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Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bear Season Has Begun

First, looking at the Bitcoin chart, the price is clearly below the short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The price is sloping downwards from the SMA(7–14–30) and is positioned below the SMA(50–100), clearly indicating a downward trend.

Reactions are being sold off at the falling averages, meaning the averages have now become dynamic resistance. Resistance attempts are coming with low volume. Buyers are not gaining dominance.

Volume in sell candles is deeper than in buy candles. Buying volume is not accompanying recoveries.

In short, BTC is currently in the reaction phase of a bear market. The structure is still downward, and upward movements do not inspire confidence.

Ethereum is also below the averages but is doing better than BTC. The SMA(7–14) is attempting an upward curve, showing a desire for a short-term recovery. However, the SMA(50–100) is still above, meaning the main trend has not changed.

The rebound from the bottom is stronger and more stable than BTC's. Candlestick patterns are cleaner, wicks are shorter, and there's no panic selling.

The increase in volume after the bottom is healthier than in BTC. Buying is still limited but not completely gone.

Ethereum is holding stronger than Bitcoin, but this strength is not yet at the level of a trend reversal.

Considering both charts together, I can say that ETH is holding stronger than BTC. However, the market hasn't yet entered "risk-on" mode.

In both charts, long-term averages are sloping downwards, rebounds are below resistance, and volume is insufficient for an uptrend. The market is not ready for a strong rise. BTC cannot lead, the market cannot go up. ETH is resilient but cannot start a trend alone.

The Bitcoin rally has ended for now. We will first see the bottom of the bear season ($50K), then we will continue the rise. $BTC $ETH

According to ETH Funding Rates, Futures Demand Isn't Meeting the Need to Start a Rally

Recent positive funding rates are lower than in the previous period. There isn't heavy long pressure; that is, the market isn't aggressively engaging in leveraged buying. Negative areas are very limited; it's also clear that short positions aren't dominant. Therefore, I can't say there's excessive optimism in the market, but the long side is still dominant, albeit weakly.

When funding remains positive but low, we can say that leveraged long positions aren't strong and only small investors are trading. This indicates a lack of power to push the price up or down. The price enters a consolidation period at this time. The last part of the chart shows ETH fluctuating around $3.1K; this seems consistent with the funding structure.

Based on this chart, it's not difficult to predict that the ETH price will continue to stabilize in the $3.3K–$3.7K range. Because long transactions are weak but dominant. There is no selling pressure. The price hasn't found a peak yet. Therefore, I think the maximum rise could be around $3700.

The fact that funding rates remain at these levels indicates insufficient demand for futures contracts to support a major rally. $ETH #Ethereum

For Ethereum, I think the peak will be between $3,350 and $3,700. Then, the decline will continue. I predict a bearish bottom around $900. #Ethereum $ETH

Bitcoin's expected scenario continues. I expect it to first reach $102,000 and then continue to decline. The miner cost is between $51,000 and $57,000. During the 2021 bull run, the miner cost was $29,000, and the price fell to $14. That is, it fell below $15,000. If a similar decline occurs again, the $36,000-$42,000 range will be the bottom of the bear season. #bitcoin $BTC

Last week, $DYX, which had been short-correlated with #Bitcoin, returned to its normal course and began falling as #bitcoin rose. It's clear this decline will fall to 98.16. However, I believe it will then reverse upwards. This is because $BTC will likely find a peak and then fall. I expect this peak to reach $102K this week, but it appears to be relatively low volume. I'm keeping a close eye on the short.

Ethereum Binance Reserves Rising

The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand.

While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend.

The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400.

SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K.

This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH

Save beautiful Setup $ACT

If #Spell rebounds from the $0.000255 double bottom, we could have a good long opportunity in the futures. $SPELL

I caught a symmetrical triangle. The price is stuck, so let's follow it, it gives a trading opportunity. $IDOL

Seller Pressure in Bitcoin Hinders the Bulls

The chart shows increasing selling pressure, particularly since mid-2025. This suggests that aggressive selling is more dominant than aggressive buying in terms of volume. It is particularly noteworthy that the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio (Binance) frequently drops below 1, while the 30-day SMA also falls below 1. This indicates a more downward trend-like selling pressure, independent of short-term volatile movements. The 0.97 dip in the 30-day MA indicates strong volatile selling pressure in the market.

