Kenzoy

Not afraid of being laughed at by teachers, the win rate is this low, but it does not affect my profitability over the years.

Recently, many trades have been back and forth, wiping out over $200,000. The wear and tear is due to fear of a crash taking everything in one go, so if it feels wrong, I will close the position.
The benefit is that it is not easy to be wiped out in one go; with full margin playing contracts, one is afraid of being wiped out to zero in one wave.

The downside is the back-and-forth wear and tear. If there is no trending market afterwards, the profit-loss ratio of profitable trades is not large enough to cover the wear and tear, then it will be a blood loss. This is suitable for my personal trading habits; most people cannot learn it and cannot persist after losing a few times and still have the courage to continue trading. However, if you suffer a few points of wear and tear and suddenly encounter a big crash like 10.11, you will be glad that you had wear and tear; this is the aftereffect I experienced after 94.312.519, I would rather have wear and tear than go to zero. After the big crash on 519, I basically haven’t been caught; the main strategy is to run fast and not get caught holding the bag. (The maximum drawdown from the peak has been tested twice, with a 60%-70% drawdown, so the only way to avoid wear and tear drawdown is to take out half when you have made significant profits.)

Without exception, as long as a coin or stock has an independent trending market, it will definitely, absolutely, diverge bullishly. As long as there is bullish divergence, large market cap coins with high trading volume usually do not end their trend so easily; they will definitely build a top to offload. As long as there is a trend and not opening positions randomly during wear and tear, one can earn back quickly; ordinary people usually make big money relying on trends.

For example, the current zec shows a very obvious bullish divergence, with an increase of several times, which is a very strong trend. Even if it drops from over $700 to over $300, it will still rebound to form a new high, but previously the expectation was to buy zec around $230, which is approximately ma120, and it dropped to a low of $300. If I didn’t buy, that’s fine. A whole bunch of moving averages are supporting it, and it’s not easy to go directly to zero.

(One should not be overly superstitious about any technical analysis or indicators; be mentally prepared for coins to suddenly go to zero. I have no faith in coins; I just take profits and never recharge; even if the coin goes to zero, it doesn’t matter.)

Under this terrible market, ZEC directly rose nearly 20 points in one day, the increase is too fast. Originally expected to slowly rise to 600, just opened a long position this morning, directly profited 15 points in the evening, this must be cleared directly.

CRV seems to have broken through the downtrend line, a small position buy to take a gamble.

Don't increase the price, it's almost sold out, it's going to sell out quickly, there are only a few sesame stocks left.

While making money today and gaining attention, I might say a bit more, but in a few days when I lose money, no one will pay attention to me. The following only represents my personal operations and views.

There is a taboo that most people should avoid, which is trying to pick the top. You might make some profits and sell in batches, but you can't just see something rising and try to pick its top; this is likely to lead to a total loss in the long run.

Lu Xun once said: If you know where the danger is, and you don't go there, can't you avoid it?

For example, on the 11th, a group friend asked me if I could short, and when I saw that this trash was still in a bullish divergence, I definitely wouldn't short it. Even this junk imitation with a market maker might continue to rise, but I wouldn't chase it without a good entry point.

(Bullish divergence means that the short-term moving average is above the medium-term moving average, and the medium-term moving average is above the long-term moving average.)

On the 11th, it was $0.33, and a few days ago it peaked at $0.76; shorting it basically leads to losses. Also, with coins in bullish divergence, you can't find a stop loss. I often say: As long as you don't try to catch the bottom and short at the top, you can avoid about 80% of losses. These days I've also been trying to find the bottom for Dash and learned a lesson; even if I know it, I might not be able to do it. Fortunately, my Dash position isn't large.

Though late, but here I am teachers, please give me a reply, garbage Dashi, Moji is dead

Still the same opinion as before, although seeing a rebound market, but lowering expectations, it's about time to exit.

