Steven_Research

Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025

Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7

It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!

Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!

Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍

Happy new year 2026!

OPENAI SECRETLY BUILDING A BIOMETRIC SOCIAL NETWORK - $WLD PRICE INCREASES BY 40%

OpenAI is said to be secretly developing a new social networking platform.

This platform aims to ensure that users are real people and not bots (automated software), and OpenAI is considering using strict biometric authentication methods.

Methods being considered include iris scanning (similar to the Orb device from the World project - formerly known as Worldcoin) or using Apple's Face ID.

=> The main goal of this project is to create a "clean" social networking environment where there is no presence of bots - an issue that platforms like X (formerly Twitter) are facing very harshly.

- Currently, this news is reported by Forbes and has not yet been officially announced by OpenAI or Sam Altman.

- The token price $WLD surged by 40% and then gradually decreased after the news, currently standing at $0.53.

CEO BITGET SIGNALS TO BUY BITCOIN

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, has just shared an important technical indicator showing that the cryptocurrency market is entering an ideal buying zone for long-term investors.

- The Bitget research team has focused on a key measure: The Crypto Market Cap to Stablecoin Market Cap Ratio.

1. Essentially, this indicator reflects the correlation between:

- Potential buying power: The amount of Stablecoin (cash) available in the hands of investors.

- Market size: The total value of cryptocurrencies that this cash flow can be poured into.

2. Based on historical testing data, @GracyBitget has set two important benchmarks to determine action:

- BUY Signal
🔵
: When this ratio is less than 11. This means that the amount of cash waiting is significantly large compared to the market cap, ready to push prices up.

- SELL Signal
🔴
: When this ratio is greater than 15. At this point, the market cap has become too large compared to the available cash reserves, signaling a high risk of correction.

3. Current status: Buying opportunity?

- Currently, this indicator is at 10.28. According to the strategy above, the market is currently in the Buy Signal zone.

- What are your thoughts?

$TSLA LISTED ON BINANCE FUTURES – TRADE TESLA WITH USDT!

Binance has just announced the listing of the perpetual contract TSLAUSDT at 21:30 on 28/01/2026

Now, you don’t need to open a complicated international stock trading account to "long/short" Elon Musk's shares right on the familiar interface of Binance Futures.

*Trading TradFi contracts on a crypto exchange has some significant differences compared to directly buying shares:

- No ownership of shares: You are merely betting on the price movements of Tesla. You will not receive dividends and have no voting rights at shareholder meetings.

- High leverage: Binance Futures allows the use of leverage. This can help you optimize capital but also comes with the risk of account liquidation (losing all capital in a position) if the price goes against your prediction.

- Funding Fee (Funding Rate): Since this is a perpetual contract, you will have to pay (or receive) a periodic fee to maintain your position. This fee helps keep the contract price close to the actual market price of Tesla.

- Trading hours: Tesla shares listed in the U.S. have opening/closing hours according to New York time. You should check how Binance calculates prices during the time when the U.S. stock market is closed (pre-market and after-hours).

=> The future may see more stock trading pairs on Binance, for those passionate about trading.

$ENSO – Small cap, Huge Volume: Signal "Second River"?

If you missed $RIVER , you might look into Enso ($ENSO ). Although the Market Cap is only around $20M

Active trading: 24h Volume occasionally reached $1.1B (more than 50 times the market capitalization!). Weekly volatility reached +150%.

Core technology: The Intent Engine system has processed over $17B in transactions. Integration with Monad, Balancer V3, and ConcreteXYZ is turning ENSO into the "backbone" for multi-chain DeFi.

Low circulating supply: Only 21M tokens (~16%) are in circulation, creating a "scarcity" effect that helps the price easily break out when there is strong buying pressure.

Scenario: Currently adjusting around the $1.1 - $1.5 mark. If this support holds, the next target could be $3 - $4 as capital flows shift from Mid-cap projects to Low-cap.

$RIVER has scanned the rankings: Increased by 1,900% - Will it reach the mark of $100?

Capital is flowing into River Protocol ($RIVER ) – the leading project in Chain Abstraction trends. Just in January 2026, RIVER has astonished traders:

Shocking growth: From the $17 range to an ATH of $87.73 (increased by ~1,900% in one month).

Volume Perp exploded: Reached a peak of $3.5B - $6B, ranking in the Top 3-6 globally (CoinGlass). Continuous listings on major exchanges: Binance Perp,...

Momentum from "Big Players": $12 million from Maelstrom (Arthur Hayes) and $8 million from Justin Sun. The presence of satUSD on TRON and Sui is eliminating traditional Bridge barriers.

Note: The RSI index is in the overbought zone and 94% of the supply is concentrated in large wallets. Be cautious of pullbacks to the support zone of $70-$75 before a new push to $100.