After mid-2025, the Taker Bid-Ask Ratio decreased, while the BTC price began to slope upwards and downwards from the same center, revealing a parallelism between the price and the TBSR. This suggests that the price is reflecting seller dominance.

The chart timeframe shows the TBSR rising from 1.10–1.15. However, these declines remained short-term reactionary increases and short entry zones. Buyers aren't strong enough to turn the market upwards.

The TBSR has been below 1 for approximately the last two years, and the price has entered a long-term decline. During the same period, the BTC price fell from $120,000 to $81,000. This confirms the main downward trend of the strong BTC price.

Last week, sellers decreased, buyers began appearing more frequently, and the 30-day SMA remains low. I interpret this move as a continuation of the price's downward movement, and I believe sellers could pull back to $100,000. Don't be fooled by the nature of this downward pressure; it's highly likely that it will remain a mere movement. If the 30-day SMA breaks above 1, the potential for a price reaction to the $100,000 range increases.

Taker selling intensity is high.
Aggressive selling continues in the spot and futures markets. However, any upward price reaction will easily lead to pressure. Therefore, the main downward trend ($70,000) will remain downward. $BTC

XRP Short Positions Trigger Selling Pressure

The recent predominance of negative funding is striking on the chart. Negative funding means more short positions are opening bearish positions across the market. In other words, sentiment in the futures market is weak and there is selling pressure. Negativity has deepened, but the potential for a mass, panic-filled short squeeze hasn't yet begun. The price has been in a clear downtrend in recent weeks. The simultaneous price drop while funding is negative confirms the price drop and the futures position.

As everyone in the futures market takes short positions, the trend becomes more likely to continue. This is because, as long as short pressure persists, appetite for long positions remains low.
In this case, the likelihood of the price retesting the $2.0-$1.9 range increases. This doesn't necessarily mean a decline; it's simply a scenario where the current chart structure favors it. However, if negative funding deepens in the coming days, then short positions should be stopped and liquidity cleared as the price moves from sideways to the $2.25–$2.35 range.

In summary, the price is in a downtrend, and shorting is intense but not excessive. We can say that the short-term direction is under downward pressure. A drop below -0.01 could push the price down to $1.9. $XRP

I anticipate a rally to $3,300 with a double bottom for Ethereum. This level is also a seasonal peak according to financial astrology. I expect this level to be tested first, followed by a continued decline. $2,500 is a key support area. If it breaks, we'll begin to see the true version of the trailer we've been watching for altcoins (delists, bankruptcies, etc.). $ETH

Bitcoin closed the week above $81,500. If it completes the OBO pattern, I expect a downward reversal to the $102,600 and maximum $110,000 range. We'll see a short-term rally. Don't let this fool you.

#Bitcoin fell approximately $40,000 from $123,000 last month. Despite this, there are still those who refuse to accept that we've entered bear season. Please don't place stop-loss trades. Our main direction is down.

For those who say we haven't experienced a bull run, so we shouldn't enter a bear season, I've always stated that not every altcoin experiences a bull run. $BTC , $SOL , and others experienced their bull runs. We should base our bull market on Bitcoin for the season. I believe the bull run will be around $50,000.

If an upward move occurs to complete the OBO pattern, which I expect it to, it will be a breakout opportunity, not a buy.

Bitcoin correlated with $DXY has entered a decline with a double top. As soon as the level of 98.90 is broken, we may see sharper declines at #bitcoin and #Altcoin .

📊 Binance BTC Exchange Netflow Outflows Could Push Price Above $100K

There was a notable Bitcoin outflow from Binance at the end of November. Outflows, particularly between November 23rd and 28th, were repeated in the -2.5K to -4K BTC range.

