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According to Andrei Dragosha, head of the European division research department at Bitwise, the stock quotes of companies working with artificial intelligence do not match the fundamental indicators of this business.
"The value of some stocks may be justified, but if judged by pure quantitative assessment, it is too high," said the analyst.

Analysts announced that companies with bitcoin reserves have entered the 'Darwinian phase.' The turning point occurred when the bitcoin price fell from the October peak of $126,000 to a low of around $82,000. Investors' appetite for risk sharply decreased, and liquidity in the market diminished.
The baseline scenario for such companies is a prolonged period of stagnation, during which the stocks carry a greater risk of price decline than the asset itself.

The technical metric of 'liveliness' for the first cryptocurrency continues to rise, reflecting buyer activity and signaling a potential resumption of the rally. This was pointed out by an analyst under the pseudonym TXMC.

The index represents a cumulative sum (running total) calculated based on all activity in the blockchain. The metric increases when coins are used in transactions and decreases when they are held, taking into account the age of the assets.

If you believe the latest data, the picture is now paradoxical: the price $BTC is at around $90K, and the motivation of old holders to secure profits has noticeably weakened. Previously, such levels were perceived as a 'gift of fate', but now a significant portion of long-term wallets is in no rush to unload. The reason is simple: their average cost has significantly increased compared to previous cycles, and the margin no longer looks so fantastic. Some coins were purchased around current levels or even higher, so sales here yield not a 'fat plus', but a rather modest result, and sometimes even zero. The logic is changing: if the risk has already been experienced, then there is no sense in giving up an asset for a small profit, in a deficit of which you believe for years to come.

What $BTC shows the weakest pressure from major players in recent months is an unpleasant but quite logical stage of the cycle. Institutions operate under different rules: they have risk committees, regulatory restrictions, accountability to investors, and strict deadlines for results. As soon as volatility rises and the flow of money into ETFs and other 'showcase' products decreases, it is easier for them to 'ride out the storm' in cash or bonds than to explain to clients the drop in risky assets. Therefore, we see a familiar picture: companies and funds are practically not buying, and many are stepping back altogether, leaving the market without the usual support in the form of large demand.

According to the expert, the comparison is incorrect due to the stability $BTC and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.
"I would not compare Bitcoin to tulips, no matter how significant the asset sell-off becomes. The tulip market grew and crashed in about three years, while Bitcoin has come back from six or seven harvests to reach historical highs, and has been stable for 17 years. Some simply hate the first cryptocurrency and want to annoy those who like it," said Balchunas.

On-chain metrics for wallets with a balance from 10 to 10,000 $BTC shows an interesting turnaround: after two months during which large holders collectively sold over a hundred thousand bitcoins, since the beginning of December they have again switched to aggressive buying mode, adding almost fifty thousand coins. For Bitcoin, this is a classic signal of a phase shift: large capital is exiting the profit-taking mode and returning to accumulation mode, and they are doing this not at historical highs, but during a correction. Simply put, those who really move the market in the long term once again find current levels interesting for position building.

It cost $BTC to abruptly leave the highs, as the charts of companies with large BTC reserves turned into a textbook on what 'paper profit' is. What just recently looked like hundreds of millions in profit on the balance sheet, within a few weeks of downturns turns into hundreds of millions of unrealized losses. And the market instantly changes its optics: companies that were recently praised for their 'bold strategy of digital gold on the balance sheet' begin to be portrayed as potential bankrupts. But essentially, we see not magic, but ordinary mathematics: when the value of a key asset on the treasury account is tied to a volatile market, reporting turns into a cardiogram of the bitcoin price.

Coinbase, the largest trading exchange in the U.S. by trading volume, expects the cryptocurrency market to enter a recovery phase as early as December. The main prerequisites for this are an increase in liquidity and a weakening of price pressure from long-term holders $BTC .
On December 5, the American trading platform announced a shift in market conditions in recent weeks. Exchange experts point to an influx of new capital, narrowing spreads, and increased macroeconomic support as key indicators.

