小七币圈陪跑专家
公众号：xqbtc123；推特X：XQBTC777；
不讲盘面，只讲人性，稳住心态，持续修行！
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Having accompanied the cryptocurrency circle for so long, I am increasingly certain 🌈🌈
Every fluctuation
is to hone one's temperament for the next breakthrough
The true king is the one who remains calm amidst the volatility!
Every fluctuation
is to hone one's temperament for the next breakthrough
The true king is the one who remains calm amidst the volatility!
PINNED
The exit window for this round of Bitcoin bull market has appeared!\nBitcoin has recently continued to decline, falling below the $90,000 mark, and has further dropped to around $88,000 during the day. The downward trend has been further established at the weekly level, and the exit signal for this bull market has become increasingly obvious.\nCurrently, the daily MACD for Bitcoin shows a corrective rebound trend, but the momentum continues to weaken. Patience in waiting for the peak of this phase of rebound to occur is the best time to liquidate all positions, as it is also the last exit opportunity for this institution-led bull market.\nFor those who like to do short contracts, you may consider looking for layout opportunities around the $90,000 to $92,000 range, as this area is a key resistance level for the recent rebound. The target for short positions in this area can see the $75,000 to $80,000 range.\nOne year of bear, three years of bull; bulls move slowly, bears move quickly. This classic cyclical rule in the cryptocurrency market has never failed. In the upcoming bear market adjustment, the decline of altcoins will inevitably far exceed that of Bitcoin.\nTheoretically, the high volatility of altcoins is more suitable for short contract trading to gain high returns in a bear market, but it is essential to be cautious of the many uncontrollable risks associated with small-cap altcoins. Even when shorting, one must firmly stay away.\nFor example, small-cap altcoins are more likely to experience extreme spike events, with drastic fluctuations that can easily lead to forced liquidation of contracts. There are also risks of project teams running away or sudden zeroing of currencies; even if the short position judgment is correct, one may face the dilemma of profits being unable to be realized.\nTherefore, if one must layout medium to long-term (several months or even several quarters) short positions in altcoins, it is best to choose assets within the top 100 by market capitalization that have actual ecological support. These types of currencies are expected to have substantial increases in the 2023-2025 bull market, and their fundamentals are solid enough not to easily drop to zero.\nThis article presents a long-term trend view, with a focus on rebound inducement in the short term.\nTo prevent contradictions, this is hereby stated.
From 50,000 to 5 million: Advice from a veteran in the cryptocurrency circle, every word is a lesson learned.
I have a friend who has been struggling in the cryptocurrency circle for several years, experiencing several bull and bear market cycles. Initially, he entered the market with 50,000 yuan, and now his wealth has grown to 5 million yuan.
A few days ago, I chatted with him, and he didn't recommend any 'potential coins' to me; he just said a few sentences that left a deep impression on me:
In this market, 95% of people die from chasing highs and selling lows;
Real experts are greedy only when others are fearful.
He also shared four 'survival rules' that he summarized. These rules sound very simple, but they are lessons he learned with real money.
A few days ago, I chatted with him, and he didn't recommend any 'potential coins' to me; he just said a few sentences that left a deep impression on me:
In this market, 95% of people die from chasing highs and selling lows;
Real experts are greedy only when others are fearful.
He also shared four 'survival rules' that he summarized. These rules sound very simple, but they are lessons he learned with real money.
Crypto World Changes Dramatically: Ethereum Plummets Warning, How is Your 'Buy the Dip Dream'?
Recently, the atmosphere in the crypto world has been quite strange. On the surface, everyone is still chatting and laughing as if nothing has happened. But in reality, I feel that many people's inner thoughts have already begun to waver.
A harsh reality is: this may not be a simple pullback, but the beginning of a 'protracted battle.' Those still shouting 'buy the dip' may need to prepare for a long-term resistance.
Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve's 'hawk-dove' dilemma
Recently, Powell sent out ambiguous signals in his speech, sometimes saying to focus on inflation, and other times saying to consider economic growth. The market instantly changed, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3%, and ETH directly dropping below $3500.
A harsh reality is: this may not be a simple pullback, but the beginning of a 'protracted battle.' Those still shouting 'buy the dip' may need to prepare for a long-term resistance.
Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve's 'hawk-dove' dilemma
Recently, Powell sent out ambiguous signals in his speech, sometimes saying to focus on inflation, and other times saying to consider economic growth. The market instantly changed, with the Nasdaq plummeting 3%, and ETH directly dropping below $3500.
ETH daily plummeted 23 SOL, falling sharply, down 54% in the last three months, currently close to 8.01 USD, approaching some institutions' cost of replenishment, not buying the dip for now.
Institutional movements: ETH ETF has seen a net outflow for five consecutive days, with 800 million USD withdrawn; SOL ETF's turnover rate has soared, with clear signs of institutions cutting losses, and market buying power has dried up.
Intraday operations: Short ETH in the 3400-3500 range, targeting 3100-3000, with a stop loss above 3600; wait to build a position in SOL in batches at 6-7 USD, controlling the position size.
Key signals: Possible stop of decline in mid-February, with hopes for a rebound at the end of the month, need to monitor ETH 2800 support and ETF capital inflow. Altcoins present structural opportunities, prioritize low market cap quality targets, and wait for the overall market to stop declining before positioning. #何时抄底？ @小七币圈陪跑专家
Institutional movements: ETH ETF has seen a net outflow for five consecutive days, with 800 million USD withdrawn; SOL ETF's turnover rate has soared, with clear signs of institutions cutting losses, and market buying power has dried up.
Intraday operations: Short ETH in the 3400-3500 range, targeting 3100-3000, with a stop loss above 3600; wait to build a position in SOL in batches at 6-7 USD, controlling the position size.
Key signals: Possible stop of decline in mid-February, with hopes for a rebound at the end of the month, need to monitor ETH 2800 support and ETF capital inflow. Altcoins present structural opportunities, prioritize low market cap quality targets, and wait for the overall market to stop declining before positioning. #何时抄底？ @小七币圈陪跑专家
Plummeting 23%! ETH is heading towards 2800, SOL has dropped below 8 dollars, over 430,000 longs liquidated, are altcoins picking up the pieces against the trend?
ETH has plummeted, SOL has followed suit sharply, and a collective liquidation wave in the crypto market has arrived! In intraday trading, ETH has dropped a staggering 23%, breaking the 3500 support level without any resistance. The probability of falling below the 3000 mark in the next couple of days is nearly 90%! If this trend continues, after panic capital escapes, some safe-haven funds may flow into undervalued altcoins — after all, there are already some resistant coins turning green against the trend, and the logic of finding exceptional stocks in chaotic times has never failed. The core support levels for ETH are concentrated in the 3000-3200 range, with a large amount of long leverage piling up around 3100. Once it breaks below, it will inevitably trigger a chain liquidation, and heading towards 2800 is by no means an exaggeration.
Trump's signature, central bank's stance, Hong Kong's licensing - recently, global regulators have collectively acted, and the 'wild horse' of stablecoins in the crypto world is finally going to be put under stricter control!
Veterans in the crypto circle may think: I only use USDT as a springboard for trading, and regulation has nothing to do with me? That's a big mistake! This wave of operations directly rewrites the rules of the game, and after reading this, you'll know which pitfalls to avoid
The 'stability' of stablecoins is a scam: it seems to guarantee capital, but in fact, it hides dangers
On the surface, '1 coin anchors 1 fiat', do you think it's a 'safe haven' in the crypto market? In reality, many issuers are playing 'the game of empty hands and white wolves':
Reserve assets are opaque: some mix in junk bonds, while others simply use air assets to prop up the market, failing to meet the 1:1 redemption requirement;
Risks have long been precedent: the Terra crash evaporated 40 billion USD, UST de-pegged from 1 USD to 0.01 USD, how many people lost everything?
The 'stability' of stablecoins is a scam: it seems to guarantee capital, but in fact, it hides dangers
On the surface, '1 coin anchors 1 fiat', do you think it's a 'safe haven' in the crypto market? In reality, many issuers are playing 'the game of empty hands and white wolves':
Reserve assets are opaque: some mix in junk bonds, while others simply use air assets to prop up the market, failing to meet the 1:1 redemption requirement;
Risks have long been precedent: the Terra crash evaporated 40 billion USD, UST de-pegged from 1 USD to 0.01 USD, how many people lost everything?
