached around mid-November, and this bottom price may be around 40,000 in extreme cases. This is the first bold prediction. My previous prediction of the market bottom at 58,000 is my more conservative and stable estimate.
2) In early January 2027, a new bull market will quietly start, and BTC's subsequent target price will reach new highs, even hitting around 200,000 USD. This is the second bold prediction.
3) In this bear market, I believe that the price of ETH is likely to drop to around 1,200, or even spike down to around 1,000. If Boss Yi's fund does not timely supplement margin or fails to liquidate part of the ETH in time, it may eventually face liquidation as a sacrifice in this bear market. Now let’s make the third bold prediction: some long positions in ETH funds will ultimately be liquidated in this bear market.
Before the new bull market starts in early 2027, what we need to do is to survive well in this bear market and accumulate more capital.
1) If this bear market lasts around 400 days, the real bottom of the market will be reached around mid-November, and this bottom price may be around 40,000 in extreme cases. This is the first bold prediction. My previous prediction of the market bottom at 58,000 is my more conservative and stable estimate.
2) In early January 2027, a new bull market will quietly start, and BTC's subsequent target price will reach new highs, even hitting around 200,000 USD. This is the second bold prediction.
3) In this bear market, I believe that the price of ETH is likely to drop to around 1,200, or even spike down to around 1,000. If Boss Yi's fund does not timely supplement margin or fails to liquidate part of the ETH in time, it may eventually face liquidation as a sacrifice in this bear market. Now let’s make the third bold prediction: some long positions in ETH funds will ultimately be liquidated in this bear market.
Before the new bull market starts in early 2027, what we need to do is to survive well in this bear market and accumulate more capital.
Let me explain why the bottom of this bear market for Bitcoin will be 58,000?
I believe it is undeniable that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. Both retail investors and institutions are feeling panic over this bear market's downward trend. However, market sentiment has not yet reached a state of despair. Therefore, with the current Bitcoin price around 73,500, it is highly likely that this is not the true bottom of this bear market. I think the true bottom is very likely to be around 58,000. In extreme cases, it could drop to around 40,000, which would be the bottom price level, as per the following logic.
1) The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 from the major cycle of BTC, which dropped from 127,000 to 15,500, is a strong gravitational point and also a dense area of historical transactions, providing significant support.
1) The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 from the major cycle of BTC, which dropped from 127,000 to 15,500, is a strong gravitational point and also a dense area of historical transactions, providing significant support.
Where will BTC drop to in order to have a significant rebound?
Let's take a look at the price trend from three aspects:
1) Daily chart, no sign of a large volume spike or significant drop has been seen, still in a downtrend, no signs of stop loss or stabilization;
2) Order book, the amount of buy orders is very sparse, the lower the price, the less the buy orders, bulls are about to cry from the drop;
3) Weekly chart, dropping to the 70,000 transaction dense area, it may even drop to the previous high of 68,000, before there will be a decent rebound.
Therefore, patiently wait for BTC to drop sharply to around 70,000, at that time, bottom-buying will surge, and there is a high probability of a significant rebound, estimated rebound peak around 80,000.
However, this rebound also belongs to a dead cat bounce. Once the price rebounds, it is highly likely to continue to drop and create new lows, reaching around 58,000 is also a high probability event.
Let's take a look at the price trend from three aspects:
1) Daily chart, no sign of a large volume spike or significant drop has been seen, still in a downtrend, no signs of stop loss or stabilization;
2) Order book, the amount of buy orders is very sparse, the lower the price, the less the buy orders, bulls are about to cry from the drop;
3) Weekly chart, dropping to the 70,000 transaction dense area, it may even drop to the previous high of 68,000, before there will be a decent rebound.
Therefore, patiently wait for BTC to drop sharply to around 70,000, at that time, bottom-buying will surge, and there is a high probability of a significant rebound, estimated rebound peak around 80,000.
However, this rebound also belongs to a dead cat bounce. Once the price rebounds, it is highly likely to continue to drop and create new lows, reaching around 58,000 is also a high probability event.
Understanding the price trend prediction of Bitcoin for the next three to four months, allowing you to seize money-making opportunities in advance!
I tweeted on November 14, 2025, predicting the medium-term downward trend of BTC, analyzing the key price points for BTC's decline. For details, please see the prediction chart below, which is still very effective. This tweet received 280,000 likes.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
Let me explain why the bottom of this bear market for Bitcoin will be 58,000?
