岳小鱼
Web3 产品经理 ｜ 项目投研 ｜ 经验分享 ｜ 前阿里巴巴产品经理，从互联网大厂到Web3创业公司🚀 微信公众号【岳小鱼】主理人，持续输出优质内容累计100万字
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Binance internal horse racing, which of the three major prediction markets will win?
Binance internal horse racing, which of the three major prediction markets will win?
The prediction market is bound to be the biggest trend and opportunity in 2026.
It is important to know that there are two major events in 2026: one is the World Cup, and the other is the U.S. midterm elections.
These two significant events will directly spark a new wave of enthusiasm in the prediction market.
The three hottest areas in the prediction market are sports, cryptocurrency, and political events.
Currently, in the entire landscape of the prediction market, Polymarket can be said to be dominant and absolutely the leader.
Next is the compliant platform Kalshi, which has already captured a large market share in the United States.
The prediction market is bound to be the biggest trend and opportunity in 2026.
It is important to know that there are two major events in 2026: one is the World Cup, and the other is the U.S. midterm elections.
These two significant events will directly spark a new wave of enthusiasm in the prediction market.
The three hottest areas in the prediction market are sports, cryptocurrency, and political events.
Currently, in the entire landscape of the prediction market, Polymarket can be said to be dominant and absolutely the leader.
Next is the compliant platform Kalshi, which has already captured a large market share in the United States.
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Binance supports fiat withdrawals! Practical tutorial!
I have successfully run the path from Binance Exchange to withdraw to the Hong Kong card!
I withdrew 2000 USDT from Binance to ZhongAn Bank, expecting to receive 1973.44 USD, with a total measured loss of about 1.3%. However, when the withdrawal amount is larger, the loss can continue to decrease.
The losses mainly consist of two parts:
1️⃣ USDT exchanged for USD, Binance does not charge a fee, but the exchange rate difference is 0.08%.
2️⃣ USD is transferred to the Hong Kong card via SWIFT, with a fixed charge of 25 USD (when the withdrawal amount is relatively small, the loss mainly occurs here).
After the overall experience, there are currently several bottlenecks:
1️⃣ The entry is really hard to find.
I withdrew 2000 USDT from Binance to ZhongAn Bank, expecting to receive 1973.44 USD, with a total measured loss of about 1.3%. However, when the withdrawal amount is larger, the loss can continue to decrease.
The losses mainly consist of two parts:
1️⃣ USDT exchanged for USD, Binance does not charge a fee, but the exchange rate difference is 0.08%.
2️⃣ USD is transferred to the Hong Kong card via SWIFT, with a fixed charge of 25 USD (when the withdrawal amount is relatively small, the loss mainly occurs here).
After the overall experience, there are currently several bottlenecks:
1️⃣ The entry is really hard to find.
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Please leave yourself an escape route in Hong Kong!
Hong Kong is China's financial backdoor, educational backdoor, and identity backdoor.
Although there are many better options for immigration countries, Hong Kong is the easiest springboard for people from the mainland to access.
The future will definitely be increasingly strict, so while it’s still not tightened, you must take care of the following things, and in a few years, you will definitely thank yourself for leaving an escape route.
1️⃣ Buy a Hong Kong version of the Apple phone.
Many people do not know that the Apple phones in the mainland are stripped-down versions, lacking many features such as eSIM, satellite communication, AI, etc. More importantly, for privacy security, it’s best to buy a Hong Kong version of Apple.
2️⃣ Create a Hong Kong Apple ID.
With an Apple phone, do not use a mainland Apple account ID, but directly create a Hong Kong Apple ID; just select Hong Kong as the region when creating the Apple account. Many overseas apps can then be downloaded.
3️⃣ Get a Hong Kong mobile phone number.
Many overseas applications require an overseas mobile phone number to receive SMS verification codes, so a Hong Kong mobile number is very necessary. I use ClubSim, which supports eSIM, does not require a physical card, and can be obtained online, perfectly matching the Hong Kong version of Apple.
4️⃣ Open several Hong Kong bank cards.
The Hong Kong version phone and mobile number are for information isolation, while the Hong Kong bank card is for fund isolation. Funds must be globally allocated, and getting a Hong Kong card is the first step. The two essential cards are HSBC and ZhongAn Bank, of which I think ZhongAn Bank is the best to use (you can get cashback vouchers by entering the invitation code: UMBB89 when opening an account).
