Gold isn’t just climbing — it’s repricing itself in real time.
$XAU ripping through the $5,100–$5,300 zone wasn’t a gradual breakout, it was a shock move. Over 20% in less than a month, four-figure gains per ounce, and repeated record highs in days. Historically, gold only behaves like this when confidence in the system starts cracking — the last comparable candle showed up in 1980.
The drivers are tightly connected. Geopolitical stress is no longer isolated; trade threats, political pressure, and global uncertainty are stacking on top of each other. At the same time, a weakening dollar and unclear Fed direction are eroding faith in fiat stability. When that happens, capital doesn’t rotate — it runs.
Technically, this isn’t a normal bull trend. Old resistance has been left far below, pullbacks are instantly absorbed, and price action is vertical, a classic sign of early commodity super-cycles. Layer in aggressive central-bank buying and accelerating ETF inflows, and supply simply can’t keep up.
When gold — the market’s anchor — starts moving like this, it’s not chasing returns. It’s signaling risk. With $5,500–$6,000 now in focus, this move looks less like a peak and more like the opening chapter of a larger global reset.
PEPE Trades at $0.00000497 — Weekly Structure Setting Up a Major Move
$PEPE is trading around $0.00000497, holding above multi‑week support. The chart highlights a broad accumulation range, with traders watching for a potential macro breakout.
Key Levels from the Chart 👇
Support Zone: Multiple blue demand areas stacked beneath current price, showing strong historical buying interest. Mid‑Range Resistance: $0.000008–$0.000010 region acting as the first major hurdle. Breakout Target: $0.00001410, marked as the next significant weekly resistance. Macro Low: Deep support around the lower blue zones if weakness returns.
Market Structure 🔹
Price action shows long‑term consolidation, typical of accumulation phases before expansion. The projection arrow suggests a potential multi‑week climb toward $0.00001410 if current support continues to hold. Weekly timeframe structure favors patience — slow grind, then expansion.
📌 Outlook: $PEPE is coiling on the weekly chart — holding above support keeps the path open toward $0.00001410, while losing the lower blue zones would delay the bullish scenario.
📊 XAUUSDT at $5,202 — Approaching Key Support After a Sharp Decline
XAUUSDT is trading near $5,202 following a strong downside move from recent highs. Price is now moving toward a defined support area, which will determine whether the broader trend can stabilize.
Key Technical Levels
Support Zone: Highlighted region below current price — primary area to monitor for a potential reaction. Trendline Support: Uptrend structure still intact but currently being tested. Recent High: $5,625, marking the upper boundary of the latest swing.
Market Structure
Gold has experienced a notable correction, but the broader trend remains upward as long as the trendline and support zone hold. The chart indicates a possible continuation into the support region before any attempt at recovery.
A strong reaction from this zone would confirm trend continuation. A breakdown below support would shift momentum and open the door to deeper retracement levels.
📌 Outlook XAUUSDT is entering a critical area. Holding the support zone keeps the bullish structure intact and allows for a potential rebound.
Failure to hold would indicate a shift in market sentiment and a move toward lower levels.
Gold and Silver Rally as Market Conditions Begin to Resemble 2008
Gold and silver are moving sharply higher at a time when global markets are showing clear signs of strain. The combination of rising precious‑metal prices, stretched equity valuations, elevated geopolitical tension, and growing concerns around debt and currency stability has led many traders to draw comparisons to the environment that developed ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. The similarities are not superficial — they are grounded in data and market behavior. Below is a structured breakdown based on verified research.
1. What the Data Shows: Gold and Silver in Strong Demand Gold: Record Demand, Record Prices, Record Value According to the World Gold Council, 2025 marked a historic year for gold: Total gold demand (including OTC) exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time.$XAU set 53 new all‑time highs in 2025.The total value of gold demand reached $555 billion, a 45% increase year‑over‑year.
The World Bank’s 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook confirmed that precious metals — led by gold — reached new highs due to geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty, and shifting global risk appetite. In early 2026, CNBC reported gold breaking above $4,800/oz, driven by trade‑related concerns and tariff discussions, with analysts projecting potential targets between $5,000 and $7,000. This is not a typical bullish trend. It reflects a broad repricing of gold’s role in portfolios during periods of elevated macro risk.
Silver: A Strong Move Supported by Both Monetary and Industrial Demand Silver has shown even more volatility than gold: 2025 saw silver deliver a significant rebound, reaching new highs before sharp pullbacks and rapid recoveries.By late 2025, silver had more than doubled from the start of the year.It broke a 45‑year‑old all‑time high set in 1980. Analysts describe the current environment as a combination of: Monetary demandIndustrial demandPolicy‑driven liquidity shifts Several 2025 reviews noted that silver has, at times, taken on a role similar to gold during periods of geopolitical tension. Both metals are behaving in a way that typically appears when investors are preparing for potential instability.