Buy Zec at an average price of 448, expecting to see it return to 600, the current price is just a little over ten points away from 600, it has already risen more than ten points today, there's not much of a profit-loss ratio left, the next step is to sell in batches, I'm not obsessed with selling at the very peak, after selling Zec I will buy some Dash, catch a small wave, Dash is expected to clear around 60.

Lower expectations, lower expectations, next year's zero market, a rebound back to 100,000 is just to leave you empty that even mom wouldn't recognize the pancake.

I found that posting long messages attracts quite a few people to read and comment. Some even said they want to learn about moving averages. So, if this post gets more than 500 likes and comments with a casual auspicious phrase, I'll share my moving averages for trend catching in the next post.

I learned my moving averages from the YouTube big shot 'lei'. I'm very grateful for his selfless sharing. You can also search for him to learn, but I feel that his set is not suitable for the cryptocurrency space. However, I know that moving averages must be useful (bullish divergence means a bull market), so I modified the usage of moving averages myself, and I find it quite comfortable and suitable for me. Although I have been watching his videos and learning from him for a long time, I have never paid him a dime, which is actually quite ironic. I used to join dozens of paid groups and paid over a million in 'intelligence tax', but I basically learned nothing, and I even joined an ak group (those who understand, understand).

If I get 500 likes, I'll start a thread to talk about it. Actually, it's not easy to explain in a post; it must be live-streamed. Alternatively, you can first watch Lei Gong's free videos, each for ten times or so, to have a better understanding of moving averages, then it will be easier to accept what I say.

Everyone is playing in the square now. Here, only real trading and profits can explain everything. Let's learn something; don't argue anymore, trolls. I'm too lazy to reply.

Every time I think about going all out, I always end up going all out. I want to consider bare loans.

Bnb has been too stable against the Bitcoin exchange rate for too long. When Bitcoin chooses a direction, it will likely suck the life out of everything, and if I can't beat Bitcoin, there's no need to bother; Bnb has basically given up.

Bitcoin's market cap ratio trend is very good, looking like it's going to drain the altcoins.

The last bull opportunity of 2025, here we will have a rebound and consolidation for a month or two, followed by a super crash next year. The price of Bitcoin aims below 50,000, hoping everyone can preserve the profits from these past few years. Bitcoin has been bullish for so long; it really is generous.

Dash really gets stuck whenever you chase it.

In recent years, I have increasingly felt that the primary condition for trading is to be true and objective with oneself. If it's bad, it's bad; don't have any illusions. If your position is too large and you're uncomfortable holding it, you need to reduce your position. Don't let fluctuations affect your emotions; position management is definitely a skill you need to cultivate. In the past, when I had high leverage, even a slight fluctuation would cause stomach pain and affect my emotions and appetite. Now, as soon as I feel something is off, I immediately reduce my position. After all, it's only real profit if you can spend money while you're alive.

This is the exchange rate of BNB to Bitcoin, which has been oscillating at the top for over 60 days now. The MA120 may touch the price in about a month. Usually, a top oscillation lasts around 100 days, and it generally breaks down. Chart 2 shows that Bitcoin will likely absorb a lot in the near future, undergoing a V-shaped reversal. Absorption generally means a surge or a drop. One expectation is that if BNB breaks the MA120 of the Bitcoin exchange rate, I will convert my long BNB position into a long Bitcoin position. The 1,000,000 USD position I added yesterday has been closed; I feel my position is still too large, and the retail sentiment has flared up, so I closed it to break even.

Going long on Bitcoin and shorting Ethereum might be the safest strategy. Chart 3 shows the Ethereum exchange rate I was tracking a few days ago; it has gone nowhere. Yesterday provided an opportunity to short the Ethereum exchange rate. However, my position is sufficient now, and if I increase it further, I will feel anxious, so I will leave it be. The Ethereum exchange rate is breaking in a major cycle; it's best not to touch Ethereum now.

Last night, Ethereum leading the decline was just the beginning.

I just want to ask about the market, whether you go long or short, I have a stable double position, Ethereum is basically scrapped, and next it's Sol's turn to be scrapped.

Bnb hasn't broken down yet, if it drops here, it will find a position to continue adding to the position, and it still needs to go back above 1000 once.