5️⃣ Open Hong Kong and US stock accounts.
Large internet brokers like Futu and Tiger no longer support mainland users for account opening, but there are still a few that can. Of course, the simplest way is to open a stock account directly in the Hong Kong bank app after getting a Hong Kong bank card; I still recommend ZhongAn Bank, and it can be set up in a few minutes.
(I have an internal channel for Fosun Securities where mainland users can open accounts without overseas identities and enjoy permanent commission-free trading, feel free to private message me.)
6️⃣ Obtain a Hong Kong identity (this is optional and has a higher cost).
If your education is good, you can go for the high talent plan; if you have high achievements, you can apply for the talent scheme; if you have already found a job in Hong Kong, you can go for the professional talent plan; you can also directly enter Hong Kong universities through studying to obtain a student visa.
Hong Kong is China's financial backdoor, educational backdoor, and identity backdoor.
Although there are many better options for immigration countries, Hong Kong is the easiest springboard for people from the mainland to access.
The future will definitely be increasingly strict, so while it’s still not tightened, you must take care of the following things, and in a few years, you will definitely thank yourself for leaving an escape route.
1️⃣ Buy a Hong Kong version of the Apple phone.
Many people do not know that the Apple phones in the mainland are stripped-down versions, lacking many features such as eSIM, satellite communication, AI, etc. More importantly, for privacy security, it’s best to buy a Hong Kong version of Apple.
2️⃣ Create a Hong Kong Apple ID.
With an Apple phone, do not use a mainland Apple account ID, but directly create a Hong Kong Apple ID; just select Hong Kong as the region when creating the Apple account. Many overseas apps can then be downloaded.
3️⃣ Get a Hong Kong mobile phone number.
Many overseas applications require an overseas mobile phone number to receive SMS verification codes, so a Hong Kong mobile number is very necessary. I use ClubSim, which supports eSIM, does not require a physical card, and can be obtained online, perfectly matching the Hong Kong version of Apple.
4️⃣ Open several Hong Kong bank cards.
The Hong Kong version phone and mobile number are for information isolation, while the Hong Kong bank card is for fund isolation. Funds must be globally allocated, and getting a Hong Kong card is the first step. The two essential cards are HSBC and ZhongAn Bank, of which I think ZhongAn Bank is the best to use (you can get cashback vouchers by entering the invitation code: UMBB89 when opening an account).
5️⃣ Open Hong Kong and US stock accounts.
Large internet brokers like Futu and Tiger no longer support mainland users for account opening, but there are still a few that can. Of course, the simplest way is to open a stock account directly in the Hong Kong bank app after getting a Hong Kong bank card; I still recommend ZhongAn Bank, and it can be set up in a few minutes.
(I have an internal channel for Fosun Securities where mainland users can open accounts without overseas identities and enjoy permanent commission-free trading, feel free to private message me.)
6️⃣ Obtain a Hong Kong identity (this is optional and has a higher cost).
If your education is good, you can go for the high talent plan; if you have high achievements, you can apply for the talent scheme; if you have already found a job in Hong Kong, you can go for the professional talent plan; you can also directly enter Hong Kong universities through studying to obtain a student visa.
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The Second Battle of the Web3 Live Streaming Sector Begins: If PumpFun is Taobao Live, then Sidekick is Douyin Live!
The largest token launch platform in the cryptocurrency space, PumpFun, has restarted its live streaming function. What impact will this have on the Web3 live streaming sector?
Conclusion first: PumpFun launched its live streaming function for the first time, creating the Web3 live streaming sector; now that it has restarted the live streaming function, it has once again opened the ceiling of this sector.
1. PumpFun actually gave its competitors a long window of opportunity.
In November 2024, PumpFun combined token issuance and live streaming for the first time, and the popularity was extremely high, especially as the worlds of gambling, drugs, and cryptocurrencies are so closely intertwined, with all sorts of strange characters flooding in.
However, due to the lack of compliance and risk control capabilities for content, it was forced to take down the live streaming function.
Conclusion first: PumpFun launched its live streaming function for the first time, creating the Web3 live streaming sector; now that it has restarted the live streaming function, it has once again opened the ceiling of this sector.