2. Why This Environment Resembles 2008 The 2008 crisis was ultimately about a breakdown in confidence — in banks, credit markets, ratings, and policy direction. Precious metals tend to rise when that type of erosion begins to appear. Key parallels supported by research: • Strong flows into defensive assets In the months leading into the 2008 downturn, gold and silver began rising steadily as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. Today, the pattern is similar. • Central bank accumulation at near‑record levels Central banks have been major buyers of gold in 2024 and 2025, driven by: Reserve diversificationDe‑dollarizationLong‑term risk management • New highs combined with elevated volatility Both metals are breaking historical levels while showing rapid price swings — a pattern that typically appears when markets are adjusting to deeper structural risks. • Historical comparison Between 2008 and 2011, silver nearly went vertical, and gold entered a multi‑year expansion as the world processed the financial crisis. The current setup — new highs, strong demand, and macro uncertainty — shares several structural similarities.
3. The Benner Cycle Perspective: Expansion, Panic, Hard Times The chart you referenced is based on the Samuel Benner cycles, which outline alternating phases of: High‑price periodsPanic yearsLow‑price accumulation phases While not a precise forecasting tool, the concept highlights a recurring pattern: Long expansions lead to overvaluationOvervaluation is followed by correction or panicPanic is followed by accumulation and recovery Gold and silver rising while risk assets appear stretched aligns with what traders typically see near the end of a cycle.
4. What’s actually driving the current precious‑metal spike? Based on verified research, several core drivers stand out: → Geopolitical and macro uncertainty The World Bank and World Gold Council both highlight geopolitical tensions, war risk, trade conflicts, and political instability as key reasons investors are rotating into gold. When the future looks unstable, capital hides in assets that: Don’t depend on any single governmentCan’t be printedHave deep, global liquidity Gold and increasingly silver fit that bill.
→ Inflation, Real Rates, and Currency Concerns Research shows that gold performs strongly when: Inflation remains above targetReal interest rates are low or negativeFiscal sustainability becomes a concern This environment resembles the post‑2008 period, but with higher global debt and more complex financial linkages.
→ Central Bank and Institutional Positioning Central banks have been adding gold to reserves at some of the fastest rates in decades. At the same time: Gold ETFs have seen significant inflowsSilver participation has increased across both retail and institutional channels When both sovereign and institutional capital move in the same direction, it typically reflects a strategic shift rather than short‑term speculation.
5. Are We Actually in a 2008‑Style Setup? The similarities: Strong demand for defensive assetsElevated volatility across risk marketsHigh leverage and stretched valuationsGrowing concerns about policy directionCentral banks accumulating hard assets These are classic pre‑crisis signals. The differences: The 2008 trigger was a concentrated credit‑market failure.Today’s risks are more distributed:Sovereign debtFiscal deficitsGeopolitical fragmentationCurrency realignmentDe‑globalization The system is more regulated than in 2008, but also more interconnected and more leveraged. This is not a repeat of 2008 — but the underlying dynamics share important similarities.
6. What Gold and Silver Are Signaling When both metals rise strongly while risk assets appear stable, they are not signaling optimism — they are signaling caution. They indicate that: Large investors are hedging against tail risksConfidence in fiat and policy direction is weakening at the marginThe probability of a disruptive event is increasing This is why the current environment feels similar to 2008: not because the charts match, but because capital is behaving the same way.
Gold and Silver Rally as Market Conditions Begin to Resemble 2008
Gold and silver are moving sharply higher at a time when global markets are showing clear signs of strain. The combination of rising precious‑metal prices, stretched equity valuations, elevated geopolitical tension, and growing concerns around debt and currency stability has led many traders to draw comparisons to the environment that developed ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. The similarities are not superficial — they are grounded in data and market behavior. Below is a structured breakdown based on verified research.
1. What the Data Shows: Gold and Silver in Strong Demand Gold: Record Demand, Record Prices, Record Value According to the World Gold Council, 2025 marked a historic year for gold: Total gold demand (including OTC) exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time.$XAU set 53 new all‑time highs in 2025.The total value of gold demand reached $555 billion, a 45% increase year‑over‑year.
The World Bank’s 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook confirmed that precious metals — led by gold — reached new highs due to geopolitical tension, economic uncertainty, and shifting global risk appetite. In early 2026, CNBC reported gold breaking above $4,800/oz, driven by trade‑related concerns and tariff discussions, with analysts projecting potential targets between $5,000 and $7,000. This is not a typical bullish trend. It reflects a broad repricing of gold’s role in portfolios during periods of elevated macro risk.
