江枫资本
🌍公众号：江枫资本 🚀推特：BTC20242 微博 ：同名 手续费 返 20% 邀请码：BTC20242 📈交易理念：市场上没有 100% 的确定性，我们能做的只是把交易做到极简化，在关键位置带上可控的止损去博弈一次，对了配合移动止损长持，错了及时止损承认错误 ！留住本金等于留住种子！
Frequent Trader
2.7 Years
12 Following
5.7K+ Followers
5.3K+ Liked
507 Shared
Posts
All
Quotes
Videos
Live
PINNED
During this period of silence, my mind has been struggling constantly, writing an article to record my fatal flaw in trading
After so many years of trading, I have never been able to overcome a fatal flaw. I know very well that if I cannot completely conquer it, I will find it difficult to survive in the market.
Cycle Judgment and Inner Turmoil: The First Test of Belief
In early November 2025, I spent an entire day collecting and organizing a lot of information to carefully write an analysis article about the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. The article clearly pointed out that before mid-2026, the market would still be in a bear market cycle, and the real bottom is expected to appear between May and October 2026. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was still above 100,000!
Cycle Judgment and Inner Turmoil: The First Test of Belief
In early November 2025, I spent an entire day collecting and organizing a lot of information to carefully write an analysis article about the four-year cycle of Bitcoin. The article clearly pointed out that before mid-2026, the market would still be in a bear market cycle, and the real bottom is expected to appear between May and October 2026. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was still above 100,000!
PINNED
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Curse: Has This Bull Market Really Ended?
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Deep Dive: Historical Patterns and the Current Reality's Intense Collision------This article purely extrapolates from Bitcoin's historical halving cycles, which involve numerous uncertainties and should be viewed rationally!
Dear friends, today we analyze whether the bull market will end or continue through the Bitcoin halving cycle. According to historical patterns, when exactly is the bottom of this cycle? And what does the current rebound after breaking 100000 mean?
1. Accurate Review of Historical Cycles and Future Extrapolation
First of all, we must acknowledge the regularity of historical data, but we also need to see the subtle differences within it:
Dear friends, today we analyze whether the bull market will end or continue through the Bitcoin halving cycle. According to historical patterns, when exactly is the bottom of this cycle? And what does the current rebound after breaking 100000 mean?
1. Accurate Review of Historical Cycles and Future Extrapolation
First of all, we must acknowledge the regularity of historical data, but we also need to see the subtle differences within it:
Coordinates in the Storm: Finding Bitcoin's Direction from Macro Shocks, Technical Breakdowns, and Halving Cycles
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a sharp decline, with Bitcoin hitting a new low in nearly ten months. This round of decline is the result of the resonance of three factors: 'a sudden change in macro policy expectations', 'weak internal market structure', and 'long-term cyclical position'. This article will provide a comprehensive analytical framework and action guide for friends, combining the sudden hawkish shift in monetary policy, the already broken technical structure, and Bitcoin's inherent halving cycle.
Part One: Macro Storm - When the Expectations of 'Cheap Money' are Broken
The current comprehensive collapse of the market stems from a fundamental shake-up in the underlying logic that supports the global capital market - the expectation of continued easing by the Federal Reserve.
Part One: Macro Storm - When the Expectations of 'Cheap Money' are Broken
The current comprehensive collapse of the market stems from a fundamental shake-up in the underlying logic that supports the global capital market - the expectation of continued easing by the Federal Reserve.
Is the Bottom of Bitcoin Approaching? Historical Halving Cycles Reveal a Key Turning Point in 2026
Current market sentiment is low, and Bitcoin has retraced more than 40% from last year's October peak of around $126,200. When will the decline finally bottom out? In fact, if we return to Bitcoin's inherent halving cycle rules, the answer is gradually becoming clear.
Last year in November, we predicted the bull market peak window to be around October 2025 based on historical cycles, while the bear market bottom could possibly fall between May and October 2026. Now, the October peak has been validated, and the four-year cycle remains effective. This means that the so-called 'cycle invalidation theory' may just be market noise. According to this rule, the bottom of the current bear market is likely to appear between May and October of this year. Therefore, the most prudent strategy at the moment may be to remain patient, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, and wait for both the cycle and technical indicators to issue a clear signal to stop the decline.