1. PumpFun actually gave its competitors a long window of opportunity.
In November 2024, PumpFun combined token issuance and live streaming for the first time, and the popularity was extremely high, especially as the worlds of gambling, drugs, and cryptocurrencies are so closely intertwined, with all sorts of strange characters flooding in.
However, due to the lack of compliance and risk control capabilities for content, it was forced to take down the live streaming function.
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The battle of the five major exchanges’ platform coins: Who is the dark horse this time?
In recent times, major exchanges have been active. First, OKX strongly pushed up $OKB, and then Bitget used $BGB as the Morph public chain token.
Why have exchanges been making moves on exchange platform coins recently?
On the one hand, due to the relaxation of US regulatory authorities, everyone should seize the current window of opportunity to empower platform coins and pave the way for the future;
On the other hand, due to the trend of currency-stock integration, the exchange's platform currency can be said to be one of the few truly valuable assets in the currency circle. It is supported by real business, and the value of the platform currency is being repriced by the market.
Why have exchanges been making moves on exchange platform coins recently?
On the one hand, due to the relaxation of US regulatory authorities, everyone should seize the current window of opportunity to empower platform coins and pave the way for the future;
On the other hand, due to the trend of currency-stock integration, the exchange's platform currency can be said to be one of the few truly valuable assets in the currency circle. It is supported by real business, and the value of the platform currency is being repriced by the market.
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How difficult is it for ordinary people to buy U.S. Treasuries?
It is important to know that U.S. Treasuries are arguably the highest quality risk-free fixed income asset globally, but for non-U.S. citizens, purchasing U.S. Treasuries is extremely difficult.
To purchase high-quality assets like U.S. Treasuries, we face obstacles such as foreign exchange control, account opening, tax reporting, and cross-border transfers.
At this time, on-chain U.S. Treasuries have arrived.
Binance has recently launched the RWUSD product, which tokenizes real-world assets (RWAs) like U.S. Treasuries and packages them, providing ordinary people with a simple and convenient way to access U.S. Treasury yields.
It can be said that Binance's RWUSD is comparable to Alipay's Yu'e Bao.
To purchase high-quality assets like U.S. Treasuries, we face obstacles such as foreign exchange control, account opening, tax reporting, and cross-border transfers.
At this time, on-chain U.S. Treasuries have arrived.
Binance has recently launched the RWUSD product, which tokenizes real-world assets (RWAs) like U.S. Treasuries and packages them, providing ordinary people with a simple and convenient way to access U.S. Treasury yields.
It can be said that Binance's RWUSD is comparable to Alipay's Yu'e Bao.
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From the collaboration between Robinhood and Arbitrum, we see the Arbitrum ecosystem
1. True transformation always occurs in a sluggish market.
When everyone is still in the meme coin market PVP, and when everyone thinks there is no narrative in this round, traditional financial markets have actually been surging beneath the surface, rushing into blockchain.
Moreover, in places that many haven't noticed, many leading old blockchain projects are quietly making efforts, seizing the opportunity to merge new narratives.
Currently, the most noteworthy narrative is naturally the fusion of coins and stocks.
There is an event that may be overlooked by everyone: traditional stock trading platform giant Robinhood ultimately chose Arbitrum technology to deploy chains, achieving stock on-chain.
When everyone is still in the meme coin market PVP, and when everyone thinks there is no narrative in this round, traditional financial markets have actually been surging beneath the surface, rushing into blockchain.
Moreover, in places that many haven't noticed, many leading old blockchain projects are quietly making efforts, seizing the opportunity to merge new narratives.
Currently, the most noteworthy narrative is naturally the fusion of coins and stocks.
There is an event that may be overlooked by everyone: traditional stock trading platform giant Robinhood ultimately chose Arbitrum technology to deploy chains, achieving stock on-chain.
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Hangzhou Stablecoin Payment Conference Notes: Traditional Payment Institutions Are Rushing In
1. I didn't expect that a small private gathering would ultimately turn into an industry conference.
Originally, this was a small private discussion on stablecoin payments with about twenty people, but more and more people joined, ultimately turning it into a large meeting of over one hundred participants, which can be said to be the stablecoin payment conference in Hangzhou.