Prediction Markets on Binance Smart Chain (BSC)

The prediction market on BSC has just established an important milestone with accumulated trading volume exceeding $10 billion and nominal volume reaching over $20 billion.

- Daily trading volume remains stable at the level of $200–300 million. Notably, on 10/01, a record level of $400 million/day was recorded, at the same time Open Interest (OI) peaked at $150 million.

*Leading protocols:

- Opinion (opinionlabsxyz): Currently leading with a market share ranging from 50-87%. This platform strengthens its position by integrating Chainlink Price Feeds for 24/5 stock markets. Annual revenue is estimated to reach $76 million with TVL/OI maintained at $154 million.

- Probable (0xProbable): Attracting attention with a 0% fee model and a points-based incentive program. Although the accumulated nominal volume exceeded $869 million on 22/01, on-chain data shows that caution is needed regarding the risk of Wash Trading - a systemic issue accounting for about 25% of volume on similar platforms like Polymarket.

- Predict Fun (predictdotfun): An optimal capital efficiency model when integrating the Venus protocol, allowing collateral assets to generate yield. Results achieved after the first month: $448 million nominal volume, 1.1 million bets placed, and 83 thousand active users.

- Niche platforms (Myriad, Zetarium, Xo Market): Account for about 5–10% of the remaining market share. Zetarium reports over 10 thousand participants across 453 different markets, showing diversification in prediction categories beyond Crypto.

=\u003e The sustainability of trading volume suggests that the prediction market is becoming an independent layer in DeFi.

BITCOIN IS BLEEDING - BUT MAYBE IT'S NOT THE BOTTOM YET?

1) NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

- NUPL is decreasing sharply but remains positive. Throughout Bitcoin's history, a true cycle bottom only forms when NUPL falls into negative territory – meaning most holders are in an unrealized loss state.

=> Currently: it's just "bleeding", not yet a "bottom".

2) Delta Growth Rate (Market Cap vs Realized Cap)

- This indicator has turned negative, indicating that speculative money is withdrawing.

- The market is beginning to re-evaluate based on intrinsic value; we will gradually face questions like "what is the value of $BTC?"

3) Some other data

- Bitcoin Apparent Demand has turned negative, showing a significant decline in buying demand compared to mid-2025.

- Whales holdings 1y change have started to turn negative, meaning large whales are gradually distributing after a strong accumulation cycle previously.

- Dolphin (100–1000 BTC) 30-day % change is negative, with the average holder group also beginning to take profits.

- Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative, reflecting that investors in the US/ETF are weaker than globally => a form of distribution is taking place.

4) Comparing the "bottom" points of 2018 and 2022

*The bottoms of 2018 and 2022 both had:
– Deeply negative NUPL
– Exhausted Demand
– Large holders stopping selling
– Sideways accumulation for many months

Currently in 2026:
– NUPL is not yet negative
– Demand remains negative
– Whales are still selling

5) Personal conclusion

- Personally, based on the data, I still believe the bottom for this cycle of $BTC has not yet formed.

- In the short to medium term, there is still potential for recovery, but the selling pressure from most participants is quite significant, causing considerable pressure.

- What are your thoughts?

INTEL STOCK DROPS 17% AFTER Q4/2025 REPORT

- The Q4/2025 earnings report fell short of expectations: Intel's revenue decreased by 4% compared to the same period last year, reaching only $13.7 billion, due to supply constraints and production difficulties.

- Intel forecasts Q1/2026 revenue and profit adjusted lower than market estimates, due to insufficient supply to meet demand. The company may not meet the demand for AI data center chips in the first quarter of 2026.

- Intel is struggling to meet strong AI chip demand from data centers, due to low yields of new chips (such as 18A) and capacity cuts on older lines to reduce costs. This leads to a broad industry supply shortage => Rising production costs also reduce profit margins.

- Intel is losing market share to competitors like AMD, ARM, and in-house solutions from hyperscalers (such as Nvidia's GPU). PC demand is declining, the AI PC upgrade cycle is unclear, and rising memory prices further impact sales.

- Intel is losing market share to competitors like AMD, ARM, and in-house solutions from hyperscalers (such as Nvidia's GPU). PC demand is declining, the AI PC upgrade cycle is unclear, and rising memory prices further impact sales.

=> This decline reflects the challenges in transitioning to AI and advanced chip manufacturing, but some analysts believe this could be a long-term buying opportunity if Intel resolves its production issues.

86.3% All Altcoin Failures Occurred in 2025

- In 2025, there were 11.6 million failed tokens, accounting for 86.3% of the total token failures from 2021 to 2025.

- Q4 2025 witnessed 7.7 million tokens collapse (accounting for 34.9% of total project failures), mainly due to market volatility following the cascade liquidation event on October 10.

- Also in 2025, $BTC dropped about 6%, $ETH dropped 11%, $SOL dropped 34%, and the BGCI index (excluding BTC, ETH, SOL) fell nearly 60%.

