奔跑财经-FinaceRun

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time, with Powell signaling a shift to a 'wait-and-see' strategy.

On December 10 local time, the Federal Reserve announced another rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut following those in September and October, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points.

However, this decision was accompanied by significant internal dissent, with three members casting dissenting votes, the first occurrence since September 2019, highlighting notable divisions within the committee regarding the future policy path.

At the press conference following the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a key speech, interpreted by the market as a signal shifting his policy stance from 'preset path' to 'flexible wait-and-see'.

He emphasized that the current interest rate is 'in a good position' to respond to changes in the economic outlook, and the Federal Reserve is now 'also in a favorable position to wait and observe further developments in the economy'.

Crucially, Powell also stated that 'no one currently expects interest rate hikes as the basic expectation,' and he did not provide any guidance on whether there would be another rate cut in the near future.

He reiterated that 'monetary policy is not a predetermined fixed route,' and future decisions will be 'made gradually based on the circumstances of each meeting'.

Meanwhile, the 'dot plot' reflecting the long-term interest rate forecasts of Federal Reserve officials indicates that the policy path is expected to become very flat. According to the chart, only one rate cut is predicted in 2026, followed by another in 2027, ultimately reaching a long-term target of about 3%, consistent with the September forecast.

This relatively flat long-term interest rate 'dot plot' guidance, combined with Powell's emphasized 'wait-and-see' strategy, seems to convey a consensus to the market that the most intense phase of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be nearing its end, with future policy adjustments likely to be more tentative, more data-dependent, and the pace noticeably slowing.

In simple terms, from a short-term perspective, the market exhibits relatively optimistic sentiment due to the exclusion of rate hikes; however, from a medium-term viewpoint, the market needs to gradually adjust to maintaining a relatively high interest rate environment over a longer period.

#美联储利率决议 #鲍威尔

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative total net outflow of $284 million on Tuesday.

On December 24, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a continued single-day total net outflow of nearly $189 million over the past four days. Among the 12 BTC ETFs yesterday, none had a net inflow of funds;

Leading the net outflow list was BlackRock's IBIT with $157 million (1,790 BTC), while the current cumulative net inflow for IBIT stands at $62.34 billion;

Following that were Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC, with net outflows of $15.3 million (174.27 BTC) and $10.28 million (117.06 BTC) respectively; Bitwise's BITB saw a net outflow of $5.72 million (65.21 BTC) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $114.29 billion, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $57.08 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of $95.53 million, marking the first day of net outflow this week. Among the 9 ETH ETFs yesterday, none had a net inflow of funds;

Leading the net outflow list was Grayscale's ETHE with $50.89 million (17,200 ETH), while the current cumulative net inflow for ETHE is $5.05 billion;

Following that was BlackRock's ETHA, which had a net outflow of $25.04 million (8,460 ETH) yesterday, with the current cumulative net inflow for ETHA at $12.65 billion;

Bitwise's ETHW and Franklin's EZET had net outflows of $13.98 million (4,730 ETH) and $5.61 million (1,900 ETH) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $18.02 billion, accounting for 5.03% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $12.43 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

VanEck Report: Bitcoin Hashrate Plummets, Miner Pressure or Prelude to 2026 Rebound

According to VanEck's latest Bitcoin ChainCheck report, the performance of Bitcoin has continued to worsen by the end of 2025, with network hashrate declining approximately 4% over the past 30 days, marking the worst fourth quarter for Bitcoin since 2018. However, VanEck believes that this rare situation is not a signal of sustained weakness, but often indicates stronger long-term returns.

Bitcoin price has continued to drop about 9% in December to around $87,000, with volatility rising above 45%, reaching a new high since April, while market speculative demand has sharply cooled. The annualized financing rate for perpetual futures has dropped to about 5%, well below the average level, reflecting a decrease in leverage in the derivatives market.

The pressure on the miner side has become the current core trend, with the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin network hashrate recording the largest decline since April 2024, significantly compressing the profitability space for mining machines.

At the same time, the ETF market shows a clear trend of fund inflow differentiation. Bitcoin ETP holdings have decreased by 120 basis points, while companies have increased their holdings of approximately 42,000 Bitcoins against the trend, marking the largest increase since July. Although strategic funds have completed their increases through equity issuance, other funds have paused related operations.