This shows the current enthusiasm for stablecoin payments; it's not just a hidden current, but all parties are rushing in.
I have personally engaged in stablecoin payments and have felt the enthusiasm for stablecoin payments; I can also deeply understand the value of stablecoin payments and the changes they will bring.
Originally, this was a small private discussion on stablecoin payments with about twenty people, but more and more people joined, ultimately turning it into a large meeting of over one hundred participants, which can be said to be the stablecoin payment conference in Hangzhou.
This shows the current enthusiasm for stablecoin payments; it's not just a hidden current, but all parties are rushing in.
I have personally engaged in stablecoin payments and have felt the enthusiasm for stablecoin payments; I can also deeply understand the value of stablecoin payments and the changes they will bring.
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Why can Lagrange be listed on Binance? Let's talk about the things behind it.
Is everyone keeping up?
The Web3+AI project Lagrange we talked about in May is now going to be listed on Binance and will conduct a Binance HODLer airdrop.
1. Why can this project be listed on Binance?
Overall, this project has two major advantages: ZK (zero-knowledge proof) + focus on the Asian community.
The former has a technological advantage, while the latter has a community advantage.
With technological highlights, community users, and hitting the popular narrative of AI, the probability of a good project is naturally very high.
2. Issuing coins and going public must choose a good timing.
The same action, at different points in time, can yield completely different results.
The Web3+AI project Lagrange we talked about in May is now going to be listed on Binance and will conduct a Binance HODLer airdrop.
1. Why can this project be listed on Binance?
Overall, this project has two major advantages: ZK (zero-knowledge proof) + focus on the Asian community.
The former has a technological advantage, while the latter has a community advantage.
With technological highlights, community users, and hitting the popular narrative of AI, the probability of a good project is naturally very high.
2. Issuing coins and going public must choose a good timing.
The same action, at different points in time, can yield completely different results.
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A Comprehensive Understanding of the Development History of Compliant Stablecoin Leader Circle
Friends around me have already started to learn about stablecoins through Circle.
After Circle went public, its stock price skyrocketed from $31 at issuance to over $200, attracting a lot of attention to stablecoins.
The market's recognition of Circle reflects Wall Street's emphasis on stablecoins, and the main reason is that stablecoin-related assets are very scarce.
If you want to understand stablecoins, you need to first understand how Circle got to where it is now: How did Circle make it this far?
Overall, Circle’s development history can be described as a series of ups and downs, going through three major stages:
After Circle went public, its stock price skyrocketed from $31 at issuance to over $200, attracting a lot of attention to stablecoins.
The market's recognition of Circle reflects Wall Street's emphasis on stablecoins, and the main reason is that stablecoin-related assets are very scarce.
If you want to understand stablecoins, you need to first understand how Circle got to where it is now: How did Circle make it this far?
Overall, Circle’s development history can be described as a series of ups and downs, going through three major stages:
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The Stablecoin War Has Begun
With the implementation of the US stablecoin bill (GENIUS), traditional finance has accelerated its entry, and six major forces have already formed.
The largest force is Tether, which issued USDT.
Tether has aligned with Secretary of Commerce Raimondo.
This camp also includes Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald (former CEO was Secretary of Commerce), CEP (son of the Secretary of Commerce + SoftBank investment), and BitDeer (Tether holds 25.5%).
USDT has a market value of $150 billion, a market share of 66.5%, and has already occupied an absolute dominant position in the market.
The second major force is the Coinbase and Circle consortium.
The largest force is Tether, which issued USDT.
Tether has aligned with Secretary of Commerce Raimondo.
This camp also includes Bitfinex, Cantor Fitzgerald (former CEO was Secretary of Commerce), CEP (son of the Secretary of Commerce + SoftBank investment), and BitDeer (Tether holds 25.5%).
USDT has a market value of $150 billion, a market share of 66.5%, and has already occupied an absolute dominant position in the market.
The second major force is the Coinbase and Circle consortium.
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It's been eight years since Binance was established; how many more years can we last in this industry?
As the number one exchange in the universe, Binance has celebrated its eighth anniversary, and founder CZ has once again topped the list of wealthy Chinese individuals.
A company that can become the industry leader within a year of its establishment and maintain that position for eight years, with its founder also becoming the regional billionaire, is truly a miracle.