Last year in November, we predicted the bull market peak window to be around October 2025 based on historical cycles, while the bear market bottom could possibly fall between May and October 2026. Now, the October peak has been validated, and the four-year cycle remains effective. This means that the so-called 'cycle invalidation theory' may just be market noise. According to this rule, the bottom of the current bear market is likely to appear between May and October of this year. Therefore, the most prudent strategy at the moment may be to remain patient, avoid blindly bottom-fishing, and wait for both the cycle and technical indicators to issue a clear signal to stop the decline.
Received 1 BNB reward: A two-way journey of trading and growth
In the early morning, when I received the notification of a 1 BNB reward from Binance Square, I was staring blankly at the review document. First, I want to thank @币安广场 , thank @CZ , thank @Yi He
During this period of inactivity, I have been repeatedly dissecting the fatal flaws in my trading, from over-trading caused by greed to betting against the market when I correctly identify the direction but do not get an opportunity to enter. Each loss feels like a slap in the face, waking up the part of me that always gambles on luck in the market.
I initially just wanted to write down these bloody lessons as a warning to myself, but I didn't expect this text filled with struggle and self-reflection to be seen by the authorities, and to receive this heavy recognition.
The value of 800 USD is far more than just an income; it feels like a “growth certification” given to me by Binance Square. It made me realize that in the world of trading, being honest about my vulnerabilities is more powerful than boasting about profits.
I will treat this $BNB as a seed, continuing to invest it into refining my trading system.
In the future, I will continue to share more authentic trading thoughts and sharper strategy reviews here, and I hope to work with more friends who are struggling in the market to turn the tuition of losses into the confidence of profits.
Once again, I thank Binance Square for the recognition, and I am grateful to every reader willing to see my inner self. The road of trading is long and arduous; together, we will reach our destination.
$ETH
$BTC
#BTC何时反弹？
In the early morning, when I received the notification of a 1 BNB reward from Binance Square, I was staring blankly at the review document. First, I want to thank @币安广场 , thank @CZ , thank @Yi He
During this period of inactivity, I have been repeatedly dissecting the fatal flaws in my trading, from over-trading caused by greed to betting against the market when I correctly identify the direction but do not get an opportunity to enter. Each loss feels like a slap in the face, waking up the part of me that always gambles on luck in the market.
I initially just wanted to write down these bloody lessons as a warning to myself, but I didn't expect this text filled with struggle and self-reflection to be seen by the authorities, and to receive this heavy recognition.
The value of 800 USD is far more than just an income; it feels like a “growth certification” given to me by Binance Square. It made me realize that in the world of trading, being honest about my vulnerabilities is more powerful than boasting about profits.
I will treat this $BNB as a seed, continuing to invest it into refining my trading system.
In the future, I will continue to share more authentic trading thoughts and sharper strategy reviews here, and I hope to work with more friends who are struggling in the market to turn the tuition of losses into the confidence of profits.
Once again, I thank Binance Square for the recognition, and I am grateful to every reader willing to see my inner self. The road of trading is long and arduous; together, we will reach our destination.
$ETH
$BTC
#BTC何时反弹？
$ETH 3070 The hanging short position was not executed, so let's take a long position first at 2755.
To 3030~3050, then check the pressure situation. If it's possible to short, continue to short it. The short position at 3070 is still hanging and waiting to enter!
To 3030~3050, then check the pressure situation. If it's possible to short, continue to short it. The short position at 3070 is still hanging and waiting to enter!
TSLAUSDT
Perp
5X
Opening Long
Unrealized PNL
-4.00%
Breaking the Cocoon: A Manual for the Lonely Practice of Professional Traders.
Today's sharing is: "Breaking the Cocoon: A Manual for the Lonely Practice of Professional Traders." What I speak is by no means inspirational fluff, but the brutally honest truth. This world is never short of people wanting to become stronger; what it lacks are those who dare to cut themselves. You think strength is a gift of talent, but you're wrong. Strength is borne from gritting your teeth, enduring discontent, swallowing grievances, and being painfully forced out in the struggle.