- Most altcoin tokens saw significant declines, with the average token dropping 79%. The non-Bitcoin token market has been in a bear market since December 2024, losing 44% of its market capitalization.

- Overall, 2025 was a bad year for crypto, especially for altcoins, with various reasons stemming from the large number of altcoins from pump and the fragile market liquidity.

- Some predictions for 2026 from Pantera will be updated in the next post, folks.

Ethereum $ETH has just processed a record 2.89 million daily transactions, the highest in its history.

U.S. INSIDERS ARE SELLING MORE THAN BUYING

Of the approximately 50 listed transactions, about 85% are sales or sale proposals, with only a few purchases

*for example: bought ZETA at $18.00 for 686,057 shares, bought ALMS at $17.00 for 411,764 shares.

=> Total sales value exceeds $100 million across the list, primarily from directors and senior executives in sectors such as technology, finance, and healthcare. The purchases are smaller in scale and fewer in quantity.

- Currently, the overall insider buy/sell ratio is 0.24 (meaning selling is approximately 4 times more than buying) for January 2026

- Concentrated sales events have been recorded at several companies, such as GigaCloud Technology ($GCT), Idaho Strategic Resources ($IDR), and Coastal Financial ($CCB), often through periodic selling plans under Rule 10b5-1.

=> Fintel and HedgeFollow list hundreds of Form 4 filings, with sales dominating, for example, $53.9 million of JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) shares sold by 11 insiders on January 15.

*Although the general trend is selling, there are still some notable purchases, albeit fewer and smaller in scale. Quiver Quantitative reports 88 open market purchases on January 14, including companies like Transcontinental Realty Investors ($TCI) and Staar Surgical ($STAA)

=> Overall, while the U.S. stock market is recovering, this reflects insiders' caution amid market volatility, possibly due to high valuations or underlying risks.

- What do you all think?

BEAR MARKET RALLY? IS BITCOIN REPEATING THE 2022 SCENARIO IN A DIFFERENT WAY?

The current structure is alarmingly repeating the 2022 model.

- Bitcoin has lost 365D MA, dropping about 19%, then rebounding over 21%. And now, the price $BTC is testing the 365D MA from below.

=> Currently, BTC has not reclaimed this line. This is a retest in a downtrend, not a breakout in an uptrend.

- Structurally, BTC remains below the cycle MA, and even on-chain data does not support a new bull market; selling pressure has decreased, but active buying flow has not returned yet.

=> Less bad does not mean better. This is a technical rebound due to exhausted selling, not an accumulation phase for a new upward cycle.

*We have 2 scenarios at the moment:

1- The baseline scenario remains negative. If $BTC continues to be rejected at the 365D MA, the market will form lower highs on the weekly frame – a classic characteristic of a bear market. At that point, there is a high probability that the price will return to test the old bottom, even opening up a deeper decline.

- If the price breaks up to 100k above the MA line, there will still be a chance that it will then down to lower frames like in 2022 - at that time, an event like Luna would need to trigger it.

2- More positively, as CZ calls for a bull market in 2026, Bitcoin must clearly close above the 365D MA for several consecutive weeks. Only then can we talk about a market regime shift from bear to bull, at which point a new ATH for BTC becomes feasible.

- Additionally, Bitcoin's 2-year moving average is currently around 84,500 USD. Clearly establishing below this mark will confirm a bear market, and $BTC has a high probability of reaching 6xk.

- What do you think? Which scenario is more feasible?

CZ donated 30,000 USD from the live stream to Giggle Academy $GIGGLE

From the 1-hour live, CZ earned 30k USD and pledged to donate the entire amount to free education.

During this live, he also called $BTC touching 200k "the most obvious thing in the world," while advising against blindly investing in meme coins based on his tweets

Binance completes the 34th quarterly BNB burn

Burned 1.37 million $BNB (approximately 1.28 billion USD), reducing the supply to 136 million tokens

BNB continues to be the leading sustainable deflationary coin in the market

CLARITY ACT IS A DISPUTE BETWEEN TRADFI AND CRYPTO

Web3 companies like Coinbase or Robinhood are strongly opposing this bill

- They argue that 53 banking associations just wrote a bill protecting $6.6 trillion in value => They call it the CLARITY ACT (meaning this bill was written solely to protect traditional banks)

- Traditional banks usually offer low interest rates on deposits (around 0.01-0.5% for basic accounts).

=> Meanwhile, stablecoin issuers like USDC or USDT mainly hold reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, yielding around 4-5%. If stablecoins could pass this yield to users through exchanges like Coinbase, traditional banks would lose their competitive edge.

=> A study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shows that if stablecoins offer competitive interest rates, banks could lose up to 25.9% of deposits, leading to a $1.5 trillion reduction in lending capacity.

=> The scheduled event, originally set for January 15, 2026, has been indefinitely postponed. Negotiations are still ongoing