I believe it is undeniable that Bitcoin has entered a bear market. Both retail investors and institutions are feeling panic over this bear market's downward trend. However, market sentiment has not yet reached a state of despair. Therefore, with the current Bitcoin price around 73,500, it is highly likely that this is not the true bottom of this bear market. I think the true bottom is very likely to be around 58,000. In extreme cases, it could drop to around 40,000, which would be the bottom price level, as per the following logic.
1) The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 from the major cycle of BTC, which dropped from 127,000 to 15,500, is a strong gravitational point and also a dense area of historical transactions, providing significant support.
1) The Fibonacci retracement level of 0.618 from the major cycle of BTC, which dropped from 127,000 to 15,500, is a strong gravitational point and also a dense area of historical transactions, providing significant support.
The short position of BTC held personally is as follows. The set take-profit point is at 69500.
If the BTC price drops below 69500, this short position will automatically take profit, and then I will manually take profit from the ETH/BNB short positions.
I will operate contract trading according to the daily level BTC price trend projection chart published in the article "Understanding the Future Price Trends of Bitcoin Over the Next Three to Four Months, So You Can Seize Profit Opportunities in Advance!": If the short position at 69500 automatically takes profit, there will be a short-term rebound trend for going long. Then, I will make another short position in the medium term at the high point of the rebound.
Plans cannot keep up with changes, but we need to plan our trades and trade our plans.
If the BTC price drops below 69500, this short position will automatically take profit, and then I will manually take profit from the ETH/BNB short positions.
I will operate contract trading according to the daily level BTC price trend projection chart published in the article "Understanding the Future Price Trends of Bitcoin Over the Next Three to Four Months, So You Can Seize Profit Opportunities in Advance!": If the short position at 69500 automatically takes profit, there will be a short-term rebound trend for going long. Then, I will make another short position in the medium term at the high point of the rebound.
Plans cannot keep up with changes, but we need to plan our trades and trade our plans.
Understanding the price trend prediction of Bitcoin for the next three to four months, allowing you to seize money-making opportunities in advance!
I tweeted on November 14, 2025, predicting the medium-term downward trend of BTC, analyzing the key price points for BTC's decline. For details, please see the prediction chart below, which is still very effective. This tweet received 280,000 likes.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
Understanding the price trend prediction of Bitcoin for the next three to four months, allowing you to seize money-making opportunities in advance!
I tweeted on November 14, 2025, predicting the medium-term downward trend of BTC, analyzing the key price points for BTC's decline. For details, please see the prediction chart below, which is still very effective. This tweet received 280,000 likes.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
BTC trend prediction chart for November 14, 2025
Next, I want to take root and sprout in Binance Square, lighting a lamp of hope. I hope that through my professional analysis and predictions of BTC's market trends, I can help more friends understand the market in advance and seize trading opportunities for BTC trends, allowing everyone to make money. This is my original intention and wish.
The tweet content on January 15, 2026, at 1:24 AM:
"BTC is performing strongly, but the amount data on the order book quietly tells a probabilistic event:
BTC will face a downward adjustment below 98,000, with a support level around 94,500.
After multiple validations, the amount data on the order book is mostly reliable and highly certain, although there may be slight delays in time, but it will ultimately happen. Let's wait and see."
Now, the short volume of BTC at the four-hour level has doubled!
MACD has also formed a golden cross at a high position! However, these signals are lagging compared to the amount data on the order book for buy and sell orders.
The amount data on the order book is considered a relatively early bullish and bearish signal, and its reliability and certainty are very high! It once again validates the predictive capability and reliability of using the amount data on the order book in conjunction with natural trading theory to forecast medium to short-term trends.
"BTC is performing strongly, but the amount data on the order book quietly tells a probabilistic event:
BTC will face a downward adjustment below 98,000, with a support level around 94,500.
After multiple validations, the amount data on the order book is mostly reliable and highly certain, although there may be slight delays in time, but it will ultimately happen. Let's wait and see."
Now, the short volume of BTC at the four-hour level has doubled!
MACD has also formed a golden cross at a high position! However, these signals are lagging compared to the amount data on the order book for buy and sell orders.
The amount data on the order book is considered a relatively early bullish and bearish signal, and its reliability and certainty are very high! It once again validates the predictive capability and reliability of using the amount data on the order book in conjunction with natural trading theory to forecast medium to short-term trends.
Here it is, BTC has dropped down!