Therefore, the Binance merchandise gift box I just received is particularly meaningful.
I have only been in the cryptocurrency industry for three years, but in that time as a frontline practitioner, I have seen the industry's rapid changes more profoundly.
Various new narratives emerge endlessly; one could say there is a major narrative every year and a minor narrative every month.
A company that can become the industry leader within a year of its establishment and maintain that position for eight years, with its founder also becoming the regional billionaire, is truly a miracle.
Therefore, the Binance merchandise gift box I just received is particularly meaningful.
I have only been in the cryptocurrency industry for three years, but in that time as a frontline practitioner, I have seen the industry's rapid changes more profoundly.
Various new narratives emerge endlessly; one could say there is a major narrative every year and a minor narrative every month.
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Opportunities in Crisis: After the Cetus Theft, Who Will Become the First DEX in the Sui Ecosystem?
1. The first question: Is there still an opportunity for the Sui ecosystem?
The largest DEX in the Sui ecosystem, Cetus, experienced a theft incident, but this security event is not an issue with the Sui public chain itself, but rather a vulnerability in Cetus's smart contract (calculation precision issue).
On the other hand, the Sui Foundation responded quickly, collaborating with validators to freeze the funds on the hacker's address through a 'transaction ignore' mechanism and plans to further recover cross-chain transferred assets, which prevented any substantial loss of funds.
However, recently the TVL of the Sui ecosystem has rebounded, indicating that some funds from Cetus have flowed to other protocols.
The largest DEX in the Sui ecosystem, Cetus, experienced a theft incident, but this security event is not an issue with the Sui public chain itself, but rather a vulnerability in Cetus's smart contract (calculation precision issue).
On the other hand, the Sui Foundation responded quickly, collaborating with validators to freeze the funds on the hacker's address through a 'transaction ignore' mechanism and plans to further recover cross-chain transferred assets, which prevented any substantial loss of funds.
However, recently the TVL of the Sui ecosystem has rebounded, indicating that some funds from Cetus have flowed to other protocols.
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The Paradigm of Web3 Product Growth: Points + Rankings + Transaction Mining + Social Mining + Content Mining = The Ultimate Product Growth Flywheel!
1. The ultimate form of the growth flywheel!
The points mechanism of the all-chain trading platform UniversalX has added content mining, similar to Kaito's model; by posting related content on Twitter, you can earn points.
Thus, not only has the last engine component for UniversalX's product growth been completed, but it has also become the ultimate form of product growth!
The points mechanism of UniversalX can be said to set an example for all Web3 projects, becoming a paradigm.
This mechanism includes three types of mining: transaction mining, social mining, and content mining.
(1) Transaction mining is about increasing transaction volume, encouraging users to trade more.
The points mechanism of the all-chain trading platform UniversalX has added content mining, similar to Kaito's model; by posting related content on Twitter, you can earn points.
Thus, not only has the last engine component for UniversalX's product growth been completed, but it has also become the ultimate form of product growth!
The points mechanism of UniversalX can be said to set an example for all Web3 projects, becoming a paradigm.
This mechanism includes three types of mining: transaction mining, social mining, and content mining.
(1) Transaction mining is about increasing transaction volume, encouraging users to trade more.
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The Beginning and End of the Solv Big Holder Rights Protection Incident: A Fierce Confrontation Between Idealists and Opportunists
The Solv big holder rights protection incident was like a farce, and it has finally come to an end.
Through the hustle and bustle of various voices, we can see many things: some shine brightly, some bare their fangs, while others show their ugly side.
What are the facts, what are viewpoints, what is objective, and what is subjective? We can now look back and review.
1. First, let's look at the complete timeline.
November 28, 2024: The leading Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol announces TGE (Token Generation Event); @SolvProtocol
December 30, 2024: Binance announces the listing of Solv tokens; @binancezh
Through the hustle and bustle of various voices, we can see many things: some shine brightly, some bare their fangs, while others show their ugly side.
What are the facts, what are viewpoints, what is objective, and what is subjective? We can now look back and review.
1. First, let's look at the complete timeline.
November 28, 2024: The leading Bitcoin staking protocol Solv Protocol announces TGE (Token Generation Event); @SolvProtocol
December 30, 2024: Binance announces the listing of Solv tokens; @binancezh
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