灰度

Seeing that Grayscale has transferred BTC to CB to smash the market, and was scolded by retail investors, I can't help but want to say: 1. Grayscale has no right to sell BTC. As a custody institution, Grayscale holds 600,000 BTC corresponds to gbtc and is an asset belonging to the user. 2. The reason why Grayscale sold btc is that gbtc was sold. Grayscale users sell gbtc --> Grayscale simultaneously sells btc -- and cash out the USD sold to the user. Summary: So the reason why Grayscale has been selling BTC is that gbtc was sold off. So, why was gbtc sold off after etf passed? Reasons: 1. Grayscale GBTC charges 1.5%, while newly opened ETF rates are generally 0.3%-0.4%. For users, the cost of Grayscale is 3-4 times higher for holding BTC. Therefore, many users will sell gbtc and replace it with other btc etfs (such as BlackRock's IBIT), and there is a delay (T+1) in this process. Users sell gbtc - Grayscale is forced to sell btc to users to cash out - Users get USD to buy BlackRock's ETF - BlackRock uses USD to buy BTC. The problems here are: 1. There is a time delay, that is, Grayscale's sale of BTC is inconsistent with BlackRock's purchase of BTC, and BlackRock may also be buying BTC OTC, or it may be buying CB’s own inventory directly, so some of the funds may not flow directly into the secondary market. 2. There are also some gbtc users who take profits (gbtc at the end of 2022, btc was 15700, gbtc price was 8600, which is equivalent to 40% off btc spot, and such similar discounts are guaranteed to exist for a long time), then this A batch of users who sold gbtc may have left the market to take profits. As for why Grayscale boss didn’t adjust the GBTC rate from 1.5% to 0.4%? The boss of Grayscale said that 1.5% is a necessary cost to maintain the normal operation of the fund. What he means is that 1.5% is necessary. (This is what he said himself. It is unknown whether BlackRock’s 0.4% can cover the cost of the fund.) Overall, after the ETF is passed, large amounts of money enter the market. Grayscale still has 540,000 BTC in hand. Tomorrow every day It continues to be sold at a rate of 10,000 pieces, and large amounts of money continue to be taken in by ETFs. Fluctuations are inevitable, and Bitcoin may continue to change hands in grayscale for at least a month in the short term. In fact, grayscale is at the position of 41000. Digging out the mine of gbtc is a good thing for the long bull trend of btc. Let gbtc get off the profit margin, let gbtc be replaced by other ETFs, and fully change hands at 41000. This is Prepare for the next cow.#比特币BTC #ETF #灰度

January 23 is destined to be an extraordinary day. First, in the early morning, Grayscale ETF drove the market to fall, falling below the important support of 40,000 points, and reached the 395 bull-bear line in the short term; in the evening, affected by the negative impact of Okx, emotions superimposed, and the market fell below. 395, pushing down towards the second level support level of 385, the copycats generally plummeted, and the overall decline far exceeded the market; at the same time, the US stock market is about to open at night, and the ETF market is expected to drive new selling pressure. In short, misfortune never comes singly, and the mood is out of control! Here, we remind you to be calm when there is a big rise, and to calm down your emotions when there is a big fall. Otherwise, it is easy to make more mistakes in the operation. Do a review analysis first. 1. Why did it fall? Bad news 1. The major exchange okx’s 50% cut of the needle insertion incident was affected by the lawsuit of the online currency ice. In my opinion, this is not a major event and is not a long-term negative. It is just a news demand for technical short selling. 2. The continuous selling pressure on the Grayscale ETF disk is said to be the selling pressure that actually repays FTX's debt. 11 EFTs are coming in and out, and the total disk funds are inflowing. 3. Mentougou suddenly jumped out and said that he would sell 200,000 Bitcoins to repay debts. One wave after another, it seems to be taking advantage of the situation. If there is really selling pressure, they will jump out and say it, which is obviously a bearish call. 2. These are the bad news for predicting the market outlook. There is no high-level news. One is that there are too many goods sold, and the other is a quarrel and lawsuit. News is often used to match technical trends and normal callbacks. From the support point of view, we mentioned three before, and they are all well-founded. 395 is the short-term bull-bear line, 385 is the pressure level of the previous wave and is now the second support level, and the third support level is 368 at the weekly level. It is also nearby the chip gathering zone of the previous consolidation period. Can 385 last and for how long? This depends on the thickness of the negative sentiment that continues to accumulate. If there are more calm people, they will hold on for a while. At the same time, it depends on whether the institutional level continues to release news and take the opportunity to continue to kill the bulls, causing despair. The feeling of despair is that the price has fallen so badly that no one talks about buying the bottom anymore. Generally speaking, copycats have experienced large declines and have a high proportion of panic. Most of them have already broken their positions, but they have a high chance of falling early and their downward momentum will be sharply reduced. 3. How do leeks save themselves? 1. I have repeatedly emphasized that spot is king and long-term is gold. I rarely see a contract go to the end. This is a problem of human nature, unless you have no human nature.Even if you like short-term trading, with 90% spot trading and 10% contract trading, you still have a trump card if you lose, and you won’t lose your big chips. 2. Regarding sector selection, we mentioned earlier that we should not buy a single bet when dividing baskets, and proposed a 4321 position allocation plan (the allocation can also be optimized based on own funds and risk preferences). You can read my compositions in the past few days. The first echelon is Bit and Ether, the second echelon is the mainstream public chain with market value that crosses the bull and bear market, the third echelon is high-narrative technological innovation track coins such as the L2 layer, etc., and the fourth echelon is other popular concepts, local dog zero zero Scattered, short-term and medium-term currencies that can rise rapidly. The advantages of this configuration can be seen today. 3. Regarding how to build a position, we proposed the 235 step-by-step method of building a position, and we gave a "buying the bottom + picking up the pin" plan for the pin market. Buy big when there is a big drop, buy small when there is a small drop. A callback is an opportunity to build a position, but in order to prevent If you are copying on the mountainside, in order to prevent shortfalls, you must be prepared with both hands to control the position. In summary, according to the 235 step-by-step position (for each coin), copy the bottom to consolidate supported coins and connect the big pins of high-quality coins. Sell ​​when you're crazy, buy when you're in panic! Scientifically control and build positions, continue to increase chips, clear away the fog, and find the truth about winning! Pay attention to new strategies and don’t get lost in investing! #BTC #okx #etf #灰度 $BTC