I have seen too many people shout about dreams, but their actions are like a snail. They review for five minutes, scroll their phones for half an hour, doubt life after a loss, and feel elated after a gain. Such people haven't even touched the threshold of trading. Real professional traders never complain about the market and won't chase their teachers to "ask" how to view it, because they know that the market won't become gentle due to your panic; it will only watch coldly. You cry when it drops, you get tough when it consolidates, and when you hesitate, it will slap you to remind you what reality is.
I have seen too many people shout about dreams, but their actions are like a snail. They review for five minutes, scroll their phones for half an hour, doubt life after a loss, and feel elated after a gain. Such people haven't even touched the threshold of trading. Real professional traders never complain about the market and won't chase their teachers to "ask" how to view it, because they know that the market won't become gentle due to your panic; it will only watch coldly. You cry when it drops, you get tough when it consolidates, and when you hesitate, it will slap you to remind you what reality is.
$ETH Today's Ethereum short order has been placed, 3070～3090 short, yesterday's short order was stopped out in the evening, profits should be taken in a timely manner by everyone in batches, today we continue to short it, the trades I make are only to validate my analysis of the market, the positions are very small, there is a high probability of frequent stop losses, everyone should make their own decisions! #美联储利率决议
The strategy remains unchanged tonight 2960～2980 near participating in short positions, 3%≥position, continue to gamble once near 2750, reduce positions on your own in between, my orders are already set, only represent my personal operational points for reference
$ETH
#美联储利率决议
$ETH
#美联储利率决议
The Truth of Trading: Slow Down, Be the Rarest Species in the Market
Today, let's talk about the truth of trading. Slowing down is the beginning of becoming stronger.
The moment a person truly becomes strong is not the ecstatic feeling of earning the first pot of gold, nor the luck of hitting a trend, but the moment they dare to completely sever ties with themselves deep down.
At that moment, you no longer fantasize about a savior descending from the sky or hope for fate's mercy, but instead settle down to understand: even if you are broke at this moment, you have already embarked on the path of evolution.
The market recognizes only the word 'execution' from different emotional perspectives. Most people fail due to 'emotions', while a few succeed through 'calmness'.
I have seen too many people rise and fall in the market: doubting life after losing two trades, boasting of being the chosen one after making a small profit, risking their entire life, in reality, they are puppets led by their emotions.
The moment a person truly becomes strong is not the ecstatic feeling of earning the first pot of gold, nor the luck of hitting a trend, but the moment they dare to completely sever ties with themselves deep down.
At that moment, you no longer fantasize about a savior descending from the sky or hope for fate's mercy, but instead settle down to understand: even if you are broke at this moment, you have already embarked on the path of evolution.
The market recognizes only the word 'execution' from different emotional perspectives. Most people fail due to 'emotions', while a few succeed through 'calmness'.
I have seen too many people rise and fall in the market: doubting life after losing two trades, boasting of being the chosen one after making a small profit, risking their entire life, in reality, they are puppets led by their emotions.
The root cause of most people's trading failures! These six key steps to record, understanding them will help you break through in trading.
Trading 'Awakening Record' records and habits, today I will share with you the trading 'Awakening Record' records and habits.
On this road of trading filled with challenges and opportunities, if you cannot even organize the most basic trading records, I can tell you with certainty that you are not engaging in real trading, but rather muddling through life based on feelings.
You only need to look back at your past trading history, and it is not hard to find that times of profit seem to be the favor of the goddess of fate, entirely a matter of luck; while in times of loss, it feels like falling into a quagmire, where you can only grit your teeth and persevere. In fact, it is not that the market is intentionally going against you, but that you have never regarded trading as a rigorous profession from the very beginning. As the ancients said, 'Skill comes from diligence, while neglect leads to decline.' Your attitude towards trading determines your gains in the trading field.
On this road of trading filled with challenges and opportunities, if you cannot even organize the most basic trading records, I can tell you with certainty that you are not engaging in real trading, but rather muddling through life based on feelings.
