Is the market this Friday morning making you feel anxious? Just a few days ago, the major cryptocurrencies were hesitantly rebounding, but this morning they splashed cold water on the market! Are there brothers who can't help but want to buy the dip in hopes of a rebound? Take my advice: entering the market now is purely jumping into a fire pit! As a veteran who has been watching the market for 8 years, today's morning analysis is full of heartfelt insights; those who understand can avoid today's pitfalls!
Let's talk about Bitcoin. From a daily chart perspective, this rebound momentum is as weak as a hungry kitten; it has formed upper shadow lines for several consecutive days, and this signal couldn't be more obvious—there is a serious lack of buying pressure in the market, and there aren't many funds willing to enter the market to take the bait, making liquidity absurdly poor. In simple terms, the bear market still rules, so don't be fooled by occasional small rebounds.
Zooming in to the four-hour cycle, a more interesting picture emerges: the price just touched the upper Bollinger Band and was heavily pressed down by bears, directly diving below the lower band, the previous support level was easily broken with no resistance whatsoever. Looking at the various indicators, wow, they all collectively turned downward, as if they had agreed upon it. This clearly tells us that the downward space has not yet been exhausted, and there is a high probability that further bottoms will continue to be explored.
As for the operational thinking, my personal view is very clear: at this stage, absolutely do not try to catch the bottom. The core strategy is to 'look for opportunities to short on rebounds'; do not go against the trend, otherwise, there will be no place to cry. Here’s a reference range that I personally monitor, for reference only, not constituting operational advice: if Bitcoin rebounds to the range of 85800-86300, it is a good entry opportunity, with a target initially looking at around 83500; for Ethereum, the range of 2840-2860 can be focused on, with a target initially looking at around 2760.
Finally, I want to say a heartfelt word: the recent market has been highly volatile with great uncertainty, everyone must control their positions well, do not go all in with heavy positions, and leave some room for error. The market is not short of opportunities; what is lacking is the patience to resist temptation. If you think my analysis makes sense, don’t forget to follow me, as I will continue to monitor the market and share any new changes in direction at the first moment. Were you surprised by this wave of plunge this morning?
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