Some people say I don't take ETH seriously! That's not true, brother. That's not true! The trend of ETH resembles BTC, but ultimately, due to its smaller base, the precision in operation is insufficient. It has never been possible to operate as precisely as BTC. Main topic:
ETH, like BTC, has also experienced a significant decline, and there was a rebound at 8 o'clock today. Although it was during the early peak period, very few could take profit on short positions, while simultaneously going long. As the trend continues, signs of decline have begun to appear again.
Medium-term strategy: Hold on to 2780-2800. If short positions were taken at 2100-2200 according to yesterday's strategy, it can be counted as an increase in medium-term shorts. It can be ignored unless it rebounds to 2000, at which point the short positions from yesterday should be closed for the same amount to secure profits. Maintain the amount of 2780-2800 unchanged.
Short-term strategy: For aggressive traders: Short at the current price of 1875, stop loss at 100, take profit at 1820-1800. For conservative traders: If it rebounds to 2000 and then shows a decline, short when it drops to 1950, stop loss at 100, take profit at 1820-1800.
After experiencing an absolute counterattack this morning, BTC has seen a significant rebound. Although the medium-term downtrend has not changed, there is still a slight impact in the short term.
Medium-term strategy: continue to hold short positions at 83400 and 81000 without any changes, and because it has broken below 72000 or 71000, the quantity of previously taken profits has been replenished. nice
Short-term strategy: On February 25, the short positions at 72000 and 71000 can be partially converted into medium-term strategy holdings. A: If you already hold higher-priced short positions, you may choose not to exit at your discretion, accumulating medium-term short positions.
B: For traders who have completely taken profits and hold no positions, there are two situations: 1. Conservative traders: wait for a rebound failure at 69500, and then short again during the next decline. 2. Aggressive traders: short when the price breaks below 63000, with a stop loss at 10000, and a profit target of 2000--3000 points.
📉 ETH 1H current market has clearly broken below the low since the 26th, officially entering a breakout range trading mode.
Macroeconomic Background: ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to decline, with the market favoring BTC more. DeFi TVL growth is slowing down, and spot ETF capital inflows are also slowing down, making the overall macro environment unfavorable for ETH.
Market Sentiment: ETH investors lack confidence, with selling pressure greater than buying interest. Many investors are waiting to exit on a rebound, and this concentrated selling often indicates there may still be space for a short-term decline.
Strategy Signals: • Medium-term: Continue to hold short positions until a rebound to the 26th low • Rebound 2780-2800 → Short, stop loss 50 points
Core Idea: Short when breaking below support, do not try to catch the bottom.
📉 BTC 1H market has clearly fallen below the low point of 86000 on the 26th, a position that we have repeatedly emphasized in our strategy—breaking below is a signal of mid-term bearish confirmation.
Macroeconomic Background: This week's trend is weak, breaking multiple key supports, and the market is digesting the pullback pressure from previous gains. The macro funding environment is cautious, and institutional sentiment is heavily wait-and-see.
Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment is bearish, with a decline in the long-short ratio, a decrease in contract positions, and a reduction in social media discussions. The market has shifted from "fear of heights" to "fear of falling," which often signals a continuation of the trend.
Strategy Signals: • Mid-term: Hold short positions unless there is a rebound to 85000 points • Rebound to 85000 → Short, stop loss 1000 points • Around 83400 → Try short, stop loss 1000 points • Breaking below 81000 → Key short point, reduce position and widen stop loss to 1300-1500 points
Core Idea: Trade with the trend, short when breaking support.
The trend is basically the same as BTC, but note one thing: the current price rebound is already near the previous high point of 2955, not far from 3000.
The operating space is further compressed. Very short-term trading can participate, but be careful with stop-loss.
Currently, after a surge yesterday, a sideways consolidation is expected. Although this presents a good opportunity for experienced short-term traders to capitalize on fluctuations, it may create unnecessary complications for many investors who treat this as a side business. Therefore, a wait-and-see strategy is adopted, which also helps avoid the fluctuations at 10 PM.
The current price trend is relatively clear in the short term, but it still operates within a range of fluctuations.
Currently, short-term trades can be made along the moving averages, but the profit target is set at the previous highs of 90000, 92000, with a stop loss of 1000.
Affected by BTC, ETH also shows a similar trend, with a sharp drop followed by a surge. At that time, it was limited to a small range of increases, which can only be regarded as a retaliatory rebound after the drop. However, we should not take a stand against this. Otherwise, we might easily get caught in the crossfire. It is recommended to observe for a while, waiting for the trend to become clear before entering the market.
The current price experienced a significant rebound at 7 AM today, and our short position avoided a loss due to the profit from quantitative trading, exiting with only a small profit. Aside from marveling at the capabilities of quantitative trading, for manual traders, the current market seems to have returned to a consolidation range, with a small direction of rebound and a larger direction of decline, creating a conflict. Especially the MACD indicator, the upward momentum began to increase sharply at 7 AM and has not yet released. At this time, trading is not recommended; attention should be paid to the further development of the market.
2026.1.22 Today's Market Analysis + Same Day Strategy
BTC-1H After experiencing a sharp decline early yesterday, a strong rebound occurred at midnight Beijing time today, with prices continuing to push higher to the recent fluctuation range high point. The rhythm of the decline has now been broken. However, this does not mean that the rise has begun. From a technical perspective, the current price has been falling along the direction of the moving average, but after a strong rebound occurred at midnight, it began to consolidate sideways, with no clear direction at present. MACD and KDJ continued the rebound from midnight but showed slight weakening afterward.
Closely monitor the breakout of the range 87000-91000 ETH-1H Affected by BTC, ETH also experienced a strong rebound last night, but then showed weakness without sustained upward movement, however, it has turned into a testing trend.
It's still that saying, going bankrupt once makes you wake up.
After going bankrupt, there is only one need: to survive. After a couple of months, you will find that 90% of your original spending was unnecessary, all just to pay for the stories told by others.
Especially if you have the opportunity to break free from working and gain basic financial freedom, you will find that you are much freer than you imagine, because most of your original spending was just for 'showing off' to others.
Most people only focus on the fact that Yao Qian, a senior official at the department level, embezzled 2,000 ETH,
but they didn't notice that Yao Qian is actually a skilled cryptocurrency trader,
with absolute faith in blockchain and cryptocurrencies,
he received 2,000 ETH as a bribe from the project founder Mr. Zhang in 2018,
as everyone knows,
ETH dropped to $85 per coin on March 12, 2020,
making the 2,000 ETH worth only $170,000 at the time,
but Yao Qian didn't sell off like other retail investors, he held firmly,
and sold several hundred ETH when ETH reached its peak of $4,000,
his only purpose being to cash out for buying a villa,
his ability to execute such a move and capture a 50x gain on Ethereum (achievable by less than one-tenth of one percent of people)
shows his deep understanding of cryptocurrencies,
and he should have long moved beyond the gold standard, fully evolving into a crypto-based mindset,
his level of awareness and belief is evident,
truly worthy of being the former Director of the Technology Regulatory Department and Information Center at the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
After the person in front of Yao was arrested, how was his coin found?
It was simply found in this unlocked drawer below his office, just that simple.
Many times, the truth is quite speechless.
What is presumed is completely different from the truth.
I once went to a leader to handle some matters, feeling anxious with a gift in hand, only to find that when I entered his office, the cabinet behind his desk was piled high with various gifts (of course, all of limited value).