You only need to look back at your past trading history, and it is not hard to find that times of profit seem to be the favor of the goddess of fate, entirely a matter of luck; while in times of loss, it feels like falling into a quagmire, where you can only grit your teeth and persevere. In fact, it is not that the market is intentionally going against you, but that you have never regarded trading as a rigorous profession from the very beginning. As the ancients said, 'Skill comes from diligence, while neglect leads to decline.' Your attitude towards trading determines your gains in the trading field.
All stable and profitable traders have gone through these three stages. Which stage are you in?
All stable and profitable traders have gone through these three stages. Which stage are you in?
Everyone moving towards stability has experienced these three stages.
After encountering a large number of traders, I found a clear pattern: almost everyone who moves towards stability has gone through three distinct stages. Most people incur losses because they remain trapped in one of these stages for a long time.
The first stage is trading by instinct. When entering the market, all one sees are opportunities, listening to news, relying on gut feelings, frequently taking large positions, wanting to earn more when they profit, and stubbornly holding on when they incur losses, or continuously adding money to try to recover their losses. The result is quick gains but even quicker losses. The core lesson of this stage is: before learning to make money, one must first learn not to lose large sums.
Everyone moving towards stability has experienced these three stages.
After encountering a large number of traders, I found a clear pattern: almost everyone who moves towards stability has gone through three distinct stages. Most people incur losses because they remain trapped in one of these stages for a long time.
The first stage is trading by instinct. When entering the market, all one sees are opportunities, listening to news, relying on gut feelings, frequently taking large positions, wanting to earn more when they profit, and stubbornly holding on when they incur losses, or continuously adding money to try to recover their losses. The result is quick gains but even quicker losses. The core lesson of this stage is: before learning to make money, one must first learn not to lose large sums.
Today my own order strategy has been updated. The previous long positions at 3230～3180 are currently experiencing slight losses. I plan to hold on to them. For Bitcoin, the long position at 91800 had a stop loss that was not triggered during this morning's rapid decline. I intend to continue holding; everyone can decide for themselves. $ETH
$BTC
#比特币2026年价格预测
$BTC
#比特币2026年价格预测
This kind of volatile market is not suitable for traders like K to have 😄
The Ultimate Wisdom of Trading: Waiting is not inaction, but the highest form of action
The candlesticks in the trading market are like relentless tides, with constant ups and downs hiding countless temptations. But for a trader with a mature, positive trading system, true wisdom lies not in the hustle of frequent actions, but in the quiet discipline of waiting.
Waiting is the highest realm of trading, the silent language through which systems communicate with the market. It filters out noise for the system; if the entry conditions aren't met, all price movements are merely background noise. Just as a hunter won't shoot at leaves swaying in the wind, a mature trader lets the bullet fly a little longer until the target clearly enters range.
Waiting is the highest realm of trading, the silent language through which systems communicate with the market. It filters out noise for the system; if the entry conditions aren't met, all price movements are merely background noise. Just as a hunter won't shoot at leaves swaying in the wind, a mature trader lets the bullet fly a little longer until the target clearly enters range.
Today's View: Do not participate near 3270, continue waiting and then position, maintaining last night's view unchanged. For yesterday's long positions between 3290 and 3270, reduce position at 3380, and fully exit the remaining position near 3340. Never use a level tested more than 3 times—better to miss it! $ETH homepage enter chat room
Above $BTC , near 97200, near $ETH 3380, it seems the pressure was underestimated. It just touched nearby and then dropped sharply. The long position at 3290～3270 was reduced near 3380, and the remaining position was stopped out early due to the sudden drop. Currently, there is no position. It's recommended to keep the short positions mentioned in the article hanging. If it rebounds, it might be a fakeout from the recent sharp drop. However, substantial profits have already been taken. If it doesn't go up, a new strategy will be updated in the chat room later. Please pay attention to the chat room messages!
January 15 BTC/ETH Market Analysis
Hello everyone, recently there have been fewer market analysis articles on the square, mostly sharing strategies directly in the Binance chat room for free. If you haven't joined yet, feel free to come in and discuss: 江枫策略交流. In the morning chat room, a long position was suggested around $ETH 3290～3270, and at around 3380, it was advised to reduce part of your position. The remainder can be used to gamble on 3430, and short positions around 3435～3450 (light position, 2%) can be considered. If the entry opportunity hasn't been reached yet, just wait patiently!