Most people mistakenly believe that "without a surge in altcoins, Bitcoin will not enter a downward trend," but this perception lacks historical and real-world support.
Core fact: The primary driving force behind Bitcoin's decline is the tightening of global liquidity or specific shocks (such as the Mt.Gox collapse or increased regulation), unrelated to whether altcoins surge.
Historical validation:
2010-2011: No altcoin market, BTC dropped from $32 to $2 (a decline of 93%), coinciding with the Federal Reserve tightening liquidity;
2013-2015: Few altcoins, BTC fell from $1,100 to $150 (a decline of 85%), triggered by forced selling due to Mt.Gox's bankruptcy;
Beginning of 2026: BTC dropped from $129,000 to $75,000 (a decline of over 41%), with no collective rally in altcoins, instead, 87% of new coins broke below their issuance price.
Key conclusion: The altcoin season is the result of excess funds spilling over from Bitcoin's bull market, not a prerequisite for the onset of a bear market. Currently, BTC's dominance has been sideways for 730 days at a high level, institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, and liquidity continues to flow out of altcoins, further confirming the logic of "Bitcoin's independent dominant cycle."
Risk warning: When the bull market narrative is prevalent, one must be more wary of Bitcoin's independent downside risk; the laws of supply and demand and liquidity changes are the core signals of a cycle reversal. @小七币圈陪跑专家
Core fact: The primary driving force behind Bitcoin's decline is the tightening of global liquidity or specific shocks (such as the Mt.Gox collapse or increased regulation), unrelated to whether altcoins surge.
Historical validation:
2010-2011: No altcoin market, BTC dropped from $32 to $2 (a decline of 93%), coinciding with the Federal Reserve tightening liquidity;
2013-2015: Few altcoins, BTC fell from $1,100 to $150 (a decline of 85%), triggered by forced selling due to Mt.Gox's bankruptcy;
Beginning of 2026: BTC dropped from $129,000 to $75,000 (a decline of over 41%), with no collective rally in altcoins, instead, 87% of new coins broke below their issuance price.
Key conclusion: The altcoin season is the result of excess funds spilling over from Bitcoin's bull market, not a prerequisite for the onset of a bear market. Currently, BTC's dominance has been sideways for 730 days at a high level, institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin, and liquidity continues to flow out of altcoins, further confirming the logic of "Bitcoin's independent dominant cycle."
Risk warning: When the bull market narrative is prevalent, one must be more wary of Bitcoin's independent downside risk; the laws of supply and demand and liquidity changes are the core signals of a cycle reversal. @小七币圈陪跑专家
$ETH fluctuates under pressure, with a 70% probability of breaking the 2800 support in the short term. There is a risk of leveraged liquidation at the 2750 level below, and if it breaks, it may head straight for 2600. Institutional demand is cooling, with some taking profits. A rebound during the day between 2980-3000 could be shorted, targeting 2850-2800.
$SOL resists the downturn, with institutional ETF net inflows exceeding 800 million dollars. The 122 dollar level is close to the institutional cost zone, and a pullback to 110-115 dollars could allow for gradual accumulation, with strong willingness from long-term funds to support.
Bitcoin's downward channel may drag down ETH, but a reversal is expected in mid-February. Altcoins show structural opportunities (such as BANANA and FARM rising against the trend), but increasing divergence necessitates avoiding high-risk chasing.
Core signals: Can ETH stabilize above 2880 (50-day moving average)? Will SOL ETF net inflows continue? Increased trading volume + "bull engulfing" are signs of bottom confirmation, and it is advisable to wait for the trend to clarify. #以太坊L2如何发展？ #etc
$SOL resists the downturn, with institutional ETF net inflows exceeding 800 million dollars. The 122 dollar level is close to the institutional cost zone, and a pullback to 110-115 dollars could allow for gradual accumulation, with strong willingness from long-term funds to support.
Bitcoin's downward channel may drag down ETH, but a reversal is expected in mid-February. Altcoins show structural opportunities (such as BANANA and FARM rising against the trend), but increasing divergence necessitates avoiding high-risk chasing.
