GEMINI

In the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw heavy liquidations as 128,056 traders were wiped out, pushing total losses to $381.06 million. The biggest single liquidation took place on Hyperliquid, where a HYPE/USD position worth $8.64 million was closed.

#Bitcoin has dropped to the True Market Mean, the average cost basis of actively traded (non-dormant) coins, a level that historically separates mild bearish phases from deep bear markets. Although price has stabilized above this level, the overall structure closely resembles early 2022.

The spot price falling below the 0.75 supply quantile to around $96.1K means roughly 25% of Bitcoin’s supply is now underwater, creating a fragile balance between capitulation and potential bottom formation. Until Bitcoin reclaims $106.2K, the 0.85 quantile, as solid support, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to macroeconomic shocks.

Selling activity from long term #Bitcoin holders is picking up, as more supply continues to flow into the market. This ongoing distribution points to profit taking by seasoned investors and could act as a headwind for price growth unless demand steps in strongly.

As an on chain analyst, I see these headlines every day, but so called “accumulation” often isn’t new demand. In many cases it’s just wallet reshuffling, where large entities move coins between addresses for internal reasons without changing real ownership.

When comparing >100K #BTC entities with the 100-1K BTC cohort, the strong negative correlation, roughly 300K BTC leaving large entities and about 270K BTC entering sharks, clearly points to redistribution, not genuine accumulation.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

从#Bitcoin’s 长期持有者那里获利的情况正在增加，随着价格上涨，过去30天显示出过去五年中最大的分配峰值之一，这一模式历史上出现在宏观周期顶部而不是底部，通常反映出经验丰富的投资者在强势中卖出，这并不保证立即反转，但通常限制了上行并增加了波动性或回调的风险，除非有强劲的新需求进入市场。

在过去24小时内，加密市场的清算激增，影响了124,770名交易员，导致总损失达到4.0489亿美元。最大的单笔清算发生在Hyperliquid，关闭了一笔价值1108万美元的#HYPEUSD 头寸。

The current behavior of #Bitcoin suggests that the traditional four year cycle may already be behind us. When viewed through the lens of past cycles, the usual sequence does not fully align with what we are seeing now. Increased institutional influence, evolving liquidity conditions and global economic factors are playing a much larger role. As a result, the classic cycle theory alone may no longer be enough to explain Bitcoin’s price movements.

Despite the recent drawdown from $125k, #Bitcoin treasury holdings held by public companies have continued to grow. This challenges the idea of widespread forced selling, particularly as several Bitcoin linked equities remain below mNAV. The behavior points more toward long term conviction than short term pressure.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

During the sharp drop a few weeks ago, demand for downside protection increased as price moved into the low $80K range, reflecting higher uncertainty. Since then, the market has stabilized and expectations for extreme moves have eased. However, implied volatility remains above the very low levels seen over the past six months, a more active volatility environment than before.

#Bitcoin is trading around $86.4K. Short term holders are in loss with the cost basis at $101.8K, which keeps pressure on the upside. Active Investors Mean is at $87.9K, acting as the immediate balance level. The True Market Mean at $81.3K remains strong support and keeps the overall structure healthy. Realized Price at $56.3K shows long term holders are still comfortable and not forced to sell.

The latest #Bitcoin selloff triggered the most significant 7 day change in short term holder cost basis since the FTX low in 2022 around $16K. This suggests a sharp shakeout among recent entrants, with panic driven selling and liquidations playing a major role.

In past cycles, events like this have often marked a reset in market structure, clearing excess risk and allowing stronger hands to step in. Volatility may persist but these moments tend to define important inflection zones.

#Bitcoin 在过去三个月中几乎超越了每一个主要的加密行业。这种持续的表现差距反映了一个资本强烈偏向于#BTC. 的市场。投资者对稳定性和流动性的深度表现出明显的偏好，而风险更高的行业则难以吸引持续的资金流入。除非市场情绪发生显著变化，否则预计比特币将继续主导更广泛的市场趋势。

Still Extreme Fear 👀

An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.

Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.

An ELR reading of 0.18 highlights a clear sense of caution in the #XRP market on Binance. This suggests that traders are not aggressively committing to positions yet, as the market continues to reposition itself. Such a low reading often reflects uncertainty and reduced risk appetite, indicating that participants are waiting for stronger confirmation before making decisive moves.

Overall, this phase points to XRP building a more stable and balanced foundation, which could set the stage for a clearer directional move once confidence returns and volume strengthens.

#Bitcoin’s NVT Z-score 已降至 -0.87，这是自 2022 年 5 月以来的最低水平，表明比特币可能被低估，因为市场总值下降，而链上和现货交易量相对稳定。这并不意味着比特币是一个即时购买的选择，还需要通过其他指标进行确认，但历史上，这种贬值阶段提供了良好的中期机会。仍然需要谨慎，因为如果 #BTC 进入真正的熊市，许多链上信号可能变得不可靠。

市场波动在过去一天触发了大规模清算，受到影响的交易者达到102,710人，损失达到2.4744亿美元。
Hyperliquid记录了最大的单笔#ETHUSD 清算，金额为485万美元。

Market pressure is clearly building as #Bitcoin continues to trade well below its recent peak. With price sitting nearly 30 percent under the all time high, short term holders are increasingly feeling the strain. On chain indicators reflect this stress. The Short Term Holder SOPR has moved below 1, signaling that many recent participants are selling at a loss. This typically points to fear driven exits and weakening short term sentiment.

Loss realization is also visible in the Profit and Loss Block data, which shows a rise in realized losses across the network. Most of this selling activity is coming from short term holders, while long term holders remain comparatively stable. Such conditions often mark a local stress phase in the market. While the broader trend remains uncertain, these periods have historically preceded consolidation or a potential base forming once forced selling subsides.