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Pelin Ay
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比特币的预期情景持续。我预计它将首先达到102,000美元，然后继续下跌。矿工成本在51,000美元和57,000美元之间。在2021年的牛市中，矿工成本为29,000美元，价格跌至14美元。也就是说，它跌破了15,000美元。如果再次出现类似的下跌，36,000美元到42,000美元的范围将是熊市的底部。
#bitcoin
$BTC
免责声明：含第三方意见，不构成财务建议，并且可能包含赞助内容。
详见《条款和条件》。
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Pelin Ay
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Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis: Bear Season Has Begun First, looking at the Bitcoin chart, the price is clearly below the short, medium, and long-term moving averages. The price is sloping downwards from the SMA(7–14–30) and is positioned below the SMA(50–100), clearly indicating a downward trend. Reactions are being sold off at the falling averages, meaning the averages have now become dynamic resistance. Resistance attempts are coming with low volume. Buyers are not gaining dominance. Volume in sell candles is deeper than in buy candles. Buying volume is not accompanying recoveries. In short, BTC is currently in the reaction phase of a bear market. The structure is still downward, and upward movements do not inspire confidence. Ethereum is also below the averages but is doing better than BTC. The SMA(7–14) is attempting an upward curve, showing a desire for a short-term recovery. However, the SMA(50–100) is still above, meaning the main trend has not changed. The rebound from the bottom is stronger and more stable than BTC's. Candlestick patterns are cleaner, wicks are shorter, and there's no panic selling. The increase in volume after the bottom is healthier than in BTC. Buying is still limited but not completely gone. Ethereum is holding stronger than Bitcoin, but this strength is not yet at the level of a trend reversal. Considering both charts together, I can say that ETH is holding stronger than BTC. However, the market hasn't yet entered "risk-on" mode. In both charts, long-term averages are sloping downwards, rebounds are below resistance, and volume is insufficient for an uptrend. The market is not ready for a strong rise. BTC cannot lead, the market cannot go up. ETH is resilient but cannot start a trend alone. The Bitcoin rally has ended for now. We will first see the bottom of the bear season ($50K), then we will continue the rise. $BTC $ETH
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According to ETH Funding Rates, Futures Demand Isn't Meeting the Need to Start a Rally Recent positive funding rates are lower than in the previous period. There isn't heavy long pressure; that is, the market isn't aggressively engaging in leveraged buying. Negative areas are very limited; it's also clear that short positions aren't dominant. Therefore, I can't say there's excessive optimism in the market, but the long side is still dominant, albeit weakly. When funding remains positive but low, we can say that leveraged long positions aren't strong and only small investors are trading. This indicates a lack of power to push the price up or down. The price enters a consolidation period at this time. The last part of the chart shows ETH fluctuating around $3.1K; this seems consistent with the funding structure. Based on this chart, it's not difficult to predict that the ETH price will continue to stabilize in the $3.3K–$3.7K range. Because long transactions are weak but dominant. There is no selling pressure. The price hasn't found a peak yet. Therefore, I think the maximum rise could be around $3700. The fact that funding rates remain at these levels indicates insufficient demand for futures contracts to support a major rally. $ETH #Ethereum
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For Ethereum, I think the peak will be between $3,350 and $3,700. Then, the decline will continue. I predict a bearish bottom around $900. #Ethereum $ETH
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Last week, $DYX, which had been short-correlated with #Bitcoin, returned to its normal course and began falling as #bitcoin rose. It's clear this decline will fall to 98.16. However, I believe it will then reverse upwards. This is because $BTC will likely find a peak and then fall. I expect this peak to reach $102K this week, but it appears to be relatively low volume. I'm keeping a close eye on the short.
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Ethereum Binance Reserves Rising The chart clearly shows that the Ethereum Exchange Reserve has been in a continuous downtrend, particularly since July 2025. This decline reached levels of 3.8 million by the end of November, the lowest level in recent months. The fact that the reserve never fell below $1.4K indicates that the ETH price has formed a strong base around $1.4K. The price never dropped below $1.4K, and aggressive buying followed each test. This movement demonstrates that the 1.4K level is a strong support level in terms of supply and demand. While this base level has been maintained, the continuous decline in reserves during the same period should have positively impacted the price, but the price has actually decreased proportionally to the reserve. I interpret this as a rallying cry for whales at $1.4K. Therefore, any hold above 1.4K may be paving the way for the start of a temporary upward trend. The final section of the chart shows a small but significant upward movement in the reserves after the sharp decline. This means that ETH withdrawn from Binance is being held in cold wallets, not sold. Small increases in reserves, however, transfer ETH held in wallets to the exchange for purchase. This is typically a move that sends ETH to the exchange for sale during a rally following a bottom confirmation. In other words, there are investors willing to sell during the initial upward movement. This indicates that ETH, which fell from $4,950 to $2,600, has found a temporary bottom and is expected to rise to $3,325. The downtrend will then continue, with the price aiming to reach the base support of $1,400. SMA30 and supply pressure are converging at $1.6K. This area will be a test of strength for the uptrend. Even if sharp spikes occur at $1.4K, I believe buyers will emerge within this range. $ETH
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