A tweet on January 15, 2026 said:
"The amount data on the order book quietly indicates a probabilistic event: BTC will face a downward correction below 98,000, with a support level around 94,500. After multiple validations, the order book amount data is mostly reliable and highly certain, though there may be slight delays in timing, but it will eventually happen. Stay tuned."
My prediction wasn't wrong. Please review my recent analysis and predictions on BTC price movements.
A tweet on January 15, 2026 said:
"The amount data on the order book quietly indicates a probabilistic event: BTC will face a downward correction below 98,000, with a support level around 94,500. After multiple validations, the order book amount data is mostly reliable and highly certain, though there may be slight delays in timing, but it will eventually happen. Stay tuned."
My prediction wasn't wrong. Please review my recent analysis and predictions on BTC price movements.
BTC Short-term Market Outlook: This time it's likely unable to break through around 94,500, and will instead choose to decline and adjust again.
1) From the order book perspective, sell orders have started to accumulate significantly again; data doesn't lie. There might be a slight lag, but overall, it remains relatively reliable and highly certain.
2) On the 4-hour chart: the bullish momentum is at a secondary level, indicating that bulls aren't strong. This is the fourth attempt to break through 94,500, and it's highly likely to fail, followed by a downward correction to around 90,000.
3) I've already analyzed the daily chart trend of BTC for the next month—repeated oscillations with gradually rising lows, but no straight-line surge, which is extremely frustrating. Please refer to Figure 3 and my other detailed article on the projected one-month BTC movement.
Trading Plan: Plan to short BTC around 95,000.
1) From the order book perspective, sell orders have started to accumulate significantly again; data doesn't lie. There might be a slight lag, but overall, it remains relatively reliable and highly certain.
2) On the 4-hour chart: the bullish momentum is at a secondary level, indicating that bulls aren't strong. This is the fourth attempt to break through 94,500, and it's highly likely to fail, followed by a downward correction to around 90,000.
3) I've already analyzed the daily chart trend of BTC for the next month—repeated oscillations with gradually rising lows, but no straight-line surge, which is extremely frustrating. Please refer to Figure 3 and my other detailed article on the projected one-month BTC movement.
Trading Plan: Plan to short BTC around 95,000.
Binance may test me a thousand times, I still cherish it like my first love.
My first step into the crypto world was through a certain 'Huohuo' CEX exchange platform, not Binance.
When I first entered the world of cryptocurrency, I knew nothing. Seeing the constantly moving K-lines and unfamiliar terms, I felt both excited and nervous. The 'Huohuo' desktop client had a clean interface and smooth operation, like a gentle guide leading me slowly through this alluring yet risky new world. I made my first trade there, experienced the heart-pounding thrill of my first price swings, and paid my fair share of 'tuition fees'.
But later, after using it for a while, I ultimately abandoned the 'Huohuo' CEX platform and switched to Binance. Why I completely stopped using 'Huohuo'—I won't explain further. Looking back now, I've been a loyal Binance user for four years. Friends sometimes ask me: 'Why Binance?' The reasons are many, and very practical.
When I first entered the world of cryptocurrency, I knew nothing. Seeing the constantly moving K-lines and unfamiliar terms, I felt both excited and nervous. The 'Huohuo' desktop client had a clean interface and smooth operation, like a gentle guide leading me slowly through this alluring yet risky new world. I made my first trade there, experienced the heart-pounding thrill of my first price swings, and paid my fair share of 'tuition fees'.
But later, after using it for a while, I ultimately abandoned the 'Huohuo' CEX platform and switched to Binance. Why I completely stopped using 'Huohuo'—I won't explain further. Looking back now, I've been a loyal Binance user for four years. Friends sometimes ask me: 'Why Binance?' The reasons are many, and very practical.
Will BTC soar to 100,000 immediately?
1) Order Book: A large amount of sell orders are piled up; based on historical data, the price is expected to experience a downward adjustment next;
2) ETF Institutions: In a favorable CPI data scenario, there was a net inflow of 750 million USD; the biggest driver behind the price surge;
3) 4-Hour Chart: Bullish momentum has not shown significant strength, and the main volume is not absolutely dominant.
If the bullish volume weakens subsequently, the price could potentially retrace to around 92,000.
1) Order Book: A large amount of sell orders are piled up; based on historical data, the price is expected to experience a downward adjustment next;
2) ETF Institutions: In a favorable CPI data scenario, there was a net inflow of 750 million USD; the biggest driver behind the price surge;
3) 4-Hour Chart: Bullish momentum has not shown significant strength, and the main volume is not absolutely dominant.