Silver: A Strong Move Supported by Both Monetary and Industrial Demand Silver has shown even more volatility than gold: 2025 saw silver deliver a significant rebound, reaching new highs before sharp pullbacks and rapid recoveries.By late 2025, silver had more than doubled from the start of the year.It broke a 45‑year‑old all‑time high set in 1980. Analysts describe the current environment as a combination of: Monetary demandIndustrial demandPolicy‑driven liquidity shifts Several 2025 reviews noted that silver has, at times, taken on a role similar to gold during periods of geopolitical tension. Both metals are behaving in a way that typically appears when investors are preparing for potential instability.
2. Why This Environment Resembles 2008 The 2008 crisis was ultimately about a breakdown in confidence — in banks, credit markets, ratings, and policy direction. Precious metals tend to rise when that type of erosion begins to appear. Key parallels supported by research: • Strong flows into defensive assets In the months leading into the 2008 downturn, gold and silver began rising steadily as investors reduced exposure to risk assets. Today, the pattern is similar. • Central bank accumulation at near‑record levels Central banks have been major buyers of gold in 2024 and 2025, driven by: Reserve diversificationDe‑dollarizationLong‑term risk management • New highs combined with elevated volatility Both metals are breaking historical levels while showing rapid price swings — a pattern that typically appears when markets are adjusting to deeper structural risks. • Historical comparison Between 2008 and 2011, silver nearly went vertical, and gold entered a multi‑year expansion as the world processed the financial crisis. The current setup — new highs, strong demand, and macro uncertainty — shares several structural similarities.
3. The Benner Cycle Perspective: Expansion, Panic, Hard Times The chart you referenced is based on the Samuel Benner cycles, which outline alternating phases of: High‑price periodsPanic yearsLow‑price accumulation phases While not a precise forecasting tool, the concept highlights a recurring pattern: Long expansions lead to overvaluationOvervaluation is followed by correction or panicPanic is followed by accumulation and recovery Gold and silver rising while risk assets appear stretched aligns with what traders typically see near the end of a cycle.
4. What’s actually driving the current precious‑metal spike? Based on verified research, several core drivers stand out: → Geopolitical and macro uncertainty The World Bank and World Gold Council both highlight geopolitical tensions, war risk, trade conflicts, and political instability as key reasons investors are rotating into gold. When the future looks unstable, capital hides in assets that: Don’t depend on any single governmentCan’t be printedHave deep, global liquidity Gold and increasingly silver fit that bill.
→ Inflation, Real Rates, and Currency Concerns Research shows that gold performs strongly when: Inflation remains above targetReal interest rates are low or negativeFiscal sustainability becomes a concern This environment resembles the post‑2008 period, but with higher global debt and more complex financial linkages.
→ Central Bank and Institutional Positioning Central banks have been adding gold to reserves at some of the fastest rates in decades. At the same time: Gold ETFs have seen significant inflowsSilver participation has increased across both retail and institutional channels When both sovereign and institutional capital move in the same direction, it typically reflects a strategic shift rather than short‑term speculation.
5. Are We Actually in a 2008‑Style Setup? The similarities: Strong demand for defensive assetsElevated volatility across risk marketsHigh leverage and stretched valuationsGrowing concerns about policy directionCentral banks accumulating hard assets These are classic pre‑crisis signals. The differences: The 2008 trigger was a concentrated credit‑market failure.Today’s risks are more distributed:Sovereign debtFiscal deficitsGeopolitical fragmentationCurrency realignmentDe‑globalization The system is more regulated than in 2008, but also more interconnected and more leveraged. This is not a repeat of 2008 — but the underlying dynamics share important similarities.
6. What Gold and Silver Are Signaling When both metals rise strongly while risk assets appear stable, they are not signaling optimism — they are signaling caution. They indicate that: Large investors are hedging against tail risksConfidence in fiat and policy direction is weakening at the marginThe probability of a disruptive event is increasing This is why the current environment feels similar to 2008: not because the charts match, but because capital is behaving the same way.
Thank you so much for the win @Binance Square Official this is an opportunity for me to keep creating quality content over quantity and grow my influence in Binance square
Binance Square Official
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Congratulations, @Crypto_Robinhood @koinmilyoner @ATOM B @Crypto Clash @1000DAYSCRYPTO , you've won the 1BNB surprise drop from Binance Square on Jan 29 for your content. Keep it up and continue to share good quality insights with unique value
If you’ve been following the previous analysis on $ETH , price failed to hold the $2,900–$3,100 mid‑range and is now trading around $2,805, sitting right inside the major support zone highlighted on the chart.
What’s next on the chart? From the current structure, ETH is showing clear weakness — the daily candle closed deep into support, and buyers haven’t shown a strong reaction yet. With momentum leaning down, the chart points toward the next major level around $2,200, which is the closest liquidity area below.
If price breaks cleanly under this $2,600–$2,800 zone, the move toward $2,200 becomes the most probable scenario, as there’s very little support in between. NFA — this is just my view on ETH based on the current chart.
