Set the alarm for three in the morning to watch FOMC, originally thought it would be a 'heart-pounding night', but the interest rate remained unchanged? But don’t rush to scroll away, this seemingly 'stable' decision hides the key code for the crypto market in the coming year—especially the operation of the dot plot, which directly cut the expected rate cuts in 2026 from 3 to 2, this is not a trivial matter!
First, let’s give a lesson to the brother who just woke up: The FOMC announced last night to maintain the interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, just as the market had anticipated, which can be seen as a 'reassuring pill' for the short-term market. But loyal fans know that compared to the interest rate itself, the dot plot is the Federal Reserve's 'truth or dare' segment—this graph's expected number of rate cuts directly reflects the big shots' true judgment on future economic and monetary policy.
The key point is here, my exclusive judgment: this time the interest rate cut expectation has been revised down from 3 times to 2 times, which essentially means the Federal Reserve is 'cooling down' the market, telling everyone not to expect aggressive easing policies next year. This is not bad news for the crypto market in the short term; instead, it can avoid the pullback after the previous 'over-speculation on easing expectations'; however, in the long run, a slowdown in the easing pace means that the crypto market's bull market driven by liquidity may have to wait a little longer.
Some brothers might ask: So what should we do next? Here are two practical viewpoints; those who understand them can avoid detours:
First, don't chase short-term hot spots. Before the Federal Reserve's policy has a clear turn, the market is likely to remain in a volatile situation. It's more reliable to buy quality targets at low prices than to chase the rise;
Second, closely monitor the interpretation of the inflation data from the next FOMC. If the inflation drops faster than expected, it cannot be ruled out that the expectation of interest rate cuts will be raised again, and that will be an opportunity window driven by liquidity.
To be honest, the crypto market has indeed been a bit 'tiring' lately, but it is precisely at such times that we must remain rational. I keep an eye on the latest policy dynamics and market data every day, and I will share my practical thoughts here with you as soon as there are any new developments.
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