The outflow of BTC from the exchange signifies a decrease in selling, a tendency to HODL, and a supply squeeze, which has a positive impact on the price. The chart shows that the BTC price recovered from the $85K region to $91K during this period. The main reason for this recovery is likely the negative netflow.

Between November 1st and 10th, large inflows into the exchange created selling pressure, pushing the price down from $105K to $81K. During this period, inflows totaling approximately 5K-6K BTC were recorded. The chart clearly confirms this.

In the most recent data, the red netflow bars are still dominant, but they have diminished. Net flow has been around -300 to -500 BTC in recent days, not excessively so but still negative. The price has also recovered to $91.3K. As long as net outflow continues, there will be structural positive pressure on the price. I predict this will push the price above $100K in the short term. In other words, we are in an environment where selling pressure is weak. $BTC

The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio is at its lowest level in history.

This ratio has now fallen to its lowest level in history, as clearly seen in the chart. This is a critical signal because the decrease in stablecoin liquidity on the Binance Exchange indicates a lack of new buyer power. A narrowing buyer base means it will be more difficult to cover the sell-off when it does occur.

Even if the BTC price rises, the buying power is not supportive. This causes the rises to be short-lived and lacking in volume. Because there are few buyers, there is little power to sustain the rise.

The BTC price chart has recently seen a significant decline, and during this decline, the ratio reached new lows. This is because there is no large buyer base, no new capital, and little idle cash in the market. In this environment, it is difficult for the price to rise and easier to fall.

The scarcity of stablecoins creates a liquidity gap. This gap, if selling pressure arises, accelerates declines because there are no buyers to cover them. This chart fully supports this.

The lack of buyers makes it difficult to form a stable bottom. A bottom requires demand, purchasing power, and cash on hand. As the chart shows, none of these conditions are met in the current chart.

When the Stablecoin Ratio is low, the market's capacity to recover from the bottom is limited. Therefore,
supports continue to break more easily. Price recoveries are weak.

This low Stablecoin Ratio indicates a significant lack of dollar liquidity in the market. This weakens BTC's upward momentum. If severe selling pressure occurs, the price risks falling to $72,000.

Whales can easily move the price due to low liquidity. Small sell-offs can lead to large bottoms.

For this chart to turn positive, new capital inflow is required. There is currently no reversal signal. I believe this chart is evidence of a bearish season. $BTC

I think Ethereum could rise to $3324 and then fall. This could be a breakout opportunity for us.

I think we're in a period where most altcoins will be tied to their demise. Choosing solid altcoins is both challenging and crucial. As for spot buying, I don't think this is the right time. #Ethereum $ETH

Bitcoin is showing signs of a bearish season. We'll fully feel it when the $81,550 support level breaks below. In the medium to long term, I expect a decline to the $51,000-$57,000 range.

In the short term, a correction to the $90,000-$102,000 range is possible. #bitcoin $BTC

Weakening Ethereum Staking Flow Pressures Price

Staking Inflow indicates that investors are withdrawing their ETH holdings from exchanges for staking. This movement generally creates a supply shortage, which tends to be supportive for the price.

After a long period of stable and moderate inflows, the chart shows a massive vertical spike in October. This spike, significantly exceeding all previous inflows, indicates an unusual increase in demand. This Staking Inflow coincides with the peak period for the $ETH price. This spike occurred when the price was in a sharp decline. In other words, when the price fell, staking investors managed to push the price up.

In November, the price dropped sharply from $4K to $2.7K. During this period, Staking Inflow also dropped to around $80K. This decline in Staking Inflow indicates that the price has not yet entered a recovery phase.

Investors still consider Ethereum, currently at $2800, expensive for staking. This could push the price to $2500.

Bitcoin dominance continues to decline, but the money that has left #bitcoin is no longer flowing into #altcoins. Only certain major coins are showing a rise at a certain rate every day. These are generally coins with a community and whale entries.

The decline in dominance may continue to around %57, but since the decline in dominance no longer creates a rising effect on the Altcoin side, we are just observing it. We really had a terrible Bull Season. All systems have changed. $BTC