Why does Grayscale set GBTC’s management fee to 1.5%? The main reason is that Grayscale is short of money, very short of money, and very short of money in the short term. Setting it to 1.5% can maximize Grayscale’s short-term benefits. How is this 1.5% management fee charged? Many people don't even know this when they analyze, so they just analyze it blindly. I guess he only has experience buying funds in China and has no experience buying and selling U.S. stocks. The management fee is an annual fee, which is converted into a daily fee and charged on a daily basis. (When GBTC was a trust, the annual fee was 2%, charged monthly. This was changed when applying for the ETF). GBTC, which used to be a trust, was not redeemable. Grayscale charged a monthly management fee. What was actually charged was physical BTC. Every month, a portion of BTC was withdrawn from GBTC, which was then owned by Grayscale. This is a sure-fire deal. So why is Grayscale committed to converting GBTC from a non-redeemable trust into a redeemable ETF? Are you willing to spend a lot of legal fees to litigate with the SEC? Is it to benefit the currency circle? There are two reasons for the answer to this question. The main reason is that Grayscale itself holds a large amount of GBTC, and GBTC is heavily discounted in the market. Grayscale itself cannot sell the share he holds. There are two reasons why it cannot be sold. One is that GBTC has no liquidity, and the second is that it cannot be sold in the open market according to the Securities Act of 1933 and cannot sell enough shares. Another reason is that Grayscale and its subsidiaries are facing a large number of lawsuits from institutions such as FTX and Gemini due to the non-redeemable nature of GBTC and the scandalous operations during the premium period before March 21. If they cannot be converted into ETFs, they will lose money. Therefore, due to these two reasons, Grayscale had to sue the SEC and convert the trust into an ETF in order to avoid its own bankruptcy and forced GBTC to dissolve and pay a large sum of money. This was not for the sake of the crypto market. The summary is: 1. Grayscale itself is facing bankruptcy and is short of money, so it needs to make money from the shares of GBTC it holds. 2. Other institutions holding GBTC use legal proceedings to force Grayscale to do this. By the way, I would like to mention where did Grayscale’s GBTC come from? Some of them were bought by Grayscale themselves with BTC during the initial stage of GBTC. Anyway, the management fee was collected for itself and not for outsiders; a large part of it was taken by other institutions. When GBTC was used as collateral, it was loaned to its subsidiaries, such as Sanjian 3AC.Knowing why Grayscale has non-redeemable trusts and redeemable ETFs with a 1.5% management fee instead of a 2% management fee, you can understand why Grayscale set a 1.5% management fee. Grayscale still wants to collect as much management fees as possible, but is forced to have no choice. Far water cannot quench the near thirst, so it can only choose to maximize short-term management fee income. Remember? Management fees are charged on a daily basis. Then you may be thinking, aren’t these people who keep GBTC fools? Well, there are three types of people. Even if you are not a fool, you will tolerate GBTC’s high management fees. 1) Persons based on tax reasons. Chinese people do not need to pay IRS tax when they speculate in U.S. stocks, but Americans do. According to U.S. tax law, the tax rate for short-term trading and the tax rate for holding for more than a certain period of time are different. GBTC discount arbitrage was mostly carried out in 2023, which means some people need to eat more for a while to avoid taxes. 2) Assets that have been frozen in court cases, well, such as the more than 60 million GBTC of Gemini and Genesis. 3) Large institutions have requirements for management scale and liquidity. If you choose ETF, you cannot choose one below a certain scale, such as one below 7.5 billion (for example). And if you do simple GBTC discount arbitrage without considering taxes, anyone who doesn’t sell on the first day is a fool. As for GBTC’s past performance, does it have anything to do with Grayscale? Besides, the mechanisms of these spot ETFs are similar, and there is basically no difference in performance. To say that the price is 1.5% based on past performance is to deceive fools. #gbtc #灰度 #BTC #内容挖矿