Rehan Asif

✅ What’s working for Bitcoin
Bitcoin recently pulled back towards the ~$100,000 psychological support region. According to a technical piece, $BTC
dropped ~1.24% to around $101,558 while trading volumes were relatively low — this suggests consolidation rather than a full-blown capitulation.


A bounce from the lower trend-line of the ascending channel (since April) has been noted; the metric NUPL (net unrealised profit/loss) has hit levels seen near past bottoms. These are signals that possibly a base is forming.
Institutional flows remain present: one article notes that despite technical weakness, large institutions continue to show interest (ETF flows, etc.).
A bullish take from a major bank: JPMorgan argues that after a big deleveraging in futures/derivatives, Bitcoin now appears “relatively cheap” compared with gold on a volatility-adjusted basis, implying significant upside over the next 6-12 months.
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⚠️ What’s weighing on Bitcoin
Bitcoin tried to break above ~$105,200–$105,300 resistance recently but got rejected on heavy volume. The breakdown saw volume spikes ~138% above average as price dropped from ~$103k to ~$102k.
There is a major resistance zone between ~$109,683–110,200 where a large “cost-basis wall” resides (i.e., many holders bought there, so those could become sellers). Until Bitcoin clears that zone, a strong bullish breakout remains questionable.
Some forecasters lean cautious: one price-prediction model suggests the short-term outlook remains bearish until Bitcoin clears meaningful resistance — and warns of possible downside if support breaks.
The recent wider market environment is also impacting Bitcoin: macro uncertainty (e.g., interest-rates, inflation, geopolitical risks) is hurting risk assets. Some commentary points to BTC’s drop from its October highs of ~$126k (earlier in October) as being partly due to this.
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📊 Key Levels & Technicals
Support: ~$101,500–$102,200 band is presently acting as the near-term floor. Multiple tests have happened.
Resistance: ~$105,050 (key immediate) and the more significant ~$109,683–$110,200 zone (where cost-basis clusters lie).
Possible scenarios:
If Bitcoin breaks above the ~$109,683 zone and then beyond ~$112,652, the path opens toward prior highs (e.g., ~$116,435 and ~$126k).
If support fails (below ~$101,450) then downside risks include ~$98,758 zone or worse.
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🧭 Big-Picture & Institutional Context
Moats: Bitcoin’s supply is capped; network fundamentals (hash rate etc) remain strong. Some analysts argue this supports the long-term bullish case.
But: The asset is increasingly linked to traditional markets/investor flows. One academic study shows BTC is more correlated with equities than before, meaning macro shocks may affect it more than prior cycles.
Timing: The October 2025 pull-back (from ~$126k high to below ~$100k) was steep (~20%+ drop) which for some has triggered “cleaning out of excess leverage” — potentially setting the stage for a rebound.
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🔍 My summary & outlook
Given the evidence:
I’d say the current phase looks like a consolidation / potential bottoming phase rather than a clear breakout. The supportive signals are present but still require clearing key resistance to shift into a stronger bullish phase.
The risk remains elevated: if support fails, the next leg down could be significant. Investors should be prepared for both scenarios.
For a bullish turn: a decisive breakout above ~$110k-$112k would be the technical trigger.
On a time-horizon basis: If you’re looking medium to long term (6–12 months), the institutional case and macro backdrop (lower interest rates, inflation concerns, currency devaluation) suggest Bitcoin could be attractive. But for short term (weeks to a few months) the ride may remain choppy with range-bound behaviour.