PhyrexNi

The stock of Bitcoin on exchanges does not have a direct impact on price, which is inevitable. Many times, a single sell-off of more than 500 $BTC can affect the price, especially on weekends and holidays. There are still over 2 million BTC in the exchanges, so I have said many times that the stock on exchanges does not equate to the rise or fall of BTC prices.

This data more represents the sentiment of investors. For example, from the stock data of exchanges over the last six years, we can see that the two increases in early 2020 and 2023 were accompanied by an increase in the exchange stock of Bitcoin. Why is that? Because during this period, investors did not regard $BTC as a "strategic long-term reserve" asset, especially in 2020, when it was very obvious that a large amount of Bitcoin entered the exchanges after the price increased, just to find a better time to exit.

Just now, Trump publicly stated on truthsocial that he will not implement the Greenland tariff on February 1.

The tumultuous US-EU tariff war should have come to an end. Right after the announcement, US stocks and $BTC both experienced a rapid rebound. This again proves what I have always stated, that Bitcoin is directly correlated with US stocks. When US stocks, especially tech stocks, rebound, BTC at least won't perform poorly.
From the current situation, US stocks have completely recovered the decline from Tuesday. Although Bitcoin's rebound is not as strong as that of US stocks, it is also sprinting towards $90,000. If nothing unusual happens, it shouldn't be a problem for it to return above $90,000 in the Asian timezone tomorrow.

The answer is at the front:
Today marks the first phase of the tariff reaction. Whether it will continue to decline depends on whether there will be an escalation of tariffs or retaliatory measures between Europe and the U.S. from tonight to tomorrow, as well as whether the Supreme Court can respond quickly. If there are no further stimulating news, a consolidation and recovery is possible; however, if Trump continues to stimulate the market, the probability of a continued decline tomorrow will not be low.
Main text:
This should be the most concerning issue for most friends. First, we need to clarify the reasons for the decline. This time, the decline of $BTC has two reasons, the biggest of which is Trump's tariffs on Greenland-related countries. The tariffs imposed by the United States triggered retaliatory measures in Europe, and the U.S. intends to continue its retaliation on top of Europe’s response. The last time these 'emotional disputes' occurred was during the tariff war between the U.S. and China in April.

Many friends have privately asked me whether Singapore's EP is no longer useful and whether it cannot prevent the syncing of information back to China under CRS. I would like to clarify that this applies not only to Singapore but to most CRS allied countries:
1. Singapore's EP + 183 days in Singapore means that one is definitely a tax resident of Singapore, and even satisfying the 183-day requirement within two years is considered as being a tax resident. All tax-related matters do not look at the passport, but at the tax residency, limited only to CRS version 1.0.
2. In CRS version 1.0 (which actually has no version, it's just to better distinguish the changes between the old and new CRS), Singapore does not sync user information with China as long as one is a tax resident of Singapore. However, starting in 2025, China has already contacted almost all banks and securities firms globally, and any tax resident of China (including Chinese household registration, Chinese residence) must sync information. This is also a significant change in CRS 2.0.

1. This matter has not been approved yet, and it is unknown when it will be approved. The platform itself is likely a combination of centralized and decentralized.
2. This platform can tokenize the old U.S. stocks as well as issue new tokenized stocks.
3. Both old and new platforms coexist, the New York Stock Exchange continues to have closing hours, while the new exchange maintains continuous trading. Liquidity is synchronized during opening hours through the shared Pillar engine and the fungibility of tokenized shares, allowing arbitrage to correct deviations. During non-opening hours, liquidity is mainly provided by market makers and limit order books, with plans to introduce an oracle to balance prices between different public chains.

1. Ideas in my mind, but when my hands are on the keyboard, I don't know what to write.
Answer: This is the most common problem. Many friends can talk eloquently during a chat, but when it comes to the process of 'writing,' it feels like their brains have crashed. In this case, I personally suggest trying to chat with friends and recording the conversation content, and then throwing it to AI, letting AI help you get started. Over time, you'll know how to start writing.
2. I don't know how to write anything.
This is the first step many new friends take. Most of the friends want to become a KOL or a content creator, but often don't know what they should write or what field they are good at.

If Trump's comprehensive tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland are really implemented, it will lead to a rise in inflation in the short term. Originally, tariffs were not a punishment for foreign countries, but a tax on the cost of imports in the United States, and ultimately, the burden will be borne by American companies, channels, and consumers, only the speed of transmission and sharing ratio will differ.
At a level like 10%, companies still have room for maneuver, as they can compress profits, delay price increases, adjust supply chains, and change production locations to absorb some of it. Therefore, the data may show a mild increase in core commodity inflation, but at 25%, it is not an adjustment; many industries will directly enter a price increase zone that they must enter, especially for categories that are not quickly substitutable, have strong bargaining power, and have rigid demand. Price transmission will be more direct and easier to trigger secondary inflation, which is what the Federal Reserve is most worried about.

According to the expected data for earnings growth in 2026 provided by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Goldman believes that 2026 should be a year of comprehensive explosion for the US stock market. The five indices include the S&P 500, equal-weighted S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, S&P MidCap 400, and Russell 2000. The expectations for these five indices are that they will exceed 2025 and 2024 in 2026.

However, the growth rates of the first three indices are relatively limited, while the S&P MidCap 400 and Russell 2000 show significant improvements, especially the earnings expectation for Russell 2000 can grow by 66%. This indicates that Goldman expects small-cap stocks to likely experience a cyclical explosion from 'earnings bottom to earnings reversal' in 2026.

My personal opinion remains that the Russell 2000 will have a certain connection with $ETH and the altcoin season. The Russell 2000 represents small-cap stocks in the US market. When the overall market liquidity is poor and risk appetite is low, funds tend to concentrate on relatively safer assets, such as the biggest safe assets this cycle, which are AI and tech stocks.

Comparison of the performance of the Russell 2000 and ETH
As the leader of altcoins, it can basically be judged that if ETH does not rise, the arrival of the altcoin season will be very difficult. Moreover, ETH and $BTC have a similar status in the political realm, both being the first and second spot ETFs, and the only two ETFs actively applied for by BlackRock. Although there is still some gap in terms of capital, the correlation between these two cryptocurrencies is the highest in terms of political relevance and narrative.