猴哥 Houge
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猴哥 Houge
AI｜美股｜Crypto｜挖掘高赔率机会，不做喊单｜寻找下一个10倍资产
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Brother Hou sorts out the AI industry chain for everyone. There are only four words: chips, optics, storage, and packaging.
Chips, meaning semiconductors, represent companies such as #NVIDIA and #AMD.
This segment has the deepest moat. However, after this round of rally, many leading companies have already been priced in by the market.
Optics, meaning optical communications, including the ones I like most: #LITE #COHR #ALAB #CRDO.
In A-shares, the corresponding names are #InnoPeak (中际旭创) #XinQisheng (新易盛) #Tianfu Communication (天孚通信)—in other words, what people often call “Yizhongtian” (易中天).
This round has risen quite a lot, but I think we’re still in the early stage. Recently things have only been a bit dull. The real breakout, I believe, may happen around late 2026 to 2027.
Storage, meaning memory, is also the strongest main theme lately.
Overseas, there are the three major storage giants: #SK hynix #Micron #Samsung.
In A-shares, the counterparts include #Rambus? (澜起科技) and #GigaDevice (兆易创新), etc.
Recently the gains have been pretty fierce indeed. For friends who haven’t entered the trade, I wouldn’t recommend chasing after a surge.
Packaging and stacking, meaning advanced packaging, is one of the biggest incremental markets of the future.
I think its importance is no less than storage—it's just still in the early stage.
Overseas, there is #TSMC #ASE #AMKR. Among them, ASE is the global leader in OSAT packaging and testing—this is also an important reason why I bought ASE, $ASX. That’s essentially an early positioning.
For A-shares, #JCET (长电科技) is the leading domestic packaging and testing firm, and it’s also an important beneficiary of the storage industry chain. As storage chips ramp up in volume, packaging and testing orders will naturally grow along with it.
Summary:
Chips: the deepest moat.
Optical communications: the greatest upside.
Storage: the thickest profits.
Advanced packaging: the most bottlenecked—and also the most worth long-term attention!
That’s it. Brother Hou loves you the way he loves himself. Good night 🌙
Chips, meaning semiconductors, represent companies such as #NVIDIA and #AMD.
This segment has the deepest moat. However, after this round of rally, many leading companies have already been priced in by the market.
Optics, meaning optical communications, including the ones I like most: #LITE #COHR #ALAB #CRDO.
In A-shares, the corresponding names are #InnoPeak (中际旭创) #XinQisheng (新易盛) #Tianfu Communication (天孚通信)—in other words, what people often call “Yizhongtian” (易中天).
This round has risen quite a lot, but I think we’re still in the early stage. Recently things have only been a bit dull. The real breakout, I believe, may happen around late 2026 to 2027.
Storage, meaning memory, is also the strongest main theme lately.
Overseas, there are the three major storage giants: #SK hynix #Micron #Samsung.
In A-shares, the counterparts include #Rambus? (澜起科技) and #GigaDevice (兆易创新), etc.
Recently the gains have been pretty fierce indeed. For friends who haven’t entered the trade, I wouldn’t recommend chasing after a surge.
Packaging and stacking, meaning advanced packaging, is one of the biggest incremental markets of the future.
I think its importance is no less than storage—it's just still in the early stage.
Overseas, there is #TSMC #ASE #AMKR. Among them, ASE is the global leader in OSAT packaging and testing—this is also an important reason why I bought ASE, $ASX. That’s essentially an early positioning.
For A-shares, #JCET (长电科技) is the leading domestic packaging and testing firm, and it’s also an important beneficiary of the storage industry chain. As storage chips ramp up in volume, packaging and testing orders will naturally grow along with it.
Summary:
Chips: the deepest moat.
Optical communications: the greatest upside.
Storage: the thickest profits.
Advanced packaging: the most bottlenecked—and also the most worth long-term attention!
That’s it. Brother Hou loves you the way he loves himself. Good night 🌙
Finally seeing some movement in #FOTO, which indicates that the optical communication sector is starting to gain some traction.
Let me break down a few ETFs in the optical communication space for you; regular folks shouldn't gamble on individual stocks, buying funds is a smarter play.
If you have a US stock account, the simplest move is to go ahead and buy $FOTO. If you don’t have a US account, the A-shares market is also a solid option, especially since Yi Zhongtian skyrocketed before.