ETH Trades at $2,985 — Mid‑Range Support Holding Strong
$ETH is trading around $2,985, stabilizing inside a key mid‑range zone. The chart highlights price holding above support with an ascending trendline still guiding the broader structure upward.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support $2,700–$2,900: Strong demand zone keeping bulls in control. Mid‑Range $2,900–$3,100: Current consolidation area. Resistance $3,300–$3,500: Next major upside target if momentum continues.
🔹 Market Structure
$ETH is respecting the ascending trendline, maintaining a constructive bullish structure. Price is currently sitting in the middle blue zone, showing healthy consolidation after recent gains. The projection arrow suggests a potential move from $2,900–$3,100 toward the $3,300–$3,500 resistance band. Holding above $2,900 keeps the bullish continuation scenario intact.
📌 Outlook: ETH looks poised for continuation — defending $2,900 opens the door for a push toward $3,300–$3,500, while losing this zone would weaken short‑term momentum.
LTC at $65.33 — Testing Lower Levels After Rejecting Resistance
$LTC is trading near $65.33, following a clear rejection from the $70–$72 resistance zone. The chart outlines a continuation setup toward the next support level if sellers maintain control.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $70–$72 — the highlighted supply region where price failed to break through. Immediate Support: $63.21 — the next downside level marked on the chart. Current Price: $65.33, trading below the short‑term structure.
Market Structure
LTC remains in a short‑term bearish sequence after rejecting the upper zone. The move away from $70–$72 confirms that sellers are active at that level, and momentum currently favors a continuation toward $63.21. A clean reaction at $63.21 will determine whether price stabilizes or extends lower. Reclaiming $70–$72 would be required to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.
📌 Outlook LTC is positioned in a downward continuation setup. As long as price remains below $70–$72, the path toward $63.21 remains the primary scenario. A strong bounce from support would be the first sign of structural improvement.
PAXG at $5,578 — Evaluating the Current Retracement Within the Uptrend
$PAXG is trading near $5,578, pulling back from recent highs while remaining inside a broader bullish structure. The chart highlights key Fibonacci retracement levels that will guide the next directional move.
Key Technical Levels
Primary Support: $4,778 — major structural level and the downside reference for trend integrity. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: 0.382, 0.500, 0.618 These levels define the corrective zone currently being tested. Upside Objective: A recovery toward the 0.618 extension if buyers regain control.
Market Structure
PAXG has maintained a steady upward trajectory over several months. The current pullback aligns with typical corrective behavior inside a strong trend, with price reacting around the Fibonacci cluster. A sustained hold above $4,778 keeps the broader bullish structure intact and supports the scenario of a continuation toward the higher extension levels. A breakdown below that level would indicate a shift in momentum and invalidate the current trend structure.
📌 Outlook PAXG is in a controlled retracement phase. If price stabilizes within the Fibonacci zone and buyers step back in, the next move toward the 0.618 extension becomes the primary target. Failure to hold $4,778 would signal a deeper corrective phase.
🔥BNB at $890 — Approaching Key Support Within the Ascending Channel
$BNB is trading near $890, moving toward the lower boundary of its established ascending channel. Price is nearing an important support area that has consistently provided stability during previous pullbacks.
Key Technical Levels
Channel Support: Lower boundary of the rising structure. Support Zone: Around $850, highlighted as a region where buyers have previously reacted. Lower Levels: $790 and $736 if the channel fails. Upside Objective: A rebound from support would position price toward the upper channel region.
Market Structure
BNB has maintained a clear upward channel, respecting both boundaries with precision. The current move toward support aligns with the broader trend and does not yet indicate structural weakness. If buyers defend the $850 area, the next rotation toward the upper channel becomes the logical continuation of the trend.
📌 Outlook $BNB is approaching a decisive level. Holding the lower channel support keeps the bullish structure intact. A breakdown would shift momentum and open the door to deeper retracement levels.
Bitcoin Drops Below $88,000 — A U.S.‑Session Driven Reversal
Bitcoin fell back under $88,000 after briefly pushing above $90,000, reversing gains made during the Asian session. This pattern has been consistent for weeks: Asia buys, the U.S. session sells. According to multiple reports, $BTC ’s decline coincided directly with weakness in Nasdaq futures, which dragged crypto sentiment down. Major altcoins followed the move, with ETH, SOL, XRP, and DOGE all retracing alongside BTC. This reinforces the growing correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech equities — a relationship that has strengthened significantly since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Gold Hits Another All‑Time High — Safe‑Haven Demand Surges
While Bitcoin corrected, $XAU printed yet another all‑time high, continuing its explosive multi‑month rally. This divergence highlights a key macro trend: Investors are rotating into safe‑haven assetsGold is benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, rate‑cut expectations, and a weakening U.S. dollarInstitutional demand for gold remains extremely strong Gold’s strength during BTC weakness suggests markets are hedging against volatility rather than chasing risk.