The course $BTC continues to consolidate under the influence of a downward trend that has persisted for a month. The asset is unable to overcome key resistance levels. The trajectory of Bitcoin remains unclear. The situation is complicated by the lack of clear support from macro-financial markets.

On December 6, two inactive Casascius coins with a value of 1000 $BTC each, which had been dormant for over 13 years, were activated. The value of the unlocked cryptocurrency amounted to approximately $180 million.
In 2011, American entrepreneur Mike Caldwell began minting physical coins and bars called Casascius with denominations of 1, 10, 25, 100, and 1000 BTC. Each piece contained a secured holographic sticker with a private key on paper.

The stability of Strategy's balance and the company's ability to avoid selling the first cryptocurrency are more significant for the short-term price of the asset than the pressure from miners. This conclusion was reached by analysts at JPMorgan, reports The Block.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted two main factors putting pressure on Bitcoin quotes:

According to Fink, the crypto market is currently skewed and excessively leveraged, leading to sharp price spikes of the first cryptocurrency. Despite the fluctuations in quotes, investor fear supports $BTC , according to the CEO of BlackRock.
“Bitcoin has now become a safeguard against three critical systemic risks — physical insecurity, financial instability, and currency devaluation. This aligns cryptocurrency with traditional safe-haven assets such as gold,” announced BlackRock's CEO Fink to the DealBook summit participants.

The structure of the bitcoin market in recent weeks resembles the first quarter of 2022: more than a quarter of the coins were purchased at prices above the current one, according to a report by Glassnode. Experts consider the key zone for restoring the market structure to be the range from $96,000 to $106,000 — the inability to hold at these levels increases the risk of further decline.

In 2011, Roger Ver — one of the first and most well-known evangelists of Bitcoin, an entrepreneur and investor, who was dubbed 'Bitcoin Jesus' in the crypto community — urged people to pay attention to digital assets. At that time, Bitcoin was worth about $10, and the idea that it would surpass gold, real estate, and the American stock market seemed bold and almost insane.

Since the beginning of December $BTC has risen by more than 10%. The market met this movement with noticeable enthusiasm: trader activity increased, sentiment became more confident, and trading volumes soared. According to participants' feelings, the market is coming back to life.
Analysts, however, are in no rush to support overall optimism and point out the discrepancy between the dynamics of the crypto market and the state of the economy.

From private to public
Bitcoin has undergone a long history of development from a project by a few enthusiasts to the largest and most secure PoW network in the world. In 2010, its hash rate surpassed the mark of 1 GH/s and continued to grow steadily. Currently, this figure is around 1 ZH/s, which approximately amounts to 20–25 GWh of energy consumption per day, costing between $800–1000 million.

The overall market structure increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which preceded a deep correction. This was stated by analysts at Glassnode.

The similarity confirms the cost quantile model, which tracks the entry price of the largest clusters of coins. Since mid-November, the price $BTC has fallen below the 0.75 quantile (around $96,100), resulting in about a quarter of the entire cryptocurrency supply being in the loss zone.

The crypto market is dominated by negative sentiment, said CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. The expert emphasized that without the influx of macroeconomic liquidity, the industry risks entering a prolonged downturn.

According to him, most on-chain indicators $BTC BTC point to a bearish scenario. The analyst supported his position with a metrics chart. The data demonstrates weakness in key areas:

The market is gradually shifting from discussions of growth to the more complex question of how deeply Bitcoin can retrace after the peak in 2025. Analysts provide a wide range of estimates: from harsh scenarios to very mild ones.
How much can Bitcoin crash in 2026?
Analyst @Macrobysunil gave the most severe forecast. He believes that by the end of 2026, $BTC could lose 70–80% of its value relative to gold and silver. In his model, precious metals will start to rise faster, while Bitcoin will lag behind amid a reversal of the global economic cycle.