Steven_Research

THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR SUPPORT🙇‍♂️

Steven is fortunate to be featured in the top 14 independent Researchers of Blockchain 100 2025 organized by @binance and voted by the community, in this top, Vietnam has 3 individuals included

🔸Trader: @Trading Insight_DN

🔸Independent researcher: @Steven_Research

🔸Rising star: @LinhCrypto

- Thank you to the bosses on X, the Vietnamese crypto communities for their support

- Thanks to my brothers and sisters in the team and in the SR Research community

- Thank you to my brothers and sisters on X, on Binance Square for your kindness and support

*Airdrop of shirts has been conducted on my channel @call_me_kyo, the results are available

- To my brothers and sisters who have supported, if there’s a chance, I would love to invite you all for coffee

- Hope that next year Vietnam will have more faces in this top

Once again, thank you all!🙏

Fidelity reports that the price range of $85.5K is a strong liquidity support area, with confirmation that around 430,000 $BTC has been absorbed around this area.

With the result of interest rate cuts but a rather "hawkish" tone in last night's FOMC meeting, Bitcoin is adjusting, and according to Fidelity, this area could serve as a strong support.

A whale has exchanged 1,466 $BTC ($132M now) for 43,649 $ETH ($139M now) over the past 16 days.

ETH IS BEING WITHDRAWN FROM THE EXCHANGE - ARE SHARK WALLETS ACCUMULATING?

- Whales & sharks (wallets with 100–100k ETH) have accumulated ~934,240 $ETH (~3.15 billion USD) in just 3 weeks.

- Meanwhile, retail investors have net sold ~1,041 $ETH in the most recent week

- Simultaneously, ETH exchange reserves across all platforms are declining to around ~16.6 million ETH, the lowest in many years

- The amount of ETH on exchanges is now only 8.7%, the lowest level since 2015

- The supply of staked ETH remains high, reaching 28.8% of the total supply

=> The market is in a state of mild supply squeeze, with very thin liquidity, so price movements may react quite strongly

Trump Billionaires Club – what is this game for $TRUMP ?

Last night, the meme coin from Trump Official launched an early registration for the Trump Billionaires Club game.

- This is a mobile + web game directly linked to the TRUMP memecoin. On the surface, it is a P2E game, but it may be a narrative move to keep attention on the TRUMP ecosystem after a drop of ~87% from its peak.

1. Nature of the product

- The game is developed by Freedom45Games LLC, using images of Donald Trump through a commercial license - not a product of the Trump Organization.

- Notably, the Web3 infrastructure uses OpenLoot, onboarding does not require a separate wallet, clearly targeting Web2 users more than pure crypto gamers.

=> This is not a game to compete in gameplay quality, but a game to create additional use cases for $TRUMP .

2. Gameplay & economic mechanism

- The core loop is quite simple: roll the dice, buy businesses, invest, climb the leaderboard. Monopoly + idle style, with a colorful “Trump billionaire lifestyle.”

- $TRUMP is the central currency for all actions in the game. NFTs are only cosmetic + light buffs, traded on OpenLoot. P2E here does not come from playing skill, but from: leaderboard, referral, and holding tokens.

3. Pre-register – the most important part

- All incentives are designed to attract users and create short-term demand for TRUMP.

=> The reward is ~1 million USD converted to $TRUMP , airdropped gradually over 12 weeks. Clearly, this is a disguised marketing campaign through a game, not “play to earn.”

4. Personal perspective

- For users, this is entertainment; lightly farming airdrops is okay, and the TRUMP token may benefit when the game launches because it requires token deposits into the game to enjoy benefits, but in the long term, it may just create liquidity for the Trump team to release tokens.

PREDICTION HAS MATURED MORE THAN BEFORE

Previously, the Prediction Market was considered a gambling market, but now it is officially licensed with Kalshi and Polymarket, along with the growth of the number of users and volume.

- Last month, over 13 billion USD was traded – three times higher than the peak volume of the US 2024 election.

- Previously, the prediction market almost always followed a pattern of sharply increasing volume as the presidential election approached, followed by a rapid decrease in liquidity when the event ended.

- Currently, volume no longer revolves around a single event; Polymarket, Kalshi, and OPINION have become the main sources of liquidity, maintaining consistent activity after the election, with a wide variety of voting activities ranging from sports to culture,...

- CNN has announced the inclusion of odds from Kalshi in news broadcasts, indicating a shift in information approach.

- Currently, the main volume is at @Polymarket, @Kalshi, and @opinionlabsxyz, followed by smaller projects like @trylimitless or @footballdotfun,...

- Thus, it is clear that the prediction market race is heating up among organizations, with various chains eager to secure their share; this represents a PMF for the market after Perp Dex.

*Note: This article aims to provide information on the metrics of official applications in the US and does not endorse any form of gambling!