U.S. Stock Futures Open Green — A Risk-On Signal? Despite BTC’s drop, U.S. stock futures opened in the green: Nasdaq futures: +0.15%S&P 500 futures: +0.19% This is notable because earlier reports showed Nasdaq futures were dragging Bitcoin down during the previous session. Today’s green open suggests: Tech stocks are stabilizingInvestors are cautiously rotating back into equitiesThe market is preparing for upcoming macro data releases However, BTC did not follow equities higher — a sign that crypto is currently more sensitive to liquidity flows and U.S. session selling pressure than to broad equity sentiment.
🔍 Why Bitcoin Fell While Everything Else Rose 1. U.S. Market Sell Pressure BTC has repeatedly sold off at the U.S. open for nearly three months. This is likely due to: ETF rebalancingInstitutional hedgingAlgorithmic sell programsMacro‑driven risk management 2. Strength in Gold = Risk Hedging When gold hits ATHs while BTC drops, it signals: Investors are seeking safetyBTC is being treated as a risk assetGold is absorbing capital fleeing volatility 3. Equity Futures Green, But Not Strong Enough Even though Nasdaq and S&P futures are positive, the gains are modest. BTC remains highly sensitive to even small shifts in tech‑sector sentiment.
📌 Final Takeaway Bitcoin’s drop below $88,000 is part of a broader pattern where U.S. market activity triggers sell‑pressure, even when Asia and Europe trade bullishly. Meanwhile, gold’s new all‑time high shows investors are hedging aggressively, and U.S. stock futures in the green indicate cautious optimism in equities — but not enough to lift BTC. This divergence between BTC and gold is a classic macro signal: Markets are preparing for volatility.
If you’ve been following the previous analysis on $ASTER , price failed to bounce from the $0.67–$0.68 support and is now trading around $0.646, sitting right inside the final demand zone on the chart.
What’s next on the chart?
From the current structure, $ASTER is showing clear weakness — candles are closing below the previous support, and there’s no strong bullish reaction in this zone. With momentum leaning down, the chart points toward the next major level around $0.55, which is the closest liquidity area below.
If price breaks cleanly under this $0.64 zone, the move toward $0.55 becomes the most probable scenario, as there’s very little support in between. NFA — this is just my view on $ASTER based on the current chart.
$ASTER is trading around $0.678, sitting right on a major support zone. The chart highlights a pivotal level where buyers and sellers are battling for short‑term direction.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support $0.67–$0.68: Blue demand zone and the key level to defend. Resistance $0.743: First upside target if price rebounds. Extended Resistance $0.817: Higher target if momentum accelerates. Low $0.55: Major downside level if support fails.
🔹 Market Structure
Price is consolidating directly on support, making this a crucial decision area. The chart shows two scenarios: Bounce: A move toward $0.743, with potential extension to $0.817. Breakdown: A drop below the blue zone, exposing $0.55.
Holding above $0.678 keeps the bullish rebound scenario alive.
📌 Outlook: $ASTER is at a critical inflection point — defending $0.67–$0.68 opens the door for a push toward $0.743–$0.817, while losing this zone would shift momentum bearish.
Gold isn’t just climbing — it’s repricing itself in real time.
$XAU ripping through the $5,100–$5,300 zone wasn’t a gradual breakout, it was a shock move. Over 20% in less than a month, four-figure gains per ounce, and repeated record highs in days. Historically, gold only behaves like this when confidence in the system starts cracking — the last comparable candle showed up in 1980.
The drivers are tightly connected. Geopolitical stress is no longer isolated; trade threats, political pressure, and global uncertainty are stacking on top of each other. At the same time, a weakening dollar and unclear Fed direction are eroding faith in fiat stability. When that happens, capital doesn’t rotate — it runs.
Technically, this isn’t a normal bull trend. Old resistance has been left far below, pullbacks are instantly absorbed, and price action is vertical, a classic sign of early commodity super-cycles. Layer in aggressive central-bank buying and accelerating ETF inflows, and supply simply can’t keep up.
When gold — the market’s anchor — starts moving like this, it’s not chasing returns. It’s signaling risk. With $5,500–$6,000 now in focus, this move looks less like a peak and more like the opening chapter of a larger global reset.
What Actually Broke HYPE and What Changes From Here
Over the past two months, $HYPE slid from the $45–50 zone down to around $20.
This wasn’t noise, and it wasn’t a broad market sell-off.
The move came from three clear sources of sell pressure — all visible on-chain — and each of them is now either resolved or close to running dry.
This piece breaks down what actually drove the decline, and why the structure ahead looks very different from where HYPE stood two months ago.