Despite Bitcoin's short-term weakness, VanEck remains optimistic about its long-term rise. On-chain data shows that investors holding for 1-5 years are reducing their positions, while seasoned long-term holders maintain their positions; this "diamond hand divergence" indicates short-term speculators are exiting, while long-term capital firmly holds.

Historically, the drop in Bitcoin's hashrate benefits long-term investors. Analysis indicates that after the 90-day hashrate growth rate turns negative, the probability of an increase in the following 180 days is 77%, with an average return of about 72%, making entry at this time capable of boosting expected returns over 180 days to 2400 basis points.

Overall, although the current market is suppressed by the weak on-chain activity and miner pressure, the improvement in liquidity combined with the decrease in leverage suggests that the market is brewing a healthier new cycle. The year 2026 is also seen as a key turning point, and the current market pressures are likely to yield considerable returns in the future.

#VanEck报告 #链上分析

CertiK Annual Report: The 2025 Web3 Security Attacks Show a Trend of Specialization, with the ETH Ecosystem Being the Hardest Hit

According to CertiK's latest "2025 Web3 Security Report", despite some recovery in the industry against the backdrop of improved macro policies, the overall security situation remains extremely severe, with over 700 security incidents occurring throughout the year, resulting in total losses of up to $3.35 billion.

The report data indicates that the behavior of attackers is showing a new trend that is more focused and efficient. They are no longer attacking in a dispersed manner, but instead concentrating resources on core security aspects such as private key management and access control to implement precise "surgical" attacks.

This strategy has directly led to an increase in the average loss per attack in 2025, soaring to $5.32 million, a year-on-year increase of 66.64%. A typical standout example is that in just February, among the 58 security incidents that occurred, the loss amount reached $1.537 billion, directly making that month the hardest-hit month of the year in terms of losses.

In terms of attack methods, the most severe losses were incurred from supply chain attacks (attacks leveraging trust relationships within the supply chain), with just two incidents causing a total loss of $1.45 billion, reflecting the vulnerabilities of upstream trusted protocols at the infrastructure level.

In addition, social engineering attacks represented by phishing attacks (248 incidents throughout the year) continuously harassed ordinary users with a very high frequency, becoming the mainstream threat in terms of the number of attack incidents, highlighting the omnipresence of security risks.

Focusing on the blockchain ecosystem that suffered attacks, Ethereum is undoubtedly the hardest-hit area for security incidents. With its large developer community, the highest amount of locked funds, and the most complex application ecosystem, Ethereum has also become the public chain most frequently targeted by malicious attacks.

Throughout the year, the Ethereum ecosystem experienced 310 security incidents, resulting in economic losses of up to $1.698 billion. In terms of both the number of security incidents and the scale of financial losses, it significantly leads other public chains, ranking first in the industry.

In summary, the 2025 Web3 security landscape presents a significant characteristic of specialized attack methods. This indicates that future security defenses must shift from "comprehensive deployment" to "focused breakthroughs", enhancing the baseline defense capabilities of the entire industry while also building a deep defense system for core assets and high-value targets.

#CertiK #Web3安全报告

Trump Criticizes the Unusual Market Reaction, Federal Reserve Chair Appointment Should Align with His Policy Proposals

On November 23, U.S. President Trump released a lengthy post on his social media platform Truth Social, elaborating on his sharp views regarding the current market reaction, monetary policy, and the appointment of the Federal Reserve leadership.

Trump first cited the unexpectedly high GDP growth rate for the third quarter (4.2%, far exceeding the 2.5% forecast) as an example, pointing out that the market is experiencing an "unusual" phenomenon, as past positive news would boost the market, but now often leads to stable or declining stock prices.

He believes this is due to the market forming a kind of fixed mindset, where any strong economic data immediately triggers interest rate hikes to curb "potential" inflation. Trump attributes this market psychology to erroneous policy expectations and claims that "a strong market does not trigger inflation; foolish policies do."

Based on this judgment, Trump has made clear demands regarding the policy direction of the new Federal Reserve Chair. He stated his hope that the new chair would proactively lower interest rates when the market performs well, rather than suppressing market trends for no reason.

His core vision is to reshape a healthy market structure not seen for decades, allowing the market to rise on positive news and retreat on negative news, returning to the normal operating state it should have.

However, on the issue of inflation, he holds a laissez-faire attitude, believing inflation will ease on its own, and that even if necessary, interest rate hikes could be chosen at a "proper time," but absolutely not to stifle the market's upward momentum.