If the bullish volume weakens subsequently, the price could potentially retrace to around 92,000.
Take You Through the Forecasted BTC Movement for the Next Month (Original)
1) Weekly chart: The price low points are gradually rising, with expected MACD golden cross at low levels, indicating weakening downward trend and strengthening upward trend. This is clearly a B-wave rebound at the weekly level, followed by a C-wave decline;
2) Daily chart: Repeated oscillation with upward movement, low points gradually rising, but volume and bullish momentum are moderate. In the end, it will rebound to below 100,000;
3) ETF institutions: In the past two months, net outflows have exceeded net inflows. ETF funds are adopting a 'step back one, step forward one' strategy, essentially reducing exposure as a defensive move and withdrawal;
Based on the above volume, ETF funds, and momentum analysis, combined with the weekly ABC three-wave decline, the forecast is as follows:
2) Daily chart: Repeated oscillation with upward movement, low points gradually rising, but volume and bullish momentum are moderate. In the end, it will rebound to below 100,000;
3) ETF institutions: In the past two months, net outflows have exceeded net inflows. ETF funds are adopting a 'step back one, step forward one' strategy, essentially reducing exposure as a defensive move and withdrawal;
Based on the above volume, ETF funds, and momentum analysis, combined with the weekly ABC three-wave decline, the forecast is as follows:
DASH coin, the price has now risen to around 75.5U.
This coin should still have room to rise further. A pullback could be a good opportunity to get in.
This coin should still have room to rise further. A pullback could be a good opportunity to get in.
$DASH coin, daily trading volume has set a historical record!!
A massive trading volume often signals a market reversal. If it occurs at a阶段性 low, it may trigger a subsequent upward trend; if it happens at a阶段性 high, it could lead to a downward trend.
ZEC coin has reached its peak, and the core team has already left. Is it now DASH coin's turn in the privacy coin sector? Time will tell.
A massive trading volume often signals a market reversal. If it occurs at a阶段性 low, it may trigger a subsequent upward trend; if it happens at a阶段性 high, it could lead to a downward trend.
ZEC coin has reached its peak, and the core team has already left. Is it now DASH coin's turn in the privacy coin sector? Time will tell.
$币安人生 , the first Chinese meme coin on Binance for spot and futures trading, has quietly risen with oscillations, now reaching a price of 0.195U.
I still maintain my initial prediction: $币安人生 could potentially reach a market cap of around 1 billion USD, meaning the price could rise to approximately 1U.
The first Chinese meme coin on Binance for spot and futures trading, the team behind the operation is likely Binance itself. Success or failure, it must be pushed forward!
I still maintain my initial prediction: $币安人生 could potentially reach a market cap of around 1 billion USD, meaning the price could rise to approximately 1U.
The first Chinese meme coin on Binance for spot and futures trading, the team behind the operation is likely Binance itself. Success or failure, it must be pushed forward!
$UAI Coin, getting ready to surge!
$UAI is an AI-native infrastructure designed specifically for the era of agent finance, providing intelligent trading, data analysis, and automated decision-making through an AI agent network. It supports cross-chain asset management and privacy protection. In short, it's suitable for DeFi and AI financial applications.
It has already launched on Binance Alpha and Contracts. After 66 days of triangular consolidation, it feels like a significant upward move might be coming soon.
Today, $UAI has successfully broken through the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. With 66 days of consolidation, low market cap, strong AI narrative, and a long consolidation cycle, once volume increases and it breaks upward, a major rally is imminent.
I personally am using low-leverage long positions on $UAI Coin.
Not investment advice, for reference only, risk and reward are your own.
$UAI is an AI-native infrastructure designed specifically for the era of agent finance, providing intelligent trading, data analysis, and automated decision-making through an AI agent network. It supports cross-chain asset management and privacy protection. In short, it's suitable for DeFi and AI financial applications.
It has already launched on Binance Alpha and Contracts. After 66 days of triangular consolidation, it feels like a significant upward move might be coming soon.
Today, $UAI has successfully broken through the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle. With 66 days of consolidation, low market cap, strong AI narrative, and a long consolidation cycle, once volume increases and it breaks upward, a major rally is imminent.
I personally am using low-leverage long positions on $UAI Coin.
Not investment advice, for reference only, risk and reward are your own.
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