1. Team Unlocks: Why the Market Misread Supply
Many people assumed HYPE’s ~9.9M monthly team unlocks meant huge, constant sell pressure. That wasn’t the case. Here’s why unlocks don’t equal instant market selling: ↠ Unlocked ≠ Distributed – tokens may sit idle. ↠ Distributed ≠ Sold – recipients don’t always sell. ↠ Sold ≠ Marketed – some sales happen OTC, away from the open market. On-chain data from the first two unlocks (qwantifyio) shows the reality: Month 1 – 9.92M unlocked → only ~290k actually hit the market. Month 2 – 9.92M unlocked → 0 sold on the market. In other words, only about 7–10% of the unlocks created real sell pressure. The rest never affected market price. The key lesson: headline unlock numbers can be misleading. Always check how much actually reaches the market.
If this pattern continues, team unlocks aren’t a sudden market shock — they’re a slow, declining trickle, not a cliff. The main variable is how the tokens are sold. For example, if some supply goes OTC to entities like PURR DAT (through Flowdesk), it lowers the amount they need to buy on the open market. That changes where demand shows up, but not whether demand exists. The takeaway: this source of selling was widely misunderstood and is now mostly priced in.
2. Leverage Reset: Why Longs Got Hit
HYPE entered Q4 with a risky derivatives setup.
Most positions on Hyperliquid were long, creating an unbalanced market. This discouraged new buyers and gave others an incentive to front-run liquidations — and that’s exactly what happened. The result: many long positions were closed, resetting the market’s leverage and reducing overall risk.
What happened next was anything but subtle: Mass long liquidations across multiple venues.Forced selling from money-market positions, where users lent HYPE,borrowed USDC, and used it to buy more HYPE. These liquidations often don’t show clearly on public charts, but their impact was real. Even without big liquidations, many users had to sell HYPE early to repay loans or add collateral. Today, the leverage environment looks very different — far less concentrated and risky than before.
Even though over $150M in long positions remain at $15, most of the aggressive longs have already been cleared. Liquidations are now more evenly distributed across Binance, OKX, and Hyperliquid.The reflexive downside from leveraged positions has mostly played out. This alone isn’t bullish—but it’s a necessary step for any future upward movement to take hold.
3. The Tornado Cluster & the Anonymous CEX Buyer
This was the biggest factor weighing on HYPE, not because of their sales directly, but because many participants front-ran them—selling, shorting, or refusing to bid. A group of 16 addresses, originally funded via Tornado Cash, accumulated around 4.4M HYPE at an average price of ~$8.8. Starting in early January, they executed a mechanical liquidation strategy: One wallet unstaked per day Immediate TWAP selling on each unstake No effort to optimize execution Altogether, this accounted for over $80M of supply, which under normal conditions would likely have pushed HYPE well below $10. But it didn’t—and that’s where the story takes a turn.
As the Tornado Cash-funded cluster began selling aggressively on HyperCore, a clear pattern emerged: The cluster sold HYPE on HyperCore Wintermute stepped in, buying on HyperCore Wintermute then sent HYPE to Bybit (0xe401A6A38024d8f5aB88f1B08cad476cCaCA45E8) On Bybit, Wintermute sold to an anonymous buyer This kind of flow isn’t new—Wintermute has run similar arbitrage loops across multiple assets on Hyperliquid for over a year. What changed was the scale and speed: once the Tornado cluster started liquidating, this arbitrage loop intensified sharply, amplifying market impact.
Importantly, Wintermute wasn’t buying to be bullish.
Their role was to move inventory from on-chain sellers to a large, persistent off-chain buyer, absorbing supply that could have otherwise flooded HyperCore. Over the last 30 days, Wintermute arbitraged more than $70M worth of HYPE—even more than the Assistance Fund’s net purchases during the same period.
If you’re wondering who was buying HYPE on HyperCore over the past 30 days, here’s a breakdown:
Top 3: ResolvLabs – running a delta-neutral position Top 4: Auros_global – market-making, no directional exposure Top 5–7: Anonymous buyers – directional exposure on HyperCore Top 8: Likely SilkBtc – delta-neutral Top 9: Likely ManifoldTrading (or founder Jae Chung) – market-making, probably directional Top 10: Likely Fern82L – early Hyperliquid supporter, directional Additionally, mlmabc identified another separate cluster likely belonging to PURR DAT. This shows a mix of neutral and directional activity, helping explain how liquidity and demand were distributed across HyperCore.
Since that message, many new addresses have appeared following the same pattern—staking 700–900 HYPE each—indicating that PURR DAT is still accumulating. Execution for this entity was done through Flowdesk, and the HYPE came from Bybit, making it highly likely that the anonymous CEX buyer absorbing Wintermute’s flow was PURR DAT.