Finally, Trump links policy disagreements to personnel appointments and establishes a non-negotiable red line. He fiercely criticizes those who attempt to suppress the market's upward momentum, labeling them as so-called "nerds," and firmly states: anyone who is contrary to his policy proposals can never become the Federal Reserve Chair.

These remarks also set core principles for the upcoming Federal Reserve Chair nomination, making absolute loyalty and support for Trump's policy proposals core political requirements, a standard that has long transcended the realm of technical bureaucrats, becoming a thorough political declaration.

#特朗普 #美联储主席

K33 Research Annual Outlook: Multiple Positive Factors Resonating, BTC May Outperform US Stocks and Gold in 2026

The well-known analysis firm K33 Research expresses a constructive bullish attitude towards the crypto market in 2026 in its latest report, "2025 Annual Review."

The report predicts that despite Bitcoin's underperformance compared to US stocks and gold in 2025 due to large-scale profit-taking by early holders, Bitcoin's performance is expected to surpass stock indices and gold in 2026. The core driving force behind this prediction is the resonating effects of multiple positive factors such as regulatory clarity, macro policy support, and accelerated institutional adoption.

On a macro level, the report anticipates that the Trump administration will appoint a dovish Federal Reserve chair to expand monetary policy rates and replace past tightening cycles. This shift towards an "abundant" liquidity environment will provide an ideal upward backdrop for scarce assets like Bitcoin.

In terms of regulation, the report believes that the Clarity Act is expected to pass in the first quarter of 2026, and more supportive legislation will be signed at the beginning of the year, providing unprecedented certainty for the industry.

Notably, the incremental funds from institutions are also viewed as a key bullish driver. Firstly, Morgan Stanley plans to allow investment advisors to allocate Bitcoin ETFs for clients starting January 1, 2026;

secondly, E*Trade's retail crypto trading is also expected to officially launch in the first half of the year. Against this backdrop, the report predicts that net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in 2026 will exceed those in 2025.

Meanwhile, the continuous accumulation by corporate finance departments will also provide strong support for the market, with an expected net absorption of 150,000 Bitcoin across the entire industry. As 401(k) pension plans open up to digital assets, the allocation ratio of only 1% to 5% will also generate a very significant buying scale.

On the supply and demand structural level, the report points out that the supply of Bitcoin held for over 2 years is expected to rebound to over 12.16 million by the end of 2026. This change indicates that the long-term selling pressure from early holders has largely dissipated, and their role will shift from net sellers to potential net buyers.

In summary, this fundamental shift in supply and demand, combined with the growing institutional demand, will also provide strong support for Bitcoin to outperform traditional assets in 2026.

#K33Research #市场展望

The total net outflow of the US BTC spot ETF yesterday was 142 million USD, while the ETH ETF had a total net inflow of 84.59 million USD

On December 23, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of 142 million USD on Monday, marking three consecutive days of outflows.

Among them, Bitwise BITB and VanEck HODL topped the net outflow list yesterday with 34.96 million USD (396.70 BTC) and 33.64 million USD (381.74 BTC), respectively;

Followed by Grayscale's GBTC and BTC, which recorded net outflows of 28.99 million USD (329.02 BTC) and 25.40 million USD (288.28 BTC) yesterday;

Notably, Ark 21Shares ARKB and Fidelity FBTC recorded daily net outflows of 21.36 million USD (242.38 BTC) and 3.84 million USD (43.56 BTC), respectively;

It is worth noting that BlackRock IBIT was the only BTC ETF with a net inflow of 6 million USD (68.07 BTC) yesterday, and IBIT has accumulated a net inflow of 62.5 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF is 114.99 billion USD, accounting for 6.52% of the total market value of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.26 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of 84.59 million USD, marking the first day of net inflow this week.

Grayscale's ETHE and ETH were the only two ETH ETFs with net inflows on Monday, recording 53.70 million USD (approximately 18,050 ETH) and 30.89 million USD (approximately 10,380 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is 18.2 billion USD, accounting for 5.07% of the total market value of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.53 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

On-chain data: Sharp decline in exchange capital inflows, BTC and ETH selling pressure eases

According to CryptosRus observations of on-chain data, the price trends of BTC and ETH show a close inverse relationship with the scale of funds flowing into centralized exchanges (7-day cumulative). Analysis suggests that this reveals micro-changes in market sentiment and short-term supply and demand dynamics.

Specifically, when the market is in a correction phase, investors tend to transfer assets to exchanges. This was particularly evident in the market trends from September to November 2025.

