停止缩表

$BTC Since the approval of the BTC ETF in January 2024, it has shifted from a four-year halving cycle to following the macro cycle of the US stock market. The trend of US dollar liquidity has the following impact on BTC as shown in the figure. Whenever the SOFR rate of US dollar liquidity experiences significant spikes - notably above the bank reserves ceiling rate IORB - marked in red, there is a short-term drop in BTC (Figure 1, orange circle). Since January 2024, the correlation between BTC and US10y is shown in Figure 2. Clearly, in this round, the two main upward phases saw US10Y and BTC rising in sync. #停止缩表 #美元流动性

Recently, the Federal Reserve announced: starting from December 1, it will stop its balance sheet reduction (QT) operations. In other words, the practice of allowing government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to mature without reinvestment, thereby withdrawing liquidity from the financial system, will temporarily come to an end.

This policy shift may seem like a technical adjustment, but it could carry significant signals for the market, especially for cryptocurrencies and risk assets. First, the cessation of balance sheet reduction means that the Federal Reserve will no longer actively withdraw liquidity from the system; under the 'ample reserves' regime, this change indicates that the market may welcome a more accommodative funding environment. Several institutions have also pointed out that this conveys the message of 'liquidity constraint easing' to the market. Second, from the perspective of interest rates and asset valuations: with the halt of balance sheet reduction and interest rates still in a relatively high range, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may gain some valuation support. Meanwhile, the dollar and its related assets may face certain pressure.

However, caution should also be maintained. Stopping balance sheet reduction does not equate to initiating a new round of large-scale 'quantitative easing' (QE). The Federal Reserve's statement emphasizes that this move is more about preventing cracks in short-term market liquidity rather than actively expanding the balance sheet. Additionally, inflation remains above target, and there is still uncertainty in the banking system and money markets, so the risk of a policy inflection point still exists.

From the perspective of traders, this could be a macro background worth paying attention to: if the funding environment begins to loosen slightly, the crypto market may welcome a favorable 'tailwind' opportunity. But this is not a signal to 'immediately increase positions'; rather, it is a reminder: you can start to shift towards scenarios of 'assuming liquidity improves and risk appetite rises,' while continuing to monitor key data such as short-term interest rates, the dollar index, reserve balances, and regulatory policy changes.

In summary, the Federal Reserve's halt of balance sheet reduction is a potential positive signal for the market, but it should still be approached with caution. As participants in the crypto market, it is advisable to view this as a background of 'improvement in conditions but needing data support,' rather than being blindly optimistic. #比特币波动性 #停止缩表 #美联储重启降息步伐
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