In the realm of actively managed funds, I think two are quite representative:
1. #Xinao Performance-Driven Mixed Fund, with about 57% allocation in optical communication!
It has a pretty balanced coverage and is a pure optical communication fund.
2. #Caitong Growth Preferred Mixed Fund, which has around 53% in optical communication, also quite significant. If we include the related supply chain, the overall optical communication concentration can reach nearly 63%!
As for the ETFs, currently, the one with the highest concentration in optical communication is #Communication ETF Guotai (515880); there’s no disputing that, right?
Its optical communication concentration is around 46%-50%, which is already very high for a passive ETF.
The biggest advantage is that it doesn’t rely on a fund manager’s stock picks, so you don’t have to worry about style shifts. If you believe in the optical communication industry long-term, you can keep tracking this direction!
Monkey Brother already built a position in #Communication ETF Guotai (515880) yesterday.
If you like dollar-cost averaging, go for the actively managed funds. If you prefer a hands-off approach and want to track industry logic over the long haul, I lean more towards the ETFs.
How you choose depends on your needs; this is just for reference!
Let me break down a few ETFs in the optical communication space for you; regular folks shouldn't gamble on individual stocks, buying funds is a smarter play.
If you have a US stock account, the simplest move is to go ahead and buy $FOTO. If you don’t have a US account, the A-shares market is also a solid option, especially since Yi Zhongtian skyrocketed before.
In the realm of actively managed funds, I think two are quite representative:
1. #Xinao Performance-Driven Mixed Fund, with about 57% allocation in optical communication!
It has a pretty balanced coverage and is a pure optical communication fund.
2. #Caitong Growth Preferred Mixed Fund, which has around 53% in optical communication, also quite significant. If we include the related supply chain, the overall optical communication concentration can reach nearly 63%!
As for the ETFs, currently, the one with the highest concentration in optical communication is #Communication ETF Guotai (515880); there’s no disputing that, right?
Its optical communication concentration is around 46%-50%, which is already very high for a passive ETF.
The biggest advantage is that it doesn’t rely on a fund manager’s stock picks, so you don’t have to worry about style shifts. If you believe in the optical communication industry long-term, you can keep tracking this direction!
Monkey Brother already built a position in #Communication ETF Guotai (515880) yesterday.
If you like dollar-cost averaging, go for the actively managed funds. If you prefer a hands-off approach and want to track industry logic over the long haul, I lean more towards the ETFs.
How you choose depends on your needs; this is just for reference!
Verified
This afternoon, the Monkey King had some free time and went through the A-shares ETFs again, looking for one with the highest storage content. I found that #Chip ETF Dongcai (159599) might be the closest thing to a 'storage ETF' currently in A-shares.
It's not just talk about storage; it really includes the core companies of the storage chain.
#Zhaoyi Innovation, the leader in NOR Flash.
#Lanke Technology, benefiting from memory interface chips and HBM.
#Jiangbolong and #Baiwei Storage, storage modules.
#Demingli, making SSDs, UFS, and eMMC.
#Beijing Junzheng, which has a DRAM storage business.
#Changdian Technology, benefiting from packaging and testing.
#Yake Technology, related to semiconductor materials and advanced packaging in HBM.
If we strictly calculate based on pure storage companies, the storage content is about 25%. If we also include the packaging material beneficiaries like Changdian Technology and Yake Technology, the storage industry chain's proportion is close to 30%!
With such a high storage content, what more could you want?
After flipping through all the A-share ETFs, the Chip ETF Dongcai seems to have the highest storage content. Although it’s not a pure storage ETF, this is probably the best option you can find in the absence of pure storage products in A-shares.
When investing in storage ETFs, keep an eye on #DRAM in the U.S. market, #Namdo KOSPI in the Korean market, and #Zhonghan Semiconductor and #Chip ETF Dongcai 159599 in A-shares.
I've analyzed all the ETFs related to storage, and this should be the optimal one. I'm curious if you’ve found something better? Feel free to let me know, as I’m planning to switch positions tomorrow!
It's not just talk about storage; it really includes the core companies of the storage chain.
#Zhaoyi Innovation, the leader in NOR Flash.