During this period, BTC and ETH prices fell from their peaks, while the 7-day cumulative fund inflow into leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase showed several significant peaks.

This phenomenon of concentrated asset inflow into exchanges is typically interpreted as a signal of increased selling willingness among investors, and the backlog of a large amount of assets for sale also exerts immediate pressure on market prices.

However, the market is gradually returning to a dynamic balance. The latest on-chain capital flow data indicates that the previously surging inflow of exchange assets has noticeably subsided.

Taking Coinbase as an example, its inflow scale has decreased by over 60% compared to the peak a month ago, and the overall net inflow scale of exchanges in the entire market has also contracted significantly.

Meanwhile, although trading activity on platforms like Binance remains active, the momentum of large-scale asset inflows into exchanges has clearly receded. This change indicates that the selling pressure from earlier in the market has been significantly alleviated, and panic selling behavior in the short term is gradually decreasing.

From the perspective of market operation logic, the current state of "price stabilization and slowing capital inflow" signals a phase of healthy adjustment in the market. This means that at the current price level, the willingness to sell on the part of sellers has weakened, and the buying power is sufficient to absorb the remaining selling pressure, leading the market to form a new short-term balance. The characteristics of tightening liquidity combined with price stabilization directly suggest a pause in the downward momentum, with the market entering a consolidation phase.

In summary, the shift in capital flow in exchanges from "price decline and increased capital inflow" to "price stabilization and decreased capital inflow" clearly outlines the evolution process of the market from bearing selling pressure to gradually digesting it.

The subsequent direction of the market will depend on whether this short-term balance can be sustained and whether it will encounter new macro policies or regulatory shocks.

#链上分析 #交易所资金流动

Michael Selig takes office as CFTC chairman, leading the United States into a 'golden age' of digital asset regulation

On December 22 local time, according to an announcement from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) website, Michael S. Selig, nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the Senate, was officially sworn in as the 16th chairman of the CFTC.

In his inaugural statement, Selig noted that this is a 'special period' characterized by the emergence of new technologies and a historic high in retail participation in the commodity markets, along with the upcoming digital asset market structure bill to be submitted to the President for signing, which will reinforce the United States' global leadership in the cryptocurrency space.

Selig pledged that during this rapid transformation, he will dutifully assume the regulatory responsibilities of maintaining market stability and security, crafting pragmatic 'common-sense' foundational rules for the 'golden age' of America's new financial markets. This statement aligns closely with the policy vision of President Trump, who nominated him.

It is reported that Selig has a background in both the public and private sectors, particularly with deep experience in the field of digital asset regulation. Prior to joining the CFTC, he served in the SEC's Cryptocurrency Working Group as chief legal counsel and senior advisor to the chair.

In this role, he not only advanced the establishment of a clear regulatory framework for digital asset securities but also worked to coordinate the regulatory systems of the SEC and CFTC, clearly advocating for an end to the 'enforcement as regulation' model, which provided the market with positive signals of clear rules and reduced compliance uncertainty from the regulatory bodies.

Analysts believe that with Selig, who has a friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, officially taking office, and with Congress promoting the Clarity Act, which aims to clearly classify most cryptocurrencies as commodities and bring them under CFTC regulation, his authority and influence in the digital asset space will significantly increase.

Overall, the deeper impact of this personnel change is that it marks a shift in the CFTC's regulatory role in the digital asset space from 'marginal' to 'central.' In the future, under Selig's leadership, the CFTC is expected to take a more proactive stance in establishing a systematic regulatory framework for the rapidly changing cryptocurrency market, which will also have profound implications for the long-term development direction of the industry.

#CFTC #监管格局

The Federal Reserve's policy will enter a longer observation period, and it may be difficult to see continuous rate cuts in the first quarter of next year.

According to the latest data from the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market generally believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the January 2026 meeting has reached as high as 80.1%.

This means that the mainstream market expectation has shifted from "when to cut rates" to "whether to pause," and the expectation for an immediate easing of monetary policy has significantly cooled.

At the same time, the market's expectation for the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts has been pushed back. Data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points in March 2026 is 44.7%, while the probability of maintaining interest rates is 47.1%, with both nearly equal;

and the probability of a 50 basis points cut is only 8.2%. This indicates that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain inactive or make a small cut once in the first quarter of next year, with a rapid rate cut being less likely.