This wasn’t the only source of selling. Alongside the Tornado cluster, Continue Capital emerged as another notable seller, offloading roughly 1.3M HYPE (~$28M) over about two weeks. They still hold nearly 800k HYPE staked, but so far it remains locked. Their selling followed a steady, mechanical pattern, with no attempt to optimize price. On top of this, the Trove team also sold the 500k HYPE they bought a few months ago. Despite these combined sales, the price held. It’s important to frame this correctly: selling at $20–25 is far better than selling at $50+, because in the latter case PURR DAT would have needed significantly more capital to absorb the same supply. At this point, most of this selling pressure is finished or nearly finished. There are likely no other large sellers active in the market, at least for now. So, What Changes Now? With the main sources of forced selling largely resolved, the focus shifts from “who is selling?” to “what remains to absorb supply?” 1. PURR DAT’s Remaining Firepower Public estimates suggest PURR DAT still has significant capital even after absorbing the Tornado cluster and Continue Capital’s selling. MLM calculated that they spent $67.6M on the Tornado cluster. In recent days, new addresses following the same pattern have appeared: 0x5f46cba327079feb5a46799ab329f36974a89f5e: 117k HYPE0x69e914280fd1356b2abaef78439d112976bab985: 124k HYPE0x05bc24d10cbbae0677f284e6f280ebd27a0ed761: 103k HYPE0x7eacdc425e99eaf52ce75ce9b5fc03dce7e2f901: 85K HYPE0x0ad0878cc9d8ce470886bc4a47c2ba5186980eec: 100K HYPE At an average price of $21, these holdings add up to $11M, bringing the total absorbed supply to roughly $78.6M. Assuming: They initially spent $90M buying HYPE They may spend $30M buying back their own shares this year This leaves about $170M in cash to absorb HYPE. This doesn’t mean aggressive spot buying or guaranteed upside—it means that residual sell pressure, like remaining team unlocks, can be absorbed without creating extra downward pressure.
2. Perpetuals Market Share Although total volumes remain below all-time highs, Hyperliquid’s perps market share compared to CEXs is trending higher again.
Open interest has already surpassed previous relative peaks against venues like Bybit, showing that the platform’s liquidity and trading activity are strengthening.
Market share leads revenue. Revenue leads Assistance Fund flows.
3. HIP-3 Volumes
Since the launch of markets_xyz, HIP-3 volumes have grown significantly, introducing new exotic markets like Oil and US Bonds. On recent weekdays, daily HIP-3 volume exceeded $1B (Data from asxn_r) This shows that trading activity and liquidity on HIP-3 are picking up strongly, supporting the broader market.
TradeXYZ remains the leading contributor, generating >$10M in annualized revenue.
4. Assistance Fund Behavior
The Assistance Fund is currently underwater, with an average cost of around $23.6. Historically, this level has aligned with local market bottoms. Recent activity shows: Consistent buying above 60k HYPE/day Multiple days exceeding 100k HYPE/day This steady buying indicates the fund is actively supporting the market, helping absorb residual selling pressure.
It is important to note that this does not imply an uptrend. Rather, it means the Assistance Fund is burning millions of HYPE per day, and that burn rate increases as the price declines.
5. Portfolio Margin
The upcoming portfolio margin feature will allow users to use a broader set of assets as collateral at the same time, increasing flexibility and efficiency in managing positions.
This significantly improves capital efficiency, making delta-neutral strategies much more effective. Sophisticated traders and market makers can deploy more size with the same capital. The likely outcome: higher open interest, which drives larger volumes, increased revenues, and more HYPE buybacks.
Two months ago, HYPE was facing: Uncertainty around team unlocks Excess leverage in the market Large, aggressive sellers Today, the picture looks very different: Unlocks are now understood Leverage has largely reset The Tornado cluster and other big sellers are finished (or nearly) Remaining large sales can likely be absorbed without disrupting price
This doesn’t mean HYPE will spike tomorrow, but it does remove the structural reasons for its previous decline.
For almost three months now, #bitcoin has followed an oddly consistent rhythm: strength overnight, stability into Europe, then selling pressure the moment U.S. markets wake up. It’s not emotional retail selling — it’s measured, repeatable, and large enough to bend global price action.
The data explains why. Since spot ETFs entered the picture, the U.S. session has become the center of gravity. A persistently negative Coinbase premium shows American spot markets leading the sell side, while institutions rebalance ETFs, hedge exposure, and execute volatility-based algorithms right at peak liquidity. Add macro stress — rates, bonds, politics, dollar swings — and $BTC becomes a risk asset that gets trimmed first.
What makes this stand out is contrast: Asia keeps accumulating, Europe mostly holds, and the U.S. distributes. That daily imbalance didn’t exist before Wall Street arrived. Crypto didn’t change — its participants did.