Ethereum currently faces a minor resistance around 3380. The main resistance remains in the 3435～3470 and 3630 range. This range is suitable for attempting a short position, so those who haven't taken a long position are advised to watch 3435～3470 and consider placing a small short position to gamble on a break below 3280. (After making profits, adjust your position accordingly to lock in some gains based on your own position size.)
Currently, above $BTC , the short-term resistance is around 97200, with the main resistance still at 98500. If this level is effectively broken and held, it might reach the 100,000 mark. However, personally, I think the resistance here is still quite strong, making it worth gambling on a short position. Therefore, those without a long position at lower levels can consider placing a small short position around 98500, with a small stop-loss. Target levels are 97200 down to 94000～93200. Real-time market movements should follow the live chat room updates!
The above are purely personal views by Jiang Feng, with many uncertainties—please consider carefully! For those who have already reduced their Ethereum long positions around 3290～3270 at around 337, it's recommended to set a breakeven stop and then gamble on 3430. There may be a ±5 point deviation in Ethereum entry and exit prices, and ±100 point deviation for Bitcoin.
#Strategy增持比特币
Hello everyone, recently there have been fewer market analysis articles on the square, mostly sharing strategies directly in the Binance chat room for free. If you haven't joined yet, feel free to come in and discuss: 江枫策略交流. In the morning chat room, a long position was suggested around $ETH 3290～3270, and at around 3380, it was advised to reduce part of your position. The remainder can be used to gamble on 3430, and short positions around 3435～3450 (light position, 2%) can be considered. If the entry opportunity hasn't been reached yet, just wait patiently!
Ethereum currently faces a minor resistance around 3380. The main resistance remains in the 3435～3470 and 3630 range. This range is suitable for attempting a short position, so those who haven't taken a long position are advised to watch 3435～3470 and consider placing a small short position to gamble on a break below 3280. (After making profits, adjust your position accordingly to lock in some gains based on your own position size.)
Currently, above $BTC , the short-term resistance is around 97200, with the main resistance still at 98500. If this level is effectively broken and held, it might reach the 100,000 mark. However, personally, I think the resistance here is still quite strong, making it worth gambling on a short position. Therefore, those without a long position at lower levels can consider placing a small short position around 98500, with a small stop-loss. Target levels are 97200 down to 94000～93200. Real-time market movements should follow the live chat room updates!
The above are purely personal views by Jiang Feng, with many uncertainties—please consider carefully! For those who have already reduced their Ethereum long positions around 3290～3270 at around 337, it's recommended to set a breakeven stop and then gamble on 3430. There may be a ±5 point deviation in Ethereum entry and exit prices, and ±100 point deviation for Bitcoin.
#Strategy增持比特币
January 15 BTC/ETH Market Analysis
Hello everyone, recently there have been fewer market analysis articles on the square, mostly sharing strategies directly in the Binance chat room for free. If you haven't joined yet, feel free to come in and discuss: 江枫策略交流. In the morning chat room, a long position was suggested around $ETH 3290～3270, and at around 3380, it was advised to reduce part of your position. The remainder can be used to gamble on 3430, and short positions around 3435～3450 (light position, 2%) can be considered. If the entry opportunity hasn't been reached yet, just wait patiently!
Ethereum currently faces a minor resistance around 3380. The main resistance remains in the 3435～3470 and 3630 range. This range is suitable for attempting a short position, so those who haven't taken a long position are advised to watch 3435～3470 and consider placing a small short position to gamble on a break below 3280. (After making profits, adjust your position accordingly to lock in some gains based on your own position size.)
Currently, above $BTC , the short-term resistance is around 97200, with the main resistance still at 98500. If this level is effectively broken and held, it might reach the 100,000 mark. However, personally, I think the resistance here is still quite strong, making it worth gambling on a short position. Therefore, those without a long position at lower levels can consider placing a small short position around 98500, with a small stop-loss. Target levels are 97200 down to 94000～93200. Real-time market movements should follow the live chat room updates!
The above are purely personal views by Jiang Feng, with many uncertainties—please consider carefully! For those who have already reduced their Ethereum long positions around 3290～3270 at around 337, it's recommended to set a breakeven stop and then gamble on 3430. There may be a ±5 point deviation in Ethereum entry and exit prices, and ±100 point deviation for Bitcoin.