This change in probability is also a result of the recent economic data and the statements from Federal Reserve officials. From an economic perspective, although inflation data has eased somewhat, it remains sticky, and the labor market continues to show strong resilience;

against this backdrop, several Federal Reserve officials have recently issued clear cautious signals, indicating that after consecutive rate cuts, policy needs to leave time for observation of effects.

At the same time, the market is also closely monitoring the Trump administration's imminent announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair appointment at the beginning of January, as the future leadership's policy inclination will be a key variable affecting the path of interest rates.

In summary, the market is pricing in a long-term policy observation period for the Federal Reserve. The trend of maintaining high interest rates in the short term remains unchanged, while the timing and magnitude of rate cuts in 2026 will depend more on the performance of subsequent economic data and the clarification of the Federal Reserve leadership transition.

#美联储 #利率

Foreign media reports that Trump will announce the Federal Reserve chairman nominee in early January, predicting the market favors former economic advisor Kevin Hassett.

According to CNBC and several other media, U.S. President Trump is expected to officially appoint the next Federal Reserve chairman nominee in the first week of January 2026. This key personnel decision is closely related to the timing of the current chairman Powell’s term ending in May 2026.

According to informed sources, this appointment timeline has been basically determined. Currently, the Trump administration has a preliminary outline of the policy preferences for the new Federal Reserve chairman. Trump himself has repeatedly emphasized that he hopes his successor will support a "growth-friendly" monetary policy to promote economic expansion.

Currently, prediction platform Polymarket shows that among many potential candidates, former White House economic advisor and former Coinbase advisor Kevin Hassett has a leading probability of nomination, with the market predicting his winning odds to be as high as 61%.

Hassett has previously publicly stated that the Federal Reserve "still has a lot of room to cut rates," a dovish stance that is considered highly compatible with Trump's desire to implement a "growth-friendly" monetary policy, making him a popular candidate. However, competition still exists, with prediction market probabilities showing that the combined likelihood of other potential candidates is nearly 40%.

It is worth noting that there are also differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rates. Many Federal Reserve officials believe that after three consecutive rate cuts, future interest rate policy should remain stable in the coming months, and point out that the current main risk remains stubborn inflation. This indicates that regardless of who is ultimately nominated, the new chairman will need to balance the core tasks of "promoting growth" and "controlling inflation."

Overall, the appointment and confirmation of the Federal Reserve chairman is one of the most critical events in the U.S. financial system, and the choice will directly impact the direction of global monetary policy, financial market expectations, and economic prospects for the coming years.

No matter who the final candidate is, the nomination of the new chairman will open a crucial period, and their policy stance will directly affect market expectations for the interest rate path, inflation management, and economic outlook in the coming years, as global financial markets hold their breath in anticipation.

#美联储主席人选

Coinshares Weekly: Delay in the Implementation of the U.S. Clarity Act Triggers Nearly $1 Billion Net Outflow from Digital Asset ETPs in a Single Week

According to the Coinshares Weekly, global digital asset investment products experienced their first week of net outflows in nearly four weeks, with a total outflow of $952 million in a single week.

The report attributes the core reason for this trend reversal to the global market's negative reaction to the delay in the implementation of the U.S. Clarity Act for Digital Asset Markets, the ongoing fermentation of regulatory uncertainty, and panic concerns over potential sell-offs by large holders.

Specifically, the outflows are almost entirely concentrated in the U.S. market, which topped the outflow list with as much as $990 million last week. Although Germany and Canada recorded inflows of $46.2 million and $15.6 million respectively, slightly offsetting some of the outflow amounts, this phenomenon still shows that the lag in regulatory policy implementation in the U.S. is beginning to affect the capital attractiveness in this field.

In terms of asset performance, Ethereum faced the largest single-week outflow at $555 million. Analysts believe this is directly related to the key definitions it may encounter in the pending Clarity Act (i.e., whether it is classified as a security), further exacerbating market risk aversion towards this asset. However, from an annual perspective, the total inflow for Ethereum still far exceeds last year's $5.3 billion, amounting to $12.7 billion.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin also saw a $460 million outflow in a single week, with its year-to-date inflows (YTD flows) at $27.2 billion, which is also below the market's optimistic expectation of $41.6 billion year-to-date inflows.

In contrast, Solana and XRP continue to attract funds, recording single-week inflows of $48.5 million and $62.9 million respectively, indicating that investors are making selective allocations in an environment of regulatory ambiguity, turning towards assets they believe may face less regulatory resistance.