The best scenario is to go 100 long on Sol, then add to Bnb, and then sell Bnb above 1000, making profits on both sides. It's night now, I can have a sweet dream.

Continued to add 500,000 dollars, competing with the dog dealer.

Currently, whether there are any views on this market is no longer important. It's all about seeking stability, seeking stability, and primarily seeking stability.

Going long on BNB and short on SOL is currently the best operational method I can think of. This way, I won't miss out on the collapse of SOL, and since BNB is still in a bullish arrangement, a drop here will be less than SOL, and it will also rebound more compared to SOL.

If the market collapses, increase the position on BNB long. If it reaches the previous target of $100, consider closing the short on SOL.

If the market continues to rebound, then at that time close the BNB long and increase the position on the SOL short. It can go up or down. It doesn't matter to you.

The only risk is being hit from both sides, with the BNB long position being trapped and the SOL short position being trapped. That would indeed be the most uncomfortable situation. Control your position well.

The odds are quite high, but the certainty is low. This is a junk imitation. I admit defeat and will not care about it in the future. (Daily wear and tear, do not follow the trades)

This wave of daily level rebound is much less than expected. It should not be over yet; even if it doesn't rebound, it should at least continue to fluctuate for about a month. BNB hasn't gone bad yet, just open some longs to feel it out.

The big crash expected next year was initially to short Bitcoin and Ethereum, but today I looked at Sol again. The USD price compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange rates is going to deteriorate, and it may not rebound to 170 in the next month. I was overly optimistic before. If it can rebound back to MA60, I will start shorting heavily. The current price is $154. The target is to short back below 30. A very standard topping pattern. There is no denying that Sol may return to single digits.

A significant opportunity with a high profit-loss ratio

After rising more than 7 times, Dash reached a peak of $150, then fell for over 30 days with a decline of 70%. Currently, it is in a bullish arrangement, just recently dropping to around ma120. This combines a large drop, a rapid fall, and a bullish arrangement, which together is my reason for bottom-fishing in altcoins. ZEC is also being monitored, but since ma120 is over $200 and hasn't dropped down, I haven't bought it.

In the next one to two months, there may be a slight recovery in market fluctuations. Dash might bounce back. However, the risk is still relatively high, so a small position is for entertainment (this girl is really beautiful 😍).

There is something here. The levels I watch are relatively high, but I often end up in a bad mindset because I have a large position, and then I close it, so there is quite a bit of wear and tear. The solution is to keep withdrawing until I feel good about my mindset, so that fluctuations do not affect my views. Although I have already withdrawn several million dollars this year, I still feel a bit uncomfortable. Therefore, I cleared the BNB position of 3 million dollars and opened an Ethereum position of 1 million dollars, which I feel I can hold onto better.

Bnb's recent rebound has been quite slow, and I’m feeling a bit unable to hold on, so I decided to lower my expectations and reduce my position to take advantage of the rebound.

It might be because Bnb has fallen less, and the Bnb to Ethereum exchange rate seems to be weakening a bit, so I switched to Ethereum. However, I have reduced my position significantly, barely making a little profit.

Ethereum's rebound has been quite rapid, and due to a bearish outlook, I don't plan to chase it. If it rises a bit more, I’ll probably close my position. I might buy a little bit of some small altcoins to gamble. In the next month or two, it may still mainly be small rebounds and fluctuations. The moving averages indicate that Bitcoin is basically deteriorating, and next year it will primarily trend downwards. I will wait for the long-term moving averages to press down, creating a fully bearish arrangement, and look for a high-risk-reward position to short.

For example, Sol looks like it is going to rebound back to around 170 before heading to 30.

The end of the year is approaching, and after reviewing this year's market, overall it has been relatively simple. I want to lick my fingers.

120,000 bullish and 80,000 bearish are from the same group of teachers

Closed the 650,000 USD position bought below 810 yesterday, continued to add positions on the pullback, selling at a profit forever, let's see what the guys say about 700