History suggests these phases don’t last forever. When U.S. selling finally dries up or flips to buying, Bitcoin has a habit of moving fast. This looks less like weakness… and more like a coiled spring under institutional control.
$BTC Leads, $ETH Builds — Reading the Market at Key Levels
Bitcoin hovering near $89,900 while Ethereum steadies around $3,030 tells a very specific story about where the market is right now. This isn’t euphoria — it’s positioning.
BTC strength at these levels usually isn’t retail-led. It’s driven by sustained ETF demand, corporate balance-sheet exposure, and long-term capital treating Bitcoin as a macro hedge. At the same time, miner behavior points to tightening supply: fewer coins hitting exchanges, more conviction to hold, and a structure that supports higher prices even during quiet sessions.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is doing what it often does early in expansion cycles — consolidating while capital concentrates in Bitcoin. ETH around $3K reflects reduced liquid supply from staking and short-term caution from institutions, not weakness. Historically, this phase tends to precede rotation once BTC establishes dominance.
Zooming out, liquidity is clearly returning. Stablecoin activity is picking up, derivatives are active but not overheated, and long-term holders remain patient. That combination usually supports continuation, even if volatility increases near psychological levels.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is setting the pace for this cycle. Ethereum is building underneath it. The spread between them isn’t a warning — it’s a signal of where we are in the rotation timeline.
CC Trades at $0.171 — Watching for Breakout Above Key Resistance
$CC is trading around $0.171, sitting just below a major resistance level. The chart highlights a potential breakout setup forming as price continues to build structure above support.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support Zone: Blue demand area beneath current price — key for maintaining bullish structure. Resistance $0.183: Critical breakout level that price must reclaim. Target $0.306: Major upside target if the breakout confirms.
🔹 Market Structure
CC is consolidating just under $0.183, a level that has repeatedly acted as resistance. The chart’s projection shows a potential retest of support, followed by a breakout toward $0.306. As long as price holds above the blue zone, the bullish continuation scenario remains valid.
📌 Outlook: $CC is coiling beneath resistance — a clean break above $0.183 could open the path toward $0.306, while losing the support zone would delay the setup.
📈 BCH Trades at $599 — Range Compression Before the Next Move
$BCH is trading around $599, sitting between a well‑defined support zone and a clear resistance band. The chart highlights a tightening structure, suggesting a potential breakout setup.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support $563–$580: Strong demand zone where buyers have consistently stepped in. Resistance $630–$637: Major supply zone capping price on multiple attempts. Mid‑Range $600: Current equilibrium level.
🔹 Market Structure
BCH is consolidating between two blue zones, forming a tight range. A breakout above $630–$637 would open the door for a stronger continuation move. A breakdown below $563 would shift momentum bearish and expose lower levels. Price currently hovering near $600 signals indecision but also coiling energy.
📌 Outlook: $BCH is gearing up for a decisive move — reclaiming $630–$637 would trigger bullish continuation, while losing $563–$580 would invalidate the setup.
PIPPIN Trades at $0.509 — Trendline Breakout + Retest Setup
$PIPPIN is trading around $0.509, breaking cleanly above its descending trendline and pushing through a key support‑turned‑resistance zone. The structure now leans bullish as long as price holds above the reclaimed area.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support $0.45: Blue zone now acting as a potential retest area. Resistance $0.568: First upside reaction level. Target $0.760: Major breakout target if momentum continues. Lower Levels $0.40–$0.35: Downside exposure if the retest fails.
🔹 Market Structure
Price has broken the descending trendline, signaling a shift in momentum. A clean move above the $0.45 zone suggests buyers are in control. The chart’s projection shows a likely pullback into $0.45 before continuation toward $0.760.
Holding above $0.45 keeps the bullish scenario intact.
📌 Outlook: $PIPPIN looks primed for continuation — a successful retest of $0.45 could fuel a move toward $0.568, then $0.760, while losing the zone would weaken the setup.
$ASTER is trading around $0.678, sitting right on a major support zone. The chart highlights a pivotal level where buyers and sellers are battling for short‑term direction.
🔹 Key Levels from the Chart
Support $0.67–$0.68: Blue demand zone and the key level to defend. Resistance $0.743: First upside target if price rebounds. Extended Resistance $0.817: Higher target if momentum accelerates. Low $0.55: Major downside level if support fails.
🔹 Market Structure
Price is consolidating directly on support, making this a crucial decision area. The chart shows two scenarios: Bounce: A move toward $0.743, with potential extension to $0.817. Breakdown: A drop below the blue zone, exposing $0.55.
Holding above $0.678 keeps the bullish rebound scenario alive.
📌 Outlook: $ASTER is at a critical inflection point — defending $0.67–$0.68 opens the door for a push toward $0.743–$0.817, while losing this zone would shift momentum bearish.