Overall, this shift in capital flows indicates that the U.S. delay in digital asset regulatory legislation is starting to have a direct 'crowding out effect' on the local market's capital pool.

If key legal frameworks cannot be implemented in a timely manner, this trend of capital outflow and investors turning to other jurisdictions may further intensify.

#加密货币ETP #投资趋势

Vitalik Buterin: Predictive markets are becoming more 'truth-seeking' through economic accountability and probability anchoring mechanisms.

Recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote from a mechanism design perspective, explaining why predictive markets have more 'healthy' characteristics compared to discussions on emotional topics in traditional financial markets and social media.

He pointed out that the core mechanism of predictive markets directly ties the expression of community sentiment to real economic outcomes, thereby establishing a robust market 'feedback mechanism'.

Analysis suggests that on social media or traditional media platforms, users often gain attention with bold, emotional predictions without having to bear any responsibility for the accuracy of their statements.

In stark contrast, participants in predictive markets must bet their own money, with their returns directly linked to the final outcomes of events, which forces them to form opinions based on rational analysis and objective facts.

Buterin also mentioned that whenever he sees panic-inducing headlines, he checks the prices of related predictive markets; often the rational probabilities presented by the market help him calm his emotions, which is a direct reflection of the 'cooling' effect that predictive markets have on emotions.

Additionally, Buterin emphasized that the prices in predictive markets have clear boundaries compared to traditional stock markets, effectively reducing reflexivity effects, 'fool theory', and manipulative behaviors like pumping and dumping; at the same time, the characteristic of its contract settlement prices being either 0 or 1 fundamentally eradicates the speculative frenzy that induces irrational asset valuations.

Although Buterin acknowledges that theoretically, there are politicians who have the power to 'create disasters' and might profit by betting on the occurrence of disaster events in advance, he believes that traditional stock markets also carry manipulation risks and their trading volumes are much larger than those of predictive markets.

In summary, predictive markets, through their inherent feedback mechanisms and bounded designs, will increasingly trend towards the truth over time, and the probabilities they present can more accurately reflect the uncertainties of the real world, making them a healthier tool for information aggregation and decision-making.

#VitalikButerin #预测市场

U.S. bipartisan lawmakers push for cryptocurrency tax reform, targeting double taxation issues on staking

Recently, a bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers led by Republican Congressman Mike Carey officially sent a letter to Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent, urging him to review and update the current cryptocurrency staking tax policy by early 2026.

The lawmakers pointed out that the current policy requires stakers to fulfill tax obligations twice on the same asset, once during the earning of staking rewards and again during the subsequent sale of the corresponding assets.

This “double taxation” model not only imposes unnecessary administrative burdens on taxpayers but also taxes unrealized gains, effectively discouraging public participation in the essential activity of maintaining the security of blockchain networks.

Legislators argue that tax administration should be based on actual economic gains, thus calling for the IRS to adjust the timing of taxation to occur only when staking rewards are sold.

Congressman Carey emphasized that this move is not only aimed at ensuring fair tax treatment for digital assets but also aligns with the government's strategic goal of strengthening the United States' leadership position in the global digital asset innovation space.

Almost simultaneously, Congressman Max Miller and Steven Horsford also proposed a discussion draft aimed at systematically reducing the tax burden on cryptocurrency users by providing a tax exemption policy for small stablecoin transactions and setting up a tax deferral option of up to five years for staking and mining rewards.

Despite the fact that the former focuses on tax law revisions while the latter offers flexible tax options; both reflect a common consensus that the current U.S. cryptocurrency tax rules at the legislative level are inhibiting industry innovation and market participation.

Overall, the core goal of this proposal is to eliminate outdated tax barriers, encourage more ordinary users to participate in staking activities, thereby strengthening the security foundation of core blockchain networks while safeguarding the United States' competitiveness in the global digital asset arena.

This trend also marks the transition of the cryptocurrency tax issue from the realm of industry advocacy to a substantive agenda of U.S. legislative reform.

#美国国税局 #质押税

Last week, the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced a dual net outflow, with a cumulative total net outflow of nearly $1.141 billion.

According to SoSoValue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of nearly $497 million last week, marking the second week of net outflow this month;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net outflow list last week with $240 million, currently having a cumulative inflow of $62.49 billion;

Following are Bitwise BITB, ARK 21Shares ARKB, and VanEck HODL, which recorded single-week net outflows of $115 million, $101 million, and $39.21 million, respectively;

Meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC and BTC had total net outflows of $27.51 million and $7.33 million last week, respectively;

Notably, Fidelity's FBTC saw a net inflow of $33.15 million, becoming the only BTC ETF with net inflow last week;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $114.87 billion, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $57.41 billion.