#Lanke Technology, benefiting from memory interface chips and HBM.
#Jiangbolong and #Baiwei Storage, storage modules.
#Demingli, making SSDs, UFS, and eMMC.
#Beijing Junzheng, which has a DRAM storage business.
#Changdian Technology, benefiting from packaging and testing.
#Yake Technology, related to semiconductor materials and advanced packaging in HBM.
If we strictly calculate based on pure storage companies, the storage content is about 25%. If we also include the packaging material beneficiaries like Changdian Technology and Yake Technology, the storage industry chain's proportion is close to 30%!
With such a high storage content, what more could you want?
After flipping through all the A-share ETFs, the Chip ETF Dongcai seems to have the highest storage content. Although it’s not a pure storage ETF, this is probably the best option you can find in the absence of pure storage products in A-shares.
When investing in storage ETFs, keep an eye on #DRAM in the U.S. market, #Namdo KOSPI in the Korean market, and #Zhonghan Semiconductor and #Chip ETF Dongcai 159599 in A-shares.
I've analyzed all the ETFs related to storage, and this should be the optimal one. I'm curious if you’ve found something better? Feel free to let me know, as I’m planning to switch positions tomorrow!
Check out this chart, the biggest price movers are optical fiber and hexafluoride, with the leading players #ChangfeiOpticalFiber and #HaohuaTechnology looking solid and worth keeping an eye on.
However, there are too many targets, which can dilute focus,
Currently, I'm holding 3 A-shares that I'm looking to swap out for ETFs to play dead.
#HengtongOpticalElectric (600487), a second-tier player in the fiber optic cable game, has solid logic in optical communication and a cable business with good elasticity.
#ShengyiTechnology (600183), a top domestic copper-clad laminate producer, is a pretty certain beneficiary.
#SanHuanGroup (300408), one of the MLCC leaders, many folks like to compare it with Fenghua Hi-Tech (000636), and I think both are solid—one leans towards profit and technology, while the other focuses on capacity and scale.
However, there are too many targets, which can dilute focus,
Currently, I'm holding 3 A-shares that I'm looking to swap out for ETFs to play dead.
#HengtongOpticalElectric (600487), a second-tier player in the fiber optic cable game, has solid logic in optical communication and a cable business with good elasticity.
#ShengyiTechnology (600183), a top domestic copper-clad laminate producer, is a pretty certain beneficiary.
#SanHuanGroup (300408), one of the MLCC leaders, many folks like to compare it with Fenghua Hi-Tech (000636), and I think both are solid—one leans towards profit and technology, while the other focuses on capacity and scale.
Verified
By the way, Micron (MU) is dropping their Q3 earnings report next Wednesday.
According to Wall Street's current projections, this quarter's revenue is expected to hit $34.4 billion, with a net profit of $23 billion. Honestly, those numbers are pretty outrageous—it's basically money printing.
I personally think it’s about right, and there’s even a chance of exceeding expectations. After all, based on feedback from the supply chain, HBM and high-end DRAM are still in short supply.
If we follow this logic, SK Hynix (000660.KS) is likely to have profits in Q2 that could be significantly higher than Micron's; I wouldn't be surprised if they hit double Micron's figures.
What's even more interesting is that both Hynix and Micron have similar market caps, around $1.2 trillion.
In the same industry, both riding the AI storage wave, if the profit gap continues to widen, theoretically Micron has potential, but Hynix's potential is even greater.
According to Wall Street's current projections, this quarter's revenue is expected to hit $34.4 billion, with a net profit of $23 billion. Honestly, those numbers are pretty outrageous—it's basically money printing.
I personally think it’s about right, and there’s even a chance of exceeding expectations. After all, based on feedback from the supply chain, HBM and high-end DRAM are still in short supply.
If we follow this logic, SK Hynix (000660.KS) is likely to have profits in Q2 that could be significantly higher than Micron's; I wouldn't be surprised if they hit double Micron's figures.
What's even more interesting is that both Hynix and Micron have similar market caps, around $1.2 trillion.
In the same industry, both riding the AI storage wave, if the profit gap continues to widen, theoretically Micron has potential, but Hynix's potential is even greater.
猴哥 Houge
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Hynix's Q2 forecast is out, and I'm left speechless.