Core signals: Can ETH stabilize above 2880 (50-day moving average)? Will SOL ETF net inflows continue? Increased trading volume + "bull engulfing" are signs of bottom confirmation, and it is advisable to wait for the trend to clarify. #以太坊L2如何发展？ #etc
'Bull-Bear Split! ETH Dips to 2600? SOL 110-115 for Accumulation, Altcoins Become a Safe Haven for Capital'
ETH is under pressure with fluctuations, while SOL resists the decline, and the divergence between bulls and bears intensifies. Throughout the day, ETC oscillates around the 2900 mark, with the upper resistance at 3300 being difficult to breach. The daily chart still shows a 'lower high' characteristic, with a probability of about 70% for a short-term breakdown below the 2800 support level. Following this trend, some risk-averse capital may flow from mainstream coins to strong altcoins, especially given that Banana Gun (BANANA) surged by 35.91% in a single day, indicating a capital siphoning effect for such counter-trend assets. The core support for ETH is concentrated in the 2700-2800 range, with a significant amount of leveraged positions near 2750. Once effectively breached, it is very likely to trigger a chain liquidation, making a quick drop to the 2600 mark not mere talk.
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The iron law of the capital market has never changed: history tends to be astonishingly similar, even precisely replicated.
The iron law of the capital market has never changed: history tends to be astonishingly similar, even precisely replicated. Human greed and fear are repeatedly played out in the alternation of bull and bear markets, and most people will never learn to draw lessons from cycles—especially true in the crypto market.
The Bitcoin halving cycle is the 'time code' of the crypto world. From the birth of the genesis block in 2009, to the first halving in 2012, the second halving in 2016, the third halving in 2020, and now the halving cycle of 2024, the supply-demand reconstruction that occurs every four years has already engraved a clear trajectory of rises and falls. The current Bitcoin reward of 3.125 coins per block every 10 minutes has dropped, and the hard cap of 21 million coins has never wavered. As of now, nearly 20 million coins have been mined, and the remaining 1 million coins will be mined until the year 2140. This means that the scarcity of Bitcoin will only be reinforced over time, and the power of cycles will become increasingly significant.
The Bitcoin halving cycle is the 'time code' of the crypto world. From the birth of the genesis block in 2009, to the first halving in 2012, the second halving in 2016, the third halving in 2020, and now the halving cycle of 2024, the supply-demand reconstruction that occurs every four years has already engraved a clear trajectory of rises and falls. The current Bitcoin reward of 3.125 coins per block every 10 minutes has dropped, and the hard cap of 21 million coins has never wavered. As of now, nearly 20 million coins have been mined, and the remaining 1 million coins will be mined until the year 2140. This means that the scarcity of Bitcoin will only be reinforced over time, and the power of cycles will become increasingly significant.
The Confidence to Navigate a Bear Market: Every Action Taken is for Long-term Value
As a practitioner who has navigated the crypto space for many years, I have long grown accustomed to the ebb and flow of the market. The frenzy of chasing prices during bull markets and the panic selling at the lows of bear markets have shown me too many people who lose their way by fixating on prices. Yet I firmly believe that long-term value is always worth holding onto more than short-term price fluctuations—this is not only my confidence in navigating cycles but also the core consensus I share as a member of the Nova team.
The most frequently asked questions from the community are, "Why don't you do marketing to create hype?" "Others are spreading good news to pump prices, why are you so 'low-key'?" "Is the project still alive?" We have never used flowery language to justify ourselves, but rather responded with concrete actions: the founder engages in community comment sections, answering users' confusion one by one; product managers actively gather feedback and candidly share iteration plans in AMAs; the technical team works tirelessly throughout the year, dedicating all their energy to code optimization. The core topic of discussion within the team every day is simply this: "Have we solved the core pain points of our users? Can the product experience be upgraded further?"
The most frequently asked questions from the community are, "Why don't you do marketing to create hype?" "Others are spreading good news to pump prices, why are you so 'low-key'?" "Is the project still alive?" We have never used flowery language to justify ourselves, but rather responded with concrete actions: the founder engages in community comment sections, answering users' confusion one by one; product managers actively gather feedback and candidly share iteration plans in AMAs; the technical team works tirelessly throughout the year, dedicating all their energy to code optimization. The core topic of discussion within the team every day is simply this: "Have we solved the core pain points of our users? Can the product experience be upgraded further?"
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