In the same week, the Ethereum spot ETF recorded nearly $644 million, similarly marking the second week of net outflow since December.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA topped the net outflow list last week with $558 million, currently having a cumulative net inflow of $12.67 billion;

Next are Grayscale's ETHE and ETH, which recorded total net outflows of $32.36 million and $17.29 million, respectively;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FETH, Bitwise ETHW, and VanEck ETHV had total net outflows of $16.72 million, $13.01 million, and $6.43 million last week, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $18.21 billion, accounting for 5.04% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $12.44 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Michael Saylor throws out another prediction: If Strategy holds 5% of the total BTC, the unit price could reach 1 million dollars

Recently, Bitcoin long-term steadfast supporter and co-founder of Strategy, Michael Saylor, has once again made a stunning prediction. He pointed out that if his company accumulates 5% of the total Bitcoin (about 1.05 million coins), the unit price of Bitcoin is expected to break through 1 million dollars;

If the holding ratio further increases to 7%, the price per coin could soar to 10 million dollars. Saylor defines this holding target as "injecting development momentum into the Bitcoin network."

The core logic of this assertion is that he views the large-scale and continuous institutional buying behavior of Strategy as a key driving force directly absorbing the limited supply in the market and injecting confidence and value into the entire Bitcoin network.

Currently, Strategy's holdings have exceeded 671,200 coins, accounting for about 3.2% of the total. The crypto community estimates that if it maintains its current purchasing speed of about 1 billion dollars per week (approximately 1,000 bitcoins), by the end of 2026, its total holdings could surpass 1 million coins, thereby approaching the grand target of 5%.

Saylor's latest prediction is based on his consistent extreme optimism. He has repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" is accelerating its adoption by institutions, and he believes that the "crypto winter" has ended.

However, there are differing views in the market. Some analysts point out that Bitcoin's price may still be affected by its inherent market cycles, and its correlation with the macroeconomy has also increased the uncertainty of future trends.

In summary, Saylor directly ties the asset strategy of a listed company to the ultimate valuation of a global asset, which highlights Strategy's unique position in the crypto ecosystem and reflects an extreme faith in Bitcoin's future value.

Whether this vision can ultimately be realized will still depend on the continued inflow of institutional funds, the evolution of the macro environment, and the broad recognition of the market itself.

However, Saylor's remarks undoubtedly inject a powerful catalyst into this grand financial experiment that is currently underway.

#Strategy #MichaelSaylor

"Bitcoin Senator" Lummis No Longer Seeks Reelection, Cryptocurrency Legislation May Face New Power Balance

Last Saturday, U.S. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, known as the "Bitcoin Senator" in the cryptocurrency field, announced that she will not seek reelection in 2026. She stated that after "difficult and exhausting weeks of meetings," she is unable to take on another six-year term.

Lummis's departure comes at a critical time for the U.S. cryptocurrency legislative process, undoubtedly having a significant impact on the industry. As a representative from Wyoming and chair of the Senate Banking Committee's digital asset subcommittee, Lummis has been a key proponent of several core cryptocurrency legislations.

She was involved in proposing the "Bitcoin Act," which advocates for strengthening the federal strategy on Bitcoin reserves, and actively promoted key legislation regarding stablecoins and market structure, the "GENIUS Act." Additionally, her advocacy on specific policies such as promoting tax exemptions for small transactions has been viewed by the industry as important reform.

Therefore, her retirement decision casts a significant shadow over the prospects of these pending key bills. Industry analysts believe that her unique bipartisan coordination abilities, deep technical knowledge, and leadership role in the committee will be hard to replace quickly, which may make the clarification process of cryptocurrency regulation more prolonged and uncertain.

After the announcement, the cryptocurrency community expressed regret and gratitude, with several industry leaders praising her as a "great ally in the crypto space" and affirming her irreplaceable role in Congress.

Lummis's current term will last until January 2027, and she stated that she still looks forward to working with President Trump on legislation in 2026. Nevertheless, whoever ultimately takes her seat in Wyoming is likely to find it challenging to replicate her influence in the short term.

Her departure also means that the future political landscape of cryptocurrency in the U.S. will need to be redrawn, and the industry's pursuit of a clear regulatory framework will become more complex and tortuous, with future policy battles facing new power balance adjustments.