A quarterly revenue of $54 billion, profits of $40 billion, and a profit margin of 74%?
You heard that right, a net profit of $40 billion in just one quarter!
What does that even mean? The profits for a single quarter could buy out all of Baidu!
A quarterly revenue of $54 billion, profits of $40 billion, and a profit margin of 74%?
You heard that right, a net profit of $40 billion in just one quarter!
What does that even mean? The profits for a single quarter could buy out all of Baidu!
Partly True
Hynix's Q2 forecast is out, and I'm left speechless.
A quarterly revenue of $54 billion, profits of $40 billion, and a profit margin of 74%?
You heard that right, a net profit of $40 billion in just one quarter!
What does that even mean? The profits for a single quarter could buy out all of Baidu!
A quarterly revenue of $54 billion, profits of $40 billion, and a profit margin of 74%?
You heard that right, a net profit of $40 billion in just one quarter!
What does that even mean? The profits for a single quarter could buy out all of Baidu!
I cleared my position on Xiaomi today.
With it dropping day after day, I just don't have the patience to ride this out anymore. To be honest, I think Lei Jun has been a bit too busy playing around lately—cars, press conferences, marketing, personal branding—he's got it all covered. It might bounce back eventually, but this pace is just way too slow.
People online are even starting to call him "Lei Ren Xun" now, learning from Jensen Huang about noodles and personal branding. Jensen Huang is backed by NVIDIA's $5 trillion market cap, while us Xiaomi shareholders are watching our stock price drop, which is a bit of a tough pill to swallow.
And the buybacks are just the same.
With all that cash on hand, every buyback is just HKD 100 million here and there, like watering the plants. If you really think the company is undervalued, why not go big with HKD 10 billion or 20 billion? This drip-feed buyback strategy does very little to boost the stock price.
Of course, I'm not denying that Xiaomi has potential in the future.
But for me, time is also a cost. Since my funds are tied up and not moving, I might as well invest in US stocks. Earning within my understanding is more important than holding onto faith.
With it dropping day after day, I just don't have the patience to ride this out anymore. To be honest, I think Lei Jun has been a bit too busy playing around lately—cars, press conferences, marketing, personal branding—he's got it all covered. It might bounce back eventually, but this pace is just way too slow.
People online are even starting to call him "Lei Ren Xun" now, learning from Jensen Huang about noodles and personal branding. Jensen Huang is backed by NVIDIA's $5 trillion market cap, while us Xiaomi shareholders are watching our stock price drop, which is a bit of a tough pill to swallow.
And the buybacks are just the same.
With all that cash on hand, every buyback is just HKD 100 million here and there, like watering the plants. If you really think the company is undervalued, why not go big with HKD 10 billion or 20 billion? This drip-feed buyback strategy does very little to boost the stock price.
Of course, I'm not denying that Xiaomi has potential in the future.
But for me, time is also a cost. Since my funds are tied up and not moving, I might as well invest in US stocks. Earning within my understanding is more important than holding onto faith.
Verified
Last night before hitting the sack, I scooped up 5 shares of SpaceX $SPCX at $170.
Honestly, I just wanted to set up a watch position, never thought I’d wake up to such a jump.
SpaceX's valuation skyrocketed from $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, ranking sixth globally—talk about a big player dancing!
I used to have this habit of buying one share of whatever stock caught my eye to set up a watch position.
Only by actually holding it can you get a feel for the price movements and really connect.
A lot of the time, buying that one share isn’t about making a profit; it’s more about marking the stock, noting the price and my assessment at that moment.
When it comes to individual stocks, I’m not into going all in; I prefer to build my position gradually—buying small on dips and loading up big on major drops, and not buying when it’s flat.
Honestly, I just wanted to set up a watch position, never thought I’d wake up to such a jump.
SpaceX's valuation skyrocketed from $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion, ranking sixth globally—talk about a big player dancing!
I used to have this habit of buying one share of whatever stock caught my eye to set up a watch position.
Only by actually holding it can you get a feel for the price movements and really connect.
A lot of the time, buying that one share isn’t about making a profit; it’s more about marking the stock, noting the price and my assessment at that moment.
When it comes to individual stocks, I’m not into going all in; I prefer to build my position gradually—buying small on dips and loading up big on major drops, and not buying when it’s flat.
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