#Strategy增持比特币
Hello everyone, recently there have been fewer market analysis articles on the square, mostly sharing strategies directly in the Binance chat room for free. If you haven't joined yet, feel free to come in and discuss: 江枫策略交流. In the morning chat room, a long position was suggested around $ETH 3290～3270, and at around 3380, it was advised to reduce part of your position. The remainder can be used to gamble on 3430, and short positions around 3435～3450 (light position, 2%) can be considered. If the entry opportunity hasn't been reached yet, just wait patiently!
Ethereum currently faces a minor resistance around 3380. The main resistance remains in the 3435～3470 and 3630 range. This range is suitable for attempting a short position, so those who haven't taken a long position are advised to watch 3435～3470 and consider placing a small short position to gamble on a break below 3280. (After making profits, adjust your position accordingly to lock in some gains based on your own position size.)
Currently, above $BTC , the short-term resistance is around 97200, with the main resistance still at 98500. If this level is effectively broken and held, it might reach the 100,000 mark. However, personally, I think the resistance here is still quite strong, making it worth gambling on a short position. Therefore, those without a long position at lower levels can consider placing a small short position around 98500, with a small stop-loss. Target levels are 97200 down to 94000～93200. Real-time market movements should follow the live chat room updates!
The above are purely personal views by Jiang Feng, with many uncertainties—please consider carefully! For those who have already reduced their Ethereum long positions around 3290～3270 at around 337, it's recommended to set a breakeven stop and then gamble on 3430. There may be a ±5 point deviation in Ethereum entry and exit prices, and ±100 point deviation for Bitcoin.
#Strategy增持比特币
Do Traders Really 'Lose Gracefully'? Unveiling 4 Counterintuitive Truths of Professional Trading—Understand These and Skip 5 Years of Detours
Learn how to lose gracefully
What people call a trading system is simply a particular way of accepting losses. In the world of trading, the four characters that most easily mislead beginners are 'seeking patterns.' Many people spend their entire lives trying to find a universal pattern that guarantees profit whenever it appears. They examine candlestick charts like old-time Chinese physicians, diagnosing symptoms and trying to avoid all false breakouts, bypass all consolidation zones, and catch every main upward surge.
But today I want to tear off this sentimental veil and reveal an extremely counterintuitive truth.
1. Seeking patterns isn't about predicting the future—it's about establishing standards. There's nothing wrong with seeking patterns; without specific patterns, you can't establish trading standards. The problem arises when people mistake standards for prophecy. Do you really think finding a head-and-shoulders pattern or the turtle trading rules will help you avoid losses? Wrong. Just like in breakout trading, you'll always face volatility after buying, and you'll always encounter fake breakouts after chasing momentum. This is the market's breathing rhythm—the inherent nature of trading.
What people call a trading system is simply a particular way of accepting losses. In the world of trading, the four characters that most easily mislead beginners are 'seeking patterns.' Many people spend their entire lives trying to find a universal pattern that guarantees profit whenever it appears. They examine candlestick charts like old-time Chinese physicians, diagnosing symptoms and trying to avoid all false breakouts, bypass all consolidation zones, and catch every main upward surge.
But today I want to tear off this sentimental veil and reveal an extremely counterintuitive truth.
1. Seeking patterns isn't about predicting the future—it's about establishing standards. There's nothing wrong with seeking patterns; without specific patterns, you can't establish trading standards. The problem arises when people mistake standards for prophecy. Do you really think finding a head-and-shoulders pattern or the turtle trading rules will help you avoid losses? Wrong. Just like in breakout trading, you'll always face volatility after buying, and you'll always encounter fake breakouts after chasing momentum. This is the market's breathing rhythm—the inherent nature of trading.
$ETH Eventually it's up, why do you have to pay to see a strategy that can be freely viewed? Nobody appreciates it, free, free, no need to fill in an invitation code, just use your current one, no requirements, no requirements! It's shared for free in Jiang Feng's chat room! You can enter directly from the main page chat room to watch for free 😊
Login to explore more contents