#比特币参议员

The Kingdom of Bhutan has mobilized 10,000 Bitcoin reserves to invest in the development of a digitally-driven mindfulness economic special zone.

Recently, the Kingdom of Bhutan announced that it would allocate 10,000 Bitcoins (worth approximately $1 billion) from its national reserves to inject into its newly planned 'Gleipnir Mindfulness City' as a long-term development fund for this new economic center.

This significant initiative was personally announced by King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck of Bhutan during his speech at the National Day celebration last week.

This move aligns closely with the vision of the King of Bhutan to 'use modern digital technology to serve the people and the future,' marking another deepening of the country's strategy on digital asset application in this Himalayan nation.

Looking back at its exploration of digital assets, Bhutan has been using its abundant clean energy for Bitcoin mining since 2017, and this commitment is not a temporary measure but an extension of its long-term national policy.

The core management plan for this approximately $1 billion worth of Bitcoin includes: utilizing assets as compliant collateral to activate funds, implementing a prudent yield strategy under controllable risks, and promoting value preservation operations based on long-term holding.

The country also emphasized that all fund usage will adhere to strong governance principles, prioritizing the long-term security and value stability of capital to ensure the sustainable development of the economic center.

The 'Gleipnir Mindfulness City' is not only positioned as a center for promoting physical and mental health and innovation but is also regarded as a special administrative zone driven by digital infrastructure.

The center will provide a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and convenient financial connections, open for global cooperation with digital asset entities.

As a strategic complement, Bhutan has enabled cryptocurrency payments in this center and issued a sovereign-backed token 'TER' pegged to physical gold.

In summary, this series of initiatives clearly outlines Bhutan's ambition to base itself on traditional mindfulness values while combining its sustainable energy advantages with cutting-edge digital technology to shape the future economic landscape;

And Bhutan's measure of directly linking Bitcoin reserves with the development of the real economy highlights its exploration of a unique development path for sovereign nations systematically using digital assets.

#不丹政府

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs continue to experience capital outflows, with a total net outflow of nearly 234 million USD yesterday.

On December 20, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 158 million USD yesterday, marking the fourth consecutive day of single-day net outflows this week.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net outflow list yesterday with nearly 174 million USD (approximately 1,970 BTC), while IBIT has a total net inflow of 62.49 billion USD;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FBTC recorded a net inflow of 15.33 million USD (174.38 BTC), making it the only BTC ETF with a net inflow yesterday, and FBTC has a total net inflow of 12.21 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 114.87 billion USD, accounting for 6.53% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.41 billion USD.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of 75.89 million USD, marking a continuous 7-day single-day net outflow.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA reported a net outflow of 75.89 million USD (approximately 25,390 ETH) yesterday, becoming the only ETH ETF with capital flow yesterday, while ETHA has a total net inflow of 12.67 billion USD;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 18.21 billion USD, accounting for 5.04% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.44 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Analyst: The evolution of Bitcoin's on-chain activity indicates that the market is entering a valuation reconstruction period following "deep undervaluation".

On December 19, according to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_, through observing the Bitcoin NVT golden cross indicator (which effectively evaluates the evolution of market valuation and on-chain activity), it has been discovered that a new round of Bitcoin valuation reset has already begun, and the market is gradually returning to a pricing model dominated by fundamentals.

From a theoretical perspective, the NVT indicator can be understood as Bitcoin's "price-to-earnings ratio". Its core logic lies in replacing the profit data in the traditional price-to-earnings ratio with on-chain transaction volume, thereby assessing whether Bitcoin's market value is supported by real on-chain trading activity.

Data shows that this indicator has recovered from a historically deep negative value close to -0.58 in this cycle to about -0.32. This change marks that the market has passed the most severe stage of forced deleveraging due to forced selling and general risk aversion; additionally, the current indicator is still in the negative region, indicating that Bitcoin's current market pricing remains conservative compared to its actual network utility.

Overall, the current market is in a transitional phase from deep undervaluation to valuation equilibrium. Historically, this phase is often accompanied by capital accumulation behavior and a healthier price discovery process; at the same time, capital allocation strategies will shift from blindly avoiding risk to more targeted selections.

In summary, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a critical valuation reset, currently transitioning from deep undervaluation to valuation equilibrium, and this process also presents investors with good opportunities for accumulating positions and participating in healthier price discovery.

#比特币 #估值重置