Major economies are expanding money supply again. China remains the biggest source of liquidity growth. 🌏 The US is moving markets through fiscal stimulus and shifts in the Fed balance sheet. 📈
Liquidity is turning loose. History says that usually favors risk assets. 👀🔥
Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai says the BOJ could raise interest rates to around 1.0% by June–July. Longer term, he sees the neutral rate near 1.75%.
That’s a clear shift away from Japan’s ultra-loose policy era. The implications for global liquidity and risk assets could be massive.
Bitcoin vs Gold BREAKING: Gold just hit a new ATH, and history shows that Bitcoin always follows it with a lag. This chart shows when liquidity conditions improve, money often moves in a sequence: Gold moves first. Bitcoin moves later. You can see it repeating on the chart. 2016-2017: Gold starts trending up first. Bitcoin is still slow at the start. Then later, Bitcoin accelerates hard. 2020–2021: When QE started, gold pushed to new highs first. Bitcoin was still below its old ATH and stayed stuck for a while. At one point, BTC was still far below ATH while gold was already strong. Then the sequence flipped: Gold momentum weakened and topped out. And that is when Bitcoin started the big move. That is the main point. Bitcoin did not lead that cycle at the start. It followed after gold slowed down. 2025 Setup - The liquidity is improving again: - The Fed has already done 3 rate cuts - The Treasury is doing $40B per month in T-bill buying - Global money supply is at all-time highs And the price action is matching the same pattern: Gold is already trending strong. Bitcoin is still lagging. Gold is highly overbought right now, so we can expect some weakling in coming weeks orand we can finally see money rotation from Gold to BTC. Bitcoin market cap - $1.8 trillion Gold market cap - $31 trillion (Gold has added nearly $17 trillion in just the last 2 years, which is 4x of Japan’s GDP) So if in the next 5 years Bitcoin reaches just 30% of gold's market cap, the price per BTC would be $450,000 per BTC.
China has reportedly discovered a massive undersea gold reserve, a development that could reshape the global gold market. Estimates suggest the deposit could reach 3,900 tons, roughly 26% of China’s current gold reserves. Gold’s value has always been rooted in scarcity. Increase supply, and the price equation changes. If this reserve is gradually brought to market, it could put sustained pressure on gold prices. Given that China is already the world’s largest gold producer, this find has the potential to shift the global balance of power in gold.
The second-order effect is where markets really start paying attention. When demand for gold softens, capital does not disappear. It rotates. Historically, that rotation often moves toward alternative stores of value, including crypto. Market transitions like this are driven by capital flows, not headlines.
With global liquidity in flux and uncertainty rising, political pressure is building. President Trump faces growing expectations to support market confidence through pro-growth policy, trade adjustments, or direct financial backing. Large supply shocks change behavior. When behavior shifts, markets move quickly. This discovery may take time to fully play out, but if it does, both gold and crypto could enter a new phase sooner than most expect.
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