1. Market Trends and Analysis The current market is in a bearish trend, with clear short signals on the four-hour cycle. The price of Ethereum has effectively broken below key support/resistance levels, facing further downside risk, with a target around 2850. If the price stabilizes, it will be tested whether it can provide stronger support. Master Brother (BTC) is at historical highs in USD, expected to consolidate slightly around the 3000 USD support level before momentum may shift to a new trading cycle. 2. Key Trading Strategies and Principles Core Principle: Prioritize account security to avoid significant non-core losses. Three Key Elements: Direction: The primary basis for determining the current large-scale trend (bullish or bearish) is indicators, and operations should be conducted accordingly; for example, if the trend is bearish, only short positions should be taken. Position: Choose based on technical patterns, such as looking for significant market support levels or previously existing short trend signals. Stop Loss and Risk Control: Regardless of the operation, strict stop-loss must be set. The technique of "extreme stop loss" is emphasized, which involves decisively exiting before potentially suffering severe losses; this method is also known as "the chosen one" level advanced thinking. Level of Use: Emphasizes the one-minute candlestick level as the benchmark for entry operations due to its highest volatility and signal accuracy. All decisions should be made after finding resonance signals at the minute level, within the corresponding time window. 3. Saturday's Trading Framework Summarizes the consensus of core class members: Treat Saturday as a "golden day for operations" because the market conditions are highly suitable for trading and the risks are lower. During this period, high-frequency, moderate position operations can be conducted based on indicators, such as going long near support levels and short near resistance levels, while only executing "just in case" capital preservation stop-loss operations. Sundays should focus on observation and waiting, as significant market fluctuations may occur, leading to uncontrollable market conditions.
"The spring breeze brings warmth, turning into auspicious words around you. May you always cherish the joys of youth, and may life be filled with sweetness everywhere."
During the meeting, the market exhibited a situation of switching between bullish and bearish. Initially, signals for switching between bullish and bearish appeared consecutively (such as bearish signals occurring on the four-hour and one-hour charts), later forming a double bearish trend near 3187. It is important to pay attention to the timing of the "bull-bear conversion," focusing on three core elements: direction, position, and position size:
2. Key Analysis
Direction: Indicators mainly provide directional guidance (bullish trend or bearish trend), clarifying whether the current operations are suitable for bullish or bearish actions. Position: Attention should be paid to key support and resistance levels. For example, Bitcoin found support near 91870, while Ethereum faced resistance at 3200 and 3230. Position Size: It is recommended to use a smaller position size for operations to control risk.
3. Summary of Specific Varieties
Ethereum: Currently, Ethereum is in a double bullish state, but the trend may have reached its peak; it is advised not to chase further gains. The operational strategy is to short, with the possibility of adding positions in the range of 3200-3230, and to set a stop-loss.
Bitcoin (BTC): Recently formed a bearish trend, and it is expected to continue weakening. The operational strategy is to short, laying out positions near 93700.
1. Market Trends and Operating Strategies It has been clarified that the current trend is a 'waterfall' decline, with the direction being short selling, rather than a 'post-mortem' model. Most participants had already held short positions before the meeting, and after experiencing the market's rapid decline, some online teaching methods became the basis for subsequent judgments.
2. Investment Targets and Risk Warnings The meeting discussed investment targets such as Ethereum and gold. Ethereum was positioned as a variety with 'poor attributes,' while gold was considered a high-quality safe-haven asset resistant to declines. Risks of the current market deceiving public trust were raised, including 'mining' type fraud projects and the 'phishing' behavior of frequently holding offline sales meetings.
3. Technical Indicators and Market Analysis The limitations of solely relying on the 'Greed and Fear Index' as a buy and sell signal were emphasized, pointing out that it is a secondary graph with a zombie conclusion. It was repeatedly pointed out that the most critical candlestick chart and the patterns after consolidation play a decisive role in making correct trading decisions.