BlackRock files for Ethereum staking ETF - How is it different from Grayscale's ETP Staking?

If you remember, Grayscale has had the $ETH ETP Staking product since early October 2025, and when that news came out, it was also right at the ETH chart peak (chart image)

- In fact, Grayscale's ETP ETH Staking product is quite unattractive to users, as there is a management fee from Grayscale of about 2.5%. Moreover, there are also staking/validator fees (hidden in the structure): about 0.2-0.4%

=> This means the cost for users of this ETP Staking is around 2.7-3% per year, while the Gross staking yield of Ethereum is around 3.0 – 4.0% per year (even below 3% as it currently is at 2.72%)

=> This means the staking profit is very low with ETHE at approximately 0.3 – 1.0% per year, and there were periods where it was almost = 0

*How is BlackRock's Ethereum staking ETF different?

- BlackRock has submitted Form S-1 for the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF to the SEC on 05/12/2025

- The review time for Form S-1 is about 30-45 days, after which the 19b-4 filing will be completed for listing in about a maximum of 240 days (8 months), with staking ETFs potentially facing stricter regulations, making it harder to list as quickly as current Altcoin ETFs (like $XRP , $SOL ,...)

=> So the fastest that the ETH Staking ETF could be listed is around the end of Q2/2026 and the latest by the end of 2026

- The expectation is that BlackRock's Staking ETF will be a more accessible product than Grayscale, with a management fee of only about 0.5%, making investor profits higher => much more attractive

- Therefore, this information is currently a positive news, but in the short term, it won't generate any immediate cash flow for ETH; we hope for a longer-term future

- What are your thoughts?

12 UPGRADES OF ETHEREUM FUSAKA - WHAT ARE THE CURRENT PRICING MODELS $ETH ?

FUSAKA is the latest major upgrade of ETH, signifying the development of the Ethereum network, but the ETH pricing models show considerable differentiation.

1. Paving the way for L2 scaling while maintaining L1, increasing throughput without compromising stability.

- EIP-7594 helps scale L2 without making nodes heavy.
- EIP-7892 allows for gradual increases in blob capacity after Fusaka.
- EIP-7918 prevents blobs from being too cheap.
- EIP-7935 increases the default block gas limit - blocks can handle more transactions/settlements.
- EIP-7825 limits gas for each transaction.
- EIP-7934 restricts block size by byte.
- EIP-7823, EIP-7883 prevent crypto-heavy transactions from clogging the CPU.
- EIP-7642 nodes sync faster and are lighter.
- EIP-7951 allows wallets to log in using Face ID/fingerprint.
- EIP-7939 computes more efficiently and cheaply, especially for ZK & cryptography.
- EIP-7917 predicts validators proposing blocks, supporting MEV, market infrastructure, and pre-confirmation.

2. The pricing models - is the current $ETH undervalued?

- Metcalfe’s Law - The network value is proportional to the number of active users/nodes, reflecting L2 growth - pricing $ETH at $9.5K-$9.8K.

- DCF Staking Yield - Discounted cash flow valuation from staking yield; accounting for scarcity from burn - price from $8.9K-$9.0K.

- Validator Economics Valuation based on validator economics and node costs, with ETH priced around $6.9K.

- Layer-2 Framework values L2 TVL as a "super-ecosystem"; Fusaka increases this value, with a price of ~ $4.6K.

- Revenue Yield is currently overvalued, annual revenue/staking yield suggests ETH is priced at $1.2K.

- P/E Ratio calculated as price/profit ratio shows ETH at only $899.

= > Combining all, ETH is currently valued at $4.9K - meaning it could rise by another 57.8% compared to the current price of $3.1K.

ZKsync officially terminates ZKsync Lite in 2026

Matter Labs $ZK announces that it will stop supporting ZKsync Lite in 2026. This is the first zk-rollup version launched since 2020, a historical experiment, not an architecture for the long term.

1. Why stop?

- Old architecture, not suitable:
- Account abstraction limitations
- Difficult to scale smart contracts

2. The current direction has completely shifted to:

- ZKsync Era
- zkStack (multi-chain zk ecosystem)

3. Points to note:

- The sunset will not affect Era or zkStack
- The roadmap for asset migration will be announced in 2025
- Users have more than 1 year to prepare

4. My perspective:

- This is the right decision. To move quickly with zkStack, it is necessary to cut off legacy. Keeping Lite at this time only slows down the ecosystem.

ETH is gradually recovering, but is it time for FOMO?

1. Price structure: holding the base, but not yet reclaiming the trend

- $ETH was rejected quite accurately at the Golden Pocket (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci) – this is a strong supply area, reflecting that selling pressure is still significant. The positive point is that the price is still holding above the Bull Market Support Band on the daily frame, meaning the medium to long-term bullish structure has not been broken.

2. MVRV Long/Short: short-term selling pressure still hangs in the air

- The MVRV Long/Short difference has returned to a neutral zone. This indicates:

- Short-term holders (STH) are starting to realize profits

- And this group tends to sell very quickly when they see signs of hesitation

3. Squeeze Momentum: energy is being compressed

- The squeeze indicator shows that volatility is tightening, and the histogram is gradually moving towards a positive direction. This often happens before a strong run.

- Important note: this indicator signals the timing, not the direction. When it breaks, the market will move quickly, but whether it goes up or down depends on whether the buyers can reclaim the key level.

4. ETH/BTC breaks the downtrend: a cyclical signal

- The point I value the most is that ETH/BTC has broken the downtrend.

5. Realistic scenarios to prepare for

- Short-term: ETH is likely to still drift around 3,000. If STH continues to take profits, the possibility of a drop to 2.75k – 2.8k could definitely happen.

- ETH is showing relative strength compared to BTC. But at this moment, there is no confirmation to take the risk.

- Long-term holders can still accumulate in this area.

The psychology of retail investors $BTC is fluctuating strongly, and each time it decreases into the Fear Zone, it has accurately predicted a bounce, according to Santiment.

I’m a big fan of you for a long time 🫡 @CZ

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #BTCVSGOLD

If you pay attention, you will see that Binance and CZ have supported Aster for quite some time, around April 2025.

After that, Aster received a lot of support from BNB, along with many incentive programs on it, and finally, a successful TGE with impressive growth.

Currently, with the perpdex niche, Lighter is experiencing high volume due to no fees and waiting for TGE, but Aster is already somewhere competing for the top with Hyperliquid; the market may shift to another big trend.

Yesterday, both Yzi Labs and CZ mentioned Prediction with the project @predictdotfun being built to ride the wave with Polymarket (expected TGE Q1/2026).

I am closely monitoring and have already signed up for the waitlist; you should also pay attention to this project!

Thank you @Binance ❤️

Congratulations to boss Yi He and Richard Teng

#BinanceBlockchainWeek #blockchain100

First day at #BinanceBlockchainWeek

Check in at the PancakeSwap booth

The Main Stage is too crowded to get in and listen to Saylor, Richard Teng, and Ella Zhang share.

Coinbase institutional provides insights on 'K-shaped economy' and cash flow positioning risks

- The US economy is following a 'K-shaped recovery' model: the group benefiting from increased productivity due to AI/tech sees profits rise, but the labor group (middle, lower) may face difficulties => this reduces the demand for venture capital.

- K-shaped is a polarizing model that shows asymmetry in the economy, where one group grows while others stagnate.

- In the context of instability - inflation, monetary policy, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decisions are also uncertain => the 'risk-on' sentiment is eradicated, significantly affecting crypto.

- The group benefiting from the AI boom is actually the group that is already wealthy, with lower risk tolerance, and they tend to buy AI, cloud, semiconductor stocks => because they have real cash flow.

- Given the current context, with retail feeling disheartened, institutions being risk-off, and weak liquidity, it will be very challenging for risk assets like crypto, but it is also an important point to observe, as the crypto market has often needed to develop amidst difficulties.

- The November report contains a few more points, I will update in the next post.

Present and ready for Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, starting tomorrow, folks!

Do you need to send anything to our friend CZ so I can ask him tomorrow? 🤣

#BinanceBlockchainWeek

Welcome to Dubai #BinanceBlockchainWeek

YEARn FINANCE UNDER ATTACK: 9 MILLION USD VANISHED IN JUST 1 TRANSACTION

According to data from PeckShield, @yearnfi Finance has just suffered a major attack with total damages of ~9 million USD.

1. Key Developments

- The attacker minted almost infinite yETH, a serious flaw in the mint/burn mechanism of the pool.

- After the virtual minting, the hacker withdrew all the liquidity in just 1 transaction.

~1,000 $ETH (~3 million USD) was transferred directly to Tornado Cash to hide the cash flow.

- The exploiter wallet 0xa80d…c822 is still holding ~6 million USD in remaining assets (ETH + other tokens).

2. My Perspective

- This is a type of “infinite mint” error that is extremely dangerous and often occurs when wrapped assets/vaults do not properly control supply.

- Yearn is an established project, but the technology of yETH appears to be loose => warning for the entire yield-wrapped ecosystem.

- The immediate transfer of funds to Tornado Cash shows that the hacker is quite professional, having prepared an exit route in advance.

=> The likelihood that Yearn will face significant trust pressure; the TVL of the system may decrease further in the coming days.

3. Personal Conclusion

- Another testament that as DeFi becomes more complex, the risks increase.

- Investors should prioritize vaults/yields that have recent audits, simple mint/burn mechanisms, and limit layered wrapped-wrappers.

- If I had a position in these DeFi projects, I would withdraw everything to my personal wallet.

- What are your thoughts?